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Posts Tagged ‘Referendum’

From Brexit to Breferendum

Posted by hkarner - 24. Juli 2018

Yes. I agree. This has always been my opinion! (hfk)

Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0, The Birth of a New Economy, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.

The consequences of the Brexit self-delusion are now becoming obvious, as Britain’s government finds itself unable to get a parliamentary majority for any realistic plan to leave the EU. If this situation persists, Britain will have only one alternative: another referendum to reconsider the impossible result of the 2016 vote.

LONDON – If something is impossible, it does not happen. If a country votes to make two plus two equal five, this “democratic decision” will eventually be overridden by the rules of arithmetic, no matter how large the majority or how loudly “The People have spoken.” This is the story now playing out in Britain as Theresa May’s government stumbles toward the final act of the Brexit tragi-comedy.

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Turkey’s Referendum Could Backfire on Erdogan

Posted by hkarner - 24. März 2017

Date: 24-03-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The stakes are high—and outcome uncertain—for vote on enhanced powers for the presidency

ISTANBUL—Appearances can deceive.

Only one campaign is in sight less than a month before the April 16 referendum that would give Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vast new powers.

Building-size billboards feature a giant likeness of Mr. Erdogan urging the nation to vote “Yes.” On TV networks, government officials brand those opposing this executive presidency plan as traitors or supporters of terrorism. Finding any evidence of the “No” campaign can be mission impossible.

And yet, despite such a charged environment, a referendum victory for Mr. Erdogan looks surprisingly uncertain. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italian Referendum: “Small choice in rotten apples”

Posted by hkarner - 13. Dezember 2016

Thanks to H.F.

“Small choice in rotten apples”

(Taming of the Screw 1.1)

The Italians said “no” in the recent referendum. Its main objective was to reform the Italian Constitution, strengthen the authority of the government and reduce the power of the electorate at large to influence political outcomes.

“ …and wonder greatly that man’s face can fold
In pleasing smiles such murderous tyranny.”

Unskilled in political autopsies, I will not discuss details amply elucidated elsewhere, in the mainstream and alternative media.

But ever prone to scour the useless in search for the irrelevant, I will talk about the 3 regions that voted ‘yes’ in the Referendum. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Rise of Anti-Establishment Italy

Posted by hkarner - 10. Dezember 2016

By on December 8, 2016  RGE EconoMonitorSteinbock

After the UK Brexit and the Trump triumph in the US, the rise of anti-establishment Italy is hardly a surprise. It is the effect of half a decade of failed austerity doctrines in Europe and decades of failed political consolidation in Italy – ever since the notorious Tangentopoli scandals.

While Italy’s constitutional referendum heralds a political earthquake that will eventually affect both France and Germany, the immediate result is more uncertainty in economy, political polarization and market volatility.

End of an era in Italy – and Europe

Only hours after Italians had casted their ballot in the referendum on constitutional reforms, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi announced his resignation after heavy defeat.

Renzi’s ‘Yes’ camp included most of his Democratic Party (DP) and centrist allies, and the tacit support of moderate voters, including some from Silvio Berlusconi’s Forward Italy (FI). In turn, the opposition lineup featured Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement (M5S), the regional Northern League (NL) led by Matteo Salvini in alliance with the far-right Brothers of italy’s (Fdl) and Berlusconi’s Forward Italy (FI), a significant minority of PD allies, a number of small leftist groups,

According to projections, almost 60% of voters rejected constitutional changes. “My government ends here,” said Renzi from Palazzo Chigi. Moments later, he acknowledged that his pledge to resign if defeated at the polls had been a mistake. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italy on the Brink

Posted by hkarner - 9. Dezember 2016

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Italy Just Handed the Global Economy Another Giant Variable

Posted by hkarner - 6. Dezember 2016

Date: 06-12-2016
Source: The New York Times

Global markets were not lacking in precarious unknowns. Italy just added another.

As voters on Sunday emphatically rejected constitutional changes aimed at streamlining government and making it easier to revive a moribund economy, they enhanced concerns that Italy’s banks could spiral into a disaster. They reinvigorated worries about the endurance of the euro currency and broader European economic integration. And they amplified the sense that Europe is a land of disappointing growth, political dysfunction and seething populism.

“Existential crisis” had not been on the ballot, but that was essentially the result. The lopsided tally against the reforms — nearly 60 percent rejected them — prompted the resignation of Italy’s prime minister, Matteo Renzi, leaving Europe’s fourth-largest economy without clear leadership.

As world markets absorbed the result, investors soured on Italian banking stocks. Shares in Monte dei Paschi di Siena, which was involved in Italy’s grandest banking fiasco, surrendered 4 percent on Monday on expectations that a private sector rescue devised by Mr. Renzi had been killed. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Die Italiener stimmten für eine Rückkehr in die Vergangenheit

Posted by hkarner - 6. Dezember 2016

05.12.2016 | 18:16 | Susanna Bastaroli (Die Presse)

Anti-Renzi-Wähler sagten Nein zum Wandel: Nach dem Verfassungsreferendum droht dem Land wieder die altbekannte „stabile Instabilität“.

Es ist ungewiss, wie es nach dem Verfassungsreferendum mit Italien, der Regierung, Matteo Renzi und dem Euro weitergeht. Sicher ist derzeit das eine: Die Italiener sagten am Sonntag ein mächtiges, lautstarkes Nein zu Veränderungen und Erneuerungen, und zwar in einer für Italien ungewohnten und unerwarteten Einstimmigkeit. Von Nord- bis Süditalien, quer durch soziale Schichten und Bildungsgrade, haben unerwartete 60Prozent den Renzi-Plänen zur Abschaffung des Zweikammersystems eine Abfuhr erteilt. Nahezu zwei Drittel der Wahlberechtigten gaben ihre Stimme ab – so hoch war die Beteiligung bei einer Volksabstimmung selten zuvor gewesen.

So viel Einsatz für die Rettung der zum Teil uralten, überbezahlten italienischen Senatoren? Nein. Worum es ging, das hatte Komiker-Politiker Beppe Grillo, der lauteste No-Kämpfer, deutlich gesagt. Seine Wahlempfehlung: Die Leute sollten „sich die Gesichter der Personen anschauen, die für Ja werben und dann Nein stimmen“. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Gut für Europa: Italien sagt Nein zu Korruption und Nepotismus

Posted by hkarner - 5. Dezember 2016

,  | 

Die Ablehnung des Referendums durch die italienischen Wähler ist ein Zeichen demokratischer Reife. Sie haben dem Plan, in Italien im Handstreich ein Mehrheitswahlrecht ohne wirksame Kontrolle einzuführen, eine klare Absage erteilt. Die Finanzmärkte, die ein solches System gerne gesehen hätten, dürfte die Italiener nun abstrafen – mit weitreichenden Folgen für die ganze EU.

Das Referendum über die von Ministerpräsident Renzi vorgeschlagene Verfassungsreform ist gescheitert, und zwar überaus deutlich. Renzi hat um Mitternacht die Konsequenzen gezogen und seine Demission für heute Montag angekündigt. Der Ausgang der Abstimmung und der Rücktritt Renzis werfen Italien in eine politische Krise im Moment einer schweren Bankenkrise.

Las man die Presse im Vorfeld, hätte man meinen können, dass diese Abstimmung über die Zukunft Italiens entscheiden wird. Das Argument, von Renzi selber vorgebracht, lautet, dass nur mit dieser Parlamentsreform die Möglichkeit rascher weiterer Reformen gegeben ist. Nur so könne Italien kompetitiv bleiben, seine strukturellen Defizite beheben und erfolgreich in der Eurozone und in Europa verbleiben. Deshalb hat Renzi wiederholt angedroht, als Ministerpräsident zurückzutreten, falls die Parlamentsreform an der Urne mit einem No zurückgewiesen würde. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italian Referendum: What to Expect?

Posted by hkarner - 3. Dezember 2016

by on December 2, 2016  RGE EconoMonitorpezzuto

So what went wrong?

Why did it happen?

Probably many analysts and economic commentators have concentrated their attention mainly on the media coverage “firepower” each candidate (USA presidential election) or supporters of the Yes/No vote (UK referendum) have been granted prior to the election or referendum, or on the astonishing financial contributions they received for their very aggressive political campaigns.

They have also probably expected that most people, faced with the perceived potential negative outcome of the election or referendum (at least from the perspective of most analysts and economists), and the high level uncertainty about the political consequences of a “Brexit” scenario or Donald Trump’s victory (i.e. more restrictions on immigrations policies, changes in the global trade policies, repeal of the Obamacare and Dodd-Franc Act’s, etc.), would have not dared to take a contrarian view or voting preference from the general propaganda of mainstream opinion leaders, political and leading financial institutions’ heavyweights, and elites. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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European Policy Makers Brace for Italian Stress

Posted by hkarner - 2. Dezember 2016

Date: 01-12-2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal By SIMON NIXON

What more can the European Central Bank do if the outcome leads to further volatility? In the short-term not much, Simon Nixon writes

After the Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump, the only thing anyone can say for certain is that nobody knows anything. A defeat for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi in this weekend’s Italian constitutional referendum could well be the spark that reignites the eurozone crisis, reviving doubts about the survival of the single currency. But neither Brexit nor Mr. Trump’s victory has so far led to the turmoil that many predicted, even though both caught markets by surprise.

In contrast, a “no” vote in Italy on Sunday would come as no surprise at all. This referendum has been on investors’ radar all year and polls have consistently indicated that Mr. Renzi is heading for defeat. Nor are Italy’s banking problems, which are the root of the market’s anxiety, in any way new: Investors know very well where the problems are and what it would take to fix them. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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