Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Rogoff’

Giddy Markets and Grim Politics

Posted by hkarner - 9. Januar 2018

Economists have endless debates about whether culture or institutions lie at the root of economic performance. But there is every reason to be concerned that the recent wave of populism is a threat to both.

CAMBRIDGE – Economic growth worldwide picked up in 2017, and the best guess is that the global economy will perform strongly in 2018 as well. At the same time, a rising tide of populism and authoritarianism poses a risk to the stable democratic institutions that underlie long-term growth. And yet headlines seeming to portend political instability and chaos have not prevented stock markets from soaring. What gives?

First, the good news. Surely the largest single factor in the synchronized global upswing is that the world economy is finally leaving behind the long shadow of the 2008 financial crisis. Part of today’s good fortune is payback for years of weak demand. And the rebound is not over, with business investment finally picking up after a decade of slack, thereby laying a foundation for faster growth and higher productivity gains in the future. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Krypto-Narrengold: Was Spitzenökonom Rogoff von Bitcoin hält

Posted by hkarner - 25. Dezember 2017

Kolumne Kenneth Rogoff 24. Dezember 2017, 13:00, derstandard.at

Ist Bitcoin eine Blase oder großartige Investition? Kenneth Rogoff glaubt, dass die Aufseher noch mitentscheiden werden

Der Bitcoin-Preis ist im Laufe der vergangen zwölf Monate um rund 1600 Prozent gestiegen, in den vergangenen 24 Monaten um rund 3200 Prozent. Im Dezember hatte Bitcoin mit fast 20.000 Dollar ein neues Hoch markiert. Nach einem kürzlich erfolgten rapiden Verfall steht die Währung aktuell bei 14.864 US-Dollar (Stand: 24. Dezember). Damit ist eine einzige Einheit der virtuellen Währung knapp zwölfmal so viel wert wie eine Feinunze Gold. Was mit Bitcoin passiert, wird davon abhängen, wie die Regierungen reagieren. Werden sie anonyme Zahlungssysteme akzeptieren, die Steuerhinterziehung und Verbrechen erleichtern? Werden sie eigene digitale Währungen einführen? Eine wichtige Frage ist auch, wie erfolgreich die mit Bitcoin konkurrierenden „Altcoin“-Währungen den Markt durchdringen können. Im Prinzip ist es kinderleicht, die Bitcoin-Technologie zu klonen oder zu verbessern. Nicht so einfach ist es, den Glaubwürdigkeitsvorsprung und das große Anwendungsumfeld von Bitcoin zu kopieren.

Warten auf die Aufseher

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The US Is Exporting Obesity

Posted by hkarner - 3. Dezember 2017

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, his new book, The Curse of Cash, was released in August 2016.

Left unchecked, rapidly rising obesity rates could slow or even reverse the dramatic gains in health and life expectancy that much of the world has enjoyed over the past few decades. And by forcing its food culture on countries like Mexico and Canada, the US is making the problem worse.

CAMBRIDGE – As US President Donald Trump’s administration throws sharp elbows in trade negotiations and systematically rescinds regulations introduced by President Barack Obama, one casualty is likely to be efforts to fight the global obesity epidemic. Left unchecked, rapidly rising obesity rates could slow or even reverse the dramatic gains in health and life expectancy that much of the world has enjoyed over the past few decades. And by forcing its food culture on countries like Mexico and Canada, the United States is making the problem worse. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Donald Trump’s Federal Reserve

Posted by hkarner - 4. November 2017

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, his new book, The Curse of Cash, was released in August 2016.

Jerome Powell, US President Donald Trump’s pick to succeed Janet Yellen as Fed Chair, will face some extraordinary challenges at the outset of his five-year term. But the greatest challenge of all will be to stay out of Trump’s shadow and uphold the Fed’s independence.

CAMBRIDGE – With the appointment of Jerome Powell as the next Chair of the United States Federal Reserve Board, Donald Trump has made perhaps the most important single decision of his presidency. It is a sane and sober choice that heralds short-term continuity in Fed interest-rate policy, and perhaps a simpler and cleaner approach to regulatory policy.

Although Powell is not a PhD economist like current Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, he has used his years as an “ordinary” governor at the Fed to gain a deep knowledge of the key issues he will face. But make no mistake: the institution Powell will now head rules the global financial system. All other central bankers, finance ministers, and even presidents run a distant second. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump’s 3% Growth for the 1%

Posted by hkarner - 13. September 2017

Kenneth Rogoff

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, his new book, The Curse of Cash, was released in August 2016.

Even if US President Donald Trump hits his growth targets in 2018 and 2019 – and he just might – only the stock market may be cheering. Policies that produced more broadly shared and environmentally sustainable growth would be far better than policies that perpetuate current distributional trends and exacerbate many Americans’ woes.

CAMBRIDGE – US President Donald Trump has boasted that his policies will produce sustained 3-4% growth for many years to come. His prediction flies in the face of the judgment of many professional forecasters, including on Wall Street and at the Federal Reserve, who expect that the US will be lucky to achieve even 2% growth. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Protectionism Will Not Protect Jobs Anywhere

Posted by hkarner - 3. August 2017

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Shaking Russia’s Weak Economic Hand

Posted by hkarner - 6. Juli 2017

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The Eurozone Must Reform or Die

Posted by hkarner - 15. Juni 2017

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Another crisis one day cannot be ruled out

Posted by hkarner - 7. Mai 2017

Date: 04-05-2017
Source: The Economist

But recent changes have hade it less likely

IN 1992 SWEDEN nationalised (and subsequently merged) two banks: Gota Bank and Nordbanken, which was already mostly owned by the state. As in America 15 years later, property prices had first boomed and then plunged, bringing banks down with them. In 2001 Nordbanken was combined with Danish, Norwegian and Finnish lenders to create Nordea, the region’s biggest bank. It was not until September 2013 that the Swedish government sold its last shares in Nordea, finally drawing a line under a crisis by then 20 years in the past.

Banking crises leave deep and lasting scars on economies and societies. The one of 2007-08 was the biggest and worst since the 1930s, so the recovery was bound to take time. In a study published in 2014 of 100 financial crises going back to the 1890s, Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, two Harvard economists, found that real income per person took an average of eight years to return to pre-crisis levels. They identified 12 countries where systemic crises began in 2007-08, of which seven have so far clambered back at least to their starting-point. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why Did Trump Accept Venezuela’s Money?

Posted by hkarner - 5. Mai 2017

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