Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Jobs’

The ‘Everything Handmade’ Trend Will Curb Job Losses

Posted by hkarner - 22. Juli 2018

Date: 21-07-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Jay W. Richards

Automation will eliminate some jobs, but consumers will often pay a premium for the human touch.

Experts have predicted the looming automation of everything, with machines replacing labor and putting half the population out of work. This forecast seems to follow from basic economic logic:

Economic growth is about getting more output from less input.

Labor is an input.

We are now devising powerful forms of automation, which will dilute our labor to homeopathic levels—especially in middle skill, blue-collar trades.

Therefore, much of the population will soon be jobless.

That inference is too simple. There’s disruption ahead, but other trends may fend off the job famine. Here’s one: As ever more goods become cheap commodities, the economic value of the human touch—of literal labor—goes up. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The insecurity of freelance work

Posted by hkarner - 18. Juni 2018

Date: 17-06-2018
Source: The Economist: Bartleby

Measuring changes in employment is proving difficult

THE decline of the conventional job has been much heralded in recent years. It is now nearly axiomatic that people will work for a range of employers in a variety of roles over their lifetimes, with a much more flexible schedule than in the past. Opinion is still divided over whether this change is a cause for concern or a chance for workers to be liberated from the rut of office life.

Is the shift really happening? Some figures from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), released on June 7th, showed that only 10.1% of American workers were in “alternative employment” last year, a lower proportion than the 10.7% recorded in 2005. In contrast, a study of the British economy by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) shows that the self-employed sector has been growing, with the number of self-employed sole traders rising by 25% between 2007-08 and 2015-16.

These two measures are different. But getting a good statistical fix is not easy when the jobs are hard to define. The ecology of the alternative-employment market has many species. At the top end are independent consultants with six-figure salaries and tax advantages from their self-employed status; at the bottom are cleaners on the minimum wage working for an agency. Some people will be on “zero hours” contracts where they are unsure of their income from week to week. Then there are jobs in the “gig economy”—people connected to work via websites, such as freelancers labelling photos to help artificial-intelligence programs. Plenty of people use the gig economy to top up income, rather than relying on it. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Seven Jobs Robots Will Create—or Expand

Posted by hkarner - 2. Mai 2018

Date: 01-05-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Artificial intelligence threatens to destroy a lot of jobs. But there’s another side to the story.

Now Hiring: Robot Babysitters

Robots need managers too. Meet one robot specialist who gets paid to look after several robot security guards that roam offices in the San Francisco Bay Area.

As machines get smarter, there is a persistent fear in the minds of economists, policy makers and, well, everybody: Millions of people will be left obsolete and jobless.

But the effects of artificial intelligence are likely to be a lot more complex than that.

Yes, jobs will be lost, and many people will be forced to learn new skills to keep up in this new environment. But experts say the picture has a surprisingly big silver lining.
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A study finds nearly half of jobs are vulnerable to automation

Posted by hkarner - 26. April 2018

Date: 24-04-2018
Source: The Economist

That could free people to pursue more interesting careers

A WAVE of automation anxiety has hit the West. Just try typing “Will machines…” into Google. An algorithm offers to complete the sentence with differing degrees of disquiet: “…take my job?”; “…take all jobs?”; “…replace humans?”; “…take over the world?”

Job-grabbing robots are no longer science fiction. In 2013 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne of Oxford University used—what else?—a machine-learning algorithm to assess how easily 702 different kinds of job in America could be automated. They concluded that fully 47% could be done by machines “over the next decade or two”.

A new working paper by the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries, employs a similar approach, looking at other developed economies. Its technique differs from Mr Frey and Mr Osborne’s study by assessing the automatability of each task within a given job, based on a survey of skills in 2015. Overall, the study finds that 14% of jobs across 32 countries are highly vulnerable, defined as having at least a 70% chance of automation. A further 32% were slightly less imperilled, with a probability between 50% and 70%. At current employment rates, that puts 210m jobs at risk across the 32 countries in the study.

https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/employment/automation-skills-use-and-training_2e2f4eea-en Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Automation Isn’t Killing Jobs, Study Says, But May Be Keeping Income in Check

Posted by hkarner - 11. März 2018

Date: 10-03-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

New research finds workers are getting a smaller slice of an expanding economy

Robotic arms weld car frames in a Japanese auto factory in December.
Employment in transportation equipment manufacturing was nearly unchanged between 1970 and 2007, but the sector became far more productive.

A new study rebuts the notion that automation is eliminating jobs broadly in the economy, but does find technological advancement doesn’t reward workers much with added income.

Over the previous five decades, automation hasn’t reduced the number of jobs available in 18 advanced economies, including the U.S.–in fact, it helped increase total employment, finds a new paper by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s David Autor and Utrecht University’s Anna Salomons and released Thursday by the Brookings Institution.

But the economists’ paper also found that automation, and the productivity enhancements that it drives, has resulted in laborers taking home a smaller slice of an expanding economic pie. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why governments have overestimated the economic returns of higher education

Posted by hkarner - 4. März 2018

Date: 02-03-2018
Source: The Economist

Earning a degree is about signalling, and not just learning

AUTOMATION and globalisation have brought drastic changes to Western labour markets. Middle-skilled jobs are disappearing fast. In America, wages for blue-collar workers have been largely stagnant since the 1970s, whereas those for university graduates have soared. Silicon Valley types frequently warn that advances in technology, especially in artificial intelligence, will be devastating for low-skilled workers. One prominent study, by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne of Oxford University, estimated that 47% of jobs in America could be automated over the next two decades. The spectre of mass unemployment, along with increasing levels of income equality, has led many policymakers to see investment in university as crucial for economic prosperity.

Governments have plenty of reason to be bullish about higher education. Perhaps the best piece of evidence they have of the wisdom of investing more in universities is the graduate-wage premium—the difference in wages between those with university degrees and those without. In their book “The Race between Education and Technology”, Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz of Harvard University point out that this premium fell during the first half of the 20th century in America as universities expanded enrolment, but started rising sharply around 1980. Although the premium has started to level off in recent years, the fact that university graduates still make around 70% more than non-graduates suggests that demand for skilled workers still far exceeds supply. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Digitalisierung bedroht 3,4 Millionen Jobs

Posted by hkarner - 3. Februar 2018

Date: 02-02-2018
Source: SPIEGEL

Bis 2022 könnte die Digitalisierung in Deutschland etwa 3,4 Millionen Arbeitsplätze kosten, das wäre jede zehnte Stelle. Das berichtet die „FAZ“. Jedes vierte Unternehmen sieht sogar seine Existenz bedroht.

Roboter arbeiten an einer Auto-Karosserie

Die deutsche Wirtschaft boomt, die Arbeitslosenquote ist auf ein Rekordtief gefallen und Unternehmen suchen händeringend nach Arbeitskräften. Das könnte sich einem Medienbericht zufolge bald ändern. In den kommenden fünf Jahren könnte die Digitalisierung in Deutschland 3,4 Millionen Stellen vernichten. Das geht aus einer Umfrage des IT-Verbands Bitkom hervor, die der „Frankfurter Allgemeinen Zeitung“ vorliegt.

Angesichts von aktuell knapp 33 Millionen sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten entspräche das mehr als jeder zehnten Stelle. Für die Umfrage wurden 500 deutsche Unternehmen mit mehr als 20 Mitarbeitern befragt. Demnach sieht sich jedes vierte Unternehmen durch die Digitalisierung sogar ganz in seiner Existenz bedroht.

Bitkom-Präsident Achim Berg kritisiert vor diesem Hintergrund die gegenwärtigen Koalitionsverhandlungen. Arzthonorare, Rentenniveau, Soli-Abschmelzung – „seltsam entrückt“ komme ihm das alles vor, sagte er der „FAZ“. Die Politik betreibe zum Thema Digitalisierung bislang nicht mehr als „Buzzword-Bingo“. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Every study we could find on what automation will do to jobs, in one chart

Posted by hkarner - 27. Januar 2018

 Who protects us from „such“ „experts“? (hfk)

Date: 26-01-2018
Source: Technology Review

There are about as many opinions as there are experts.

You’ve seen the headlines: “Robots Will Destroy Our Jobs—and We’re Not Ready for It.” “You Will Lose Your Job to a Robot—and Sooner Than You Think.” “Robots May Steal as Many as 800 Million Jobs in the Next 13 Years.”

Such stories are tempting to take at face value. Who wouldn’t want to know if their livelihood, or that of their children, will soon be in jeopardy?

Here’s the problem: the findings cited emanate from a wide array of studies released by companies, think tanks, and research institutions. And their prognostications are all over the map. They’re coming so fast and thick, in fact, that we here at MIT Technology Review decided to start keeping tabs on all the numbers different groups have come up with about predicted job losses (and some gains) at the hands of automation, robots, and AI. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Stupid Economy

Posted by hkarner - 23. Januar 2018

Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation. A specialist on German economic history and on globalization, he is a co-author of the new book The Euro and The Battle of Ideas, and the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle, Krupp: A History of the Legendary German Firm, and Making the European Monetary Union.

Advances in automation and artificial intelligence already pose a clear threat to countless occupations, just as the technologies of the Industrial Revolution did for many forms of manual labor in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. But this time, it is not just our jobs that are in danger.

PRINCETON – Most discussions about the march of robotics and artificial intelligence (AI) have understandably concentrated on fears of massive job losses. But the implications of these technologies are actually far more terrifying. We have been brought to the brink of an alarming evolutionary transformation, not just of human capacities, but of the individual self.

History provides only a partial guide for the uncertain future we face. What we know from the first Industrial Revolution is that new technologies can fundamentally alter humans and other species. The key to this process, according to Cambridge University’s Tony Wrigley, the great historian of the era, was the replacement of human- and animal-driven mechanical energy by more productive forms, such as coal and other fossil fuels. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Two Myths About Automation

Posted by hkarner - 13. Dezember 2017

Barry Eichengreen is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. His latest book is Hall of Mirrors:The Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the Uses – and Misuses – of History.

While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

BERKELEY – Robots, machine learning, and artificial intelligence promise to change fundamentally the nature of work. Everyone knows this. Or at least they think they do.

Specifically, they think they know two things. First, more jobs than ever are threatened. “Forrester Predicts that AI-enabled Automation will Eliminate 9% of US Jobs in 2018,” declares one headline. “McKinsey: One-third of US workers could be jobless by 2030 due to automation,” seconds another.

Reports like these leave the impression that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically. But there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the United States and across the advanced-country world.

Moreover, as the economist Timothy Taylor recently pointed out, the rate of change of the occupational structure, defined as the absolute value of jobs added in growing occupations and jobs lost in declining occupations, has been slowing, not accelerating, since the 1980s. This is not to deny that the occupational structure is changing. But it calls into question the widely held view that the pace of change is quickening.

The second thing everyone thinks they know is that previously safe jobs are now at risk. Once upon a time, it was possible to argue that robots would displace workers engaged in routine tasks, but not the highly skilled and educated – not the doctors, lawyers and, dare one say, professors. In particular, machines, it was said, are not capable of tasks in which empathy, compassion, intuition, interpersonal interaction, and communication are central.

Now, however, these distinctions are breaking down. Amazon’s Alexa can communicate. Crowd-sourcing, together with one’s digital history, can intuit buying habits. Artificial intelligence can be used to read x-rays and diagnose medical conditions. As a result, all jobs, even those of doctors, lawyers, and professors, are being transformed.

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