Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Jobs’

Two Myths About Automation

Posted by hkarner - 13. Dezember 2017

Barry Eichengreen is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. His latest book is Hall of Mirrors:The Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the Uses – and Misuses – of History.

While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

BERKELEY – Robots, machine learning, and artificial intelligence promise to change fundamentally the nature of work. Everyone knows this. Or at least they think they do.

Specifically, they think they know two things. First, more jobs than ever are threatened. “Forrester Predicts that AI-enabled Automation will Eliminate 9% of US Jobs in 2018,” declares one headline. “McKinsey: One-third of US workers could be jobless by 2030 due to automation,” seconds another.

Reports like these leave the impression that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically. But there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the United States and across the advanced-country world.

Moreover, as the economist Timothy Taylor recently pointed out, the rate of change of the occupational structure, defined as the absolute value of jobs added in growing occupations and jobs lost in declining occupations, has been slowing, not accelerating, since the 1980s. This is not to deny that the occupational structure is changing. But it calls into question the widely held view that the pace of change is quickening.

The second thing everyone thinks they know is that previously safe jobs are now at risk. Once upon a time, it was possible to argue that robots would displace workers engaged in routine tasks, but not the highly skilled and educated – not the doctors, lawyers and, dare one say, professors. In particular, machines, it was said, are not capable of tasks in which empathy, compassion, intuition, interpersonal interaction, and communication are central.

Now, however, these distinctions are breaking down. Amazon’s Alexa can communicate. Crowd-sourcing, together with one’s digital history, can intuit buying habits. Artificial intelligence can be used to read x-rays and diagnose medical conditions. As a result, all jobs, even those of doctors, lawyers, and professors, are being transformed.

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Automatic Job Storm Coming

Posted by hkarner - 10. Dezember 2017

The monthly jobs report isn’t like that. Yes, any single month doesn’t tell us much. Yes, the Labor Department’s methodology has some flaws, both major and minor. But imperfect as it is, the jobs report is our best look at the economy’s pulse. Jobs matter in a visceral way to almost all of us, as you know well if you’ve ever lost one. Almost any survey that asked questions around employment would reveal the angst that many Americans feel about the possibility of losing their jobs.

Right now, automation tops the list of things that might threaten our jobs. Artificial intelligence and robotics technology are rapidly learning to do what human workers do, but better, faster, and cheaper.

I’ve use the following chart before, but it’s a compelling illustration of how technology is reducing employment. It shows the rising rig count in the oil patch since mid-2016 – and yet the number of workers on those rigs is actually still falling. This is the impact of a new robot called an iron roughneck: Tasks that used to require 20 people now need only five. And the iron roughneck is not even that widely deployed in the oil and gas industry – the trend will hit hard in the coming decade. Roughneck jobs are relatively high-paying; it takes a great deal of training and skill to be able to do them. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Forget Robots: Bad Public Policies Could Be Bigger Job Killers

Posted by hkarner - 30. November 2017

Date: 29-11-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Study stresses need for businesses, governments to prudently manage disruption created by automation

Automation could be a huge boon to the world’s workers—but only if governments and businesses prudently manage the disruption it creates.

As many as 375 million workers around the world will need to find new occupations or lose their livelihood to automation by 2030, the McKinsey Global Institute estimates in a new report. It isn’t impossible for up to 14% of the global workforce to retrain and refocus, but it requires planning and the investment of will and resources, says Susan Lund, a principal at the Institute.

“‘Will there be enough jobs?’ is not the right question,” she says. “The question is, what are we going to do to manage the transition for people who do lose their jobs?” The choices that policy makers and business leaders make about how to support displaced workers, invest in education and training, and fund job-creating projects in areas such as infrastructure and energy will all affect the labor market, she says. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained

Posted by hkarner - 29. November 2017

Absolutely essential to understand ! (hfk)

Automation is not a new phenomenon, and fears about its transformation of the workplace and effects on employment date back centuries, even before the Industrial Revolution in the 18th and 19th centuries. In the 1960s, US President Lyndon Johnson empaneled a “National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress.” Among its conclusions was “the basic fact that technology destroys jobs, but not work.”* Fast forward and rapid recent advances in automation technologies, including artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, and robotics are now raising the fears anew—and with new urgency.

In our January 2017 report on automation, A future that works: Automation, employment, and productivity, we analyzed the automation potential of the global economy, the timelines over which the phenomenon could play out, and the powerful productivity boost that
automation adoption could deliver. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Changing Face of Work in India

Posted by hkarner - 18. Juli 2017

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Jobs in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

Posted by hkarner - 31. Mai 2017

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Technology, jobs, and the future of work

Posted by hkarner - 27. Mai 2017

By James Manyika, McKinsey Global Institute, May 2017

Automation, digital platforms, and other innovations are changing the fundamental nature of work. Understanding these shifts can help policy makers, business leaders, and workers move forward.

The world of work is in a state of flux, which is causing considerable anxiety—and with good reason. There is growing polarization of labor-market opportunities between high- and low-skill jobs, unemployment and underemployment especially among young people, stagnating incomes for a large proportion of households, and income inequality. Migration and its effects on jobs has become a sensitive political issue in many advanced economies. And from Mumbai to Manchester, public debate rages about the future of work and whether there will be enough jobs to gainfully employ everyone.

The development of automation enabled by technologies including robotics and artificial intelligence brings the promise of higher productivity (and with productivity, economic growth), increased efficiencies, safety, and convenience. But these technologies also raise difficult questions about the broader impact of automation on jobs, skills, wages, and the nature of work itself. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Where US Manufacturing Jobs Really Went

Posted by hkarner - 4. Mai 2017

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Find Out If a Robot Will Take Your Job

Posted by hkarner - 21. April 2017

Date: 20-04-2017
Source: TIME

At a community college in upstate New York, 12 cafeteria workers recently learned that they will lose their jobs — and be replaced by self-serve machines. It’s an issue that has played out in communities across the country, as robots get better and better at doing jobs — from taking fast food orders to mining coal — that once belonged to humans.

Is your job next? The answer to that question is complicated, according to a report by management consultant McKinsey, but most workers don’t need to worry. Experts found that less than 5% of jobs can be completely replaced by technology, though nearly every job involves tasks that robots could learn to do.
Enter your occupation below to see how much of your work may someday be done by machines.

Jobs with predictable activities in structured environments are the easiest to replicate with robots, a process known as automation. McKinsey estimates that 51% of all job-related activities in the U.S. economy fit this description, largely in manufacturing, food service and retail trade sectors. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why Don’t All Jobs Matter?

Posted by hkarner - 18. April 2017

Date: 17-04-2017
Source: The New York Times Paul Krugman

President Trump is still promising to bring back coal jobs. But the underlying reasons for coal employment’s decline — automation, falling electricity demand, cheap natural gas, technological progress in wind and solar — won’t go away.

Meanwhile, last week the Treasury Department officially (and correctly) declined to name China as a currency manipulator, making nonsense of everything Mr. Trump has said about reviving manufacturing.

So will the Trump administration ever do anything substantive to bring back mining and manufacturing jobs? Probably not.

But let me ask a different question: Why does public discussion of job loss focus so intensely on mining and manufacturing, while virtually ignoring the big declines in some service sectors? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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