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Posts Tagged ‘oil price’

Niedriger Ölpreis macht Suezkanal unattraktiv

Posted by hkarner - 29. März 2016

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Der Suezkanal wird von deutlich weniger Schiffen genutzt als üblich. Die Handelsroute ist derzeit teurer als der Umweg über das Kap der Guten Hoffnung. Damit droht der Region eine neue Destabilisierung ins Haus: Ägypten hat Milliarden in den Ausbau des Kanals gesteckt.

Suez canal cc

Fast 20 Jahre und etliche Menschenleben hat der Bau des Suezkanal gekostet. Fertiggestellt 1869, konnten die Händler mit ihren Schiffen erheblich Zeit sparen. Der Suezkanal ist seitdem ein wichtiges Bindeglied zwischen dem Roten Meer und dem Mittelmeerraum. So wichtig, dass sich die Regierung sogar entschlossen hat, ihn auszubauen, weil die Schiffe in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten immer größer geworden sind und der Handel zugenommen hat.

Der Ausbau soll dem ägyptischen Präsidenten eigentlich höhere Staatseinnahmen ermöglichen Abd al-Fattah as-Sisi. Im August des vergangenen Jahres wurde eine 35 Kilometer lange zweite Rinne eingeweiht. Die Staatseinnahmen sollen mit dem Ausbau von 8 Prozent auf fast 20 Prozent erhöht werden. Bis 2023 sollte der Ertrag auf 13,2 Milliarden Dollar gesteigert werden. Doch die aktuellen Ölpreise machen Ägyptens Regierung einen Strich durch die Rechnung.

Denn immer mehr Schiffe entscheiden sich, eben nicht die Route durch den Suezkanal zu nehmen.  Stattdessen nehmen sie wieder die ursprüngliche Route über das Kapp der guten Hoffnung am südlichsten Punkt Afrikas. Immerhin über 100 Schiffe sind allein zwischen Oktober 2015 und Ende Dezember 2015 dort entlang gefahren.

Ich befasse mich seit acht Jahren mit der Schifffahrt“, zitiert die BBC Michelle Wiese Bockmann von OPIS Tanker Tracker. „Es ist sehr selten, einen solchen Betrieb rund um das Kap zu sehen.“ Und das, obwohl eine Umrundung des Kaps den Weg von Rotterdam nach Singapur um 6.500 Kilometer verlängert. Einer der triftigen Gründe für diese Entwicklung seien die niedrigen Ölpreise.

Der niedrige Ölpreis hat dafür gesorgt, dass der Schiffsdiesel ebenfalls gesunken ist: Von 400 Dollar (Mai 2015) auf 150 Dollar pro Tonne. Nimmt man die Angaben von Maersk, wonach eine Durchfahrt durch den Suezkanal etwa 350.000 Dollar pro Schiff und Passage kostet, ist eine Umfahrung des Kaps derzeit einfach billiger als eine Durchfahrt durch den Kanal. Hinzu kommt, dass die Schiffe, die den Kanal durchqueren auch für diese Zeit auch noch eine heimische Crew beherbergen muss.

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Oil and the Gulf states: After the party

Posted by hkarner - 25. März 2016

Date: 24-03-2016
Source: The Economist

The low oil price is manageable in the short term; but the Gulf states must make big changes to face the future

Dubai ccFAST cars whizz around, malls are full of expensive luxuries and cranes dominate the skyline. But scratch the shimmering surface of the Gulf and you soon find countries hurting from the low oil price, currently around $40 a barrel. Growth is slowing and unemployment is rising. Policymakers even dare utter a three-letter “t” word until recently taboo: tax.

Oil is central to the six Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states, which have used the windfall of the past few years to spend lavishly. Unlike many oil exporters, such as Nigeria and Venezuela, they have high foreign-exchange reserves and low debts to cover short-term gaps. But public spending is generous and the private sector is heavily reliant on oil to boot. To be sustainable in an era of lower prices, the rulers must change the structure of their economies.

The IMF reckons the lower oil price knocked $340 billion off Arab oil-exporting states’ government revenues in 2015. This year is looking worse. Moody’s, a ratings agency, this month downgraded Bahrain and Oman and put on watch the other four GCC states: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar. “It’s the end of an era for the Gulf,” says Razan Nasser of HSBC in Dubai. “And we’re only just starting to see the effects.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Oil Prices and the Global Economy: It’s Complicated

Posted by hkarner - 24. März 2016

Posted on by iMFdirect

By Maurice Obstfeld, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, and Rabah Arezki

Oil prices have been persistently low for well over a year and a half now, but as the April 2016 World Economic Outlook will document, the widely anticipated “shot in the arm” for the global economy has yet to materialize. We argue that, paradoxically, global benefits from low prices will likely appear only after prices have recovered somewhat, and advanced economies have made more progress surmounting the current low interest rate environment. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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EZB-Politik richtet Schaden an, muss aber nicht zum Crash führen

Posted by hkarner - 11. März 2016

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten  | 

Die EZB erzeugt mit der Verschärfung der Strafzinsen eine Verschuldungskaskade. Diese führt zu einer Scheinblüte, gefährdet aber langfristig das ganze Geldsystem. Die Chefvolkswirtin der Helaba setzt darauf, dass am Ende der geldpolitische Sachverstand der US-Notenbank und der Bank of England sowie der steigende Ölpreis wieder für Normalität sorgen werden.

Die Entscheidungen der EZB zur Senkung der Leitzinsen auf Null und zur Verschärfung der Strafzinsen für Banken sind auf breite Ablehnung gestoßen: Die meisten Analysten und Chefvolkswirte halten die Maßnahmen für falsch. Auch die Banken-Verbände sind dagegen, obwohl gerade die Banken-Werte am Tag nach der Entscheidung besonders profitiert haben.

Für den langfristigen Ausblick lohnt es sich, auf die Chefvolkswirtin der Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba), Gertrud R. Traud, zu hören: Sie ist schon lange eine Gegnerin der radikalen Geldpolitik und kritisiert die EZB: Die EZB erzeugt mit dieser Politik erst die Deflation, die sie eigentlich bekämpfen will“, sagte Traud den Deutschen Wirtschafts Nachrichten: „Die einzigen, die von der EZB-Politik wirklich profitieren, sind die Finanzminister in der Eurozone. Sie können weiter Schulden machen und können die Sanierung der Haushalte verschieben. Die EZB schafft den Attentismus, in dem die Staaten die Strukturreformen auf die lange Bank schieben können.“ Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Fear Factor in Global Markets

Posted by hkarner - 11. März 2016

Photo of Kenneth Rogoff

Kenneth Rogoff

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. His most recent book, co-authored with Carmen M. Reinhart, is This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.

MAR 10, 2016, Project Syndicate

CAMBRIDGE – The phenomenal market volatility of the past year owes much to genuine risks and uncertainties about factors such as Chinese growth, European banks, and the oil glut. For the first two months of this year, many investors were panicked that even the United States, the world’s most comforting growth story, was about to fall into recession. Indeed, among the experts who participate in the Wall Street Journal’s monthly poll, 21% believed a recession was around the corner. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Emerging-market debt: The well runs dry

Posted by hkarner - 8. März 2016

Date: 07-03-2016
Source: The Economist
Why borrowing in dollars is central to the business cycle in developing countries

OIL PRICES have perked up a bit, but producers are still reeling from the slump in crude prices last year. The boss of Pemex, Mexico’s state-owned oil firm, said this week that the company faced a “liquidity crunch”. Malaysia’s state oil firm is laying off workers. Petrobras, Brazil’s troubled oil giant, recently secured a $10 billion loan from the China Development Bank to help it to pay off maturing bonds. The trouble at these firms underlines broader concerns about the burden of corporate debt in emerging markets. A particular worry for resources firms is the rising cost of servicing dollar debts taken out when the greenback was much weaker than it is now. Short-term dollar loans to be repaid with earnings in falling currencies featured prominently in past emerging-market crises. But the concern about the role of dollar lending in the current cycle is different.

The numbers are startling. Corporate debt in 12 biggish emerging markets rose from around 60% of GDP in 2008 to more than 100% in 2015, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Places that experience a rapid run-up in debt often subsequently endure a sharp slowdown in GDP (see article). An extra twist is that big emerging-market firms were for a while able to borrow freely in dollars. By the middle of last year, the stock of dollar loans to non-bank borrowers in emerging markets, including companies and government, had reached $3.3 trillion. Indeed until recently, dollar credit to borrowers outside America was growing much more quickly than to borrowers within it. The fastest increase of all was in corporate bonds issued by emerging-market firms. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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US, China and Ultra-Low Oil Prices

Posted by hkarner - 4. März 2016

By on March 1, 2016  RGE EconoMonitor Steinbock

The US-led petrodollar era is being surpassed by a multipolar oil age in the Middle East. The transition is permeated by fundamental change and financial speculation that is penalizing the roles of the US and China in the region.   

As producers have scrambled to gain market share from competitors, prices remain more than 70% down from summer 2014. Recently, oil ministers from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela and Qatar announced an agreement to freeze their oil output levels if other major producers will follow suit. In the near-term, that is not likely.

The current status quo heralds more economic, market and military volatility in the world’s most explosive region.

Eclipse of US-Saudi partnership          

After the 1945 Yalta Conference, which effectively divided Europe, the ailing President Franklin D. Roosevelt rushed to USS Quincy where he met Saudi Arabia’s King Ibn Saud. Bypassing the Brits who had been courting the Saudis for oil, FDR and Saud agreed to a secret deal, which required Washington to provide Saudi Arabia military security in exchange for secure access to supplies of oil. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Politics of Financial Volatility

Posted by hkarner - 3. März 2016

Photo of Alexander Friedman

Alexander Friedman

Alexander Friedman, Group CEO of GAM Holding, was Global Chief Investment Officer of UBS Wealth Management, Chief Financial Officer of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and a White House fellow during the Clinton Administration.

MAR 2, 2016, Project Syndicate

LONDON – Twenty-four years ago, in the midst of an ugly US presidential campaign, Bill Clinton’s campaign manager neatly summed up his candidate’s message: “It’s the economy, stupid.” Today, as investors struggle to understand what is driving extreme volatility in the financial markets, there is an equally pithy explanation: It’s the stupid politics.

Central bank policies have moved from supporting the markets to potentially destabilizing them. Now markets are turning to structural reform and fiscal policy for assistance. In this light, current price movements should be viewed through the spectrum of geopolitics. And it is not a nice view.

Nowhere is this more evident than in the oil markets, where prices have collapsed, with both Brent and Crude now hovering around the $30-per-barrel level. The extent of oil’s fall, and consequent deflationary fears, is cited as a major factor behind overall market turmoil. In January, the correlation between crude oil prices and the S&P 500 reached the highest level since 1990. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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2008 Revisited?

Posted by hkarner - 3. März 2016

Photo of Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

MAR 2, 2016, Project Syndicate

NEW YORK – The question I am asked most often nowadays is this: Are we back to 2008 and another global financial crisis and recession?

My answer is a straightforward no, but that the recent episode of global financial market turmoil is likely to be more serious than any period of volatility and risk-off behavior since 2009. This is because there are now at least seven sources of global tail risk, as opposed to the single factors – the eurozone crisis, the Federal Reserve “taper tantrum,” a possible Greek exit from the eurozone, and a hard economic landing in China – that have fueled volatility in recent years. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Dow Rises Nearly 350 Points on Upbeat Data

Posted by hkarner - 2. März 2016

Date: 02-03-2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Improvements in auto sales, construction spending calm fears of a slowdown

Major U.S. stock indexes surged to their highest levels in nearly two months Tuesday on signs of improvement in the U.S. economy.

The broad rally was led by financial and technology shares, which fell sharply earlier this year as investors fretted about collateral damage from weak global growth, slumping corporate profits and low oil prices.

A handful of data across several sectors helped restore some confidence in the U.S. economy Tuesday, analysts and investors said. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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