Posted by hkarner - 25. April 2017
Source: The Guardian
Robotics and artificial intelligence will continue to improve – but without political change such as a tax, the outcome will range from bad to apocalyptic
Instead of making it possible to create more wealth with less labor, automation might make it possible to create more wealth without labor.
Should robots pay taxes?
It may sound strange, but a number of prominent people have been asking this question lately. As fears about the impact of automation grow, calls for a “robot tax” are gaining momentum. Earlier this month, the European parliament considered one for the EU. Benoît Hamon, the French Socialist party presidential candidate who is often described as his country’s Bernie Sanders, has put a robot tax in his platform. Even Bill Gates recently endorsed the idea. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: AI, Guardian, Inequality, Robot Tax, Robotics, Technology | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 21. April 2017
At a community college in upstate New York, 12 cafeteria workers recently learned that they will lose their jobs — and be replaced by self-serve machines. It’s an issue that has played out in communities across the country, as robots get better and better at doing jobs — from taking fast food orders to mining coal — that once belonged to humans.
Is your job next? The answer to that question is complicated, according to a report by management consultant McKinsey, but most workers don’t need to worry. Experts found that less than 5% of jobs can be completely replaced by technology, though nearly every job involves tasks that robots could learn to do.
Enter your occupation below to see how much of your work may someday be done by machines.
Jobs with predictable activities in structured environments are the easiest to replicate with robots, a process known as automation. McKinsey estimates that 51% of all job-related activities in the U.S. economy fit this description, largely in manufacturing, food service and retail trade sectors. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Jobs, McKinsey, Robotics, Technology, Time | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 9. März 2017
FURCHE-Kolumne 210 9. März 2017, Wilfried Stadler
Eine der vielen Fragen, über die sich Ökonomen nicht einig werden können, ist die nach den Folgen des Vordringens von Robotern und der Digitalisierung für die Beschäftigung. Während die einen steigende Arbeitslosigkeit erwarten, sehen andere nur einen weiteren jener Technologiesprünge, die zwar zunächst Verluste von Arbeitsplätzen in bisher ausgeübten, traditionellen Tätigkeiten nach sich ziehen, dafür aber in anderen, bisher unbekannten Bereichen ganz neue Erwerbsmöglichkeiten eröffnen.
Die Sorge, dass unser Gesellschaft die Arbeit ausgehen könnte, begleitet uns jedenfalls, seit es technischen Fortschritt gibt. Auf einen eindrücklichen Beleg dafür stieß ich vor kurzem ganz zufällig bei der Lektüre des Programmheftes zur Oper „Peer Gynt“ im Theater an der Wien. Dort fand sich das folgende Zitat von Hannah Arendt aus ihrem 1960 veröffentlichten Hauptwerk „Vita Activa oder Das tätige Leben“: Was uns bevorsteht, ist die Aussicht auf eine Arbeitsgesellschaft, der die Arbeit ausgegangen ist, also die einzige Tätigkeit, auf die sie sich noch versteht. Was könnte verhängnisvoller sein? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Automation, Furche, Robot Tax, Robotics, Stadler | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 8. März 2017
Source: The Economist
THE future looks increasingly perilous for the human worker. New robots are no longer flummoxed by staircases and doorknobs; clever software is capable of driving cars and carrying on (rudimentary) conversations. While a workless world remains a distant possibility, a period of automation-driven disruption seems to loom ahead. Many futurists reckon that as machines replace people, governments will need to find ways to redistribute income from the machines (and the people who own them) to displaced workers, to ensure that the benefits of automation-driven growth are shared widely. In a recent interview Bill Gates proposed one method for doing this: a tax on robots, the money from which could be used to retrain workers and expand employment in health care and education. But is this the right response?
Mr Gates’s proposal would solve several problems at once. In addition to raising money (which could be used to fund new employment opportunities for people) the tax would probably slow the pace of automation: a good thing, from Mr Gates’s perspective. Economists typically dislike taxes on such investments, since buying and using new equipment raises productivity and growth. But if the pace of automation is too rapid for society to handle, as Mr Gates supposes, then slowing automation could do more good than harm: by prolonging employment for workers who might otherwise fall into long-term unemployment, for instance. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Economist, Gates, Robot Tax, Robotics | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 3. März 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Futuristic forecast spurs investment wave from Japanese telecom company
SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son
BARCELONA—Within 30 years, artificial intelligence will be smarter than the human brain.
That is according to Masayoshi Son, chief executive of SoftBank Group Corp., who says that supersmart robots will outnumber humans and more than a trillion objects will be connected to the internet within three decades.
These beliefs underpin the wave of large and surprising deals the Japanese internet and telecommunications company has pulled off in the past year, he said Monday. These include starting a $100 billion technology-investment fund with a Saudi sovereign-wealth fund, buying British microprocessor designer ARM Holdings PLC for $32 billion and acquiring U.S. asset manager Fortress Investment Group PLC for $3.3 billion.
This 30-year forecast created urgency, Mr. Son said in a speech at the telecom industry’s biggest trade show, Mobile World Congress. “That is why I’m in a hurry to aggregate cash to invest.”
In a brief interview after his speech, Mr. Son said his $100 billion project with the Saudis, dubbed the SoftBank Vision Fund, was bigger than the $65 billion in combined investments from the venture-capital world. He said the SoftBank Vision Fund would be focused. “Artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, smart robots: Those are the three main things I’m interested in,” he said. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: AI, ARM, Japan, Robotics, Softbank, Son, Technology, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 22. Februar 2017
Source: The New York Times
Defenders of globalization are on solid ground when they criticize President Trump’s threats of punitive tariffs and border walls. The economy can’t flourish without trade and immigrants.
But many of those defenders have their own dubious explanation for the economic disruption that helped to fuel the rise of Mr. Trump.
At a recent global forum in Dubai, Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, said some of the economic pain ascribed to globalization was instead due to the rise of robots taking jobs. In his farewell address in January, President Barack Obama warned that “the next wave of economic dislocations won’t come from overseas. It will come from the relentless pace of automation that makes a lot of good middle-class jobs obsolete.”
Blaming robots, though, while not as dangerous as protectionism and xenophobia, is also a distraction from real problems and real solutions. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Automation, Investment, Lagarde, NYT, Productivity, Robotics, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 17. Januar 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Jobs will change, forcing workers to adapt and global productivity will rise
Automation could increase global productivity by 0.8% to 1.4% annually over the next 50 years, according to a new study.
As business and political leaders gather this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, several new reports that shed light on automation and the future of work are being released at the event. For those staying home from Switzerland this year, here’s an overview of notable findings.
Despite claims that robots are coming for our jobs, only 5% of all occupations are at risk of being entirely automated, according to a new report from the McKinsey Global Institute.
Rather than disappearing, the report’s authors say, jobs will change dramatically, forcing workers to adapt. McKinsey’s analysis of 800 occupations and 2,000 job tasks predicts that half of workers’ current tasks could be automated by the year 2055 using technology that currently exists. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Automation, MGI, Robotics, Technology, WEF, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 15. Januar 2017
Source: The New York Times
Testing a manned, walking robot, Method-2, in Gunpo, South Korea, last month.
The robots are coming, but the march of automation will displace jobs more gradually than some alarming forecasts suggest.
A measured pace is likely because what is technically possible is only one factor in determining how quickly new technology is adopted, according to a new study by the McKinsey Global Institute. Other crucial ingredients include economics, labor markets, regulations and social attitudes.
The report, which was released Thursday, breaks jobs down by work tasks — more than 2,000 activities across 800 occupations, from stock clerk to company boss. The institute, the research arm of the consulting firm McKinsey & Company, concludes that many tasks can be automated and that most jobs have activities ripe for automation. But the near-term impact, the report says, will be to transform work more than to eliminate jobs.
Globally, the McKinsey researchers calculated that 49 percent of time spent on work activities could be automated with “currently demonstrated technology” either already in the marketplace or being developed in labs. That, the report says, translates into $15.8 trillion in wages and the equivalent of 1.1 billion workers worldwide. But only 5 percent of jobs can be entirely automated. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Manufacturing, MGI, NYT, Robotics, Technology | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 20. Dezember 2016
To properly understand globalization, you need to start 200,000 years ago.
Richard Baldwin skillfully takes on this daunting task in a new book, starting all the way back with the hunter-gatherers. For too long, he says, traditional analysis of trade has been too narrow, he argues.
The economist, who is a professor at the Graduate Institute in Geneva and president of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) in London, has been researching globalization and trade for 30 years. As anti-globalization forces now sweep across the world, The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalization (Harvard University Press) is well timed.
Baldwin argues that globalization takes shape in three distinct stages: the ability to move goods, then ideas, and finally people. Since the early 19th century, the cost of the first two has fallen dramatically, spurring the surge in international trade that is now a feature of the modern global economy.
The standard line from politicians in recent times is that everyone wins from globalization. But the backlash from low-skilled workers who lost their jobs to cheaper labor abroad has forced a change in tone.
Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, gave a candid speech on globalization in northwest England this week, where unemployment is among the highest in the country. He said: Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel, Books | Verschlagwortet mit: Baldwin, Carney, CEPR, Globalization, QZ, Robotics, Technology, Telepresence, Trump | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 17. Dezember 2016
STORRS, CONNECTICUT – The prospect of artificial intelligence (AI) has long been a source of knotty ethical questions. But the focus has often been on how we, the creators, can and should use advanced robots. What is missing from the discussion is the need to develop a set of ethics for the machines themselves, together with a means for machines to resolve ethical dilemmas as they arise. Only then can intelligent machines function autonomously, making ethical choices as they fulfill their tasks, without human intervention.
There are many activities that we would like to be able to turn over entirely to autonomously functioning machines. Robots can do jobs that are highly dangerous or exceedingly unpleasant. They can fill gaps in the labor market. And they can perform extremely repetitive or detail-oriented tasks – which are better suited to robots than humans.
But no one would be comfortable with machines acting independently, with no ethical framework to guide them. (Hollywood has done a pretty good job of highlighting those risks over the years.) That is why we need to train robots to identify and weigh a given situation’s ethically relevant features (for example, those that indicate potential benefits or harm to a person). And we need to instill in them the duty to act appropriately (to maximize benefits and minimize harm). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: AI, Anderson, Ethics, Project Syndicate, Robotics, Technology | Leave a Comment »