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It’s a war between technology and a donkey‘ – how AI is shaking up Hollywood

Posted by hkarner - 17. Januar 2020

Date: 16‑01‑2020

Source: The Guardian Steve Rose

Subject: ‚It’s a war between technology and a donkey‘ – how AI is shaking up Hollywood

The film business used to run on hunches. Now, data analytics is far more effective than humans at predicting hits and eliminating flops. Is this a brave new world – or the death knell of creativity?

Cinelytics claims its AI, used by Warner Bros, can forecast box office results with 85% accuracy.

If Sunspring is anything to go by, artificial intelligence in film‑making has some way to go. This short film, made as an entry to Sci‑Fi London’s 48‑hour film‑making competition in 2016, was written entirely by an AI. The director, Oscar Sharp, fed a few hundred sci‑fi screenplays into a long short‑term memory recurrent neural network (the type of software behind predictive text in a smartphone), then told it to write its own. The result was almost, but not quite, incoherent nonsense, riddled with cryptic nonsequiturs, bizarre turns of phrase and unfathomable stage directions such as “he is standing in the stars and sitting on the floor”. All of which Sharp and his actors filmed with sincere commitment.

“In a future with mass unemployment, young people are forced to sell blood,” says a man in a shiny gold jacket. “You should see the boy and shut up. I was the one who was going to be a hundred years old,” replies a woman fiddling with some electronics. The man vomits up an eyeball. A second man says: “Well, I have to go to the skull.” And so forth. An unwitting viewer might be unsure whether they were watching meaningless nonsense or a lost Tarkovsky script.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=28&v=LY7x2Ihqjmc&feature=emb_logo

This isn’t how artificial intelligence is changing the movies – yet. But AI is changing the industry in other ways, to a greater extent than is being admitted. In early January, Warner Bros broke cover and announced it had signed up to an AI‑driven project management system that would “inform decision‑making around content and talent valuation to support release strategies”. In other words, Warners will be using AI to help it decide what movies to make.

The system in question was launched last year by Cinelytic, a Los Angeles‑based startup. Other clients listed on its website include Sony Pictures, Ingenious Media and STX Entertainment (the studio behind Hustlers and Playmobil: The Movie). Meanwhile, 20th Century Fox has partnered with Google to develop its own AI, named Merlin, which predicts audiences based on analysis of patterns and objects in movie trailers. Other new companies have also entered the AI game in the past few years, including Belgium‑based ScriptBook and Israel’s Vault AI.

You can see the appeal, especially for a studio like Warner Bros. As well as putting out hits such as Joker and A Star Is Born, it has had its share of box‑office flops, such as King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, The Kitchen, Shaft and The Goldfinch. These projects must have looked like hits on paper. How to tell the difference? Traditionally, Hollywood almost prides itself on its own unpredictability, accepting as a given William Goldman’s adage “no one knows anything”. It is an industry that carries out extensive analysis, research and audience testing, but that still relies to a large extent on human intuition and gut instinct. It is also an industry where the majority of films made are never released, and less than half of those that are make their money back.

Can the machines do better? Absolutely, says Cinelytic, which claims an accuracy of 85% in its box office forecasting. Cinelytic was founded in 2015 by Tobias Queisser, whose background is in finance and film producing. His co‑founder, Dev Sen, is a rocket scientist who developed risk assessment software for Nasa. Cinelytic claims to have crunched data from more than 95,000 movies and 500,000 actors and professionals, but its chief selling point is that it can make forecasts in real time – expressed as percentage probabilities of certain levels of success. With its user‑friendly interface, clients can play with the variables and assess the impact on box office right away.

Let’s make an action comedy starring Dwayne Johnson, say. It will be huge! But what if Johnson is not available? How would it look if you cast Gerard Butler instead? Not so huge, perhaps, but the budget might also be lower. How would it do if you released it over 1,000 screens, or 3,000? How would it do in Brazil or China? In effect, Cinelytic’s AI treats the movie industry like fantasy football, assigning quantitative scores to individuals, according to factors such as recent or past box‑office performance or social media profile.

Others take a slightly different approach. ScriptBook’s AI primarily analyses scripts, as opposed to actors or directors. “Most people believe that cast is everything, but we’ve learned that the story has the highest predictive value,” says Nadira Azermai, who founded the company in 2015. It doesn’t take a computer‑sized brain to think of a movie that had a stellar cast but still flopped. But a good story will succeed even without stars – and potentially more so with them, she says.

Within six minutes, ScriptBook’s AI reads a script and assigns it more than 400 parameters. “Anything that is information: emotion analysis, the journey for the protagonist and antagonist, whether the film will cater to a wide audience or niche audience, whether it follows a traditional three‑act structure, whether the action happens in the most important places.” As more information becomes available, such as the cast, the prediction becomes more accurate, but if the computer says no to begin with, no additional information will change it to a yes.

ScriptBook’s success rates are comparable to those of Cinelytic: 83% to 86%, Azermai claims, whereas human decision‑making is successful 27% to 31% of the time. In a retroactive study of Sony’s output between 2015 and 2017, for example, it successfully identified 22 out of its 32 releases that lost money. It could have saved the company a fortune. It has achieved similar levels of accuracy with movies before they were released, even predicting the success of unconventional outliers such as Get Out, La La Land and A Quiet Place. Azermai is not yet at liberty to reveal which companies ScriptBook has been working with, but she applauds Warners’ announcement that it is working with Cinelytic. “It is an important message, because the majority of companies are still treating AI as a dirty little secret.”

One of the factors driving the AI revolution is undoubtedly Netflix, which, by its spectacular ascent over the past decade, has awakened the entertainment industry to the awesome power of data. Netflix has valued its “recommendations” algorithms (which suggest to viewers what to watch next) at $1bn (£760m) a year in terms of keeping subscribers engaged. The company is notoriously secretive about its methods, but it is safe to assume it is tracking viewers’ every move: what they watch, how long they watch it, what time of day it is, what they watch next, how many hits a new show receives in its first day, and so on. Because Netflix also streams other people’s content, it is even better informed when it comes to producing its own. The studio’s staggering output (Netflix put out 700 original TV shows and 80 features in 2018) would not be possible without AI assistance. As a result of Netflix’s success, tech companies such as Apple and Amazon are getting into content creation and giving the old‑school studios a run for their money.

“All of a sudden you have this conservative, traditional industry versus companies who are believers in data,” says Azermai. “There is a war on content, but one party is using the latest technology and the other is riding a donkey.”

The AI revolution will clearly benefit film‑makers, but what is in it for us viewers? One potential drawback is that AI eliminates not only financial risk but creative risk, too. The fear is, if you fed in a vaguely challenging or experimental or atypical project into the machine – say Mulholland Drive or Under the Skin – the algorithm would discourage you from taking the gamble. Why not do a Dwayne Johnson action comedy instead?

Added to which, the data these algorithms are processing are actually human beings, who are inherently erratic, fallible and unpredictable. Your asset might go into rehab, get divorced or decide to go off and make shoes for a year. In 1996 Robert Downey Jr was arrested driving his Porsche naked through Los Angeles throwing imaginary rats out of the window. What algorithm would have recommended casting him as Iron Man?

“Already we’re seeing that we’re getting more and more remakes and sequels because that’s safe, rather than something that’s out of the box,” says Tabitha Goldstaub, a tech entrepreneur and commentator who specialises in artificial intelligence. Her work has raised deeper concerns about AI. Far from being a dispassionate tool, it often reflects the biases and prejudices of its creators, she says. “A lot of people think it’s maths so it can’t be biased, whereas in fact it’s completely the opposite way around: it’s maths, and therefore it’s data, and whatever data you feed a machine will have bias in it. The world is biased, and so these machines exacerbate our own biases.”

She points to the fact that no women have been nominated for best director at this year’s Oscars, and only five women have ever been nominated. The AI might well conclude that if you want to make an Oscar‑winning movie, don’t hire a female director. “You can’t help but think: do you really want to leave these people in charge of creating an algorithm that predicts the next hits? It’s quite scary.”

But there are signs that AI could help reduce bias. The producer Todd Garner cited an example on his Producer’s Guide podcast recently. Garner’s company produced the Marlon Wayans comedies White Chicks and Little Man, and did very well out of them. But when it took a new Wayans project to traditional studios and financiers, nobody bit, he says. “Because there was no way, they thought, that this movie would play internationally … so it’s a purely domestic play [a US‑only release]. Netflix came in and scooped it up immediately, gave us a lot more money to make the movie and the movie was huge for their site. Because Netflix had hosted White Chicks and other Wayans movies on their site, they knew that Marlon Wayans has a worldwide audience. If you don’t have that data, your instinct is, well, African American movies don’t play overseas, period.”

Now that AI is here, there is also the question of how much further it will infiltrate film‑making. Screenwriting, for example. Things have moved on since Sunspring in 2016. Last year, Kevin Macdonald directed a one‑minute advert for Lexus entirely written by an AI – that had been trained on 15 years’ worth of luxury ads.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=60&v=OxyHuJSM_jI&feature=emb_logo

As well as analytical tools, ScriptBook is developing a screenwriting AI, which it has given the dystopian sci‑fi thriller name of Deepstory. “It really is a co‑creator,” says Azermai, reassuringly. “We envision a next‑generation writers’ room where whenever they don’t know where to head to for the next scene, they would have Deepstory create it. The engine takes into account everything that you’ve written, and it will deliver you the next scene, or the next 10 pages, or write it to the end.” Azermai admits Deepstory still has much to learn. “The consistency in writing stays for another 10 pages and then the AI becomes a bit crazy – sometimes it kills the protagonist for some reason – but it’s improving. Within five years we’ll have scripts written by AI that you would think are better than human writing.”

The movies themselves have trained us to be suspicious of AIs. They make terrible substitute children (Spielberg’s AI), and even worse romantic partners (Spike Jonze’s Her). They often decide humans are expendable and take over (Kubrick’s 2001) or they enslave us in some futuristic dystopia (Terminator, The Matrix). Could it be that by embracing AI, Hollywood is unwittingly building an equivalent of the Terminator movies’ Skynet? Or, in a slightly less apocalyptic scenario, are we looking at a future where movies are personally tailored to individual viewers? Might we be approaching a sort of Turing test for machine‑written fiction? Maybe we have passed it already and we just don’t know it yet. Sounds like a plot for a great, metatextual Hollywood conspiracy thriller. If we got Dwayne Johnson it could be a smash. Let’s crunch some numbers!

 

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The Fourth Founding: The United States and the Liberal Order

Posted by hkarner - 13. Dezember 2018

Date: 12-12-2018
Source: Foreign Affairs By Gideon Rose

The United States began as a radical experiment with grandiose ambitions. Its founders believed in Locke’s idea that free individuals could escape the perils of anarchy by joining together and cooperating for mutual benefit—and they created a country to show it wasn’t just talk. The signers of the Declaration of Independence bound themselves in a common political project, establishing a limited government to secure their rights and advance their interests. That act, noted Secretary of State John Quincy Adams in 1821, “was the first solemn declaration by a nation of the only legitimate foundation of civil government. It was the corner stone of a new fabric, destined to cover the surface of the globe.”

From the start, the United States was understood to be both country and cause, a distinct national community and the standard-bearer of a global political revolution. Destiny would take a long time to play out. Until it did, until the surface of the globe was covered with a fabric of democratic republics, the good new country would have to survive in the bad old international system. “Probably for centuries to come,” Adams guessed. So how should the nation behave during the lengthy transition? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Mathew D. Rose – Germany’s Social Democrats did the right thing: committed political suicide

Posted by hkarner - 7. März 2018

Sometimes historical events occur and no one really notices. The decision of the German social democrats to once again enter a grand coalition heralds the end of a political party with a history of over 150 years. But no one really cares, anyway. With its pact with neo-liberalism it lost its soul.

Mathew D. Rose is an Investigative Journalist specialised in Organised Political Crime and an editor of BRAVE NEW EUROPE.

As I participated in my first political demonstration in Germany in 1979 – against nuclear energy – the chant I learned was “Wer hat uns verraten? Die Sozialdemokraten” (Who betrayed us? The Social Democrats). This harks back to 1914 as the then left-wing Social Democratic Party (SPD) voted to support Germany’s entry into the first world war. Betraying its voters is what the SPD has been doing ever since – except maybe during the chancellorship of Willy Brandt (1969 to 1974).

While the SPD portrays itself as a centre-left party, at least when elections occur, it is rabidly neo-liberal. The SPD has been in decline since Gerhard Schröder was elected chancellor in 1998 and, together with the Greens, smashed the social market economy. Like Tony Blair and Bill Clinton he realised that neo-liberalism was the ideology to bet on. He was – and will probably remain – the last Social Democratic chancellor of Germany.  Schröder and many of his fellow cabinet and junior ministers from the SPD and the Greens went on to become well-paid lobbyists for international corporations. Schröder himself works for Nord Stream (a German Russian gas pipeline company) and Rosneft (a state-owned Russian oil company). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Andrew Dowling – ‘Winter is Here’. The Growing Erosion of Civil Rights in Spain

Posted by hkarner - 2. März 2018

Thanks to Matthew Rose, the Editor of „Brave New Europe“ for the generosity of letting us cross-post their articles and for his mindfulness (hfk)

The Catalan crisis has now taken hold of Spanish national politics. What once seemed a regional conflict has exposed cracks in Spain’s democratic facade.

Andrew Dowling, Senior Lecturer in Catalan and Spanish History at Cardiff University. He is the author of ‘The Rise of Catalan Independence. Spain’s Territorial Crisis’ (Routledge)

The Catalan crisis that grew over the autumn of 2017 has now spread, implicating other areas of the Spanish state. Although the Spanish authorities have obtained a clear victory over the forces of Catalan independence, and have contained the challenge, this has been achieved at a high price. The increasing politicisation of the major institutions of the state is eroding the democratic patina of Spain. Europeanisation and embedding democracy were once the main strategic objectives of Spain after the death of Franco in 1975. For most of the period since then, the country gradually achieved both but the economic crisis since 2008 placed the main institutions of the country under severe strain. Yet, by the general election of June 2016, with the failure of democratic renewal led by Podemos to breakthrough, and the return to power of Spain’s conservatives, the Partido Popular, it seemed the state had managed to successfully resist the call for meaningful reform and change. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Germany and the loss of political trust

Posted by hkarner - 9. Januar 2018

Mathew D. Rose – 

Mathew D. Rose is an Investigative Journalist specialised in Organised Political Crime and an editor of BRAVE NEW EUROPE.

Just a year ago corporate media was hailing German Chancellor Angela Merkel as the new leader of the Western democracies. That they were grasping at such a decayed straw proves the seriousness of the political crisis we are in. Neo-liberalism does not need political leaders, just political enforcers. Angela Merkel is no longer fit for purpose, something that anyone could see coming for years now, just not the corporate media.

Although nearly four months have passed since the national election, Germany still hasn’t formed a government. The Dutch, with their complicated coalition process, may find this normal, but for Germans it certainly isn’t. Initially it seemed feasible that chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian partner Christian Social Union (CSU) could form a coalition with the Liberals (FDP) and the Greens. After these talks collapsed, German mainstream media, proclaimed that Germany’s political system looks more like Greece’s or Italy’s. In Germany a more vitriolic insult does not exist. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Government intervention reduces banking globalisation

Posted by hkarner - 6. April 2016

Anya Kleymenova, Andrew K Rose, Tomasz Wieladek 05 April 2016, voxeu

Following the Global Crisis of 2007-2009, cross-border bank lending has slowed significantly, and non-bank intermediation has risen to fill this gap. This column presents evidence that government intervention has trimmed the global activities of banks along three dimensions:  depth, breadth, and persistence. This suggest that bank nationalisation is associated with financial protectionism and reduces financial globalisation.

International financial intermediation has changed significantly since the 2007-2009 Global Crisis – portfolio flows have taken up the slack left by the collapse in bank lending (BIS 2014).

Several reasons have been proposed for this development, including:

  • A rise in bank regulation;
  • Weakness in loan demand; and
  • Political interference in banking as a result of government intervention.1  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A ranking of financial economists by centrality

Posted by hkarner - 18. Januar 2016

Co-Pierre Georg, Michael E. Rose 16 January 2016, voxeu

Senior Lecturer at the African Institute of Financial Markets and Risk Management, University of Cape Town; Research Economist, Deutsche Bundesbank

PhD student at the African Institute of Financial Markets and Risk Management, University of Cape Town

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Soft power raises exports

Posted by hkarner - 1. September 2015

Andrew K Rose 01 September 2015, voxeu

Andrew K Rose

Professor of International Business, in the Economic Analysis and Policy Group, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley; and Research Fellow, CEPR

Whereas hard power – the ability to coerce – grows out of a country’s military or economic might, soft power arises from the attractiveness of a country’s culture, political ideals, and policies. It is by no means under government control. Nye considers hard power to stem from a country’s population, resources, economic and military strength, and the like. By way of contrast “[s]oft power is … the ability to attract, [since] attraction often leads to acquiescence … soft power uses a different type of currency (not force, not money) to engender cooperation – an attraction to shared values …” (Nye 2004: 6-7).1 Nye thinks of this as “…the ability of a country to structure a situation so that other countries develop preferences … consistent with their own” (Nye 1990: 168) Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Mathew D. Rose: The Crisis In Europe Has Only Just Begun

Posted by hkarner - 24. Juli 2015

Posted on July 24, 2015 by

By Mathew D. Rose, a freelance journalist in Berlin

Five months ago I attempted to explain why the conflict between Germany and Greece was destined culminate as it has:

Following the recent elections in Greece, Germany and its EU compradors are making it clear who is in charge. The Germans are currently not offering any compromise, but iterate the same blunt demand: Greece has to accept what is being dictated; in other words, capitulate or be annihilated. This time it will not be the Wehrmacht und Luftwaffe that are to force the Greek nation into submission, but a weapon just as lethal: national bankruptcy.

This conflict has nothing to do with Greek debt or finances. Syriza’s strategy was based upon the rational assumption that the nation’s debt and recovery are being stifled by austerity. As we know from most any respected economist, Greece’s debt can never and will never be repaid. On the continent that prides itself as the cradle of the enlightenment, there should have been an amicable, lasting solution to Greece’s untenable financial situation. Greece has had to learn the hard way, that the EU is no longer a European project for peace, democracy and prosperity, but a German tool for hegemony.

This has been a conflict between a small European nation, led by a leftist government, attempting to reassert its autonomy under crushing German predominance. That may sound simplistic, but there is not much more to it. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Jeremy Grantham on Charlie Rose

Posted by hkarner - 19. März 2013

Grantham on RoseGrant Williams, 18/3

Jeremy Grantham is one of my idols, and his recent appearance on Charlie Rose was breathtaking.

Jeremy’s grasp of the world he inhabits is second to none, and the clarity with which he can explain difficult concepts is incredible.

Please watch this video and share it with as many people as you can.

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