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Posts Tagged ‘Manyika’

Notes from the frontier: Modeling the impact of AI on the world economy

Posted by hkarner - 6. September 2018

Artificial intelligence has large potential to contribute to global economic activity. But widening gaps among countries, companies, and workers will need to be managed to maximize the benefits.

The role of artificial intelligence (AI) tools and techniques in business and the global economy is a hot topic. This is not surprising given that AI might usher in radical—arguably unprecedented—changes in the way people live and work. The AI revolution is not in its infancy, but most of its economic impact is yet to come.

New research from the McKinsey Global Institute attempts to simulate the impact of AI on the world economy. First, it builds on an understanding of the behavior of companies and the dynamics of various sectors to develop a bottom-up view of how to adopt and absorb AI technologies. Second, it takes into account the likely disruptions that countries, companies, and workers are likely to experience as they transition to AI. There will very probably be costs during this transition period, and they need to be factored into any estimate. The analysis examines how economic gains and losses are likely to be distributed among firms, employees, and countries and how this distribution could potentially hamper the capture of AI benefits. Third, the research examines the dynamics of AI for a wide range of countries—clustered into groups with similar characteristics—with the aim of giving a more global view.

The analysis should be seen as a guide to the potential economic impact of AI based on the best knowledge available at this stage. Among the major findings are the following:

  1. There is large potential for AI to contribute to global economic activity
  2. A key challenge is that adoption of AI could widen gaps among countries, companies, and workers Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
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A decade after the global financial crisis: What has (and hasn’t) changed?

Posted by hkarner - 31. August 2018

An essential analysis by the goreous MGI ! (hfk)
A decade after the global financial crisis: What has (and hasn’t) changed?
It all started with debt.

In the early 2000s, US real estate seemed irresistible, and a heady run-up in prices led consumers, banks, and investors alike to load up on debt. Exotic financial instruments designed to diffuse the risks instead magnified and obscured them as they attracted investors from around the globe. Cracks appeared in 2007 when US home prices began to decline, eventually causing the collapse of two large hedge funds loaded up with subprime mortgage securities. Yet as the summer of 2008 waned, few imagined that Lehman Brothers was about to go under—let alone that it would set off a global liquidity crisis. The damage ultimately set off the first global recession since World War II and planted the seeds of a sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone. Millions of households lost their jobs, their homes, and their savings.

How secure is the global financial system, a decade after the crisis?
Great strides have been made since 2008 to prevent a recurrence of the financial crisis and recession that followed. Yet there is more debt than ever in the global financial system. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Eine Lösung für das Produktivitäts-Puzzle

Posted by hkarner - 13. Mai 2018

James Manyika

James Manyika is Chairman of the McKinsey Global Institute and a senior partner in McKinsey & Company’s San Francisco Office.

Myron Scholes, a Nobel laureate in economics, is the Frank E. Buck Professor of Finance, Emeritus, at the Stanford Graduate School of Business and co-originator of the Black-Scholes options pricing model.

SAN FRANCISCO – Seit Jahren ist eines der großen Rätsel in der Wirtschaft für das sinkende Produktivitätswachstum in den Vereinigten Staaten und anderen fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften verantwortlich. Ökonomen haben eine Vielzahl von Erklärungen vorgeschlagen, von ungenauen Messungen über „säkulare Stagnation” bis hin zu der Frage, ob die jüngsten technologischen Innovationen produktiv sind.

Aber die Lösung des Rätsels scheint darin zu liegen, wirtschaftliche Zusammenhänge zu verstehen, anstatt einen einzigen Schuldigen zu identifizieren. Und in diesem Punkt kommen wir möglicherweise der Frage auf den Grund, warum sich das Produktivitätswachstum verlangsamt hat.

Betrachtet man das Jahrzehnt seit der Finanzkrise 2008 – eine Zeit, die für die starke Verschlechterung des Produktivitätswachstums in vielen Industrieländern bemerkenswert ist -, so lassen sich drei herausragende Merkmale feststellen: ein historisch niedriges Wachstum der Kapitalintensität, die Digitalisierung und eine schwache Nachfrageerholung. Zusammengenommen erklären diese Merkmale, warum das jährliche Produktivitätswachstum zwischen 2010 und 2014 um durchschnittlich 80 % auf 0,5 % gesunken ist, gegenüber 2,4 % ein Jahrzehnt zuvor. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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What AI can and can’t do (yet) for your business

Posted by hkarner - 14. Januar 2018

Artificial intelligence is a moving target. Here’s how to take better aim.
Artificial intelligence (AI) seems to be everywhere. We experience it at home and on our phones. Before we know it—if entrepreneurs and business innovators are to be believed—AI will be in just about every product and service we buy and use. In addition, its application to business problem solving is growing in leaps and bounds. And at the same time, concerns about AI’s implications are rising: we worry about the impact of AI-enabled automation on the workplace, employment, and society.

A reality sometimes lost amid both the fears and the headline triumphs, such as Alexa, Siri, and AlphaGo, is that the AI technologies themselves—namely, machine learning and its subset, deep learning—have plenty of limitations that will still require considerable effort to overcome. This is an article about those limitations, aimed at helping executives better understand what may be holding back their AI efforts. Along the way, we will also highlight promising advances that are poised to address some of the limitations and create a new wave of opportunities.

The whole report: What-AI-can-and-cant-do-yet-for-your-business(1)

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Technology, jobs, and the future of work

Posted by hkarner - 27. Mai 2017

By James Manyika, McKinsey Global Institute, May 2017

Automation, digital platforms, and other innovations are changing the fundamental nature of work. Understanding these shifts can help policy makers, business leaders, and workers move forward.

The world of work is in a state of flux, which is causing considerable anxiety—and with good reason. There is growing polarization of labor-market opportunities between high- and low-skill jobs, unemployment and underemployment especially among young people, stagnating incomes for a large proportion of households, and income inequality. Migration and its effects on jobs has become a sensitive political issue in many advanced economies. And from Mumbai to Manchester, public debate rages about the future of work and whether there will be enough jobs to gainfully employ everyone.

The development of automation enabled by technologies including robotics and artificial intelligence brings the promise of higher productivity (and with productivity, economic growth), increased efficiencies, safety, and convenience. But these technologies also raise difficult questions about the broader impact of automation on jobs, skills, wages, and the nature of work itself. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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We Can’t Undo Globalization, But Can Improve It

Posted by hkarner - 12. Januar 2017

Enligthening! No „post truth“ story, but real! (hfk)

Date: 11-01-2017
Source: Harvard Business Review

Global flows of trade and investment add economic value, and dismantling systems that rely on globalization would reduce prosperity. “While the impulse to erect trade barriers is understandable given the pain experienced by workers in a range of industries and communities in recent years, it is not the way to create lasting growth and shared prosperity,” notes a Harvard Business Review article. “During the past decade, the United States was the world’s largest recipient of foreign direct investment, with nearly $2 trillion invested in a range of sectors, companies, and workers across the country.” Still, managers and politicians cannot ignore the costs of trade and globalization, and must support communities with transition. The authors recommend solutions: Job hunters should be willing to relocate. Companies should expand export and trade capability. Globalization is more digital in nature, and firms should explore opportunities. Retraining should be customized for fields and communities, and benefits should be portable across state lines. Expanding globalization’s opportunities, rather than limiting cross-border flows, would be the better approach to boosting prosperity. – YaleGlobal
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Putting Profits in Perspective

Posted by hkarner - 28. Mai 2016

Photo of Laura Tyson

Laura Tyson

Laura Tyson, a former chair of the US President’s Council of Economic Advisers, is a professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, a senior adviser at the Rock Creek Group, and a member of the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on Gender Parity.

Photo of James Manyika

James Manyika

James Manyika is the San Francisco-based director of the McKinsey Global Institute and a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

MAY 27, 2016, Project Syndicate

BERKELEY – High profits are usually viewed as a sign of a company’s economic prowess, the result of innovation and efficiency forged by healthy competition. But, as a recent report by the US Council of Economic Advisers shows, high profits can have another cause: market concentration.

The report lists several indicators of decreasing competition in the US economy, including a long-term decline in new business formation and the accrual of enormous profits to a small number of firms. Acting on its recommendations, President Barack Obama recently issued an executive order calling on all US government agencies to use their authority to promote competition.

It is an important moment to assess the state of competition in various sectors. Many US industries, including some of the most innovative, are dominated by a handful of large companies, some of which enjoy very large market shares and generate returns that greatly exceed historical averages. And some companies are stockpiling cash or acquiring competitors rather than using their returns to build productive capacity. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Globalization Is More About Data and Less About Stuff

Posted by hkarner - 20. März 2016

Date: 18-03-2016
Source: Harvard Business Review

Recent trends in globalization emphasize cross-border data and digital flows, argues a team from McKinsey Global Institute, an argument that coincides with YaleGlobal’s definition of globalization as the interconnectedness of the world in every area including trade and communications. “Today growth in global trade has flattened, and it looks unlikely to regain its previous peak relative to world GDP anytime soon,” write Susan Lund, James Manyika and Jacques Bughin. Meanwhile, “Cross-border data flows have grown by a factor of 45 over the past decade, and they’re projected to post another ninefold increase by 2020.” They offer recommendations for companies in achieving global scale: Organizations do not need same set of administrators or even a physical presence in each country; skilled specialists can work remotely. Companies can focus on value chains rather than supply chains, relying on multiple vendors to avoid bottlenecks. Some products do better with customization and others succeed with a streamlined approach for all. Global releases are the norm, and competition is intense and unpredictable. The article concludes, “The internet is ramping up pricing pressures, shortening product cycles, and creating a more global labor market in which companies have to compete for scarce technical and managerial talent.” – YaleGlobal

Companies compete at global scale on a digital front with products, services, labor, speed and prices

Globalization is not what it was even a decade ago. What links the world together has changed fundamentally — and for many companies, succeeding in this new operating environment will require rethinking many past decisions and assumptions. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Restarting the global economy: Three mismatches that need concerted public action

Posted by hkarner - 5. November 2015

Michael Spence, Danny Leipziger, James Manyika, Ravi Kanbur 04 November 2015, voxeu

T. H. Lee Professor of World Affairs, International Professor of Applied Economics and Management, Professor of Economics at Cornell University and CEPR Research Fellow

Professor of International Business at the School of Business, George Washington University; Managing Director, The Growth Dialogue

Director, McKinsey Global Institute

Michael Spence

Nobel laureate; senior fellow, Hoover Institution; Philip H. Knight Professor Emeritus of Management in the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University; Professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University

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The Age of Disruption

Posted by hkarner - 15. Mai 2015

Date: 14-05-2015
Source: Businessworld: Nayan Chanda

No ordinary disruptionAwareness of new patterns, discoveries and inventions can revolutionize entire industries or economies. Others quickly adapt or struggle. Richard Dobbs, James Manyika and Jonathan Woetzel are authors of “No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends,” and “By combining data from disparate fields, they make a compelling argument about the disruptive forces that are re-shaping the world before our eyes,” Nayan Chanda, editor of YaleGlobal, writes for his column in Businessworld. Economic activity is shifting from Europe to Asia. So much trade depends on the accelerating pace of technology including online shopping. Fertility is in decline throughout much of the world, and some nations are aging; the world will need more programmers and caregivers. “The final disruptive force is the breathtaking interconnectivity between trade, the movement of capital, people and information,” Chanda writes. “Lessons learnt in one country are quickly applied to gain market advantage in another.” Countries must prepare with adequate infrastructure, education, communications and other basic procedures yet to be recognized. – YaleGlobal

The book “No Ordinary Disruption” suggests economies must prepare to adapt to shift to Asia, declining fertility, other disruptive trends. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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