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Posts Tagged ‘Politics’

Investors are not great at predicting politics

Posted by hkarner - 12. August 2017

Date: 10-08-2017
Source: The Economist: Buttonwood

Wishful thinking may lead them astray

FINANCIAL markets are supposed to be the font of all wisdom, weighing up the information available and condensing it into a set of prices. Investors are presumed to have an insight into the future—falling bond yields are seen as a sign that the economy is slowing, for example.

But are investors that clever when it comes to politics? Gambling markets show how they assess political risk. They expected the Remain campaign to win the Brexit referendum and Hillary Clinton to become America’s president, and were proved wrong. Indeed, on Brexit, the mass of gamblers (the general public, in other words) backed Leave, but the odds were skewed by some wealthy punters who favoured Remain. Those rich gamblers were probably people who trade in financial markets; the plunge in the pound after the result suggests that most investors were caught on the hop.

Before the presidential election, most people on Wall Street to whom Buttonwood spoke thought that a victory for Donald Trump would be bad for the markets. But as the results came in, there was a sudden change of tone and both the dollar and equities rallied. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Harnessing the Politics of Disruption

Posted by hkarner - 1. Februar 2017

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Toxic Politics Versus Better Economics

Posted by hkarner - 16. Oktober 2016

Photo of Mohamed A. El-Erian

Mohamed A. El-Erian

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he served as CEO and co-Chief Investment Officer, is Chairman of US President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council. He previously served as CEO of the Harvard Management Company and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund. He was named one of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. He is the author, most recently, of The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse.

OCT 15, 2016

NEW YORK – The relationship between politics and economics is changing. Advanced-country politicians are locked in bizarre, often toxic, conflicts, instead of acting on a growing economic consensus about how to escape a protracted period of low and unequal growth. This trend must be reversed, before it structurally cripples the advanced world and sweeps up the emerging economies, too.

Obviously, political infighting is nothing new. But, until recently, the expectation was that if professional economists achieved a technocratic consensus on a given policy approach, political leaders would listen. Even when more radical political parties attempted to push a different agenda, powerful forces – whether moral suasion from G7 governments, private capital markets, or the conditionality attached to International Monetary Fund and World Bank lending – would almost always ensure that the consensus approach eventually won the day. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The post-truth world: Yes, I’d lie to you

Posted by hkarner - 11. September 2016

Date: 10-09-2016
Source: The Economist

Dishonesty in politics is nothing new; but the manner in which some politicians now lie, and the havoc they may wreak by doing so, are worrying

TrumpWHEN Donald Trump, the Republican presidential hopeful, claimed recently that President Barack Obama “is the founder” of Islamic State and Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate, the “co-founder”, even some of his supporters were perplexed. Surely he did not mean that literally? Perhaps, suggested Hugh Hewitt, a conservative radio host, he meant that the Obama administration’s rapid pull-out from Iraq “created the vacuum” that the terrorists then filled?

“No, I meant he’s the founder of ISIS,” replied Mr Trump. “He was the most valuable player. I give him the most valuable player award. I give her, too, by the way, Hillary Clinton.”

Mr Hewitt, who detests Mr Obama and has written a book denouncing Mrs Clinton’s “epic ambition”, was not convinced. “But he’s not sympathetic to them. He hates them. He’s trying to kill them,” he pushed back.

Again, Mr Trump did not give an inch: “I don’t care. He was the founder. The way he got out of Iraq was, that, that was the founding of ISIS, OK?” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Welchen Beruf Österreichs Politiker hatten

Posted by hkarner - 28. Mai 2016

27.05.2016 | 12:00 | von Gerhard Hofer und Katrin Nussmayr (Die Presse)

40 Prozent der politischen Führungskräfte kommen aus dem öffentlichen Sektor, aber nur etwa zehn Prozent der Erwerbstätigen arbeiten im Staatsdienst.

Mit der Kür von Christian Kern zum neuen Bundeskanzler kam das große Aufatmen. „Endlich ein Manager aus der Wirtschaft“, hieß es da, und es war einerlei, dass Kerns Managerkarriere sich ausschließlich in staatsnahen und staatlichen Unternehmen – sprich Verbund und ÖBB – abgespielt hatte. Die Betonung liegt auf Manager. Und unterschwellig lautet die Botschaft: Unsere Politiker haben sich von der echten Lebens- und Arbeitswelt so weit entfernt, dass allein der Umstand eines Quereinsteigers als Befreiungsschlag empfunden wird.

Anlass genug, um sich die Berufskarrieren heimischer Politiker vor ihrem Einstieg in die Politik näher anzusehen. Welche Berufserfahrung haben die knapp 750 Mandatare und Regierungsmitglieder gesammelt, die in Landtagen, National- und Bundesrat sowie im Europaparlament tätig sind? Das Ergebnis ist ernüchternd, teilweise überraschend und manchmal auch ziemlich skurril. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Can the Islamic State Unify Europe?

Posted by hkarner - 26. November 2015

Photo of Hans-Werner Sinn

Hans-Werner Sinn

Hans-Werner Sinn, Professor of Economics and Public Finance at the University of Munich, is President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research and serves on the German economy ministry’s Advisory Council. He is the author, most recently,o f The Euro Trap: On Bursting Bubbles, Budgets, and Beliefs.

NOV 26, 2015, Project Syndicate

MUNICH – During the financial crisis, the eurozone’s northern members rescued their southern counterparts by offering huge bailouts and backing the European Central Bank’s promise to save the euro at all costs. When Germany recently requested a quota system to cope with the massive influx of refugees, however, its partners showed no such solidarity. And now that France, reeling from the Paris attacks, has declared war on the Islamic State, other European countries are shrugging their shoulders, mumbling condolences, and silently hoping that the conflict will spare them. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe Is Trapped Between Power and Politics

Posted by hkarner - 16. März 2015

A brilliant explanation why politics is failing so miserably today, everywhere. (hfk)

Date: 15-03-2015Bauman
Source: Zygmunt Bauman

That the disease which brought the European Union into the intensive-care ward and has kept it there since, for quite a few years, is best diagnosed as a ‘democratic deficit’ is fast turning into a commonplace. Indeed, it is taken increasingly for granted and is hardly ever seriously questioned. Some observers and analysts ascribe the illness to an inborn organic defect, some others seek carriers of the disease among the personalities of the European Council and the constituencies they represent; some believe the disease has by now become terminal and beyond treatment, some others trust that a bold and harsh surgical intervention may yet save the patient from agony. But hardly anyone questions the diagnosis. All, or nearly all, agree that the roots of the malaise lie in the breakdown of communication between the holders of political offices (policy-makers in Brussels and/or the politicians of European Council) who set the tune and the people called to follow the set score with or without being asked and offering their consent.

At least there is no deficit of arguments to support the diagnosis of the ‘deficit of democracy’ inside the European Union. The state of the Union, no doubt, calls for intensive care, and its future – the very chance of its survival – lies in a balance. Such a condition we call, since the ancient beginnings of medical practice, ‘crisis’. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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