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Posts Tagged ‘oil price’

The Sun Gets Brighter

Posted by hkarner - 4. Februar 2016

Date: 04-02-2016
Source: Business Standard

Oil prices are dropping and so, too, are the capital costs of solar energy installations. “Solar power is now cheaper than what electricity would cost if based on either oil at $50 per barrel, or its coal equivalent – or for that matter liquefied natural gas,” writes T.N. Ninan for Business Standard. “Solar energy has become the new energy source in many countries in Africa and South America, and of course in India with its massive solar energy programme.” Increased demand for fossil fuels will come from China and India as the developed world continues to innovate on fuel efficiency and electric vehicles. Low oil prices will reduce foreign employment in oil fields and remittances. Governments in emerging and developed economies need to anticipate trends in the energy industry, for both fossil fuels and alternatives, and be competitive by responding with policies on carbon taxes, subsidies, infrastructure and emissions. – YaleGlobal

It is possible that an important stress-point for the economy – oil prices – has become less of a risk than at any other time since 1970 Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Death Throes of Oil

Posted by hkarner - 4. Februar 2016

Photo of Harold James

Harold James

Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation. A specialist on German economic history and on globalization, he is the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle, Krupp: A History of the Legendary German Firm, and Making the European Monetary Union.

FEB 3, 2016, Project Syndicate

PRINCETON – The price of oil is often regarded as a sort of thermometer to measure the health of the world economy. What is less often noted is that it can also serve as a barometer – warning of approaching geopolitical storms. Indeed, the dramatic plunge in the price of a barrel of crude – from nearly $150 in June 2008 to around $30 today – is likely to fuel continued upheaval far beyond the world’s energy and commodity markets, with particularly worrying implications for the European Union.

Sinking oil prices are clearly correlated with financial instability, but the lines of causation do not point in the direction most pundits seem to believe. On the contrary, when the price of oil rises, so do costs in most rich, industrialized economies; thus, a rising oil price acts as a brake on growth. Surges in the price of oil led to global recessions in 1973, 1979, 2000, and 2008. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Three Fears Sinking Global Markets

Posted by hkarner - 29. Januar 2016

Photo of Anatole Kaletsky

Anatole Kaletsky

Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0, The Birth of a New Economy, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.

JAN 29, 2016, Project Syndicate

LONDON – January is usually expected to be a good month for stock markets, with new money gushing into investment funds, while tax-related selling abates at the end of the year. Although the data on investment returns in the United States actually show that January profits have historically been on only slightly better than the monthly norm, the widespread belief in a bullish “January effect” has made the weakness of stock markets around the world this year all the more shocking.

But the pessimists have a point, even if they sometimes overstate the January magic. According to statisticians at Reuters, this year started with Wall Street’s biggest first-week fall in over a century, and the 8% monthly decline in the MSCI world index made January’s performance worse than 96% of the months on record. So, just how worried about the world economy should we be? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The trade consequences of the oil price

Posted by hkarner - 21. Januar 2016

Pierre-Louis Vézina, David von Below 20 January 2016, voxeu

Pierre-Louis Vézina

King’s College London

Economist, Copenhagen Economics

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Subdued Growth, Diminished Prospects, Action Needed

Posted by hkarner - 20. Januar 2016

Posted on by iMFdirect

By Maurice ObstfeldObstfeld

At the start of 2016, turbulence in financial markets has returned amid renewed concern about risks to global economic growth. The fundamental forces that underlay our October World Economic Outlook projections have not dissipated, and in some respects have intensified, leading us to trim our expectations for future medium-term growth of the world economy.

In the World Economic Outlook Update released today, we still, however, expect growth to pick up this year in most countries.

Despite the modesty of the reduction we see in general growth prospects and the promise of improvement in coming years, downside risks to our central scenario have intensified. In our view, a focus on these risks is the main factor driving recent developments in financial markets.

We may be in for a bumpy ride this year, especially in the emerging and developing world.

Fundamental to the current global conjuncture are the same three forces we highlighted in October: China’s slower growth and rising financial-market risks amid a process of macroeconomic rebalancing away from the traditional industrial and construction sectors; the fall in commodity prices, notably the price of oil; and asynchronous trends in monetary policies, especially between the United States and most other advanced economies. The effects continue to play out. Since mid-October, for example, the price of base metals has declined a further 15 percent while that of oil has declined a further 40 percent.

Paradoxically, while risk-averse investors have focused on the potential negative impacts of these developments, each of them is two-sided and carries a silver lining that should make the negative effects on total world growth less dire than markets now seem to expect—especially over the longer term. China’s rebalancing is essential for its transition to a more sustainable and resilient consumption-based growth model; lower commodity prices benefit consumers and lower production costs; and the Federal Reserve’s well communicated interest-rate increase of December reflects the relatively strong performance of the United States economy, still the world’s largest. Yet, these changes also pose big adjustment challenges for many countries, and it is those that dominate the medium-term outlook.

Global outlook

What are the specific numbers? We project that global economic growth of 3.1 percent in 2015 will accelerate to 3.4 percent in 2016 and 3.6 percent in 2017. The 2016 and 2017 figures are both 0.2 percentage point below the levels we hoped for in October. While emerging market and developing economies account for more than two-thirds of this downward revision, we project they will accelerate moderately in both 2016 and 2017, compared to last year. Advanced economies will accelerate slightly in both 2016 and 2017, but likewise, to growth rates slightly below those that the last World Economic Outlook foresaw.

As always, aggregate averages conceal considerable diversity among individual countries. The small downgrade in our projection of advanced-economy growth is driven by slightly less optimism about the United States. Growth prospects for the euro area, the United Kingdom, and Japan are broadly unchanged.

Looming large in the emerging and developing group are countries facing especially severe multiple challenges and strongly negative 2015 growth, for example, Brazil and Russia (along with its CIS neighbors), whose sharp contractions this year should decelerate over the coming two-year period. However, while reduced from earlier years, growth looks better in other Latin American economies and in emerging and developing Europe. Growth prospects in parts of Asia have diminished somewhat as a result of the unexpectedly big external spillovers from China’s growth transition. In contrast, India, a major net commodity importer, continues to grow at the fastest pace among large emerging economies.

Downside risks

There are a number of specific downside risks to our scenario, and as always, events in an important stressed economy can spill over to others through effects on trade, asset and commodity prices, and confidence.

One downside risk is that China’s economy could encounter rough patches where growth slows more than expected, directly affecting trade partners while disturbing foreign exchange and other financial markets worldwide. We have maintained our 2016 and 2017 growth assessments for China in light of the robust development of its service and “new economy” sectors, as well as fiscal policy actions aimed at supporting demand. But the picture could change farther down the road. Continued strong growth in China is dependent on its authorities’ prompt, decisive action to address remaining imbalances and legacies of past ones. In addition, clear communication of a coherent overall policy strategy, including with respect to the yuan’s exchange rate, is critical both for domestic stability and that of markets abroad.

Depreciating currencies have been useful shock absorbers for many emerging and developing economies, but could eventually expose corporate balance-sheet weaknesses where there are foreign-currency exposures. Related, private capital inflows to emerging and frontier markets came to a virtual halt in the third quarter of 2015, with China accounting for most of the fall. The acceleration and broadening of this trend is a potential threat despite the enhanced buffers provided by international reserves. Another stress indicator is the general increase in sovereign spreads in Latin America and Africa; and a further increase in global risk aversion, for whatever reason, could lead to even tighter financial conditions for vulnerable economies.

Finally, political and geopolitical risks have intensified, not receded, in recent months. Prominent among these, refugee outflows from Syria and Iraq are imposing extreme burdens on neighboring countries and have spilled over into Europe, sparking political discord within the European Union and threatening its current framework for free labor mobility. Rapid absorption of refugees into labor markets will ultimately lift output, but will place up-front demands on public budgets. As difficult as are the challenges for the receiving countries, we must not lose sight of the source-country security concerns that give rise to both internal and external displacements. These impose immense costs, first of all on the refugees themselves.

Need for action

In advanced economies, currently projected growth rates are too low rapidly to reduce high unemployment and other legacies of recent crises, or to spark strong growth in real wages. In emerging and developing economies, currently projected growth rates substantially slow convergence to higher incomes. Action is needed. Policy recommendations must be country-specific, but at a general level there are three priorities.

First, to support aggregate demand in the face of subdued activity and, in some countries, continuing deflationary pressures.

Second, to support economic efficiency and long-term economic growth in the face of evidence that potential growth rates have fallen worldwide over the past decade. An important element here is structural reform, which will be a main theme of the April 2016 World Economic Outlook.

A final need is to further strengthen and widen the international safety net, bolstering global resilience to whatever may lie ahead.

See also Obstfeld video and Infographic.


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Moskau nervös: Russland rutscht unerwartet schnell in die Rezession

Posted by hkarner - 18. Januar 2016


Russland ist unerwartet schnell in eine ernste Rezession gerutscht. Der russische Wirtschaftsminister präsentierte am Montag schlechte Zahlen. Der Ölpreis ist zu niedrig, dass Moskau wenig Spielraum hat, um diese Entwicklung einzufangen. Die geplante Privatisierung von Rosneft ist unter den aktuellen Marktbedingungen fast aussichtslos.

Die russische Wirtschaft ist 2015 in die Rezession gerutscht. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt sei um 3,8 oder 3,9 Prozent geschrumpft, zitierte die Nachrichtenagentur Tass am Montag Wirtschaftsminister Alexej Uljukajew. 2014 war es noch um 0,6 Prozent gewachsen. Dem einst boomenden Schwellenland setzen der Einbruch der Ölpreise und die westlichen Sanktionen zu, eine Reaktion auf das russische Vorgehen auf der Krim. Der Internationale Währungsfonds rechnet in diesem Jahr mit einem erneuten Rückgang der Wirtschaftsleistung, der aber mit 0,6 Prozent deutlich kleiner ausfallen dürfte. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Putins Ölkatastrophe treibt Russland in den Ruin

Posted by hkarner - 16. Januar 2016

Date: 16-01-2016
Source: Die Welt

pUTIN IN TROUBLEPutin brachte Russland Wohlstand. Die jüngste Krise wurzelt in einer Verschwörung. So sehen es viele Russen. Doch ihr Präsident war nur Profiteur einer historisch einmaligen Epoche – die zu Ende ist.

Die Russen sagen “WWP”, wenn sie den Herrn des Landes meinen, ihren Präsidenten. Es sind die Initialen aus Vor-, Vaters- und Familiennamen: W(ladimir) W(ladimirowitsch) P(utin). Es klingt hart und bedeutungsvoll. Putin, der Unumschränkte. Putin, der Allmächtige.

Ein Zufall, dass dasselbe Akronym im Russischen das Bruttoinlandsprodukt bezeichnet. W(alovyj) W(nutrenniy) P(rodukt) heißt die Kennzahl, die die Wirtschaftsleistung eines Jahres innerhalb der Landesgrenzen angibt. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Gegen den Dollar: Russland plant eigenen Richtwert für Erdöl

Posted by hkarner - 14. Januar 2016

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten  | 

Russland arbeitet an einem eigenen Richtwert für seine Ölverkäufe. Dieser soll die bestehende Bindung an den „Benchmark“ Brent ablösen. Der Schritt könnte einschneidende Folgen für die Weltleitwährung Dollar und die globale Dominanz der USA nach sich ziehen.

Russland plant die Einführung eines eigenen Richtwerts zur Abrechnung seines Erdöls im internationalen Handel. Die Regierung des Landes hat laut Reuters entsprechende Pläne bekanntgegeben. Russlands größte Rohstoffbörse St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPIMEX) habe bereits im November den Handel mit Termingeschäften der russischen Standardmarke „Urals“ simuliert. „Unser Ziel besteht darin, einen Platz neben den großen Richtwerten einzunehmen. Derzeit liegt die Preissetzung für die meisten unserer Exporte, welche unser Staatsbudget festlegt, in den Händen unserer Partner“, sagte ein SPIMEX-Repräsentant zu Russia Today. Ein russischer „Benchmark“ für Öl hätte weitreichende Folgen für den bisher fast ausschließlich in Dollar abgerechneten Welthandel.

Bislang gilt bei der Abrechnung russischen Öls der Richtwert für die Nordseesorte Brent, welcher in Dollar notiert. Die Marke Brent findet gegenwärtig für etwa zwei Drittel des weltweit gehandelten Öls Anwendung, obwohl es nur rund ein Prozent der tatsächlichen täglichen Fördermenge ausmacht. Schon aus diesem Grund sind die Pläne Russlands, einem der weltgrößten Produzenten von Erdöl, verständlich. Hinzu kommt, dass die Preisgestaltung der Marke Brent unter dem Einfluss großer Investmentbanken wie Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP MorganChase und Citibank steht. Dies ermöglicht es der Wall Street, den Preis für einen Großteil der Weltfördermenge zu bestimmen. Das andere weltweit anerkannte Instrument stellt die ebenfalls am Dollar orientierte Richtmarke WTI dar. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Medwedew: Russland muss sich auf das Schlimmste vorbereiten

Posted by hkarner - 13. Januar 2016

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten  | 

Mit einer ungewöhnlich drastischen Wortmeldung beschreibt Premier Medwedew die Lage Russlands. Der niedrige Ölpreis bereitet der Regierung offenbar große Sorgen. Sie versucht, mit drastischen Sparmaßnahmen gegenzusteuern. Doch das ist kein langfristiges Konzept.

Medwedew Putin ccSorgen sich um die Zukunft Russlands: Premier Dimitri Medwedew und Präsident Wladimir Putin.

Der freie Fall des Ölpreises bringt den Haushalt Russlands erheblich unter Druck. Das Land müsse sich wirtschaftlich auf das Schlimmste vorbereiten, sagte Ministerpräsident Dmitri Medwedew am Mittwoch. Finanzminister Anton Siluanow zufolge wäre das Budget allenfalls bei einem Ölpreis von 82 Dollar je Barrel ausgeglichen. Der Staat hat aber mit 50 Dollar kalkuliert – bei den aktuellen Preisen von knapp über der 30-Dollar-Marke sind diese Berechnungen nun längst Makulatur. Bereits absehbar ist, dass die Defizitlatte für den Haushalt von drei Prozent der Wirtschaftsleistung klar gerissen wird. Die Minister sollen jetzt in ihren Bereichen den Rotstift ansetzen und zehnprozentige Kürzungen vornehmen. Davon ausgenommen sind jedoch ‚heilige Kühe‘ wie Rentenzahlungen und die Gehaltsbezüge im Öffentlichen Dienst.

Russland stellt sich laut Wirtschaftsminister Alexej Uljukajew darauf ein, dass sich der Ölpreis auf Dauer nicht mehr erholen wird: „Es ist zu befürchten, dass er auf 15 bis 20 Dollar absackt.“ Die anhaltend niedrigen Öl- und Gaspreise setzen Russland Präsident Wladimir Putin zufolge noch stärker zu als die Sanktionen des Westens wegen der Krim-Krise. Das Geschäft mit diesen Bodenschätzen macht den Löwenanteil der Einkünfte der gesamten Exportwirtschaft aus. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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$10 Oil? Sure, Why Not

Posted by hkarner - 13. Januar 2016

Date: 13-01-2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Investment banks have been falling over themselves the past week to call for ever-lower oil prices.

Banks have been throwing out increasingly low numbers as “worst-case scenario” oil prices, though their base-case forecasts typically call for the market to rise from current prices later this year.

Goldman Sachs shocked traders in September with a call for oil to fall as low as $20 a barrel, but that level now seems closer than ever, with WTI dipping below $30 today.

Morgan Stanley joined Goldman on Monday in the $20 club. Unlike Goldman, which based its forecast on growing inventories, Morgan Stanley said that oil could fall to $20 under pressure from a strengthening dollar. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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