Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Posts Tagged ‘Rating’

Credit ratings and regulatory risk weights

Posted by hkarner - 23. Juni 2014

Harold Cole, Thomas F Cooley, 22 June 2014, voxeu

One of the casualties of the financial crisis has been the reputation of the major credit rating agencies. To many, the problem with the credit ratings business seems obvious:

  • The ‘issuer-pays’ market structure, in which the issuers pay the agencies to rate their debt instruments, distorts incentives.

The issuers want higher ratings to lower their cost of borrowing, and can shop among raters to get higher ratings (Pagano and Volpin 2010). Seems obvious, right?

Serious analysis and attention to history suggests that market structure is the wrong problem to focus on.

Our recent research argues that the main problem with the ratings industry is the government’s use of ratings for regulatory purposes (Cole and Cooley 2014). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Banken: Kunden zahlen Hypo-Kosten

Posted by hkarner - 22. Juni 2014

22.06.2014 | 16:52 | Von Christian Höller (Die Presse)

Nach der Rating-Herabstufung verteuert sich für die Banken die Geldaufnahme. Diese wollen einen Teil der Kosten auf die Kunden abwälzen. Es geht um bis zu 1,5 Milliarden Euro. (da bin ich aber neugierig! hfk)

Wien. Die Herabstufungen von elf österreichischen Banken durch die Ratingagentur Moody’s sorgte am Wochenende für zahlreiche Reaktionen. Moody’s begründete die Entscheidung mit dem geplanten Hypo-Sondergesetz. Denn damit haben in Österreich Bundesländergarantien so gut wie keinen Wert mehr. Für die Banken verteuert sich mit den Herabstufungen die Geldaufnahme an den Kapitalmärkten. Die Institute wollen einen Teil der höheren Kosten auf die Kunden abwälzen.
Tirols Landeshauptmann Günther Platter (ÖVP) ist über die Aussagen von Moody’s empört. Das Land Tirol ist an der dortigen Hypo beteiligt. „Es ist nicht in Ordnung, dass alle Hypo-Banken in Österreich in einen Topf geschmissen werden, weil die Hypo Alpe Adria massive Probleme hat“, so Platter. Schärfer ist die Stellungnahme von Vorarlbergs Bankensprecher und Raiffeisen-Landesdirektor Wilfried Hopfner. Österreich setze mit dem Gesetz seinen Ruf, ein verlässlicher Partner zu sein, aufs Spiel.

Schlechtere Ratings bedeuten laut Hopfner Zurückhaltung ausländischer Investoren und möglicherweise auch Nachteile für Gebietskörperschaften, die sich teurer refinanzieren müssten. Auch für private Bankkunden seien schlechtere Konditionen bei Neugeschäften nicht auszuschließen. Bestehende Verträge seien aber nicht gefährdet, so Hopfner im Radio. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A new world for bonds

Posted by hkarner - 8. Februar 2014

Date: 06-02-2014
Source: The Economist: Buttonwood

Time to sweep away an artificial distinction

IMAGINE that the stockmarket was divided into two. The big investment banks—Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Merrill Lynch—would create lists of the shares that they liked. These approved shares would be classed as IB, for investment-bank-approved, and would trade on a higher valuation (ie, lower yield) than equities they did not like, which would be lumped together in the BS, or bank-shunned, category. Some investors would be prevented from owning anything but the IB shares.

The idea sounds bizarre, but such an artificial distinction does exist in the bond markets, where the big ratings agencies class debt issues on a scale from AAA, the highest class, to D, for bonds in default. Bonds rated BBB- or higher are classified as investment grade (IG) whereas those rated BB+ or below are regarded as speculative, or more popularly, junk bonds. Some investors will not touch junk bonds at all; most bond funds focus on either IG bonds or junk. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italien will 234 Milliarden von Ratingagenturen

Posted by hkarner - 5. Februar 2014

orf.on, 5/2

Italien will von den Ratingagenturen Standard & Poor´s, Moody´s und Fitch eine Entschädigung von 234 Mrd. Euro für die Herabstufung des Ratings im Jahr 2011 verlangen.

Der Rechnungshof erklärte, dass die Agenturen bei dem Downgrade nicht den hohen Wert des historischen, kulturellen und künstlerischen Erbes berücksichtigt hätten, was eine Grundlage von Italiens wirtschaftlicher Kraft darstelle.

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Germany’s Coming Downgrade

Posted by hkarner - 18. Dezember 2013

Date: 17-12-2013
Source: Project Syndicate

SYLVESTER EIJFFINGER

Sylvester Eijffinger is Professor of Financial Economics at Tilburg University in the Netherlands.

TILBURG – On December 5, the Dutch celebrate Sinterklaas, a traditional winter holiday that people celebrate by preparing surprises for each other. But this year’s celebration was marred by a surprise that no one wanted: just days before, the credit-rating agency Standard & Poor’s stripped the Netherlands of its coveted triple-A status.

The Dutch government reacted to the downgrade much as France did when it lost its triple-A rating almost two years ago. There is no need for alarm, French officials insisted, because the other two big rating agencies, Moody’s and Fitch, maintained their highest ratings on French sovereign debt. But, earlier this year, France lost its triple-A rating at both Moody’s and Fitch, and S&P downgraded its debt yet again. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Five Years in Limbo

Posted by hkarner - 9. Oktober 2013

Date: 9 Oct 2013
Source: Project Syndicate, Joseph StiglitzStiglitz CC

NEW YORK – When the US investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008, triggering the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression, a broad consensus about what caused the crisis seemed to emerge. A bloated and dysfunctional financial system had misallocated capital and, rather than managing risk, had actually created it. Financial deregulation – together with easy money – had contributed to excessive risk-taking. Monetary policy would be relatively ineffective in reviving the economy, even if still-easier money might prevent the financial system’s total collapse. Thus, greater reliance on fiscal policy – increased government spending – would be necessary.

Five years later, while some are congratulating themselves on avoiding another depression, no one in Europe or the United States can claim that prosperity has returned. The European Union is just emerging from a double-dip (and in some countries a triple-dip) recession, and some member states are in depression. In many EU countries, GDP remains lower, or insignificantly above, pre-recession levels. Almost 27 million Europeans are unemployed.

Similarly, 22 million Americans who would like a full-time job cannot find one. Labor-force participation in the US has fallen to levels not seen since women began entering the labor market in large numbers. Most Americans’ income and wealth are below their levels long before the crisis. Indeed, a typical full-time male worker’s income is lower than it has been in more than four decades.

Yes, we have done some things to improve financial markets. There have been some increases in capital requirements – but far short of what is needed. Some of the risky derivatives – the financial weapons of mass destruction – have been put on exchanges, increasing their transparency and reducing systemic risk; but large volumes continue to be traded in murky over-the-counter markets, which means that we have little knowledge about some of our largest financial institutions’ risk exposure. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A rating agency for Europe – A good idea?

Posted by hkarner - 8. Juli 2013

Bernhard Bartels, Beatrice Weder di Mauro (both from Mainz University), 4 July 2013, voxeu

US-based credit-rating agencies are regularly subject to condemnation for causing or amplifying financial crises – the Eurozone Crisis in particular. Should Europe try to set up a European agency to counter this? This column discusses evidence that shows that the largest German rating agency was more aggressive than the US Big Three both in terms of a lower level and a higher propensity to quickly downgrade Eurozone problem countries.

It is a tough competition for the title of the biggest villain in the recent series of financial crises. Rating agencies, however, are certainly among the leading candidates.
  • Rating agencies have been showered with public anger for causing or at least amplifying the financial crisis in general and the sovereign-debt crisis in particular.
  • In the wake of serial downgrades of European countries some observers suspected a conspiracy of US-based rating agencies and fretted that entire countries were helplessly at the mercy of the mischief of some private rating agency.
  • Even more cool-headed observers mulled over the danger of speculative attacks and self-fulfilling prophesies triggered by hasty, uninformed rating changes.

A European rating agency? Testing for differences Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Euro Boosted by Greece Hope .

Posted by hkarner - 19. Dezember 2012

Have I missed a major decision by the heads of the EZ member states??? Is it really that easy? If yes, it does not qualify the intelligence of the „markets“. (hfk)

Date: 19-12-2012

Source: The Wall Street Journal

The euro reached a seven-month high against the dollar following a five-notch upgrade of Greece by ratings firm Standard & Poor’s, and investors welcomed progress in the U.S. budget negotiations, prompting a rise in stocks.

The euro hit its highest level since May 1 after Standard & Poor’s raised its rating on Greece to B-minus from selective default late on Tuesday.

It is the highest rating S&P has given Greece since June 2011.

The move follows the euro-zone member states‘ determination to support Greece’s European Union membership and the Greek government’s commitment to uphold fiscal measures, said S&P. Greek, Italian and Spanish ten-year bond yields also eased, reflecting the relief in the market. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Bertelsmann Stiftung stellt Modell für Rating-Agentur vor

Posted by hkarner - 23. November 2012

Die neue Rating-Agentur der deutschen Stiftung soll etablierten Branchengrößen heftig Konkurrenz machen. Europäische Krisenstaaten würden bei ihr besser abschneiden.

© Chema Moya/EPA/dpa, Zeit.online, 20/11

Kurstafel an der Börse in MadridKurstafel an der Börse in Madrid

Die Bertelsmann Stiftung treibt ihre Pläne für eine internationale Ratingagentur als Gegengewicht zu den drei Marktgrößen voran. In Berlin stellte die Stiftung einen Testlauf vor, bei dem Experten die Kreditwürdigkeit von fünf Staaten bewerteten. In dem alternativen Modell schnitten einige europäische Krisenstaaten besser ab als in den herkömmlichen Ratings.

Die geplante Ratingagentur Incra (International Non-Profit Credit Rating Agency) soll nicht gewinnorientiert arbeiten und eine Alternative zu Moody’s, Fitch und Standard & Poor’s aufzeigen. Den drei Unternehmen wird ein zu großer Einfluss auf die Finanzmärkte in der Euro-Schuldenkrise vorgehalten.

In dem alternativen Rating landete Italien auf Platz drei, nach Deutschland und Frankreich. Im Sommer hatte die Rating-Agentur Moody’s Italien herabgestuft. Damit liegt die Bewertung nur noch zwei Stufen über dem Niveau, das Papiere als spekulative Anlagen ausweist. In dem Bertelsmann-Modell sei die positive Bewertung Italiens den Fähigkeiten des Landes geschuldet, gut mit der Krise umzugehen, hieß es bei der Vorstellung der Ergebnisse. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Did You Know? S&P PIIGS Ratings Edition

Posted by hkarner - 14. Oktober 2012

Author: Rebecca Wilder · October 11th, 2012 · RGE EconoMonitor

With the two-notch downgrade of Spain to BBB- by by S&P (link and link), I figured that this is as good a time as any to start a series called “Did You Know?”. Let’s start with the S&P’s ratings edition and a chart featuring the ratings migration across the periphery economies Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain (GIIPS).

Did You Know?

Did you know that Ireland and Spain were once rated AAA? For Ireland, Oct 2001 to March 2009; and for Spain, Dec 2004 to Jan 2009.

Did you know that Greece was at one time rated A+? June 2003 to Nov 2004.

Did you know that the average credit quality across the GIIPS is currently BB+? According to S&P rating definitions, that’s below investment grade quality (so-called junk). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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