Posted by hkarner - 1. Juli 2015
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard rechnet mit längeren Bankferien und zahlreichen Firmenpleiten als Folge der Kapitalverkehrskontrollen in Griechenland
STANDARD: Derzeit versucht Griechenland, mit Kapitalverkehrskontrollen über die Runden zu kommen. Manche Experten meinen, dass das Land damit die aktuelle Krise durchtauchen könnte. Was sagen Sie?
Kirkegaard: Die Folgen der Kapitalverkehrskontrollen sind, dass die Leute zu wenig Cash haben. Es gibt auch viele Unternehmen, die Engpässe bekommen. Sie können ihre Lieferanten und Löhne nicht bezahlen. Viele Klein- und Mittelbetriebe werden zweifellos in den nächsten Wochen pleitegehen. Das ist eine Katastrophe für die griechische Wirtschaft. Aber es ist der einzige Weg, ein noch größeres Desaster zu verhindern. Wenn man keine Kapitalverkehrskontrollen durchführen würde, käme es zu einem Bankrun, sie wären insolvent, müssten geschlossen werden und könnten wegen Kapitalmangels auch nicht wieder aufsperren. Zur von Athen für den 6. Juli in Aussicht gestellten Öffnung der Banken wird es aus meiner Sicht nicht kommen, weil es keine neuen Notfallmittel der Europäischen Zentralbank geben wird, solange diese Regierung im Amt ist.
STANDARD: Die EZB könnte sogar einen Schritt weiter gehen und die bereits verliehenen 90 Milliarden Euro zurückverlangen, da das Programm für Griechenland nun ausgelaufen ist.
Kirkegaard: Es gibt gute Argumente dafür. Aber die EZB verhält sich sehr entgegenkommend und damit clever. Mit der jetzigen Vorgangsweise hat die Notenbank die Kapitalverkehrskontrollen erzwungen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Banken, Euro, Finanzkrise, Greece, Kirkegard, Peterson, Standard | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 14. Oktober 2012
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, Perterson Institute, 13 October 2012
Youth unemployment in the Eurozone looks like a social and economic disaster in the making – 30%, 40%, even 50% of young people sitting on their hands instead of building skills and experience. This column argues the headline numbers are misleading. While youth unemployment is a serious problem, a large share of EZ youth are not in the labour force, so the headline figures overstate the labour-market ‘scar tissue’ that will be left over from the crisis.
Hardly a day goes by without a reminder of youth unemployment rates in excess of 50% in Greece, Spain, Italy, and other parts of the European periphery. Sometimes the reminders are in the form of rants by economists or pundits about the moral deficiency of EZ demands for austerity and the risks of a lost generation of young people. The challenge for Europe’s youth is stark, and demands for government action are long overdue, especially in liberalising the insider biases that make it hard for outsiders to get jobs.
The situation is illustrated in Figure 1, which shows youth unemployment rates in the 15- to 24-year age group in the OECD countries in Q1 2011, compared with the latest available data1.
Figure 1. OECD Harmonised Youth Unemployment Rates, 15-24y
Source: OECD Labour Market Statistics.
The current OECD average is 16%, with the US average marginally higher at 16.8%, while the UK and the EZ average lies around 22%. Meanwhile, the intra-EZ range is remarkable, with Germany at just 8%, the lowest youth unemployment rate in the OECD, and Spain and Greece exceeding 50% in the latest data. Moreover, youth unemployment rates have increased in the last 18 months in the OECD, and in the four ‘Club Med’ EZ countries of Italy, Portugal, Spain and Greece. With these remarkable youth unemployment rates, it is striking how limited the social unrest has been. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Europe, Finanzkrise, Kirkegard, Peterson, Unemployment, USA, Youth | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 10. Oktober 2012
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, 8 October 2012, Peterson Institute
Political pressures are rising again in Europe. This column argues that reactions in parliaments, central banks and on the street are well within the bounds of predictable reactions to hard times. These developments change nothing of significance in the calculus concerning the eventual success of the Eurozone crisis response.
After a quiet few weeks, political pressures are rising again in Europe. Petrol bombs exploding in Athens and news reports of mounting support for the rightist Golden Dawn party bring into questions the durability of the summer stabilisation in the EZ.
Yet there is little to indicate that these developments change anything of significance in the EZ crisis response. Greek protesters invariably fight with police, but so what? The Greek government is likely to agree on a further austerity package, despite the violence and the first strike by (mostly) public sector workers since the new coalition government took office. As for Spain, the government in Madrid presented their fifth fiscal austerity and consolidation package last week, despite a few thousand protesters in Madrid. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Europe, Finanzkrise, Kirkegard, Peterson, Riots | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 1. März 2012
Author: Jacob Funk Kirkegaard · February 27th, 2012 · Peterson Institute
Just as it did when Congress recently extended the payroll tax cut, brinkmanship has produced a deal in Europe to extend a new lifeline to Greece and clear the way for the biggest sovereign bond restructuring in history. Both pieces of the agreement—the privately held Greek debt write-down of more than €100 billion and the terms of the new bailout extension—have produced widespread doubts in markets and among many analysts. Accordingly, a more detailed look at both is worthwhile, before considering how this package fits into the ongoing brinkmanship between the euro area and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the general focus on austerity in the euro area.
Part 1: The Greek PSI Deal
The agreement on the privately held debt write-down—known as Private Sector Involvement, or PSI—is no ordinary bond swap, but instead a remarkably complex transaction of unprecedented scale. The ultimate haircut accepted by the private creditors from the Institute for International Finance (IIF) went up to 53.5 percent of the principal bond value. Factoring in estimated average reduced coupon payments of new bonds of just 2.63 percent in the first eight years and 3.65 percent of the full 30-year period1, the ultimate net present value (NPV) loss for private creditors looks likely to approach 75 to 80 percent.
The new Greek bonds will be governed by English law, which means that the Greek government will not in the future be able to change the regulation of them. They will also be explicitly treated equally (pari passu) with new official sector loans from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) as part of a co-financing assistance package to Greece. These sweeteners notwithstanding, it remains the case that private creditors face dramatic financial losses as a result of this bond swap. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Banken, Greece, Kirkegard, Peterson, PSI, Restructuring, RGE Monitor | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 7. Februar 2012
Optimistisch, aber nicht unrealistisch. Mit der typischen Brillanz des Peterson Institutes. (hfk)
Author: Jacob Funk Kirkegaard · February 5th, 2012 · Peterson Institute
European Union leaders had the umpteenth euro crisis summit at the end of January. Indeed the EU Council meets so often that the descriptions of these gatherings should be changed from “yet another summit” to “back in session.” The slide to near-permanent policymaking has occurred as the EU Council begins to resemble a sitting parliament. But on January 30, 2011 the leaders made tangible progress on several fronts, though not necessarily on the stated goal of the summit—job creation and growth. Most importantly, at German insistence, they cleared the political and institutional way for an increase in European bailout funds. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: ECB, EFSF, ESM, Euro, Europe, Finanzkrise, Greece, Kirkegard, Peterson, RGE Monitor | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 29. Januar 2012
Man beachte: Das Peterson Institute wurde diese Woche als der beste Think Tank für internationale Wirtschaftsfragen bestimmt: http://www.gotothinktank.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/2011-Global-Go-To-Think-Tanks-Report.pdf. Und von dieser Qualität ist auch der Beitrag (hfk).
Author: Jacob Funk Kirkegaard · January 27th, 2012 · Peterson Institute
Events remain unsettled in the euro area in 2012 in spite of some recent progress toward stabilizing the fiscal and financial outlook. To begin with, negotiations between the Greek government and private creditors represented by the Institute for International Finance (IIF) have been suspended as they enter the final critical phase, with each side considering their final “red lines” before the EU Summit on January 30, 2012.
The Struggle over Debt Restructuring
As always in such negotiations, the impasse is over who gets stuck with a bill that keeps getting bigger as the Greek domestic economy deteriorates. Last October, it was evident that the first 20 percent debt write-down negotiated the previous July would not deliver debt sustainability for Greece. Accordingly, the haircut on the debt principal was raised to 50 percent. Today, it seems obvious that while the 50 percent reduction in debt principal remains sacrosanct, the reduction in the net present value (NPV) of privately owned Greek debt will have to exceed 50 percent if Greece is to achieve debt sustainability. Moreover, private investors must participate in the “voluntary bond swap” at essentially 100 percent to reach that goal, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: EFSF, Greece, IIF, IMF, Kirkegard, Peterson, RGE Monitor, S&P | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 18. November 2011
Source: YaleGlobal: Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
The slow-motion crisis of the euro seems to have reached a plateau with the formation of new governments in Greece and Italy. But Europe’s debt crisis is complex with far-reaching implications. In this two-part series, YaleGlobal examines the ramification of the crisis, the reform course Europe must take and the lessons that others can draw from it. In the first part of the series, Jacob Funk Kirkegaard of the Peterson Institute for International Economics identifies four overlapping crises: weak regulatory institutions, undercapitalized banks, uneven competitiveness and contagion. A global audience looks for Europe not only to end the debt crisis, but to restore confidence in so-called risk-free debt, and draft a script for avoiding repeat acts. Kirkegaard warns that that there is no easy fix – the world can expect the drawn-out containment efforts of the past 18 months to continue. If the reforms succeed, Europe will be a more tightly integrated union but one cannot rule out failure either. – YaleGlobal
As the world watches, Europe battles to contain burgeoning debt and restore confidence
WASHINGTON: The eurozone crisis has gradually taken center-place in an increasingly volatile global economy since May 2010. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Banken, Debt, Euro, Europe, Finanzkrise, Kirkegard, Yale | Leave a Comment »