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Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Keynes’

Keynes was wrong. Gen Z will have it worse.

Posted by hkarner - 31. Dezember 2019

Date: 27‑12‑2019

Source: Technology Review by Malcolm Harris

Instead of never‑ending progress, today’s kids face a world on the edge of collapse. What next?

The founder of macroeconomics predicted that capitalism would last for approximately 450 years. That’s the length of time between 1580, when Queen Elizabeth invested Spanish gold stolen by Francis Drake, and 2030, the year by which John Maynard Keynes assumed humanity would have solved the problem of our needs and moved on to higher concerns.

It’s true that today the system seems on the edge of transformation, but not in the way Keynes hoped. Gen Z’s fate was supposed to be to relax into a life of leisure and creativity. Instead it is bracing for stagnant wages and ecological crisis.

In a famous essay from the early 1930s called “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren,” Keynes imagined the world 100 years in the future. He spotted phenomena like job automation (which he called “technological unemployment”) coming, but those changes, he believed, augured progress: progress toward a better society, progress toward collective liberation from work. He was worried that the transition to this world without toil might be psychologically difficult, and so he suggested that three‑hour workdays could serve as a transitional program, allowing us to put off the profound question of what to do when there’s nothing left to do.

Well, we know the grandchildren in the title of Keynes’s essay: they’re the kids and younger adults of today. The prime‑age workforce of 2030 was born between 1976 and 2005. And though the precise predictions he made about the rate of economic growth and accumulation were strikingly accurate, what they mean for this generation is very different from what he imagined. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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That Time Keynes Had a Point

Posted by hkarner - 29. September 2019

By John Mauldin

September 20, 2019

False Assumptions
Necessary Debate
Keynesian Sense?

“Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back.”

―John Maynard Keynes

I begin with this Keynes quote because, while true, it doesn’t go far enough. The problem isn’t simply defunct economists or “scribblers of a few years back.” We are in the grip of economists who, far from being defunct, hold great power. Whether they hear voices in the air (or Twitter), I can’t say, but they are indeed madmen in authority.

Not all economists are in that category. Many provide valuable insight or are at worst harmless. They don’t pretend they can change human nature or prevent the inevitable. Unfortunately, some economists do believe those things. Worse, they are in places from which they can wreak havoc, and they are. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How Do You Solve a Problem Like Germany?

Posted by hkarner - 21. August 2019

Date: 20-08-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By The Editorial Board

Berlin prepares to cave to the Keynesians but could do so much better.

Olaf Scholz is the new favorite politician of global investors. The German Finance Minister said Sunday he might possibly, though very cautiously, cobble together a Keynesian stimulus package for his recession-menaced country. Markets soared Monday.

The global hunt for good news is understandable, though Mr. Scholz didn’t say what people seem to think he did. Rather than outright promising a €50 billion stimulus package, he said only that Berlin “can muster” that sum if necessary to “counter a crisis with full force.” Chancellor Angela Merkel —whose center-right Christian Democrats rule in an awkward coalition with Mr. Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats—has said she might allow some deficit spending in a downturn. But the final amount could be less than Mr. Scholz hints.

The bigger problem is that a Keynesian spending splurge is what everyone now thinks will make or break the eurozone’s largest economy. Berlin invites this stimulus pressure as the only large eurozone government responsible enough to live within its means. A balanced budget and government debt below 60% of GDP encourage the International Monetary Fund and investment banks to call for Berlin to “use” its fiscal headroom to avert a recession. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How Keynes would negotiate Brexit

Posted by hkarner - 16. August 2018

Date: 15-08-2018
Source: The Economist

The great economist would strive to understand the other side and focus only on the future

WOULD John Maynard Keynes be a Brexiteer or a Remoaner? The great 20th-century economist started out as a free-trader. But he argued against “economic entanglement among nations” in an essay titled “National Self-Sufficiency” in 1933. Goods should be “homespun” wherever possible, he wrote, and “above all, let finance be primarily national.”  By 1945 Keynes was an internationalist again.

If nothing else, Lord Keynes was a pragmatist (“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?,” he apocryphally said.)  What is certain is that he would be at the negotiating table.

How Keynes would handle Brussels today is clear from a speech to the House of Lords in December 1945 on Britain’s post-war financial dealings with America. In it, he sets out what it means to get the best deal possible, even in unfavourable circumstances. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Where is technology taking the economy?

Posted by hkarner - 5. Oktober 2017

This is a „must read“ for everybody who wants to understand the impact of technology on the economy and society. Very thoughtful! (hfk)

Date: 05-10-2017
Source: www.mckinsey.com By W. Brian Arthur

W. Brian Arthur is an external professor at the Santa Fe Institute and a visiting researcher at the System Sciences Lab at PARC (a Xerox company).

We are creating an intelligence that is external to humans and housed in the virtual economy. This is bringing us into a new economic era—a distributive one—where different rules apply.

A year ago in Oslo Airport I checked in to an SAS flight. One airline kiosk issued a boarding pass, another punched out a luggage tag, then a computer screen showed me how to attach it and another where I should set the luggage on a conveyor. I encountered no single human being. The incident wasn’t important but it left me feeling oddly that I was out of human care, that something in our world had shifted. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A new paradigm for the introductory course in economics

Posted by hkarner - 9. September 2017

Research Professor and Director of the Behavioral Sciences Program, Santa Fe Institute

Professor of Economics, UCL; CEPR Research Fellow

Samuel Bowles, Wendy Carlin 07 September 2017, vox.eu

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America’s Confidence Economy

Posted by hkarner - 21. März 2017

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Der Architekt: Otmar Issing über das Ende des Euros

Posted by hkarner - 13. Dezember 2016

EU | 08.12.2016, Makroskop

In einem Interview mit Centralbanking.com Mitte Oktober erzählt Otmar Issing seine Sicht der Dinge. Der ehemalige Chefvolkswirt der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) befürchtet ein Ende des Euros, da eine weiterführende politische Einigung nicht möglich sei.

issing-ccOtmar Issing gilt als einer der Vertreter des deutschen Monetarismus und war bei Bundesbank und der EZB viele Jahre in führenden Positionen (u. a. als Chefvolkswirt) tätig. Er ist im Ruhestand und beobachtet die Entwicklungen inzwischen von der Seitenlinie, da er nicht mehr für eine Zentralbank arbeitet.

Issing und der Monetarismus – der Prophet liegt daneben

In dem Interview geht es zunächst um den Monetarismus und Issing erzählt, dass er im Übergang von Bundesbank zu EZB dem Monetarismus eigentlich abgeschworen hatte. „I would be strongly against a monetary target“, so hätte er bei der EZB vor einem Geldmengenziel gewarnt. Aufgrund der unsicheren strukturellen Situation mit einer Zentralbank für elf Länder hätte man unmöglich vorhersagen können, wie hoch der Liquiditätsbedarf sei. Letztlich ging aber alles weiter seinen Lauf ohne jegliche Störungen, als der Euro eingeführt wurde. Issing kritisiert allerdings an der Politik der EZB, dass diese die quantitative Entwicklung von Geld und Kredit ignoriert hätte. Dies hätte zur Entwicklung von Finanzblasen beigetragen und damit als ein Grund von mehreren die Krise verursacht.

Diese Äußerungen erscheinen allerdings in einem etwas anderen Licht, wenn man Issings Texte aus früheren Jahren liest. Bei ZEIT online beispielsweise veröffentlichte er im März 2010, also zu einer Zeit, in der man von expansiver zu restriktiver Fiskalpolitik umschwenkte, unter dem Titel „Zu viel Geld ist gefährlich“ einen Beitrag mit der Unterüberschrift „Die keynesianische Politik produziert hohe Staatsschulden und neue Finanzblasen. Der Monetarismus wird eine Renaissance erleben“ (hier). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Worauf Keynesianer allzu gern vergessen

Posted by hkarner - 24. November 2016

24.11.2016 | 18:39 | Josef Urschitz (Die Presse)urschitz

Kolumne Aus der Krise auf Pump „herausinvestieren“ kann durchaus funktionieren. Nachhaltig aber nur, wenn man vorher seine strukturellen Ausgabenprobleme in den Griff bekommen hat, zeigt ein Vergleich europäischer Länder.

Die EU-Kommission hat neulich Deutschland – sehr zum Missfallen des dortigen Finanzministers – aufgefordert, doch endlich mehr auf Schulden zu investieren, damit die europäische Wirtschaft stärker in Schwung kommt. Und auch hierzulande mehren sich die Stimmen, die meinen, man solle angesichts der Niedrigzinsen endlich ins Volle greifen.

In der Vorwoche hat beispielsweise der WIIW-Ökonom Philipp Heimberger eine im Auftakt der Arbeiterkammer erstellte Studie präsentiert, deren Ergebnis sich kurz so zusammenfassen lässt: Die europäische Austeritätspolitik habe ab 2010 speziell in den Euroländern ausgeprägt negative Effekte auf Wachstum und Beschäftigung gehabt. Die Eurozone sei damit hinter die USA und Großbritannien, deren „pragmatischer Keynesianismus“ die Wirtschaft anschiebe, zurückgefallen.

Rein gefühlsmäßig scheint das nicht zu stimmen: In Europa geht es ausgerechnet dem mit Austeritätsvorwürfen konfrontierten Norden – etwa Deutschland – relativ gut, während der fröhlich auf Pump lebende Club Med von Krise zu Krise stolpert. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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John Maynard Keynes: Courage Is the Key to Investing

Posted by hkarner - 18. Oktober 2016

Date: 17-10-2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal

keynes-ccEnglish economist John Maynard Keynes

The next time the stock market crashes, we will all step forward and buy stocks boldly — at least in our imaginations.

But buying stocks when the market collapses is far harder to do than to imagine. New research looks at how the great economist — and equally great investor — John Maynard Keynes waded into the wake of the Great Crash of 1929, when U.S. stocks fell by more than 80% from peak to trough. His experience should teach all investors the importance of preparation, courage and patience.

Between the early 1920s and his death in 1946, Keynes wrote several books, revolutionized economic policy and helped devise the modern global monetary system. In his spare time, he managed the endowment of King’s College at the University of Cambridge. From 1922 through 1946, Keynes’ stock portfolio outperformed the U.K. stock market by an average of nearly six percentage points annually — over a period covering the worst market crash, the worst economic depression and the worst war in modern history. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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