Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Nixon’

Don’t Rule Out an EU-U.S. Trade War

Posted by hkarner - 20. April 2018

Date: 19-04-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon

Europe is demanding the Trump administration permanently exempt it from tariffs. A flashpoint in the dispute comes May 1

The European Union shares U.S concerns about Chinese trade practices but may soon find itself in a trade war of its own with Washington.

So far, the European Union has managed to stay out of the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Along with other U.S. allies, it negotiated for itself a temporary exemption from the tariffs on imported steel that President Donald Trump announced last month, citing national security concerns. Since then, the U.S. has introduced a further $50 billion of tariffs on an extensive list of Chinese imports in retaliation for what it claims is theft of intellectual property and has threatened a further $100 billion. The EU shares many of the U.S.’s concerns about Chinese trade practices and would like to work with the U.S. to put pressure on China to agree to a reform of global trading rules that would address Chinese overcapacity problems. Yet there is a real risk that the EU and U.S. may soon find themselves embroiled in a trade war of their own. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Can the EU Break Out of Its Political Limbo?

Posted by hkarner - 17. April 2018

Date: 16-04-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon

June summit will test leadership’s ability to reduce the risk of another sovereign crisis, and settle its asylum policy

French President Emmanuel Macron has given fresh urgency to the debate over completing the eurozone’s banking union, strengthening its bailout funds and creating a new central fiscal capacity to smooth shocks.

For the last two years, the European Union has been stuck in limbo. During this time, its priority has been simply to survive.

In mid-2016, in the wake of the Brexit referendum, with the migration crisis and eurozone debt crisis still fresh in the memory, and with euroskeptic parties riding high in the polls ahead of looming elections in key member states, it seemed as if it might fall apart.

The fact that it didn’t is partly due to the willingness of mainstream politicians to work together in grand coalitions and minority governments to keep the euroskeptics away from power. It is also partly due to the unexpected strength of the economic recovery and the dramatic fall in the rate of  illegal migration—but also because EU leaders agreed to defer difficult decisions. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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No Hope: The Nation States are Killing the EU

Posted by hkarner - 16. März 2018

Date: 15-03-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon
Subject: The Dark Underbelly of Europe’s Financial System

The EU has rules to guard against money laundering, but members must ensure the law is enforced

The EU has introduced a single rule book to cover customer protection and anti-money laundering, but it is up to domestic agencies to ensure the law is enforced

Something is rotten in the European financial system.

The U.K.’s status as a global capital of money laundering is once again back in the spotlight following the attempted murder of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter, which the British government has blamed on Russia. The scandal has revived concerns about the U.K.’s remarkable openness to the mysteriously amassed fortunes of Russian oligarchs with links to Russian President Vladimir Putin and the extraordinary role that U.K.-registered companies have played in some of the biggest money-laundering scandals that have surfaced in Europe in recent years.

But the current focus on London follows a string of disturbing stories that has exposed the dark underbelly of the financial system across the continent. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italian Election Dims Hopes of Eurozone Reform

Posted by hkarner - 13. März 2018

Date: 12-03-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon

Rise of antiestablishment parties makes prospect of overhaul at June summit increasingly unlikely

Luigi Di Maio, the 5 Star Movement party’s leader and candidate for the post of Italian prime minister, celebrated with the party’s showing in Italian elections last week.

The key question that European policy makers have been debating for the past year is this: Should reforms to strengthen the eurozone take place before or after an Italian crisis?

Of course, no one publicly puts it quite so starkly.

Instead, they hide behind technical language: They argue over whether the eurozone should prioritize “risk reduction” or “risk sharing.” But everyone knows what they mean.

Should the eurozone arm itself with tools to tackle a Greek-style debt crisis in Italy—and perhaps even forestall it? Or should it wait until the markets conclude that the European Union’s third-largest economy’s debts are unsustainable and then clean up the mess?

Last week, Italians answered the question for themselves. By voting to fill more than half their parliament with representatives of antiestablishment, euroskeptic parties, they almost certainly dashed any realistic prospect of eurozone leaders agreeing at a June summit to a package of far-reaching changes to the way that the eurozone is managed. That would include proposals to create a common budget to be overseen by a eurozone finance minister and the creation of a common deposit guarantee scheme to underpin the entire eurozone banking system. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Bulgaria Question Brings the EU’s Identity Crisis into Focus

Posted by hkarner - 27. Februar 2018

Date: 26-02-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon

In strict legal terms, the poorest country in the EU should be allowed in—so is the community based on rule of law?

Bulgaria is set to formally apply to enter the Exchange Rate Mechanism, a staging post to full euro membership, by the end of June. But many eurozone policy makers are reluctant to do so, arguing that its economy is too weak and that it would invite a repeat of the troubles that have beset financially stressed eurozone countries.

European policy makers are forever debating how best to reform the European Union. But it is usually only when the EU is forced by pressure of events to make decisions that these theoretical debates are resolved and its future shape is determined. One such decision is fast approaching: Should Bulgaria be allowed to join the euro? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Question for U.K. Ministers: What Were You After With Brexit?

Posted by hkarner - 23. Februar 2018

Date: 22-02-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon

Cabinet members seem better able to express what they don’t want to see changed than what they do

As British government ministers head to Chequers, the prime minister’s country house, to try again to agree on a Brexit strategy, they might usefully ask themselves a simple question: What exactly are they trying to achieve?

After a week of speechifying by ministers, it is easier to identify what the government wants to stay the same than to change. Prime Minister Theresa May wants no change to the U.K.’s security cooperation with EU, which means continued participation in the European Arrest Warrant and Europol; Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson extols the virtues of free movement—at least for British citizens; David Davis, the Brexit minister, insists the government has no intention of turning itself into a European version of laissez-faire Singapore—who could think such a thing?—but instead wants to lead a global “regulatory race to the top,” out-regulating even those bureaucratic laggards in Brussels while enthusiastically adopting global standards that are for reasons unexplained less noxious than EU ones. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The EU’s Real Rule-of-Law Crisis

Posted by hkarner - 13. Februar 2018

Date: 12-02-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon

Frustration with uneven application of EU law is a feature of the domestic politics of all member states

It has become accepted wisdom to talk of the European Union being afflicted by a rule-of-law crisis. This is often portrayed as the latest threat to the EU’s cohesion, following hard on the heels of the eurozone debt crisis and the migration crisis.

The focus of this new crisis is central and Eastern Europe, where authoritarian governments are alleged to be driving through reforms that undermine important democratic safeguards including the freedom of the press and the independence of the judiciary. This perceived assault on core liberal democratic values has fueled talk of an emerging East-West split that could lead to further EU fragmentation. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Strong Economic Leadership Can Stem Europe’s Populist Tide

Posted by hkarner - 9. Januar 2018

Date: 08-01-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon
The EU rode out the populist shocks of 2017. What about 2018?

In Italy, Luigi Di Maio is the premier nominee for the antiestablishment 5 Star Movement.

The European Union survived the great populist rebellion of 2017, but few believe the threat from antiestablishment euroskeptic parties has gone away.

Populist parties didn’t win any elections last year, but they made significant gains: The far-right Freedom Party is now the largest opposition party in the Netherlands; the far-right Alternative for Germany party likewise will be Germany’s largest opposition party if Chancellor Angela Merkel succeeds in forming another grand coalition from her Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats; in Austria, the far-right Freedom Party is the junior coalition partner in the new government. Meanwhile the Polish and Hungarian governments continue to pursue populist domestic agendas Brussels believes threaten the rule of law.

True, the prospects for a major populist breakthrough in 2018 look slim. The major elections this year are in Italy, Hungary and Sweden. In Hungary, no change is expected. Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party has a substantial lead over the far-right Nationalist Jobbik party. In Sweden, support for the nationalist Sweden Democrats party has slumped to 14.5% from a peak of over 20% in 2015 at the height of the refugee crisis, according to a major poll published in December. The main focus is therefore on Italy, where the antiestablishment 5 Star Movement leads the polls and the euroskeptic Lega is also gaining support. But under the current electoral law, most analysts expect an inconclusive outcome that will require the formation of a broad coalition. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Biggest Risk to the Eurozone’s Booming Economy: Inflation

Posted by hkarner - 5. Januar 2018

Date: 04-01-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon

What did forecasters miss in 2017 and what might they be missing this time?

For the first time in a decade, economic forecasters appear to be unambiguously optimistic about the prospects for the eurozone economy. Perhaps that isn’t surprising given how badly wrong-footed they were by the strength of the recovery in 2017.

A year ago, the European Central Bank was forecasting growth of 1.7% while the consensus among independent forecasters was 1.3%. Yet the ECB now reckons that the eurozone grew in 2017 by 2.4%. Given that it was the fourth consecutive year of economic growth, ECB board member Benoît Coeuré insists this should no longer be called a recovery but an expansion. Some even call it a boom.

Certainly the latest data points to a very strong start to the New Year. Business and consumer confidence in the eurozone are at their highest levels since 2001, according to the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator, while the latest surveys of purchasing managers show optimism among manufacturers at record levels and export orders at new highs. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How the EU Survived the Populist Wave in 2017

Posted by hkarner - 19. Dezember 2017

Date: 18-12-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon

Rather than getting pulled apart, the bloc is pursuing deeper cooperation as the economy thrives

This was supposed to be the year that the European Union imploded—the year when the populist revolts that engulfed the U.S. and the U.K. in 2016 would spread to the continent, toppling mainstream governments and withdrawing popular consent for European integration.

The tensions created by the eurozone debt crisis and the migration crisis would be finally laid bare in elections in the Netherlands, France, Germany and Austria, many pundits warned. The centrifugal forces pulling Europe apart would finally overwhelm the centripetal forces binding it together.

Yet the EU ends the year in better shape and more united than it has been for years. The populist revolt never materialized.

Instead, Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the French presidential election has injected new energy into the cause of European integration. Even the new Austrian government, which will include the far right Freedom Party following a deal reached last week, is committed to a pro-European agenda. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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