Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Posts Tagged ‘M5S’

Italian Election Dims Hopes of Eurozone Reform

Posted by hkarner - 13. März 2018

Date: 12-03-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon

Rise of antiestablishment parties makes prospect of overhaul at June summit increasingly unlikely

Luigi Di Maio, the 5 Star Movement party’s leader and candidate for the post of Italian prime minister, celebrated with the party’s showing in Italian elections last week.

The key question that European policy makers have been debating for the past year is this: Should reforms to strengthen the eurozone take place before or after an Italian crisis?

Of course, no one publicly puts it quite so starkly.

Instead, they hide behind technical language: They argue over whether the eurozone should prioritize “risk reduction” or “risk sharing.” But everyone knows what they mean.

Should the eurozone arm itself with tools to tackle a Greek-style debt crisis in Italy—and perhaps even forestall it? Or should it wait until the markets conclude that the European Union’s third-largest economy’s debts are unsustainable and then clean up the mess?

Last week, Italians answered the question for themselves. By voting to fill more than half their parliament with representatives of antiestablishment, euroskeptic parties, they almost certainly dashed any realistic prospect of eurozone leaders agreeing at a June summit to a package of far-reaching changes to the way that the eurozone is managed. That would include proposals to create a common budget to be overseen by a eurozone finance minister and the creation of a common deposit guarantee scheme to underpin the entire eurozone banking system. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Erst mal kein Italexit

Posted by hkarner - 21. Februar 2018

Date: 20-02-2018
Source: Die Zeit Von Michael Braun

Am 4. März wird in Italien gewählt. In Umfragen sind die Euroskeptiker wie Beppe Grillo stark, doch EU und Investoren geben sich gelassen. Dafür gibt es gute Gründe.

Kurz vor den italienischen Parlamentswahlen am 4. März beschwören viele ein politisches Patt in Rom oder gar einen Vormarsch der EU- und Euro-feindlichen Kräfte, und damit einen möglichen Ausstieg der drittgrößten Volkswirtschaft der Eurozone aus der Gemeinschaftswährung. Doch je näher der Wahltag rückt, desto entspannter geben sich die Finanzmärkte. Am Freitag lag der Spread, der Zinsabstand zwischen Italien und Deutschland bei Staatsanleihen mit zehnjähriger Laufzeit, bei knapp 1,3 Prozent – der niedrigste in den letzten Monaten gemessene Wert. Zum Vergleich: Zum Jahresende 2017 betrug er noch etwa 1,9 Prozent.

An den Meinungsumfragen kann das nicht liegen. Demnach würden 27 bis 28 Prozent der Befragten die von dem Komiker Beppe Grillo gegründete Protestbewegung der Fünf Sterne wählen, den Movimento5Stelle (M5S). Damit hat sie beste Chancen, stärkste Partei zu werden. Im letzten Wahlkampf hatte der M5S noch ein Referendum über Italiens Ausstieg aus dem Euro gefordert. Die mit Marine Le Pens Front National verbündete und klar gegen den Euro positionierte Lega Nord unter Matteo Salvini steuert auf nie erreichte 12 bis 14 Prozent zu. Und die stramm rechte, ebenfalls EU-feindliche Partei Fratelli d’Italia (FdI, „Brüder Italiens“) könnte bei den Wahlen fünf Prozent der Stimmen holen. Das macht insgesamt fast die Hälfte für Kräfte, die traditionell als Euroskeptiker, wenn nicht als Eurogegner gelten. Dagegen kommt die Europa-freundlichste Kraft unter den größeren Parteien, die regierende gemäßigt linke Partito Democratico (PD) unter Matteo Renzi, nur noch auf 22 bis 24 Prozent. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Learning from Europe’s populists

Posted by hkarner - 2. Februar 2018

Date: 01-02-2018
Source: The Economist

There is lots to dislike in Europe’s populists, but also something to study

THE European Union must feel as if it has seen off the populist horde. Economic growth is at its strongest in a decade. Emmanuel Macron has defeated the National Front and is transforming France. Although just 41% of citizens trust the EU, that is more than trust their national governments—and is fully ten points up on the lows after the financial crisis.

Yet populism is not vanquished. Insurgents are in office in Poland, Hungary and Austria and won last week’s vote in the Czech Republic. In Italy the Five Star Movement could sniff power in next month’s elections. In the years to come the influence of populist parties is likely to grow.

Rather than declare victory and return to politics as usual, the establishment needs to learn from populists. That means adopting the best of what they offer and discarding the rest.

The far-from-medium is the message

There is plenty to discard. Hardline populists pursue an antagonistic politics, imagining society to be simplistically split between people and elites that have sold them out. They claim a direct connection between politician and citizen that leaves little room for an independent judiciary or free press, for assertive minorities or for facts that contradict voters’ gut feelings. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Reprieve or Reform in Europe?

Posted by hkarner - 2. Mai 2017


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Italy is Europe’s leaden-toed boot

Posted by hkarner - 25. März 2017

Date: 23-03-2017
Source: The Economist: Charlemagne

The host of the EU’s 60th anniversary party is the country most likely to bring it down

THE European Union may be a Franco-German construction, but when the project needs a dose of grandiosity it invariably turns to Italy. This weekend the leaders of 27 EU countries (all bar Britain) will convene in Rome’s glorious Palazzo dei Conservatori, beneath 17th-century frescoes and flanked by sculptures of sundry popes, to proclaim their unity—60 years after their forefathers signed the Treaty of Rome, the EU’s founding document, in the same room. In today’s fractious union the symbolism counts for something, even if the declaration the leaders will issue is crushingly bland. Yet there will be a note of irony to the proceedings, for if you ask officials in Brussels or Berlin which country keeps them up at night, the answer is always the same: Italy.

Very little changes here, sighs a local who emigrated as a child and recently returned to Rome. Sadly, that includes the size of the economy. The European Commission forecasts Italian growth at 0.9% this year, the slowest in the euro zone. Since 2008 Italy has been in recession as often as not. Real income per head is lower than when Italy joined the euro in 1999, and could soon be overtaken by zippy Spain. Youth unemployment stands at 38%, and the employment rate is among the lowest in the OECD. No wonder barely half the population of this traditionally pro-European country think the euro was a good idea. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Europe’s Reverse Domino Effect

Posted by hkarner - 20. März 2017

At last a sober realistic view – instead of all the  panicking! (hfk)

Date: 19-03-2017
Source: www.foreignaffairs.com

No One Is Following Britain Out of the EU
By Pierpaolo Barbieri

Following France’s 1954 humiliation at the hands of the Viet Minh at Dien Bien Phu, U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower divined the phrase “domino effect” to suggest that the victory of communist guerrillas would lead to a cascade of parallel events elsewhere: “You have a row of dominos set up,” Eisenhower said. “You knock over the first one. … What will happen to the last one is the certainty that it will go over very quickly.” Ike’s idea caught on; the “domino” concept was applied to everything from the Cuban Revolution to the Prague Spring.

Most recently, the prospect of a domino effect was a staple of discussions of the British referendum on EU membership. In this case, a first-mover (the United Kingdom) would trigger the implosion of the EU by daring to exit first. It would be swiftly followed by others eager to free themselves from the shackles of transnational regulators and their world-leading single market. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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We Are Not the World

Posted by hkarner - 8. Januar 2017

Very useful contribution! Very right! (hfk)

Date: 07-01-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

From Brexit to Trump to the rise of nationalist parties across Europe, the old division between left and right is giving way to a battle between self-styled patriots and confounded globalists

Late on a Sunday evening a little more than a year ago, Marine Le Pen took the stage in a depressed working-class town in northern France. She had just lost an election for the region’s top office, but the leader of France’s anti-immigrant, anti-euro National Front did not deliver a concession speech. Instead, Ms. Le Pen proclaimed a new ideological struggle.

“Now, the dividing line is not between left and right but globalists and patriots,” she declared, with a gigantic French flag draped behind her. Globalists, she charged, want France to be subsumed in a vast, world-encircling “magma.” She and other patriots, by contrast, were determined to retain the nation-state as the “protective space” for French citizens. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Italy’s Day of Reckoning Is Coming

Posted by hkarner - 15. Dezember 2016

John Mauldin | Dec 14, 2016

Italy has a new government, and Matteo Renzi is not in charge of it. The former prime minister kept his word and resigned following his constitutional reform plan’s crushing defeat at the polls. Is all now well in that beautiful land?

Not exactly, though we did see a glimmer of hope this week. Unicredit, Italy’s largest bank, announced job cuts and asset sales that may buy it some time. This does not, however, mean the crisis is over. At best, it means the beginning of the crisis is over. We have a long way to go.

Our first OTB selection today begins, “Chronic inability to separate the probable from the desirable has been the tragedy of 2016.” Those fateful words come from Financial Times columnist Wolfgang Münchau, who is normally very calm but now sees wishful thinking about Italy as a major threat. As much as some might wish Italy to remain in the eurozone, Münchau thinks it’s increasingly improbable. Timing is the main question.

A brief sample of his analysis:

One day Italy will be led by a party in favour of withdrawal from the euro. When that happens, euro exit would turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. There would a run on Italy’s banks and its government’s bonds. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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The Rise of Anti-Establishment Italy

Posted by hkarner - 10. Dezember 2016

By on December 8, 2016  RGE EconoMonitorSteinbock

After the UK Brexit and the Trump triumph in the US, the rise of anti-establishment Italy is hardly a surprise. It is the effect of half a decade of failed austerity doctrines in Europe and decades of failed political consolidation in Italy – ever since the notorious Tangentopoli scandals.

While Italy’s constitutional referendum heralds a political earthquake that will eventually affect both France and Germany, the immediate result is more uncertainty in economy, political polarization and market volatility.

End of an era in Italy – and Europe

Only hours after Italians had casted their ballot in the referendum on constitutional reforms, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi announced his resignation after heavy defeat.

Renzi’s ‘Yes’ camp included most of his Democratic Party (DP) and centrist allies, and the tacit support of moderate voters, including some from Silvio Berlusconi’s Forward Italy (FI). In turn, the opposition lineup featured Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement (M5S), the regional Northern League (NL) led by Matteo Salvini in alliance with the far-right Brothers of italy’s (Fdl) and Berlusconi’s Forward Italy (FI), a significant minority of PD allies, a number of small leftist groups,

According to projections, almost 60% of voters rejected constitutional changes. “My government ends here,” said Renzi from Palazzo Chigi. Moments later, he acknowledged that his pledge to resign if defeated at the polls had been a mistake. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Italy on the Brink

Posted by hkarner - 9. Dezember 2016


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