Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Japan’

Risk taking and firm growth

Posted by hkarner - 4. August 2015

Peng Xu 03 August 2015, voxeu

Professor and Director, Institute of Comparative Economic Studies, Hosei University

According to Hofstede’s analysis, Japan is one of the most uncertainty-avoiding countries. Indeed, Japanese firms exhibit the lowest level of risk taking in the cross-country analysis of John et al. (2008). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How the Eurozone Should Deal With Pushback

Posted by hkarner - 12. Juni 2015

Date: 11-06-2015
Source: The Wall Street Journal By SIMON NIXON

A bold solution is needed to persuade unruly member states to undertake economic overhauls

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has objected to measures that the country’s creditors have insisted upon in exchange for fresh aid.

Whatever the outcome of the interminable Greek crisis, it has highlighted a major challenge for the eurozone: How does it induce a member state to pursue policies vital not only to its own economic fortunes, but also to those of every other country to which it is yoked? How can sovereign governments—including those not facing the prospect of imminent default if they refuse to accept the conditions attached to a bailout program—be persuaded to undertake reforms that will make their economies more flexible and therefore better able to withstand shocks? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Stefan Kooths: „Am Ende steht ökonomisches Chaos“

Posted by hkarner - 5. Juni 2015

04.06.2015 | 18:28 | von Jakob Zirm (Die Presse)

Kooths ccDer deutsche Ökonom Stefan Kooths sieht durch die expansive Geldpolitik ein „Konservieren von Zombie-Strukturen“. Die Chancen auf eine sanfte Landung seien sehr gering.

Die Presse: Die Zeichen stehen auf Aufschwung, aber im ersten Quartal schwächelte ausgerechnet die Konjunkturlokomotive Deutschland. Macht Ihnen das Sorgen?

Stefan Kooths: Die deutsche Konjunktur wird vor allem durch das extrem expansive monetäre Umfeld unter Dampf gesetzt. Und dabei sehe ich weniger die Gefahr, dass es zu einem Stottern kommt, als jene, dass man nichts gegen die Überhitzung unternimmt.


Die USA sind deutlich schwächer als die Erwartungen. Wie passt das ins Bild?

Auch hier haben manche erwartet, dass es einen konjunkturellen Durchmarsch geben wird. Dass der nicht gekommen ist, führt nun aber auch hier eher zu den Befürchtungen, dass der expansive Kurs in der Geldpolitik – der unserer Meinung nach ohnehin schon viel zu lange anhält – nun weitergeht und sich die verschiedenen Länder oder Währungsräume sogar gegenseitig hochschaukeln.

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Are the Good Times Over?

Posted by hkarner - 28. April 2015

Date: 27-04-2015
Source: Project Syndicate


Michael J. Boskin is Professor of Economics at Stanford University and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He was Chairman of George H. W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1989 to 1993, and headed the so-called Boskin Commission, a congressional advisory body that highlighted errors in official US inflation estimates.

STANFORD – In the 25 years before the Great Recession of 2008-2009, the United States experienced two brief, mild recessions and two strong, long expansions. Globally, incomes grew briskly; inflation abated; and stock markets boomed. Moreover, the recovery from the last major slump, in the early 1980s, brought about a quarter-century of unprecedentedly strong and stable macroeconomic performance. This time, however, the return to growth has been much more difficult.

America’s recovery since the Great Recession, has been inconsistent, with growth repeatedly picking up and then sputtering out. In fact, the US has not experienced three consecutive quarters of 3% growth in a decade. Though lower oil prices are helping consumers, this gain is partly offset by less energy investment, and the effects of the stronger dollar will be even larger. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Financial Risks Rise Amid Uneven Global Economic Recovery

Posted by hkarner - 16. April 2015

Posted on by iMFdirect


By José Viñals

The three main messages from this Global Financial Stability Report are:

  1. Risks to the global financial system have risen since October and have rotated to parts of the financial system where they are harder to assess and harder to address.
  2. Advanced economies need to enhance the traction of monetary policies to achieve their goals, while managing undesirable financial side effects of low interest rates.
  3. To withstand the global crosscurrents of lower oil prices, rising U.S. policy rates, and a stronger dollar, emerging markets must increase the resilience of their financial systems by addressing domestic vulnerabilities.

Let me now discuss these findings in detail. 

Financial stability risks have risen amid a moderate and uneven global economic recovery—with rates of inflation that are too low in many countries. Divergent growth and monetary policies have increased tensions in global financial markets and caused rapid and volatile moves in exchange rates and interest rates over the past six months. In part, this situation results from the legacy of weakened and incomplete repair of private sector balance sheets. Risks are also rotating—away from banks to shadow banks, from solvency to market liquidity risks, and from advanced economies to emerging markets. 

In light of this, five key challenges must be met to safeguard global financial stability. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Japan’s Devaluation Warning for Europe

Posted by hkarner - 17. März 2015

Date: 17-03-2015
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Monetary easing without reform has reduced real wages.

Amid the excitement as the European Central Bank began sovereign bond buying last week, Europeans might have missed that real wages in Japan fell again in January. Japanese households earn 7.5% less in inflation-adjusted terms now than before the 2008 financial panic, and about half of that decline has come during Tokyo’s “quantitative easing” program. This is a warning for Europe.

The similarities between Japan in 2013 as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took power and the eurozone now are striking. Japan was in deflation; Europe has appeared close to it. Japanese worried that the yen, which had risen to around ¥77 per dollar in 2012, was badly overvalued. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi warned in April last year, when the euro was about $1.38, that “a rise in the exchange rate, all else being equal, implies a tightening of monetary conditions, a downward impact on inflation and potentially a threat to the ongoing recovery.”

So the Bank of Japan and ECB have fired their monetary bazookas at the deflation threat. The main goal has been competitive devaluation. With loan demand and banks weak, the traditional mechanism of monetary stimulus—increased liquidity and lower interest rates stimulating more lending—wouldn’t work. But policy makers hope a weaker currency will boost exports, higher earnings for exporters will trigger stronger business investment and trickle down to higher wages, which will lead to more domestic consumption and growth. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Inequality in Japan: The secure v the poor

Posted by hkarner - 16. Februar 2015

Date: 15-02-2015

Source: The Economist

The problem is not the super-rich

IN THOMAS PIKETTY’S bestseller, “Capital in the Twenty-First Century”, Japan appears as another rich country in which wealth is becoming ever more concentrated. It is certainly another rich country in which the book is selling well. Mr Piketty visited Tokyo this month, to a rapturous reception. Yet Japan may be the place where his thesis holds up least well.

The bursting of Japan’s asset bubble in 1991 is one reason why the rich have amassed less than in America or many European countries. The share of wealth held by the richest tenth of Japanese is lower than in famously egalitarian spots such as Norway and Sweden. In fact, it is the second-lowest of the 46 economies surveyed by Credit Suisse Research Institute, above only Belgium. The share of income going to the wealthiest has been fairly stable too. Levels of executive pay are far less egregious than in America. According to an analysis prepared for the Wall Street Journal by Mr Piketty’s collaborators, the share of national income taken by the top 1% in Japan, excluding capital gains, fell from a high of 9.5% in 2008 to 9% in 2012. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Monetary policies and falling inflation are behind currency turmoil

Posted by hkarner - 7. Februar 2015

Date: 07-02-2015
Source: The Economist
Subject: Currencies: Money-changers at bay

Forex volatilityEARLY trade was conducted in whatever currency was available. Coins circulated across borders in a bewildering variety of forms, creating the need for middlemen to value one token against another. These were the “money-changers” whom Jesus threw out of the temple.

Two thousand years later the foreign-exchange markets are still in turmoil. In January the Swiss National Bank abandoned its policy of capping the Swiss franc against the euro, catching many traders and investors by surprise. As the franc rose by 30% in a few minutes, many foreign-exchange brokers lost money (one went bust) and a hedge-fund manager, Everest Capital, lost so much that it had to close its main fund. Eastern Europeans who had taken out mortgages in Swiss francs also suffered—so much so that Croatia voted to peg its currency, the kuna, against the franc.

Other currencies are also under pressure. The Russian rouble has plunged against the dollar in the face of a declining oil price and sanctions by the West. This week the Reserve Bank of Australia unveiled a surprise rate cut, sending the Aussie dollar down to its lowest level against the US dollar since May 2009. Denmark has had to cut interest rates three times, further and further into negative territory, in order to discourage capital inflows that were threatening its peg against the euro. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Two Cheers for the New Normal

Posted by hkarner - 5. Februar 2015

Date: 05-02-2015
Source: Project Syndicate

Jim O’Neill, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, is Honorary Professor of Economics at Manchester University, a visiting research fellow at the economic think tank Bruegel, and a fellow of the University of Cambridge’s Center for Rising Powers.

JAKARTA – The conventional wisdom about the state of the world economy goes something like this: Since the start of the 2007-2008 financial crisis, the developed world has struggled to recover, with only the United States able to adjust. Emerging countries have fared better, but they, too, have started to flounder lately. In a bleak economic climate, the argument goes, the only winners have been the wealthy, resulting in skyrocketing inequality.

That scenario sounds entirely right – until, on closer examination, it turns out to be completely wrong.

Start with economic growth. According to the International Monetary Fund, during the first decade of this century, annual global growth averaged 3.7%, compared to 3.3% in the 1980s and 1990s. In the last four years, growth has averaged 3.4%. This is far lower than what many had hoped; in 2010, I predicted that in the coming decade, the world could grow at a 4.1% annual rate. But 3.4% is hardly disastrous by historical standards. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Sum of All Our Fears! The Outlook for 2015

Posted by hkarner - 5. Februar 2015

Author: Satyajit Das  ·  February 3rd, 2015  ·  RGE EconoMonitorDAS 2

In 2013, an asset management consultancy identified alien invasion as a risk for the global economy, albeit an unlikely one. An online reader wryly observed that even such an event would be an excuse for markets to rally further as businesses could look forward to the prospect of demand from new non-human customers. Since 2009, financial markets have largely ignored risk, constructing a favourable narrative around events and rallying on any information.

Risky Economics…

In 2014, growth in advanced economies disappointed. Europe flirted with recession. Even the fireworks of Abenomics could not prevent Japan sliding into its fourth technical recession in six year since 2008. The US and UK were the cleanest of the dirty shirts. But even they grew below trend.

Recovery in employment and income levels is lack lustre. Investment remains weak.  Growth in global trade, a driver of growth, has slowed. Low interest rates are driving speculative housing booms and investment in bio-tech and technology, especially the sharing economy.

Based on its most recent fund raising, Uber was valued at US$40 billion, more than doubling its value in six months. The ride locating service is valued at a multiple of traditional car hire firms such as Hertz and Avis. Uber’s value exceeds the market capitalisation of publicly listed transport companies such as Delta Air Lines, American Airlines and United Continental.

Compounding the problem is low inflation. In Japan and Europe, there is concern about deflation. Despite fears ofhyperinflation, abundant liquidity has not led to anticipated price increases. This reflects slow circulation of money, weaknesses in the bank sector, surplus capacity and lack of pricing power.

The combination of modest economic growth, low inflation or deflation and high debt levels is toxic. As income levels fall, the ability to service debt declines. A shrinking economy increases debt-to-GDP levels. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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