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Posts Tagged ‘Pei’

China verliert den neuen Kalten Krieg

Posted by hkarner - 7. September 2018

Minxin Pei

Minxin Pei is a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and the author of China’s Crony Capitalism.

HONGKONG – Als 1991 die Sowjetunion zerfiel, wollte die Kommunistische Partei Chinas (KPC) die Gründe dafür herausfinden. Dies wurde zu einer Obsession. Die Thinktanks der Regierung, die sich mit diesem Thema beschäftigten, gaben Michail Gorbatschow einen Großteil der Schuld. Als Reformer sei er einfach nicht rücksichtslos genug gewesen, um die Sowjetunion zusammen zu halten. Aber die chinesische Führung betonte auch andere wichtige Faktoren, auf die sie aber heute selbst nicht zu achten scheint.

Sicherlich hat sich die KPC die erste große Lektion zu Herzen genommen: Entscheidend für politische Legitimität ist eine starke Wirtschaftsleistung. Und dass sich die Partei in den letzten Jahrzehnten auf die Steigerung des BIP-Wachstums konzentrierte, hat zu einem „Wirtschaftswunder“ geführt. Das nominale Pro-Kopf-Einkommen stieg von 333 Dollar im Jahr 1991 auf 7329 Dollar im letzten Jahr. Dies ist der bei weitem wichtigste Grund dafür, warum sich die KPC an der Macht halten konnte.

Aber die Sowjetpolitiker haben nicht nur die Wirtschaft vernachlässigt, sondern auch noch andere Fehler gemacht. Sie gerieten in ein teures Wettrüsten mit den Vereinigten Staaten, das sie nicht gewinnen konnten. Und sie überschätzten ihre imperialen Möglichkeiten, indem sie Geld und Ressourcen an Regimes verteilten, die wenig strategischen Wert besaßen und für ihr chronisches wirtschaftliches Missmanagement bekannt waren. Und heute, wo China in einen neuen „Kalten Krieg“ gegen die USA zieht, riskiert die KPC, dieselben katastrophalen Fehler zu wiederholen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China’s “Double-Freeze” Con

Posted by hkarner - 14. August 2017

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One Country, One System

Posted by hkarner - 30. Juni 2017

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China Needs a New Grand Strategy

Posted by hkarner - 10. Februar 2017

 

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The West’s Decline Would Hurt China

Posted by hkarner - 1. August 2016

Photo of Minxin Pei

Minxin Pei

Minxin Pei is Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College and a non-resident senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

JUL 31, 2016, Project Syndicate

HONG KONG – Official Chinese media are having a field day touting the dysfunction of Western democracies. Between the British vote to “Brexit” the European Union and the nomination of Donald Trump as the Republican candidate for the US presidency, not to mention increasingly frequent terrorist attacks, they have plenty of evidence. But the truth is that the West’s loss is not China’s gain.

The hope, of course, is that the current travails of democracies around the world could boost the credibility of the Chinese Communist Party. And, indeed, a commentary in People’s Daily, the CCP’s official newspaper, portrayed the Brexit vote as a reflection of the fundamental flaws of Western democracies. The same paper used Trump’s rise to show that, in the American system, political leaders are “helpless” to address “complex social conflicts” like racial tensions and other sources of popular discontent. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China’s One-Child Calamity

Posted by hkarner - 5. November 2015

Photo of Minxin PeiMinxin Pei

Minxin Pei is Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College and a non-resident senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

NOV 4, 2015, Project Syndicate

CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – The abolition of China’s 35-year-old one-child policy closes one of the darkest chapters in the country’s history. In the late 1970s, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), determined to boost economic growth, decided that population control was the answer. Millions of abortions, sterilizations, and infanticides later, its chickens are coming home to roost.

In raw numbers, the one-child policy’s human toll has been even greater than that of Mao’s Great Leap Forward, which caused a famine that killed around 36 million people from 1959 to 1961. And it exceeded that of the Cultural Revolution, in which large-scale political violence likely caused as many as another ten million deaths from 1966 to 1976.

As for the one-child policy, data released by China’s health ministry in 2013 indicate that from 1971 to 2012, 336 million abortions – more than the entire US population – were carried out in registered facilities alone. (Though the one-child policy was not introduced until about 1979, other family-planning policies were already in place at the time.) Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Politics of a Slowing China

Posted by hkarner - 10. Juli 2013

Date: 09-07-2013
Source: Project Syndicate

SINGAPORE – The recent financial turmoil in China, with interbank loan rates spiking to double digits within days, provides further confirmation that the world’s second-largest economy is headed for a hard landing. Fueled by massive credit growth (equivalent to 30% of GDP from 2008 to 2012), the Chinese economy has taken on a level of financial leverage that is the highest among emerging markets. This will not end well.

Indeed, a recent study by Nomura Securities finds that China’s financial-risk profile today uncannily resembles those of Thailand, Japan, Spain, and the United States on the eve of their financial crises. Each crisis-hit economy had increased its financial leverage – the ratio of domestic credit to GDP – by 30 percentage points over five years shortly before their credit bubbles popped.

Economists who insist that China’s financial leverage is not too high are a dwindling minority. Certainly the People’s Bank of China, which engineered a credit squeeze in June in an attempt to discourage loan growth, seems to believe that financial leverage has risen to dangerous levels. The only questions to be answered now concern when and how deleveraging will occur. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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