Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Peterson’

The truth about trade agreements – and why we need them

Posted by hkarner - 30. November 2016

Chad Bown

Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics; CEPR Research Fellow

29 November 2016, voxeu

However, even the largest estimates find international trade has caused only a fraction of the US economic dislocation — including that likely suffered by Mr. Trump’s key voters. Recognised studies observe that the surge in imports from China is an important contributor to US unemployment, for example, but it is responsible for less than 20% of the manufacturing job loss from 1999 to 2011. The other 80% of lost jobs were caused by something else entirely.1 Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Europeans see themselves as mouse-sized. They need to man up

Posted by hkarner - 10. September 2016

Date: 08-09-2016
Source: The Economist: Charlemagne
Subject: Unshrinking the continent

LIKE all good B-movies, “The Incredible Shrinking Man” is deeper than it seems. After his body’s growth is sent into reverse by a wayward encounter with a radioactive cloud (yes, this is 1957), Scott Carey, the film’s hero, finds his relationships destroyed and his self-esteem dripping away. Richard Matheson, the screenwriter, said it was a “metaphor for how man’s place in the world was diminishing”. Today he might say the same for the old continent. Beleaguered by crisis and shorn of confidence, Europe seems to be shrinking by the day.

It might seem an odd time for such a claim. This week came news that the euro zone grew by 1.6% in the second quarter compared with a year earlier, and the European Union, lifted by a pre-referendum Britain, by 1.8%. This, as Eurocrats wasted no time pointing out, was a good clip faster than the United States. In most countries budget deficits are under control, and after years of austerity the euro zone is at last enjoying the mildest of fiscal expansions. Outside Italy its banks are in better shape. A pan-EU investment scheme launched, to much scepticism, by the European Commission last year is starting to show results. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The rising number of emerging-market billionaires is a good thing

Posted by hkarner - 2. April 2016

Date: 31-03-2016
Source: The Economist: Schumpeter
Subject: Tycoonomics

IN 1998 Peter Mandelson, a leading member of Britain’s then Labour government, said he was “intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich as long as they pay their taxes.” Today Lord Mandelson is more uptight; he worries about the rising inequality and stagnating middle-class incomes brought about by globalisation. His volte-face is typical of the global elite. The head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, says that rising inequality casts a “dark shadow” over the global economy. A recent OECD report warns that rising inequality will be a “major policy challenge” for all countries.

In a new study, “Rich People, Poor Countries: The Rise of Emerging-Market Tycoons and their Mega Firms”, Caroline Freund of the Peterson Institute in Washington, DC, makes an important contribution to understanding this challenge. She draws a distinction between rich-world billionaires and those of the emerging economies, whose numbers have been rising at a faster rate. In 2004 the emerging world accounted for 20% of the 587 billionaires in Forbes magazine’s annual survey. By 2014 it accounted for 43% of the 1,645 billionaires on the list. In the rich world the share who were self-made, rather than heirs to a fortune, was fairly stable between 2001 and 2014, at about 60%. In the emerging world the self-made proportion rose from 56% to 79%. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Blanchard: Looking Forward, Looking Back

Posted by hkarner - 1. September 2015


August 31, 2015

  • IMF Chief Economist Blanchard to step down end September
  • Financial crisis raises potential existential crisis for macroeconomics
  • Need to address longer term issues of low productivity growth, increasing inequality

Olivier Blanchard will step down as Economic Counsellor and Director of the IMF’s Research Department at the end of September.

He will join the Peterson Institute for International Economics in October as the first C. Fred Bergsten senior fellow, a post named for the founder of the influential 35-year-old, Washington-based think tank.

When French-born Blanchard, a former chairman of the economics department at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, joined the IMF on September 1, 2008, little did he realize that he would be at the center of a global economic storm. Two weeks later, Lehman Brother’s bank collapsed, marking what many consider the start of the 2008-09 global financial crisis.   Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Back from the brink: Policy reform and debt relief in Greece

Posted by hkarner - 24. August 2015

William R. Cline 24 August 2015, voxeu

Senior fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics


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Experte: „Banken werden nicht aufsperren, bis neues Hilfsprogramm steht“

Posted by hkarner - 1. Juli 2015

Interview | Andreas Schnauder, derstandard.at, 1. Juli 2015, 12:59

Funk KirkegardJacob Funk Kirkegaard rechnet mit längeren Bankferien und zahlreichen Firmenpleiten als Folge der Kapitalverkehrskontrollen in Griechenland

STANDARD: Derzeit versucht Griechenland, mit Kapitalverkehrskontrollen über die Runden zu kommen. Manche Experten meinen, dass das Land damit die aktuelle Krise durchtauchen könnte. Was sagen Sie?

Kirkegaard: Die Folgen der Kapitalverkehrskontrollen sind, dass die Leute zu wenig Cash haben. Es gibt auch viele Unternehmen, die Engpässe bekommen. Sie können ihre Lieferanten und Löhne nicht bezahlen. Viele Klein- und Mittelbetriebe werden zweifellos in den nächsten Wochen pleitegehen. Das ist eine Katastrophe für die griechische Wirtschaft. Aber es ist der einzige Weg, ein noch größeres Desaster zu verhindern. Wenn man keine Kapitalverkehrskontrollen durchführen würde, käme es zu einem Bankrun, sie wären insolvent, müssten geschlossen werden und könnten wegen Kapitalmangels auch nicht wieder aufsperren. Zur von Athen für den 6. Juli in Aussicht gestellten Öffnung der Banken wird es aus meiner Sicht nicht kommen, weil es keine neuen Notfallmittel der Europäischen Zentralbank geben wird, solange diese Regierung im Amt ist.

STANDARD: Die EZB könnte sogar einen Schritt weiter gehen und die bereits verliehenen 90 Milliarden Euro zurückverlangen, da das Programm für Griechenland nun ausgelaufen ist.

Kirkegaard: Es gibt gute Argumente dafür. Aber die EZB verhält sich sehr entgegenkommend und damit clever. Mit der jetzigen Vorgangsweise hat die Notenbank die Kapitalverkehrskontrollen erzwungen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Enhancing the global financial safety net through central-bank cooperation

Posted by hkarner - 12. September 2013

Edwin M. Truman (Peterson Institute), 10 September 2013, voxeu

Should we expect more global financial crises? This column argues that we should. Global financial crises are far from being a thing of the past because they are often caused by buildups of excessive domestic and foreign debt. To successfully address them and to limit negative spillovers, we need coordinated actions that prevent a contraction in global liquidity. Unless we establish this more robust, coordinated global financial safety net centred on central banks (which is where the money is), we may end up being incapable of addressing inevitable future crises.

The prospect that the Federal Reserve will soon ease off on its purchases of long-term assets has increased financial-market uncertainty and contributed to a retrenchment in global capital flows. This turbulence has revived discussion of the need to enhance the global financial safety net –i.e. the set of arrangements to provide international liquidity to countries facing sharp reversals in capital inflows despite following sound economic and financial policies.1 Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Three New Lessons of the Euro Crisis

Posted by hkarner - 9. April 2013

Date: 08-04-2013
Source: Project Syndicate

WASHINGTON, DC – While some observers argue that the key lesson of the eurozone’s baptism by fire is that greater fiscal and banking integration are needed to sustain the currency union, many economists pointed this out even before the euro’s introduction in 1999. The real lessons of the euro crisis lie elsewhere – and they are genuinely new and surprising.

The received wisdom about currency unions was that their optimality could be assessed on two grounds. First, were the regions to be united similar or dissimilar in terms of their economies’ vulnerability to external shocks? The more similar the regions, the more optimal the resulting currency area, because policy responses could be applied uniformly across its entire territory.

If economic structures were dissimilar, then the second criterion became critical: Were arrangements in place to adjust to asymmetric shocks? The two key arrangements that most economists emphasized were fiscal transfers, which could cushion shocks in badly affected regions, and labor mobility, which would allow workers from such regions to move to less affected ones. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe’s Cyprus blunder and its consequences

Posted by hkarner - 25. März 2013

Veron CC

Now we know at least which type of crisis it was (#3) hfk

Nicolas Véron, 25 March 2013, voxeu.

Senior Fellow, Bruegel; and Visiting Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics

The Monday morning Eurozone Cyprus bailout is now public, although details are scant. This column argues that this package cancels out some of the mistakes in last week’s package. Last week, the Troika should have vetoed the small-deposit tax and prepared a plan B for the Cypriot parliament’s rejection. Avoiding the risky scenario of a Cyprus exit will require further fiscal commitments from Eurozone partners. One possibility is a temporary, but EZ-wide, ‚deposit reinsurance‘, or backing of national deposit-guarantee schemes by the ESM.

The late Mike Mussa1 noted that “there are three types of financial crises:

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The first step in Europe’s banking union is achievable, but it won’t be easy

Posted by hkarner - 30. Oktober 2012

Nicolas Véron

Senior Fellow, Bruegel; and Visiting Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics

Nicolas Véron, 29 October 2012, voxeu

Eurozone leaders are firmly committed to a banking union, at least on paper. But do Member States agree on the current proposals? And what do these proposals leave out? This column argues that a dangerous combination of disagreements between Member States over contentious issues and pitfalls in the design of new institutions may well ensnare the Eurozone along its faltering path towards recovery.

The leaders of Eurozone countries issued an unprecedented commitment on 29 June; the statement began, “[w]e affirm that it is imperative to break the vicious circle between banks and sovereigns” (Euro Area Leaders 2012). This statement officially acknowledged leaders’ intention to break the ‘doom loop’ of the mutually-reinforcing deterioration of credit conditions afflicting weaker member states such as Spain and the banks headquartered in them. Severing this feedback loop will require a transfer of vast parts of banking supervision and policy apparatus from national- to European-level in the form of a new banking union. This transfer is probably a prerequisite for maintaining the integrity of Europe’s monetary union in any crisis-resolution strategy. Of equal importance is that leaders’ failure to deliver on their pledge would severely impair investors’ already-damaged confidence in the ability of Eurozone governments to act collectively.

The action plan outlined in the June statement defines a sequence of two explicit steps.

  • The ECB should first be endowed with broad supervisory powers and thus become the anchor of a ‘single supervisory mechanism’ for participating Member States.
  • Once the single supervisory mechanism is deemed effective, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) – the Eurozone’s newly-established intervention fund – would be able to recapitalise banks directly. Corresponding instruments are yet to be clarified, but would probably include common equity.

A woefully-incomplete plan Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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