Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘PIIGS’

Europe’s Debt Wish

Posted by hkarner - 8. Juli 2014

A clear and perfect assessment of the situation. You can now better understand why the Krugman’s and Co. are so hostile towards K. Rogoff (hfk)

Date: 07-07-2014Rogoff Euro
Source: Project Syndicate

KENNETH ROGOFF

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. His most recent book, co-authored with Carmen M. Reinhart, is This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.

CAMBRIDGE – Eurozone leaders continue to debate how best to reinvigorate economic growth, with French and Italian leaders now arguing that the eurozone’s rigid “fiscal compact” should be loosened. Meanwhile, the leaders of the eurozone’s northern member countries continue to push for more serious implementation of structural reform.

Ideally, both sides will get their way, but it is difficult to see an endgame that does not involve significant debt restructuring or rescheduling. The inability of Europe’s politicians to contemplate this scenario is placing a huge burden on the European Central Bank.

Although there are many explanations for the eurozone’s lagging recovery, it is clear that the overhang of both public and private debt looms large. The gross debts of households and financial institutions are higher today as a share of national income than they were before the financial crisis. Nonfinancial corporate debt has fallen only slightly. And government debt, of course, has risen sharply, owing to bank bailouts and a sharp, recession-fueled decline in tax revenues. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Hans-Werner Sinn: „Europa ist auf dem falschen Weg“

Posted by hkarner - 5. Juli 2014

03.07.2014 , Wirtschaftswoche.deSinn cc

Hans-Werner Sinn ist überzeugt, dass es für die Euro-Krisenländer besser ist, nicht länger am Euro festzuhalten. Am Ende seien sowieso immer die Steuerzahler der Eurozone die Leidtragenden, erklärt er im Interview.

Obwohl die Krisenpolitik der EZB die Eurozone wesentlich stabilisiert habe, sei Draghis Politik dem Präsidenten des Ifo Instituts ein Dorn im Auge, wie Hans-Werner Sinn im Interview mit dem Wall Street Journal zu verstehen gibt. Statt weiterhin wertvolle Zeit durch künstliche Senkungen der Zinsabstände zu vergeuden, sollten ernstzunehmende Reformen her. Die EU-Sorgenkinder müssten endlich den Gürtel enger schnallen.

Der Wirtschaftswissenschaftler an der Universität München lässt gegenüber dem Wall Street Journal außerdem verlauten, dass „die EZB ihr Mandat überschritten“ habe. Der Grund: die EZB lege den Steuerzahlern enorme Lasten auf, wobei fraglich sei, ob sie das überhaupt darf. Denn eigentlich sei es Aufgabe der Parlamente, fiskalische Maßnahmen zu entscheiden.

In erster Linie sei die Zinsentscheidung nützlich für den Kreditnehmer gewesen, sofern das Kapital aber „möglicherweise in ineffiziente Verwendungen gelenkt wird, wenn es gar keine Renditeanforderungen mehr gibt“, dann sei mit negativen Effekten zu rechnen. In einem solchen Fall seien das nichts anderes als Verluste. Dies bedeute, dass sich die EZB „in großem Umfang zur Gläubigerin von Banken“ mache. Im Falle einer Banken-Pleite, seien die Steuerzahler der Euro-Zone die Leidtragenden. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Age of Transformation

Posted by hkarner - 15. Juni 2014

I believe this is a very accurate description of the scenario ahead of us! (hfk)

John Mauldin, 15-6

I believe there are multiple and rapidly accelerating changes happening simultaneously (if you can think of 10 years as simultaneously) that are going to transform our social structures, our investment portfolios, and our personal futures. We have had such transformations in the past. The rise of the nation state, the steam engine, electricity, the advent of the social safety net, the personal computer, the internet, and the collapse of communism are just a few of the dozens of profound changes that have transformed the world in which we live.

Therefore, in one sense, these periods of transformation are nothing new. I think the difference today, however, is going to be the simultaneous nature of multiple transformational trends playing out within a very short period of time (relatively speaking) and at an accelerating rate.

It is self-evident that failure to adapt to transformational trends will consign a business or a society to the ash can of history. Our history and business books are littered with thousands of such failures. I think we are entering one of those periods when failing to pay close attention to the changes going on around you could prove decidedly problematical for your portfolio and fatal to your business.

This week we’re going to develop a very high-level perspective on the Age of Transformation. In the coming years we will do a deep dive into various aspects of it, as this letter always has. But I think it will be very helpful for you to understand the larger picture of what is happening so that you can put specific developments into context – and, hopefully, let them work for you rather than against you. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe’s economy: Still in the danger zone

Posted by hkarner - 20. Mai 2014

Date: 19-05-2014
Source: Fortune

The latest economic growth figures from the European Union confirm that most of its member nations are struggling. It’s time to make some tough, painful choices.

FORTUNE — For the past year, we’ve been hearing that global growth, and the world’s equity markets, will get a major lift from a gradual recovery in Europe.

Indeed, Ireland and Portugal recently returned to the debt markets with well-received offerings, and the Greek government claims it will soon be in a position to issue bonds. Yields on sovereign debt remain remarkably low and stable. It’s indisputable that a mood of tranquility has returned to the eurozone.

But tranquility is not the same thing as progress, as the GDP figures released on May 15 by the Statistical Office of The European Union (Eurostat) alarmingly demonstrate. The 18-nation eurozone expanded by just 0.2% in the first quarter of 2014, half the figure economists were projecting.

Germany, as usual, was the leader, posting a gain of 0.8%. The problem spots are precisely the places where the comeback is supposedly underway: the beleaguered nations of Europe’s southern tier, as well as that tamed tiger, Ireland. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Eurokrise: „Griechenland braucht neue Hilfe“

Posted by hkarner - 17. Mai 2014

Eine grund vernünftige Einschätzung des deutschen Wirtschaftswissenschafters: „die Krise ist nicht vorbei“, „Griechenland braucht einen weiteren Schuldenschnitt“ etc. (hfk)

16.05.2014 | 18:23 | von Jakob Zirm (Die Presse)

Die Eurokrise ist noch lange nicht vorbei, sagt Joachim Scheide vom deutschen IFW. Die aktuelle Entspannung berge vielmehr das Risiko, dass der Reformeifer erlahmt.Scheide CC

Die Presse: Spanien und Irland haben den Rettungsschirm schon verlassen. Morgen folgt Portugal. Ist die Eurokrise vorbei?

Joachim Scheide: Das kann man keinesfalls sagen. Das wäre sehr voreilig. Wir haben nach wie vor ein großes Problem bei der Staatsverschuldung. Und auch, wenn die akuten Rettungsmaßnahmen auslaufen, ist die Politik immer noch nicht auf Kurs. Die Verschuldung ist in vielen Ländern noch nicht nachhaltig. 

Einige Reformen wurden ja gemacht – etwa in Griechenland die Arbeitsmarktreform. War das noch nicht genug?

Die Reformen sind einfach noch nicht ausreichend, um auf einen langfristigen Wachstumspfad zurückzukehren. Und wenn die Länder schrumpfen oder lediglich stagnieren, dann werden auch die Verschuldungsquoten wieder ansteigen. Die meisten Länder haben zwar bei der Produktion die Kurve gekriegt, sie sinkt also nicht mehr. Aber ein nachhaltiger Aufschwung ist nach wie vor nicht in Sicht.

 

Was müsste konkret passieren?

Die Kernprobleme sind das Steuersystem, die Investitionsanreize und der Arbeitsmarkt, der in vielen südlichen Ländern sehr unflexibel ist. Da müssen Reformen gemacht werden, auch wenn sie schmerzhaft sind. Wir in Deutschland haben das auch durchgezogen – trotz Demonstrationen auf der Straße. Heute ernten wir die Früchte davon. Zusätzlich lässt auch der Spareifer nach. Ein Grund dafür ist, dass die EZB eingesprungen ist und gesagt hat, sie kauft im Notfall Staatsanleihen auf. Dadurch wurde der Reformdruck genommen. Das sieht man gut in Frankreich, wo der Zeitpunkt jetzt erneut verschoben wurde, zu dem die Dreiprozentgrenze bei der Neuverschuldung unterschritten werden soll. In Frankreich liegt das Defizit seit acht Jahren in Folge über drei Prozent. Und das ohne echte Krise. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Der Patient ist vorerst stabil

Posted by hkarner - 17. Mai 2014

16.05.2014 | 18:23 | Von Nikolaus Jilch (Die Presse)

Europa. Nach drei Jahren und 78 Mrd. Euro an Hilfsgeldern verlässt Portugal den Rettungsschirm. Das Land hat abgespeckt, aber der Schuldenberg wächst weiter.

Lissabon/Brüssel/Wien. Kurz vor dem vorläufigen Ende des portugiesischen Dramas wird es noch einmal spannend. Seit Donnerstag protestieren eine Reihe von Künstlern und ihre politischen Unterstützer (aus der sozialistischen Opposition) gegen einen – aus ihrer Sicht besonders perfiden – Plan der Regierung, die leeren Staatskassen aufzufüllen: die Versteigerung von 85 Bildern des katalanischen Malers Joan Miró, die aus dem Besitz der notverstaatlichten BPN-Bank stammen.

Von Porto bis Lissabon und sogar in London sollen nun Proteste für eine Sache stattfinden, die ohnehin schon gewonnen scheint. Eine bereits geplante Auktion wurde bereits Anfang Februar wieder abgesagt. Als Symbol im Kampf gegen die Sparpläne der konservativen Regierung von Premier Pedro Passos Coelho müssen die Bilder trotzdem weiterhin herhalten – auch, weil es an Alternativen fehlt.

Denn Portugal wird an diesem Samstag offiziell den sogenannten Rettungsschirm der EU-Partner verlassen. Es hat drei Jahre gedauert und insgesamt 78 Mrd. Euro gekostet: Aber Portugal kann wieder auf eigenen Beinen stehen – wie die erfolgreiche Auktion von Staatsanleihen mit zehnjähriger Laufzeit Ende April schon gezeigt hat. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Euro Illusions Force Weaker Nations Into High Unemployment

Posted by hkarner - 16. Mai 2014

Date: 15-05-2014
Source: BusinessWeek

Europe’s economic prospects are picking up, according to the European Commission. Growth is slowly gaining momentum, say the forecasters in Brussels, and “the conditions for sustained recovery in the medium term are also improving.” In a Bloomberg Markets poll, 83 percent of investors say they believe the euro area’s economies are either stable or getting stronger. The crisis appears to be over. Supposing that’s all true, is it really good news?

The answer isn’t obvious. Granted, sluggish growth is better than no growth. Output this year is expected to be just 1.2 percent higher than in 2013, but after a prolonged contraction, any recovery is welcome. It’s encouraging, too, that the EU has avoided the most frightening meltdown scenarios. In 2011, when the crisis was at its worst, many dreaded an outright collapse of the euro currency system. That would have been a calamity, causing an even worse recession. Thank heaven it didn’t happen.

On the other hand, it would at least have been a clarifying calamity—the action-forcing event the EU still so badly needs. The risk today is that Europe’s weak, faltering recovery will be seen as good enough, making the changes that could restore Europe’s vitality much less likely to happen. Muddling through, ever the EU’s default mode, may be the worst possible outcome. Europe might find, to its ultimate cost, that the contradiction built into its economic system is tolerable after all. The price may not be another sudden breakdown—though this remains a possibility—but persistently high unemployment in many countries and chronic underperformance across the EU as a whole. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Beware of europhoria

Posted by hkarner - 15. Mai 2014

Date: 14-05-2014
Source: The Economist: Charlemagne

Stagnation and a looming political backlash make optimism about the euro overdone

TWO sets of numbers tell a contradictory story about the euro zone. Economic data point to improvements by the month, even by the day: growth is picking up and the borrowing costs of even the most indebted countries keep falling. The crisis is over, say some Eurocrats.
By contrast, polls ahead of this month’s European elections point to political upheaval. Voters are exasperated with their governments and with Europe; anti-establishment groups are on the rise and may come top in some places.

Europe may be about to test de Tocqueville’s contention that the most propitious time for revolution is not when conditions are worsening, but when they start to improve. “Evils which are patiently endured when they seem inevitable become intolerable once the idea of escape from them is suggested,” he wrote. Having witnessed the evils of falling living standards and mass unemployment, and with a general sense that citizens have had to pay to save banks (all worsened by leaders’ mismanagement of the crisis), there are signs that escape is at hand. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe’s Crisis Treadmill

Posted by hkarner - 13. Mai 2014

Date: 12-05-2014Eichengreen cc
Source: Project Syndicate

BARRY EICHENGREEN

Barry Eichengreen is Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. His most recent book is Exorbitant Privilege: The Rise and Fall of the Dollar and the Future of the International Monetary System.

BERKELEY – This month marks the fourth anniversary of the May 2010 financial rescue of Greece. Previously, the idea that a eurozone member would seek emergency assistance from the International Monetary Fund, along with the European Commission and the European Central Bank, was unthinkable. The rescue thus marked Europe’s descent into full-blown crisis.

Four years later, European officials are assuring everyone that the crisis is over. The IMF has raised its forecast for eurozone growth this year to 1.2%. Even Greece is forecast to grow by a modest but not insignificant 0.6%.

Bond markets, too, are indicating that the crisis is over. Yields on Irish government bonds have fallen below 3%. Last month, Portugal was able to issue ten-year bonds at 3.57%. Even Greece has been able to sell five-year bonds at rates below 5%.

Clearly, the supposed experts who predicted the imminent disintegration of the eurozone have been proved wrong. But it is equally likely that those now declaring that the crisis is over will be proved wrong as well. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Portugal and Greece: The Odd Return to Markets

Posted by hkarner - 12. Mai 2014

Author: Dan Steinbock  ·  May 9th, 2014  ·  RGE EconoMonitor

In the past few weeks, Portugal and Greece have returned to the markets in moves seen in Brussels as heralding a rebound in Southern Europe. In reality, a fragile recovery has barely begun and will take years.

On Sunday (4 May), Portugal’s Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho announced that his government will not seek a precautionary credit from the Troika lenders: the European Commission (EC), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the European Central Bank (ECB). Instead, Lisbon seeks to rely only on markets for financing.

After it shortly takes its final installment of a €78 billion bailout package, Portugal hopes to have a “clean exit” from its three-year rescue programme.

In Brussels, Coelho’s announcement was welcomed with a sigh of relief. It was timed well; just a month before the European Parliament election, which is expected to squeeze the political middle but strengthen the minorities of radical left, eurosceptics and extreme right.

At the EC, the IMF and the ECB, the hope is that Portugal’s “great turnaround”, along with the Greek “return to markets” will make the impending election protest just a little less painful. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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