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Posts Tagged ‘Lagarde’

We Need Forceful Policies to Avoid the Low-Growth Trap

Posted by hkarner - 2. September 2016

Posted on by iMFdirect

Lagarde.2015MDPORTRAIT4_114x128By Christine Lagarde

Low growth, high inequality, and slow progress on structural reforms are among the key issues that G20 leaders will discuss at their meeting in Hangzhou, China, this weekend. This meeting comes at an important moment for the global economy. The political pendulum threatens to swing against economic openness, and without forceful policy actions, the world could suffer from disappointing growth for a long time.

 2016 will be the fifth consecutive year with global GDP growth below its long-term average of 3.7 percent (1990-2007), and 2017 may well be the sixth (Chart 1). Not since the early 1990s—when ripple effects from economic transition caused growth to slow—has the world economy been so weak for such a long time. What has happened?

Chart 1 with background

 In advanced economies, real growth is running almost a full percentage point below the average of 1990-2007.

  • Many are still plagued by crisis legacies, such as private and public sector debt overhangs, and impaired balance sheets of financial institutions. The result has been stubbornly weak demand.
  • The longer demand weakness lasts, the more it threatens to harm long-term growth as firms reduce production capacity and unemployed workers are leaving the labor force and critical skills are eroding. Weak demand also depresses trade, which adds to disappointing productivity growth.
  • On the supply side, slowing productivity and adverse demographic trends are weighing on potential growth—a trend that started before the global financial crisis. And with little expectation of stronger growth tomorrow, firms have even less incentive to invest, which hurts both productivity and short-term growth prospects.

Emerging economies have also been slowing—but from an exceptionally fast pace of growth in the past decade. Their slowdown is therefore more a return to the historical norm. Developments within emerging economies are quite diverse. In 2015, for example, GDP in two of the four largest economies—China and India—grew between 7-7½ percent, while GDP contracted by close to 4 percent in the other two—Russia and Brazil. But there are important common factors: Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The U.S. Economy: Above 2, Below 5, and 4 P’s

Posted by hkarner - 24. Juni 2016

Posted on by iMFdirect


By Christine Lagarde

The U.S. economy is in good shape, despite some setbacks in very recent months. The latest IMF review of the U.S. economy can be summed up in three numbers: above 2, below 5, and 4. What does that mean?

  • Growth is above 2 percent: we expect the economy to grow above 2 percent this year and next, more specifically 2.2 percent in 2016 and 2.5 percent in 2017.
  • Unemployment is well below 5 percent: in the past year an average of 200,000 new jobs were created every month, and household incomes are rising at a healthy clip.
  • Four “forces” pose a challenge to future growth: beyond the important recent achievements, however, we need to look forward to what will be needed to ensure strong, sustained and balanced growth in the years ahead. Here, I would highlight in particular the four P’s.

The Four P’s Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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IWF warnt vor Crash in Griechenland

Posted by hkarner - 7. Mai 2016

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten  | 

In einem Brief an die 19 Euro-Finanzminister drängt IWF-Chefin Lagarde zur sofortigen Aufnahme von Verhandlungen über einen griechischen Schuldenerlass. Ihrer Ansicht nach hege die EU zu hohe Erwartungen an eine Erholung der Wirtschaft. Die Zeit drängt, weil bald die heiße Phase des Brexit-Wahlkampfes beginnt.

LagardeDem IWF zufolge wird die Zeit für eine Einigung knapp.

Der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) fordert die Finanzminister der Eurozone auf, unverzüglich mit Verhandlungen zu einem Schuldenschnitt für Griechenland zu beginnen, wie Financial Times schreibt. Dies geht aus einem Brief von IWF-Chefin Lagarde an alle 19 Finanzminister der Eurozone hervor, welcher der Zeitung vorliegt.

In dem Brief droht Lagard mit einem Ausstieg des IWF aus dem Kreditprogramm für Griechenland, falls nicht unverzüglich über Schuldenerleichterungen für das Land gesprochen werde. Die seit einem Monat andauernden Verhandlungen mit Griechenland über Einsparungen in Gesamthöhe von rund 3 Milliarden Euro seien aus IWF-Sicht „fruchtlos“ geblieben, wie Financial Times schreibt.

„Wir glauben, dass spezifische Reformmaßnahmen, eine Restrukturierung der Schulden und Fragen der Finanzierung jetzt zeitgleich diskutiert werden müssen. Für uns ist essentiell, dass die Finanzierung und die Schuldenerleichterungen, die Griechenlands europäische Partner fordern, auf Zielen beruhen, die realistisch sind (…)“, schreibt Lagarde demzufolge. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Negative Interest Rates Benefit the Global Economy, Says IMF Chief Christine Lagarde

Posted by hkarner - 6. April 2016

Date: 06-04-2016

Source: The Wall Street Journal

IMF LagardeSide-effects need to be monitored, says International Monetary Fund Managing Director

FRANKFURT—Subzero interest rates in Europe and Japan are “net positives” for the global economy, International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde said Tuesday, though she warned that the side effects of unorthodox central-bank policies should be closely monitored.

Speaking ahead of the IMF’s Spring meetings in Washington, D.C., next week, Ms. Lagarde praised recent policy moves by the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve, and called on governments to play their part by introducing growth-friendly reforms.

“We are on alert, not alarm” on the outlook for the global economy, Ms. Lagarde told an audience at Frankfurt University. She pointed to a “loss of growth momentum” over the past six months, “exacerbated by China’s relative slowdown, lower commodity prices, and the prospect of financial tightening for many countries.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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„Dear Christine!“ — „Dear Mr. Prime Minister!“

Posted by hkarner - 4. April 2016

Monday, April 4, 2016, Observing Greece Kastner

Here is the sequence of events leading up to the storm:

Transcript of recorded internal meeting (phone call) on March 19.
Letter from Alexis Tsipras to Christine Lagarde of April 2.
Letter from Christine Lagarde to Alexis Tsipras of April 3.

The Greek government may have justifiably found some of the content of the leaked internal IMF conversation offensive but the real slap in the face occurred at the top level: When you address a Head of Government as „Mr. Prime Minister“ after he as addressed you as „Christine“, you have really put the man in his place.

The whole issue is actually a tempest in a teapot. After every important meeting, after every important negotiation, each side has internal conversations as to where they stand. Such conversations are obviously not for the record and the language used in such conversations is obviously not always fit to print. Only utopists like Yanis Varoufakis argue that the world would be a better place if all such internal conversations which are not necessarily fit to print were to be made public. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Lagarde: Von der Synchronschwimmerin zur IWF-Chefin

Posted by hkarner - 22. Februar 2016

Stefan Brändle aus Paris, 21. Februar 2016, 14:38, derstandard.at

Christine Lagarde wurde am Freitag für eine zweite Amtszeit wiedergewählt

Synchronschwimmen ist, so harmonisch es wirkt, ein beinharter Sport. Und nicht nur das: Während die gesamte Muskulatur wie ein Uhrwerk arbeitet, der Atem minutenlang angehalten wird, gehört beim kurzen Auftauchen aus dem Wasser auch noch ein strahlendes Lächeln zum Pflichtprogramm. Christine Lagarde war Synchronschwimmerin. Mit dem französischen Nationalteam holte sie mehrere Medaillen. Eine Krönung? Nein, nur der Anfang.

In Le Havre am regnerischen Ärmelkanal aufgewachsen, verlor Christine mit 16 ihren Vater. Umso eifriger absolvierte sie mehrere Eliteschulen, um dann bei Baker&McKenzie einen Topanwaltsjob zu ergattern. Als erste Frau übernahm sie in den USA die Leitung des international reputierten Kabinettes.

Im Rampenlicht Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Lagarde: Debt Relief For Greece!  

Posted by hkarner - 7. Februar 2016

Saturday, February 6, 2016, Observing GreeceKastner

Christine Lagarde of the IMF considers debt relief for Greece as important as the reform of the Greek pension system, reports the Ekathimerini. Well, in a way she is quite right!

Those arguing in favor of debt relief create the impression that the immediate consequence of such debt relief would be a relaxation of fiscal pressures. That is true only where debt relief leads to an immediate reduction in interest expense. Most of the EU financing for Greece is currently (and until 2022, I believe) free of interest. Even if one forgave all of that debt, there would be no impact on Greece’s fiscal balance in the next years.

Greece has spent about 5,7 BEUR annually on interest in the last couple of years. One would have to examine who that interest was paid to. If the recipients of that interest forgave their debt, Greece would immediately benefit.
Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The IMF Needs More Lagarde

Posted by hkarner - 20. Januar 2016

Photo of Ian Bremmer

Ian Bremmer

Ian Bremmer is President of Eurasia Group and the author of Every Nation for Itself: Winners and Losers in a G-Zero World.

JAN 19, 2016, Project Syndicate

DAVOS – Christine Lagarde has said she is open to serving another five-year term as Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund. She should get it. The IMF has never had better leadership, and its board of directors should give her the chance to finish the work she has begun.

When Lagarde took the helm in July 2011, she inherited an institution in crisis. The global financial meltdown in 2008 and its economic aftershocks had discredited Western-led multilateral lenders and the free-market “Washington Consensus.” Lagarde’s leadership has helped to restore the Fund’s reputation.

Much attention is paid to her personal qualities – and rightly so. She is frank, forceful, warm, and engaging. In country after country, officials with whom she has met, often under delicate circumstances, describe her as both a teller of difficult truths and a sensitive listener. These are important qualities for the leader of an institution that must negotiate, rather than dictate, terms of agreement. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Transitions of 2016

Posted by hkarner - 5. Januar 2016

Photo of Christine Lagarde

Christine Lagarde

Christine Lagarde is Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund. She previously served as France’s finance minister from 2007-2011, and in 2009 was named by the Financial Times as the best finance minister in the eurozone.

JAN 5, 2016, Project Syndicate

WASHINGTON, DC – November’s terrorist attack in Paris and the influx of refugees into Europe are but the latest symptom of sharp political and economic tensions in North Africa and the Middle East. And these events are by no means isolated. Conflicts are raging elsewhere, too, and there are close to 60 million displaced people worldwide.

Moreover, 2015 was expected to be one of the hottest years on record, with an extremely strong El Niño that has spawned weather-related calamities across the Pacific. And the arrival of interest-rate normalization in the United States, together with China’s slowdown, is contributing to uncertainty and higher economic volatility worldwide. Indeed, there has been a sharp deceleration in the growth of global trade, with the drop in commodity prices posing problems for resource-based economies. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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IWF-Chefin Lagarde gibt sehr pessimistische Prognose für 2016 ab

Posted by hkarner - 31. Dezember 2015

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten  | 

IWF-Chefin Christine Lagarde sieht ziemlich schwarz für die Weltwirtschaft im Neuen Jahr: Der Preisverfall bei den Rohstoffen, der starke Dollar, die Kriege im Nahen Osten und die daraus folgende Flüchtlingskrise werden uns ein enttäuschendes Jahr 2016 bescheren, glaubt Lagarde.

IWF-Chefin Christine Lagarde hat keine guten Nachrichten für die Weltwirtschaft.

IWF-Chefin Christine Lagarde rechnet mit einem enttäuschenden Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft im kommenden Jahr. Hintergrund seien politische Unsicherheit und eine stärkere wirtschaftliche Schwankungsanfälligkeit rund um den Globus, schrieb die Französin in einem Gastbeitrag im Handelsblatt. Ursache dafür seien unter anderem der Konjunkturabschwung in China und die Aussicht auf steigende Zinsen in den USA.

Die US-Zinswende könne insbesondere Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländer vor Probleme stellen, die Konjunkturprogramme im Kampf gegen die Finanzkrise in einem erheblichen Anteil mit Dollar-Krediten finanziert hätten, erklärte die Chefin des Internationalen Währungsfonds. Hier drohten bei einem weiteren Anstieg des Dollars Zahlungsausfälle von Unternehmen, die Banken und Staaten infizieren könnten. Auch die Flüchtlingskrise sowie die Spannungen in Nahost und in Nordafrika, die mit den Pariser Anschlägen bis nach Europa ausstrahlten, trügen zu den Unsicherheiten bei. Zudem stelle der Preisverfall bei Öl und anderen Rohstoffen die Förderländer vor Probleme. Und der Finanzsektor weise auch sieben Jahre nach der Lehman-Pleite nach wie vor Schwächen auf. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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