Robert Barro 04 February 2016, voxeu
China’s diminished growth prospects have figured prominently in recent commentaries about global economic conditions and world stock markets (e.g. Frankel 2016). The general view, with which I concur, is that China will grow in the future at a much slower rate than it has in recent decades. This growth slowdown will reduce international trade and has probably contributed already to the depression in oil prices (Blanchard 2016).
Predicting rates of economic growth is difficult, but the best evidence for China or any other country comes from long-term data on international experience. This evidence happens to have generated a pair of ‘2s’. First, in the long run, each country’s growth rate of real per capita GDP is about 2% per year. Second, a country’s per capita GDP tends to converge to its long-run path at around 2% per year (dubbed the ‘iron law of convergence’). Finally, the level of each country’s long-run path depends on its individual characteristics and policies. For example, there are positive effects from better rule of law (institutional quality), greater international openness, higher life expectancy, lower fertility, higher saving rates, and lower inflation. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
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