Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Jobs’

AI and Automation Will Replace Most Human Workers Because They Don’t Have to Be Perfect—Just Better Than You

Posted by hkarner - 22. November 2018

Date: 21-11-2018
Source: NewsWeek BY ELLEN RUPPEL SHELL

Sawyer the Robot will work for the equivalent of $4 per day. And he’s never in a bad mood. Can you compete with that?

Ellen Ruppel Shell is the author of The Job: Work and Its Future in a Time of Radical Change, from which this piece was adapted.

Route 9 skims by Boston and cuts clear across Massachusetts to Pittsfield, a city of roughly 50,000, the largest in Berkshire County. Well east of Pittsfield, Route 9 becomes Worcester Road, named for a city that in earlier times was the nation’s largest manufacturer of wire—barbed wire, electrical wire, telephone wire and the wire used in the making of undergarments by the Royal Worcester Corset Co., once the largest employer of women in the United States. Older Worcester residents can still recall the factory bells pealing to signal the start and end of the workday. Now, the bells are silent, and the wire and corset factories have been replaced with three of the nation’s largest employers: Walmart, Target and Home Depot. If this sounds familiar, it should. It has been nearly two decades since retail overtook manufacturing as the nation’s most important job creator, employing roughly one of every 10 American workers—more people than in health care and construction combined. That’s a lot of jobs. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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AI Guru Andrew Ng on the Job Market of Tomorrow

Posted by hkarner - 27. Oktober 2018

Date: 27-10-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Sara Castellanos

The co-founder of Google’s deep-learning research team on the promise of a conditional basic income, the need for a skills-based education system and what CEOs don’t understand about artificial intelligence

AI Guru Andrew Ng on the Job Market of Tomorrow

Sentient artificial intelligence may take hundreds of years to develop, but AI is already beginning to transform nearly every industry, says Andrew Ng, a pioneer in the field.

Ng is the former chief scientist of Baidu, where he started a 1,300-person division that helped create the Chinese tech conglomerate’s AI-powered search engine, virtual assistant and other products. Before that, he co-founded Google Brain, the company’s deep-learning research team. His work on neural networks helped lead to the creation of an image-identification system that underpins the Android mobile operating system’s speech recognition. Ng also co-founded Coursera, an online education company.

In April 2017, the 42-year-old left Baidu to launch two AI startups in Palo Alto, Calif.: an online education platform called deeplearning.ai and Landing AI, which aims to bring AI to companies in manufacturing, agriculture and other industries. He recently spoke with The Future of Everything about how to create an equitable society in the age of automation, the way CEOs unintentionally mislead the public about AI and why—this time—the technology is here to stay.

AI Will Be Wired in Like Electricity
AI is a general purpose technology similar to the internet and electricity—applicable to a lot of industries. It’s hard to imagine running most companies or governments without the internet. In the future, we’ll have a hard time imagining how to run these things without great AI capabilities as well. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The ‘Everything Handmade’ Trend Will Curb Job Losses

Posted by hkarner - 22. Juli 2018

Date: 21-07-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Jay W. Richards

Automation will eliminate some jobs, but consumers will often pay a premium for the human touch.

Experts have predicted the looming automation of everything, with machines replacing labor and putting half the population out of work. This forecast seems to follow from basic economic logic:

Economic growth is about getting more output from less input.

Labor is an input.

We are now devising powerful forms of automation, which will dilute our labor to homeopathic levels—especially in middle skill, blue-collar trades.

Therefore, much of the population will soon be jobless.

That inference is too simple. There’s disruption ahead, but other trends may fend off the job famine. Here’s one: As ever more goods become cheap commodities, the economic value of the human touch—of literal labor—goes up. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The insecurity of freelance work

Posted by hkarner - 18. Juni 2018

Date: 17-06-2018
Source: The Economist: Bartleby

Measuring changes in employment is proving difficult

THE decline of the conventional job has been much heralded in recent years. It is now nearly axiomatic that people will work for a range of employers in a variety of roles over their lifetimes, with a much more flexible schedule than in the past. Opinion is still divided over whether this change is a cause for concern or a chance for workers to be liberated from the rut of office life.

Is the shift really happening? Some figures from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS), released on June 7th, showed that only 10.1% of American workers were in “alternative employment” last year, a lower proportion than the 10.7% recorded in 2005. In contrast, a study of the British economy by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) shows that the self-employed sector has been growing, with the number of self-employed sole traders rising by 25% between 2007-08 and 2015-16.

These two measures are different. But getting a good statistical fix is not easy when the jobs are hard to define. The ecology of the alternative-employment market has many species. At the top end are independent consultants with six-figure salaries and tax advantages from their self-employed status; at the bottom are cleaners on the minimum wage working for an agency. Some people will be on “zero hours” contracts where they are unsure of their income from week to week. Then there are jobs in the “gig economy”—people connected to work via websites, such as freelancers labelling photos to help artificial-intelligence programs. Plenty of people use the gig economy to top up income, rather than relying on it. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Seven Jobs Robots Will Create—or Expand

Posted by hkarner - 2. Mai 2018

Date: 01-05-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Artificial intelligence threatens to destroy a lot of jobs. But there’s another side to the story.

Now Hiring: Robot Babysitters

Robots need managers too. Meet one robot specialist who gets paid to look after several robot security guards that roam offices in the San Francisco Bay Area.

As machines get smarter, there is a persistent fear in the minds of economists, policy makers and, well, everybody: Millions of people will be left obsolete and jobless.

But the effects of artificial intelligence are likely to be a lot more complex than that.

Yes, jobs will be lost, and many people will be forced to learn new skills to keep up in this new environment. But experts say the picture has a surprisingly big silver lining.
Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A study finds nearly half of jobs are vulnerable to automation

Posted by hkarner - 26. April 2018

Date: 24-04-2018
Source: The Economist

That could free people to pursue more interesting careers

A WAVE of automation anxiety has hit the West. Just try typing “Will machines…” into Google. An algorithm offers to complete the sentence with differing degrees of disquiet: “…take my job?”; “…take all jobs?”; “…replace humans?”; “…take over the world?”

Job-grabbing robots are no longer science fiction. In 2013 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne of Oxford University used—what else?—a machine-learning algorithm to assess how easily 702 different kinds of job in America could be automated. They concluded that fully 47% could be done by machines “over the next decade or two”.

A new working paper by the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries, employs a similar approach, looking at other developed economies. Its technique differs from Mr Frey and Mr Osborne’s study by assessing the automatability of each task within a given job, based on a survey of skills in 2015. Overall, the study finds that 14% of jobs across 32 countries are highly vulnerable, defined as having at least a 70% chance of automation. A further 32% were slightly less imperilled, with a probability between 50% and 70%. At current employment rates, that puts 210m jobs at risk across the 32 countries in the study.

https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/employment/automation-skills-use-and-training_2e2f4eea-en Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Automation Isn’t Killing Jobs, Study Says, But May Be Keeping Income in Check

Posted by hkarner - 11. März 2018

Date: 10-03-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

New research finds workers are getting a smaller slice of an expanding economy

Robotic arms weld car frames in a Japanese auto factory in December.
Employment in transportation equipment manufacturing was nearly unchanged between 1970 and 2007, but the sector became far more productive.

A new study rebuts the notion that automation is eliminating jobs broadly in the economy, but does find technological advancement doesn’t reward workers much with added income.

Over the previous five decades, automation hasn’t reduced the number of jobs available in 18 advanced economies, including the U.S.–in fact, it helped increase total employment, finds a new paper by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s David Autor and Utrecht University’s Anna Salomons and released Thursday by the Brookings Institution.

But the economists’ paper also found that automation, and the productivity enhancements that it drives, has resulted in laborers taking home a smaller slice of an expanding economic pie. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why governments have overestimated the economic returns of higher education

Posted by hkarner - 4. März 2018

Date: 02-03-2018
Source: The Economist

Earning a degree is about signalling, and not just learning

AUTOMATION and globalisation have brought drastic changes to Western labour markets. Middle-skilled jobs are disappearing fast. In America, wages for blue-collar workers have been largely stagnant since the 1970s, whereas those for university graduates have soared. Silicon Valley types frequently warn that advances in technology, especially in artificial intelligence, will be devastating for low-skilled workers. One prominent study, by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne of Oxford University, estimated that 47% of jobs in America could be automated over the next two decades. The spectre of mass unemployment, along with increasing levels of income equality, has led many policymakers to see investment in university as crucial for economic prosperity.

Governments have plenty of reason to be bullish about higher education. Perhaps the best piece of evidence they have of the wisdom of investing more in universities is the graduate-wage premium—the difference in wages between those with university degrees and those without. In their book “The Race between Education and Technology”, Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz of Harvard University point out that this premium fell during the first half of the 20th century in America as universities expanded enrolment, but started rising sharply around 1980. Although the premium has started to level off in recent years, the fact that university graduates still make around 70% more than non-graduates suggests that demand for skilled workers still far exceeds supply. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Digitalisierung bedroht 3,4 Millionen Jobs

Posted by hkarner - 3. Februar 2018

Date: 02-02-2018
Source: SPIEGEL

Bis 2022 könnte die Digitalisierung in Deutschland etwa 3,4 Millionen Arbeitsplätze kosten, das wäre jede zehnte Stelle. Das berichtet die „FAZ“. Jedes vierte Unternehmen sieht sogar seine Existenz bedroht.

Roboter arbeiten an einer Auto-Karosserie

Die deutsche Wirtschaft boomt, die Arbeitslosenquote ist auf ein Rekordtief gefallen und Unternehmen suchen händeringend nach Arbeitskräften. Das könnte sich einem Medienbericht zufolge bald ändern. In den kommenden fünf Jahren könnte die Digitalisierung in Deutschland 3,4 Millionen Stellen vernichten. Das geht aus einer Umfrage des IT-Verbands Bitkom hervor, die der „Frankfurter Allgemeinen Zeitung“ vorliegt.

Angesichts von aktuell knapp 33 Millionen sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten entspräche das mehr als jeder zehnten Stelle. Für die Umfrage wurden 500 deutsche Unternehmen mit mehr als 20 Mitarbeitern befragt. Demnach sieht sich jedes vierte Unternehmen durch die Digitalisierung sogar ganz in seiner Existenz bedroht.

Bitkom-Präsident Achim Berg kritisiert vor diesem Hintergrund die gegenwärtigen Koalitionsverhandlungen. Arzthonorare, Rentenniveau, Soli-Abschmelzung – „seltsam entrückt“ komme ihm das alles vor, sagte er der „FAZ“. Die Politik betreibe zum Thema Digitalisierung bislang nicht mehr als „Buzzword-Bingo“. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Every study we could find on what automation will do to jobs, in one chart

Posted by hkarner - 27. Januar 2018

 Who protects us from „such“ „experts“? (hfk)

Date: 26-01-2018
Source: Technology Review

There are about as many opinions as there are experts.

You’ve seen the headlines: “Robots Will Destroy Our Jobs—and We’re Not Ready for It.” “You Will Lose Your Job to a Robot—and Sooner Than You Think.” “Robots May Steal as Many as 800 Million Jobs in the Next 13 Years.”

Such stories are tempting to take at face value. Who wouldn’t want to know if their livelihood, or that of their children, will soon be in jeopardy?

Here’s the problem: the findings cited emanate from a wide array of studies released by companies, think tanks, and research institutions. And their prognostications are all over the map. They’re coming so fast and thick, in fact, that we here at MIT Technology Review decided to start keeping tabs on all the numbers different groups have come up with about predicted job losses (and some gains) at the hands of automation, robots, and AI. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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