Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Powell’

Economists and central bankers unite in grumbling about Donald Trump

Posted by hkarner - 30. August 2019

Date: 27-08-2019
Source: The Economist Free exchange

But in some ways, the president brought them together at their yearly gathering

AS THE ANNUAL meeting of central bankers and economists at Jackson Hole, a mountain resort in Wyoming, began on August 23, two participants made a bet. Would President Donald Trump tweet about the opening remarks of Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, within 45 minutes of their publication? In the event, it took the president 57 minutes. That night the victor enjoyed his winnings—a glass of whiskey—in the bar.

Mr Trump’s words made the conference theme, “challenges for monetary policy”, uncomfortably timely. He called Mr Powell anenemy and promised to ramp up trade tensions with China further. Later that day he announced increases in tariff rates on over $500bn of Chinese imports. But even as stockmarkets reeled, the conference continued serenely. Indeed, Mr Trump even brought the participants together.

Most obviously, they were united in grumbling about the effects of his trade policy on the global economy. Philip Lowe, the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, said that business uncertainty was turning political shocks into economic ones. Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, said that trade tensions had raised risk premiums, tightening financial conditions. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Boris Johnson plans to frighten Europe then charm it. Here’s why he’ll fail

Posted by hkarner - 28. Juli 2019

Date: 27-07-2019
Source: The Guardian by Jonathan Powell

I spent 10 years negotiating with EU leaders. They don’t trust him, and simply won’t be fooled by his bluster

‘Johnson’s Tinkerbell delusion is about to be tested on the wheel of harsh reality.’

The new prime minister insists blind ambition is enough. Like Peter Pan, if we do believe, we do, we do, then it will come true. We can have a new exit deal with the European Union within 99 days without the “undemocratic” Irish backstop because he wills it so. This Tinkerbell delusion is about to be tested on the wheel of harsh reality when Boris Johnson goes to meet his European colleagues. But even his first step has backfired. When he, unwisely, upped the ante by making refusal of the Irish border backstop a precondition for talks, the EU negotiator Michel Barnier immediately rejected the move. Now Johnson will have to back down even to get a meeting.

The prime minister’s strategy, however, remains clear: he will combine public threats and private charm. First, he will frighten Europe by giving every impression of going hell for leather for a no-deal Brexit. He has certainly appointed the right team to frighten them – Dominic Raab, Michael Gove and Dominic Cummings. Like us, EU leaders have seen the movie. And then he hopes the leaders will melt in the face of his personal charm when he comes to visit them.

Bluster and bullshit is fine in the public domain but in the Kanzleramt, it will count for nothing Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

And we are still stuck with Trump and that is far worse!

Posted by hkarner - 4. April 2019

Date: 03-04-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Subject: Trump to Fed Chairman Powell: ‘I Guess I’m Stuck With You’

The president blasted the central bank and its leader at three meetings in the past week alone

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Capitol Hill in Washington in February.

WASHINGTON—President Trump is blaming the Federal Reserve for holding back the economy and stock market despite the central bank’s recent decision to do two things he wanted—halt rate increases and stop shrinking its asset portfolio.

The president blasted the Fed and Chairman Jerome Powell at three meetings in the past week alone, telling Republican senators, supporters and staffers that if it wasn’t for the central bank’s past rate increases, economic output and stocks would be higher and the U.S. budget deficit would be rising less. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Federal Reserve: Ohne permanente Interventionen kommt der Crash

Posted by hkarner - 30. März 2019

Dank an H.G.!

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten | Veröffentlicht: 21.03.19 09:44 Uhr

Die Federal Reserve bricht die Normalisierung ihrer Geldpolitik ab. Das marode Finanzsystem kann offenbar keine dauerhaft steigenden Zinsen mehr vertragen. Für die Weltwirtschaft sind schwere Zeiten angebrochen.

Angesichts der unsicheren Konjunkturaussichten will die US-Notenbank Fed dieses Jahr die Füße stillhalten und die Ära der schrittweisen Zinserhöhungen beenden. Die Währungshüter um Fed-Chef Jerome Powell planen nach neun Erhöhungen binnen drei Jahren für 2019 eine Pause, wie sie am Mittwoch signalisierten. Erst 2020 könnte noch eine Anhebung kommen.

Der Leitzins ist nun in der Spanne von 2,25 bis 2,5 Prozent in etwa auf einem Niveau, das die Wirtschaft laut Powell weder anschiebt noch bremst. „Jetzt ist eine großartige Zeit, um geduldig zu sein“, betonte er. Aus den Konjunkturdaten lasse sich kein Grund ableiten, Zinsen zu erhöhen oder zu senken.

Die Entscheidung der Zentralbank hat massive Auswirkungen. Praktisch gesteht sie damit ein, dass die Weltwirtschaft vor schwierigen Zeiten steht und eine Rezession nicht mehr ausgeschlossen ist. Es ist außerdem ein Eingeständnis, dass das auf Schuldgeld basierende Finanzsystem nicht mehr ohne dauerhafte Eingriffe durch die Zentralbanken bestehen kann. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Trump lässt kein gutes Haar an seinem Notenbankchef

Posted by hkarner - 29. November 2018

US-Präsident Donald Trump teilt schon seit Monaten gegen die Währungshüter aus. „Bisher bin ich mit meiner Wahl von Jay noch nicht mal ein kleines bisschen glücklich“, sagt er jetzt.

Präsident Donald Trump verstärkt den Druck auf die US-Notenbank Fed mit einer neuen Welle von Vorwürfen. In einem Zeitungsinterview bekräftigte er seine Kritik an dem von ihm selbst ins Amt gehievten Fed-Chef Jerome Powell. Trump hält diesem vor, mit Zinserhöhungen der amerikanischen Wirtschaft zu schaden. „Ich mache Deals, und ich erhalte keine Unterstützung der Fed“, sagte der Präsident der „Washington Post“. Die Notenbank mache einen Fehler. Das sage ihm sein Bauchgefühl. „Mein Bauch sagt mir manchmal mehr, als das Gehirn von jedem anderen mir sagen könnte.“

Angesichts der boomenden Wirtschaft erhöht die Fed derzeit schrittweise die Zinsen, um die Inflation in Schach zu halten. Damit will sie ihr Mandat erfüllen, Vollbeschäftigung und stabile Preise zu befördern. Sie untersteht nicht der Regierung. Powell hat angesichts der mehrfachen Attacken Trumps die Unabhängigkeit der Fed unterstrichen. Nach der jüngsten Zinsanhebung Ende September sagte er, bei geldpolitischen Entscheidungen spielten „politische Faktoren oder ähnliches“ keine Rolle. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , | Leave a Comment »

How Little Does the Fed Know?

Posted by hkarner - 2. März 2018

Date: 01-03-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Investors need to form their own opinions, not rely on central bankers

Part of the grip central bankers have on markets comes from their mystique. The Federal Reserve holds sway over the price of money, which gives it hard power. But the Fed’s soft power is almost as valuable: its pronouncements on the future of the economy provide the baseline for investor forecasts, and not only because they are trying to work out what the Fed will do with interest rates.

The Fed’s aura of invincibility has been dented over the past decade. Yet those listening to new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testify to Congress this week showed little willingness to question his foreknowledge about the economy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Fed’s Powell Says His Economic Outlook Has Improved

Posted by hkarner - 1. März 2018

Date: 28-02-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Central-bank chief sees ‘further gradual increases’ in interest rates

WASHINGTON—Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the economy’s prospects have brightened in recent months, indicating the central bank is on track to keep gradually lifting short-term interest rates and perhaps even pick up the pace this year.

“My personal outlook for the economy has strengthened since December,” he told members of the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday in his first Capitol Hill appearance since taking over as Fed chief earlier this month.

“We’ve seen continuing strength in the labor market. We’ve seen some data that will, in my case, add some confidence to my view that inflation is moving up to target. We’ve also seen continued strength around the globe, and we’ve seen fiscal policy become more stimulative,” he said in answer to a question about what could cause the Fed to raise rates more than three times this year. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Has Trump Captured the Fed?

Posted by hkarner - 5. November 2017

Joseph E. Stiglitz, recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2001 and the John Bates Clark Medal in 1979, is University Professor at Columbia University, Co-Chair of the High-Level Expert Group on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress at the OECD, and Chief Economist of the Roosevelt Institute. A former senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank and chair of the US president’s Council of Economic Advisers under Bill Clinton, in 2000 he founded the Initiative for Policy Dialogue, a think tank on international development based at Columbia University. His most recent book is The Euro: How a Common Currency Threatens the Future of Europe.

US President Donald Trump has an uncanny ability to embrace economic policies, such as the Republicans‘ proposed tax cuts, that benefit him personally. In choosing the relatively moderate Jerome Powell to chair the Federal Reserve, he realized that an extremist would raise interest rates – any real-estate developer’s worst nightmare.

NEW YORK – One of the important powers of any US president is to appoint members and heads of the many agencies that are responsible for implementing the country’s laws and regulations and, in many cases, governing the economy. Perhaps no institution is more important in that regard than the Federal Reserve.

In exercising that power, Donald Trump has broken a long-standing pattern, going back almost a half-century, whereby the president reappoints (on a non-partisan basis) the incumbent Fed chair, if he or she has been seen to be doing a good job. Probably no chair has done a better job, in a particularly difficult moment, than Janet Yellen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Donald Trump’s Federal Reserve

Posted by hkarner - 4. November 2017

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, his new book, The Curse of Cash, was released in August 2016.

Jerome Powell, US President Donald Trump’s pick to succeed Janet Yellen as Fed Chair, will face some extraordinary challenges at the outset of his five-year term. But the greatest challenge of all will be to stay out of Trump’s shadow and uphold the Fed’s independence.

CAMBRIDGE – With the appointment of Jerome Powell as the next Chair of the United States Federal Reserve Board, Donald Trump has made perhaps the most important single decision of his presidency. It is a sane and sober choice that heralds short-term continuity in Fed interest-rate policy, and perhaps a simpler and cleaner approach to regulatory policy.

Although Powell is not a PhD economist like current Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, he has used his years as an “ordinary” governor at the Fed to gain a deep knowledge of the key issues he will face. But make no mistake: the institution Powell will now head rules the global financial system. All other central bankers, finance ministers, and even presidents run a distant second. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Geldpolitik: Ein neuer Steuermann bei tückisch ruhiger See

Posted by hkarner - 2. November 2017

Jerome Powell dürfte als Trumps Wahl für den Fed-Chefposten die Zinspolitik von Janet Yellen fortsetzen, aber die Zügel für Banken leicht lockern. Das wirtschaftliche Umfeld ist dafür viel heikler und unsicherer, als es erscheint.

Wien/Washington. Donald Trump macht aus allem eine Show. Aber am Ende des inszenierten Schaulaufens um die neue Spitze der Notenbank Fed traf der US-Präsident offenbar eine erstaunlich ausgewogene, unspektakuläre Entscheidung: Jerome Powell wäre ein Pragmatiker, Zentrist, Kompromisskandidat – und vor allem ein Garant dafür, dass die wichtigste Zentralbank der Welt ihre Politik der behutsamen Zinserhöhungen und des vorsichtigen Ausstiegs aus den Anleihekäufen fortsetzt. Der Favorit galt am Donnerstag schon als fix gesetzt; offiziell verkündet hat Trump seine Entscheidung erst nach Redaktionsschluss dieser Ausgabe. Der Senat muss Trumps Wahl noch absegnen; das Mandat der aktuellen Fed-Chefin Janet Yellen läuft Anfang Februar aus.

Überspitzt lässt sich sagen: Der größte Unterschied zu ihrem erwarteten Nachfolger wäre, dass er nicht Janet Yellen heißt. Seit 2012 gehört Powell dem Direktorium der Fed an; keine einzige Entscheidung hat er seitdem nicht mitgetragen oder auch nur öffentlich infrage gestellt. Dennoch wollte Trump einen Akzent setzen (worauf die meisten früheren Herren im Weißen Haus verzichteten: Seit 1979 wurde noch jedem Fed-Chef eine zweite Amtszeit gewährt). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »