Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘oil price’

The Deflation Bogeyman

Posted by hkarner - 2. März 2015

Date: 01-03-2015
Source: Project Syndicate


Martin Feldstein, Professor of Economics at Harvard University and President Emeritus of the National Bureau of Economic Research, chaired President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1982 to 1984. In 2006, he was appointed to President Bush’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, and, in 2009, was appointed to President Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board. Currently, he is on the board of directors of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Trilateral Commission, and the Group of 30, a non-profit, international body that seeks greater understanding of global economic issues.

CAMBRIDGE – The world’s major central banks are currently obsessed with the goal of raising their national inflation rates to their common target of about 2% per year. This is true for the United States, where the annual inflation rate was -0.1% over the past 12 months; for the United Kingdom, where the most recent data show 0.3% price growth; and for the eurozone, where consumer prices fell 0.6%. But is this a real problem? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Big Oil Faces Time of Reckoning

Posted by hkarner - 28. Januar 2015

Date: 28-01-2015
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Shell, BP and Others to Report Earnings, Reveal What Role Lower Crude Prices Played On Results

LONDON—In the coming days, the world’s biggest publicly traded oil companies will report fourth-quarter earnings, offering the best look yet at the bite lower crude prices have taken out of Big Oil.

For BP PLC, lower oil prices are just one headwind. A federal trial now under way in New Orleans could levy penalties of as much as $13.7 billion for the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, BP owns nearly 20% of Russian producer OAO Rosneft . Kremlin-controlled Rosneft faces Western sanctions on exporting certain oil-development technology to Russia. Rosneft is also struggling with the falling ruble and weaker oil prices.

BP, which has sold more than $40 billion in assets to pay cleanup and legal costs from the Gulf spill, is also trying to rein in costs that are higher than those of some competitors. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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2014 in review: why the oil price fell

Posted by hkarner - 31. Dezember 2014

Date: 30-12-2014
Source: The Economist

Supply, demand and expectations are the factors that influence the oil price.

In 2014 demand sagged—the result of weak economic activity and greater efficiency—while supply surged, chiefly thanks to the shale boom in America.

The US now produces more than 8m barrels a day (b/d). That put OPEC, the old oil-producers’ cartel, in a pickle. Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies are its richest members and have the lowest extraction costs.

They refused to cut production from OPEC’s 30m b/d limit to bolster the price, fearing (rightly) that the result would be lost market share and a windfall for enemies such as Iran and Russia. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How Cheap Oil Complicates Investing

Posted by hkarner - 15. Dezember 2014

Date: 14-12-2014
Source: The Wall Street Journal

While Retail Stocks Benefit, Others Take It on the Chin

For most Americans, this year’s sudden collapse of oil prices appears to be unqualified good news. Oil prices have dropped 45% since June, amid surging output from U.S. shale fields, strong Saudi Arabian production and weak demand from Asia and elsewhere. They dropped 12.2% just last week, closing Friday at $57.81 a barrel. Analysts at Credit Suisse and other banks say it will take years before oil prices return to $100-a-barrel levels.

For drivers and those who rely on oil to heat their homes, falling crude prices act as an unexpected bonus or tax refund.

But for investors? It gets a bit more complicated. Sure, energy stocks are taking it on the chin, as are companies that seem far removed from the oil patch—among them debt-laden North Dakota oil drillers, energy-service companies and junk bonds. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How Crude Oil’s Global Collapse Unfolded

Posted by hkarner - 13. Dezember 2014

Date: 12-12-2014
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Tracing the Plunge In Oil Prices Back to Texas

The sudden plunge in global crude oil prices from over $100 a barrel to under $65 has been portrayed as a showdown between Saudi Arabia and the U.S., but the reality is more complex.

Since the 1970s, Nigeria has sent a steady stream of high-quality crude oil to North American refineries. As recently as 2010, tankers delivered a million barrels a day.

Then came the U.S. energy boom. By July of this year, oil imports from Nigeria had fallen to zero.

Displaced by surging U.S. oil production, millions of barrels of Nigerian crude now head to India, Indonesia and China. But Middle Eastern nations are trying to entice the same buyers. This has set up a battle for market share that could reshape the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and fundamentally change the global market for oil. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Oil Prices Tumble Amid Global Supply Glut

Posted by hkarner - 12. Dezember 2014

Date: 11-12-2014
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Prices at Lows Not Seen Since Global Recession in 2009, Further Declines Expected

oil price 12_2014Oil prices took another tumble on Wednesday to fresh five-year lows on signs that the global supply glut driving the selloff is deepening.

New data out of the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, showed an unexpected increase in crude supplies last week. Meanwhile, the latest projections from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countriespoint to lower demand for the group’s oil in 2015.

The benchmark U.S. oil price slid 4.5% to $60.94 a barrel, the lowest level since July 2009 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the biggest one-day drop since Nov. 28, the session that followed OPEC’s decision to maintain its oil-output target.

Brent crude, a gauge of global prices, fell 3.9%, or $2.60, to $64.24 a barrel, also the lowest since July 2009 on ICE Futures Europe. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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OPEC: Making the best of a low price

Posted by hkarner - 6. Dezember 2014

Date: 04-12-2014
Source: The Economist

What is the oil cartel up to?

AN EFFECTIVE cartel requires three things: discipline, a dominant market position and barriers to entry. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lacks all three. Its members cheat on their quotas. It supplies only 30% of the world’s oil—too little to exercise control. New producers abound.

That is the backdrop to OPEC’s decision last month to make no attempt to bolster the oil price, sending it below $70 a barrel—a near 40% drop since June. Saudi Arabia, its most influential member, could have sent the price up single-handedly by deciding to pump less. Unlike cash-strapped oil exporters such as Venezuela, the kingdom can afford self-denial: it has savings of $900 billion.

But Saudi Arabia can also weather a low price: its production costs are $5-$6 a barrel—the lowest in the world. Moreover, history suggests most of the gains from any cut in its output would go to other producers, who would sell their oil for more while increasing their market share. Saudi Arabia did try the tactic in the early 1980s, cutting its output by three-quarters from 10m b/d in 1980 to under 2.5m in 1985-6. The result was higher prices, but also a boom in investment, and then production, in places such as Britain and Norway. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Wegbrechende Einnahmen: Ölpreis-Verfall würgt Russlands Wirtschaft ab

Posted by hkarner - 30. November 2014

Date: 29-11-2014

Der Absturz des Ölpreises kostet Russland Milliarden und gefährdet die ambitionierten Pläne des Kreml. Moskauer Hardliner vermuten gar eine gezielte “Spezialoperation” der Amerikaner, um Russland zu schwächen.

44 Prozent des Staatsbudgets sind Einnahmen aus dem Rohölgeschäft

Der Ölpreis sinkt, der Rubel gerät unter Druck, Moskaus Staatshaushalt kommt ins Schlingern: Für die älteren Herren im Kreml muss es sich anfühlen wie ein Déjà-vu.

Nikolai Patruschew etwa, 63 Jahre alt und Chef des mächtigen Sicherheitsrats, hat das Ende der Sowjetunion als KGB-Offizier erlebt. In einem Interview erklärte er jüngst, was er für die Ursache des Zusammenbruchs des Kommunismus hält: Die CIA habe die sowjetische Wirtschaft damals als Schwachpunkt ausgemacht – genauer gesagt, die “hohe Abhängigkeit des Staatshaushalts der UdSSR vom Energieträger-Export”.

Wiederholt sich die Geschichte? Der Ölpreis stürzt seit Wochen auf immer neue Tiefststände. Die Opec – angeführt von Saudi-Arabien – widersetzt sich russischen Bitten, die Fördermenge zu drosseln, um die Preise zu stabilisieren. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Erzfeinde im Nahen Osten: Saudi-Arabien eröffnet Öl-Krieg gegen Iran

Posted by hkarner - 29. November 2014

Date: 28-11-2014
Source: Spiegel

Öl-Taktik der Saudis: Schwarzes Gold zum Schleuderpreis

Der mickrige Ölpreis kostet Saudi-Arabien Milliarden. Doch die Scheichs nehmen die Verluste hin – um den Erzfeind Iran zu treffen. Mittelfristig schaden sie mit der Dumping-Taktik aber auch ihrem wichtigsten Partner: den USA.

Riad – Die magische Grenze liegt bei 85 US-Dollar. So viel muss das Barrel Rohöl im Jahresschnitt kosten, damit Saudi-Arabien keine Verluste macht. Derzeit liegt der Ölpreis bei nur 72 Dollar. Trotzdem hat Riads Ölminister Ali al-Naimi beim Opec-Treffen in Wien eine Drosselung der Förderung verhindert – und hinterher von einer “weisen Entscheidung” gesprochen.

Dabei könnte das Kartell die Produktion reduzieren und damit den Ölpreis wieder in die Höhe treiben. Doch Saudi-Arabiens Herrscher verzichten lieber auf bares Geld.
Sie können es sich leisten: Unter den erdölexportierenden Ländern steht Saudi-Arabien so gut da wie kaum ein anderer Staat. Das Königshaus sitzt auf Finanzreserven in Höhe von 735 Milliarden US-Dollar – ungefähr viermal soviel wie Apple, das derzeit wertvollste Unternehmen der Welt. Deshalb kann es sich einen Preiskrieg gegen seine Konkurrenten auf dem Öl-Markt liefern – allen voran gegen Iran, Russland und die USA.

Iran beklagt “Krieg der Saudis gegen uns” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Oil-Glut Move Spurs Further Losses

Posted by hkarner - 6. November 2014

Date: 05-11-2014
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Crude Hits a Three-Year Low in Wake of Lower Saudi Prices; Bearish Hedge Funds Find a Winner

Oil prices plunged to new lows Tuesday on renewed concerns about a global supply glut, extending a selloff that has rattled financial markets, driven down shares of energy companies and stoked alarm among government officials.

U.S. oil futures fell $1.59, or 2%, to $77.19 a barrel, a fresh three-year low, and Brent crude, the global benchmark, slid $1.96, or 2.3%, to $82.82 a barrel, a new four-year low.

Saudi Arabia’s surprise price cut for its U.S. oil deliveries this week has driven the latest swoon, with U.S. oil prices down 4% since the announcement. The move suggests the world’s largest oil exporter is more concerned with maintaining production volume and market share than shoring up prices through output cuts, experts say.

Some nimble investors are making money off the steep slide. Hedge-fund managers including Pierre Andurand and the team of George “Beau” Taylor and Trevor Woods are among those who have reaped profits by correctly predicting rising global crude-oil output would overwhelm the market and send prices lower. They placed bets, known as shorts, that prices in the futures market would fall and were guided by research that closely tracked the flow of physical oil from wells and pipelines to storage tanks and refineries, according to people familiar with their trading strategies. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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