Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Nixon’

Britain Still Believes in Fantasies on Brexit

Posted by hkarner - 23. Juni 2017

Date: 22-06-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon

The government of Theresa May has far less leverage in the talks than it is willing to acknowledge

Prime Minister Theresa May and her husband Philip departing 10 Downing Street on Wednesday for the opening of Parliament.

No one should have been surprised that the Brexit talks began this week with an immediate capitulation by the U.K. government over the sequence of topics to be treated. Brexit minister David Davis had boasted during the recent campaign that the European Union’s refusal to discuss a trade deal until sufficient progress had been made on settling Britain’s outstanding budget obligations and securing the rights of EU and British citizens would launch “the fight of the summer.” That was revealed to be empty bravado, given that the U.K. needs a deal far more than the EU does. Yet even now that Britain’s lack of leverage has been laid bare, an air of unreality remains about much of the Brexit debate.

One fantasy that refuses to die is the notion that the EU might somehow be persuaded to water down the principle of free movement of citizens, thus allowing the U.K. to restrict EU migration while retaining its membership in the single market. This idea first surfaced during David Cameron’s doomed attempt to rewrite the free-movement rules before the Brexit referendum. It reappeared this week in a new campaign by more than 50 Labour politicians who want the U.K. to remain inside a “reformed single market.” Yet it should be obvious by now that there is no appetite in the EU to water down the right of free movement, a point even Prime Minister Theresa May has conceded. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Now Britain, Not France, Risks Being ‘Sick Man’ of Europe

Posted by hkarner - 16. Juni 2017

Date: 15-06-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon

Despite the triumphalism of Brexit advocates, the U.K.’s cross-Channel rival is better placed for growth

It is often underappreciated just how quickly a country’s fortunes can change. In 2004, Germany was considered the sick man of Europe. Five years later, after some judicious reforms to its labor market, it was Europe’s economic powerhouse. Four years ago, Spain was widely dismissed as an economic basket case, one step away from national bankruptcy and euro exit. Yet since mid-2013, it has been growing at around 3% a year and created two million jobs.

That points to a second aspect to economic turnarounds: They are rarely obvious at the time, even to the economists, policy makers and pundits paid to spot these things. Famously, 364 distinguished economists—among them Mervyn King, who later became governor of the Bank of England—wrote to the Times in 1981 to warn that Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s policies were doomed to fail. Yet history shows that Britain’s recovery began at almost exactly that moment, and five years later its economy was booming. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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U.K. Election Sows More Doubt Than Hope

Posted by hkarner - 9. Juni 2017

Date: 08-06-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon

Whether Theresa May has the skills to reach a good deal with the EU seems less clear than two months ago

It seems strange to recall now, but when Theresa May announced her plan in April for a snap general election in June, the markets reacted with relief. The pound rallied and stocks rose. The expectation was that the British prime minister would secure a landslide victory over Labour, giving her a mandate to face down hard-line Brexiters prepared to risk the U.K. crashing out of the European Union if no deal is reached in the next two years.

The market’s optimism was shared in Brussels and other European capitals, where there were concerns that Mrs. May lacked the political capital to make the concessions they believed necessary to reach the “deep and special partnership” she has said she seeks with the EU.

Seven weeks later, it is hard to be so optimistic about Britain’s outlook. Though the polls have tightened dramatically over the course of the campaign, Mrs. May is still widely expected to win with an increased majority and the pound remains above its level when the election was called. But the campaign has altered the political landscape in unexpected ways that could have profound consequences for the economy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Post-Brexit EU Unity May Not Hold

Posted by hkarner - 26. Mai 2017

Date: 25-05-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon

The biggest surprise of Brexit has been the remarkable cohesion of the remaining 27 EU members. But it may not last.

The biggest surprise of Brexit so far has been the remarkable cohesion of the remaining 27 members of the European Union. In fact, no one has been more surprised by this unity, which manifested itself immediately after the referendum and has solidified since, than the EU itself.

The 27 nations have resisted the British government’s diplomatic efforts to pry them apart. Even a whistle-stop tour of European capitals by Prince William’s wife, the Duchess of Cambridge, couldn’t stop EU leaders from agreeing to their hardline Brexit negotiating guidelines in just four minutes.

The bad news for the U.K. is that this unity is likely to hold when formal negotiations begin. That’s partly because the interests of the EU27 really are aligned. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Poland’s EU Isolation Spells Trouble Ahead

Posted by hkarner - 22. Mai 2017

Date: 22-05-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon

Warsaw has pushed for a looser union, but other members are openly debating deeper integration

These are delicate times for Poland’s relationship with the European Union.

The political upheavals in Europe over the past year took many by surprise, but few have been so wrong-footed as the Polish government. Until last June, Warsaw’s diplomatic priority was to forge an alliance with the U.K. to push for a looser European Union.

When this strategy was blown apart by Brexit, Warsaw continued to call for a looser EU, arguing that this was the best way to prevent further populist revolts. Now Poland looks strategically isolated for a second time: following Emmanuel Macron’s election as president of France, it is deeper integration that now tops the EU agenda. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Macron Marches Into the Breach of EU Overhaul

Posted by hkarner - 16. Mai 2017

Date: 15-05-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon

Arguably his boldest idea would establish a eurozone budget overseen by a eurozone finance minister

The symbolism could hardly be clearer: Emmanuel Macron will spend his first full day as president of France in Berlin visiting German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The man who campaigned as an ardent pro-European, who greeted the crowds at his victory rally to the strains of the European Union anthem, and who pledged at his inauguration on Sunday to “reform and relaunch the EU” is signaling that this work starts immediately.

Yet Mr. Macron may find the challenge of overhauling the EU even more daunting than reforming France. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How Emmanuel Macron’s Vision of the EU Could Further Marginalize Britain

Posted by hkarner - 12. Mai 2017

Date: 11-05-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon

French president-elect’s impact on U.K. lies less in Brexit negotiating stance than in prospect of more cohesive bloc

The heart of the Brexit debate was over how Britain could best maintain its status as a core rather than peripheral country in Europe. Brexiters claimed the U.K. could never be central to the European Union while remaining outside both the eurozone and the border-free Schengen travel zone. Remainers argued the U.K. played an outsize role in shaping the EU—not least in creating the single market, supporting the EU’s eastward expansion and helping shape its trade policies—and that it was quitting the EU that risked turning Britain into a peripheral country.

This debate has acquired a new relevance following Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the French presidential election on Sunday, but not for the short-term reasons one might think.

Much time has been devoted in recent days to examining the entrails of Mr. Macron’s campaign pronouncements to divine what his election augurs for the prospects of a Brexit deal. But this is the wrong question. Sure, the election of his rival, Marine Le Pen, would have been a disaster for the U.K., plunging the continent into chaos, sapping the EU’s political capacity, and increasing the risk of a disorderly Brexit. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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In Britain, Hopes for a ‘Half-In’ Brexit Deal Linger

Posted by hkarner - 7. April 2017

 Is that worth a Brexit? (hfk)

Date: 06-04-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By SIMON NIXON

Theresa May shows signs of willing to compromise for a ‘deep’ partnership

Nine months after the referendum and a week after the triggering of Article 50, it is starting to become clear what Theresa May meant when she said “Brexit means Brexit.”

In her Lancaster House speech in January, the Prime Minister ruled out “partial membership of the European Union, associate membership of the European Union, or anything that leaves us half-in, half-out. We do not seek to adopt a model already enjoyed by other countries.”

Yet senior pro-EU conservatives are increasingly optimistic that what may yet emerge from the negotiations is what one describes as “associate membership in all but name.”

Indeed, Mrs. May’s goal of a “deep and special partnership” covering everything from trade to security sounds a lot like an Association Agreement of the sort that the EU already has in place with many neighboring countries.

Ukraine, for example, negotiated an Association Agreement with the EU that covers security and foreign policy as well as a deep and comprehensive trade agreement. This deal allows Ukraine tariff-free access to much of the EU single market for goods in return for compliance with EU rules, overseen by a bilateral commission, and without joining the customs union, allowing it to strike its own trade deals. Ukraine and the U.K. may not have much in common but the Ukraine deal provides a template of sorts, which has the advantage of being provided for under the EU treaties. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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U.K.’s Challenge: Reconciling Its Brexit Aims

Posted by hkarner - 4. April 2017

Date: 03-04-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By SIMON NIXON

Prime Minister Theresa May needs a deal that achieves three objectives. But the objectives may be irreconcilable

After nine months of phony war, the Brexit battle lines have been drawn.

Last week’s opening salvos were cloaked in generous diplomatic language. British Prime Minister Theresa May used her letter invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to laud Europe’s liberal democratic values and declared her wish for a “deep and special partnership” with the European Union.

EU Council President Donald Tusk reciprocated by declaring the Brexit negotiations an exercise in “damage control” with the goal of keeping the U.K. as close a partner as possible.

The desire for an amicable divorce on both sides is sincere, not least because the consequences of a collapse of the legal frameworks underpinning current cooperation in areas such as trade, finance, science and security would be so severe. Yet neither side is confident that the obstacles to a deal can be overcome.

The greatest obstacles lie within the U.K. itself. Mrs. May faces what may prove an impossible trilemma. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Britain’s Hand Has Weakened Since Brexit Vote

Posted by hkarner - 31. März 2017

Date: 30-03-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By SIMON NIXON

In divorce talks with the EU, it is Prime Minister Theresa May, not the bloc, that has a unity problem

Prime Minister Theresa May responds to questions in the House of Commons on Wednesday after announcing the start of the two-year countdown to the U.K. leaving the EU.

What was striking on the day Theresa May invoked Article 50 was how much the world had changed in nine months. During the referendum campaign, one of the strongest arguments advanced by the Leave campaign was that the European Union was on the brink of collapse and that the U.K. needed to escape the burning building.

Brexiters had been forecasting the imminent demise of the European project for a quarter of a century, and with the EU in the grip of a debt crisis and a migration crisis, it seemed as if their predictions may have been finally about to come true. The assumption was that the British Prime Minister would have the whip hand in Brexit negotiations over a weak and divided EU. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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