Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Konjunkturpakete’

Mit absoluter Instinktsicherheit das Falsche

Posted by hkarner - 17. November 2009

Bankenhilfspaket bis 2010 verlängert – keine erhöhte Einlagensicherung mehr – kein weiterer Stimulus für die Realwirtschaft: der Finanzminister wird wohl unseren Contingency Plan gelesen haben – dann hat er aus Trotz in allen drei Fällen das Gegenteil gemacht! Tu felix Austria! (hfk)

aus ORF.on

Bankenhilfspaket bis Ende 2010 verlängert

Österreich wird den staatlichen Schutzschirm über seine Banken definitiv auch 2010 aufgespannt lassen. Der Ministerrat brachte heute die Verlängerung des Bankenhilfspakets auf den Weg.

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Everything You Know About China Is Wrong

Posted by hkarner - 20. Oktober 2009

china Source: NEWSWEEK

The conventional wisdom is that China is steaming through the global financial crisis by building on the momentum generated by its 30-year boom. Indeed, ever since it sailed through the last big global crisis—the Asian contagion 10 years ago—Beijing has been feted for uniquely steady helmsmanship in financial storms. So perhaps it’s natural for forecasters to assume that the Chinese supertanker of state is not turning sharply now, particularly since it continues to grow rapidly even as other economies sink in the recession. Yet this crisis is different—bigger and more damaging than any seen in generations—and it is exposing limits and forcing change in just about every key piece of the China model: the supremacy of the one-party state, the smart economic management, the export-driven growth, the emerging consumer class, the burgeoning private sector, the headlong focus on growth at any environmental cost, and the drive to build world-class companies. What follows is a look at why these common assumptions about China are increasingly inaccurate or just plain wrong.

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„Das wird uns später noch alles auf den Kopf fallen“

Posted by hkarner - 16. Oktober 2009

16.10.2009 | 08:28 | Jochen Hahn (Wirtschaftsblatt)

als hätte Marc Faber den Föhrenbergkreis Blog abgeschrieben. Er hat es allerdings nicht notwendig! Übereinstimmung mit unseren Positionen: 95-100% (nur  das Eintreffen der Hyperinflation sehen wir früher!)

faber_marc_peroutka20091016081715Guru-Time. Die Schweizer Investoren-Legende Marc Faber bleibt ihrer pessimistischen Linie treu und erklärt im ausführlichen Interview mit dem INVESTOR, dass sich die geldpolitischen Fehler der Vergangenheit wiederholen und dadurch Hyperinflation droht.

Die Börsen haben den nahenden Aufschwung bereits mit kräftigen Kursgewinnen seit März gefeiert. Nun kommt die Rally etwas ins Stocken. Der Schweizer Börseguru Marc Faber erklärt, wie sich Anleger am besten verhalten sollen.

INVESTOR: Herr Faber, die Börsen starten seit März kräftig durch. Niemand hätte ein derartiges Comeback erwartet. Generell hat man das Gefühl, dass die Börsen die Wirtschaftskrise momentan gar nicht so sehr widerspiegeln. Ist alles tatsächlich halb so schlimm?

Marc Faber: Halb so schlimm ist es nicht. Mit Blick auf die Finanzwerte wird schnell deutlich, welches Ausmaß die Krise hat. Die Kurse haben sich zwar sehr rasch erholt, sind aber noch meilenweit von ihren Ständen vor dem Crash entfernt. Da braucht man sich ja nur den Kurs der US-Großbank Citigroup ansehen, der steht noch immer 90 Prozent unter seinem Hoch. Oder werft einen Blick auf euren ATX, der hat ja auch erst einen Bruchteil der Verluste aufgeholt. Es hat also tatsächlich eine immense Reichtumsvernichtung stattgefunden.

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Bernanke’s Next Tasks Will Be Undoing His First

Posted by hkarner - 26. August 2009

aus der heutigen NYT:

WASHINGTON — As he looks forward to a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke’s biggest challenge will be to undo much of what made him a hero during his first term.

In nominating Mr. Bernanke on Tuesday, Mr. Obama praised the Fed chairman for his “bold action and out-of-the-box thinking,” saying it had helped avoid a repeat of the Great Depression.

But most of those bold actions — lending hundreds of billions of dollars to banks and businesses, slashing overnight interest rates to nearly zero, having the Fed almost single-handedly finance the mortgage market — will have to be reversed or rolled back over the next few years. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Meeting Minutes des Arbeitskreises

Posted by hkarner - 13. August 2009

nach dem heutigen Meeting, 13. August 2009, korrigiert und upgedatet (VBAG) am 15/8

FinEco III_13-08-2009

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Keynesians Can’t Predict

Posted by hkarner - 29. Juli 2009

aus Mises Daily:  by | Posted on 7/28/2009 12:00:00 AM

If you take the trouble to interrogate a large number of economists about the economic future of the country you will find that an overwhelming majority argues in the following way: In about two years at the latest, rearmament will be completed and the amounts spent for this purpose will be negligible. At about the same time the pent-up demand for investments will be largely satisfied. The productive apparatus will be sufficiently enlarged, improved, and modernized to meet the needs of an increased population and all other reasonable requirements. A depression or at least a serious recession from the present high level of production and employment must follow.

These predictions will awaken unpleasant memories in those who do not believe in the possibility of objective, „scientific“ forecasts. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Japan’s Public Debt Sustainability: Will Legacy Costs Bankrupt Japan?

Posted by hkarner - 20. Juli 2009

  • The sustainability of Japan’s public finances has come under scrutiny in the wake of Japan’s 15.4 trillion yen fiscal stimulus package announced in April 2009 which will send public debt soaring to 200% of GDP by 2010. Japan’s heavy debt load led to the loss of its last ‚AAA‘ sovereign rating in May 2009. 
  • Locals have held most Japanese government bonds but a declining saving rate coupled with declining home bias could spell disaster for Japanese sovereign debt. Low interest rates keep debt costs down, but investors may seek higher yield elsewhere.

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The Moral Hazard Economy

Posted by hkarner - 18. Juli 2009

Appetites for risk should naturally abate after the catastrophic losses we’ve just seen. Will too-rich bailouts prevent that from happening?

Ein Artikel aus der Juli-August HBR. HBR07_09 The Moral Hazard Economy

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Bank of England’s Unorthodox Monetary Policy: No Change Again

Posted by hkarner - 10. Juli 2009

  • July 9: Bank of England (BoE) kept the bank rate on hold at 0.5% and will maintain £125 billion asset purchase program as planned despite many expecting a small increase in the amount to £150 billion, the maximum allowed.
  • BoE has the broadest form of unconventional monetary policy among the major central banks as it seeks to boost broad as well as narrow money, private credit, and reduce bond yields for both the public and private sector. However, the scale of its program was small. BoE began with £75 billion (5% of GDP) in March 2009, with access to another £75 billion later (BNP). Compared to the Bank of Japan and Fed though, the BoE’s program is the largest as a percentage of nominal GDP (21.4%). (BNP Paribas)

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Why I Expect Serious Stagflation

Posted by hkarner - 21. Juni 2009

When doing interviews for my new book on the Great Depression, a natural question comes up: will the present crisis turn out as bad as the 1930s?

My standard answer is typical for an economist: „yes and no.“ On the one hand, there were very specific reasons that unemployment broke 25 percent in 1933, and we don’t have those factors in place today. So I don’t think the official unemployment rate will get anywhere near that catastrophic level, though it could very well come in at the #2 spot in US economic history.

However, even though unemployment rates will not be as severe, I still predict that we are in store for a miserable decade of economic stagnation. Given all of the huge assaults of the federal government into the private sector in just the past six months, I frankly don’t understand how anyone except true believers in Karl Marx can be seeing „green shoots.“

Aus dem Von Mises daily Blog vom 15. Juni.  Wenn Sie weiterlesen wollen http://mises.org/story/3488

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