Posts Tagged ‘Japan’
Posted by hkarner - 21. März 2016
Mit einer Anmerkung von Heiner Flassbeck
Endlich! Zwei Ökonomen des IWF haben begriffen, dass der Weg zum Wirtschaftswachstum letztlich über Lohnerhöhungen führt. Ihr 4-Punkte-Programm ist nicht nur für Japan wegweisend.
Alle reden von Helikoptergeld. Die beiden IMF Ökonomen Luc Everaert und Giovanni Ganelli haben eine viel bessere Idee. In ihrem Paper unter dem Titel „Japan: Time to Load a Fourth Arrow-Wage Increases“ kommen sie gleich zum Kern des Problems: die stagnierenden Löhne. Seit 1995 sind die Löhne für Vollzeitstellen in Japan nur gerade mal um 0,55 Prozent gestiegen! Um diesem Missstand abzuhelfen, schlagen sie vier konkrete Massnahmen vor:
- Profitable Unternehmen sollen entweder die Löhne jedes Jahr um mindestens 2 Prozent plus nationale Rate der Produktivitätssteigerung erhöhen. Oder sie müssen erklären, warum sie nicht tun und ihre Lohnpolitik offenlegen. Dieser Offenlegungspflicht lehnt sich an entsprechende Regelungen im Deutschen Corporate Governance Kodex an. Stichwort: Comply or Explain.
- Die Regierung soll Massnahmen ergreifen, um Lohnerhöhungen steuerlich zu begünstigen.
- Firmen, die steigende Profite nicht an die Arbeitnehmer weiter geben sollten mit Strafsteuern belebt werden.
- Der Staat muss mit Lohnerhöhungen voran gehen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Abenomics, Deflation, Flassbeck, Growth, Japan, Vontobel, Wages | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 11. März 2016
This week’s Outside the Box is a little bit different. I’m going to start with a selection from Mohamed El-Erian’s latest note. Mohamed himself is soft-spoken and calm, and I tell you that because the piece that follows is as close to capitals, underlining, and bolding with lots of exclamation points as Mohamed can get. He continues to get more concerned about the direction of central bank policy around the world and its unknown and unintended potential consequences. I will just cut and paste part of Mohamed’s essay into this introduction.
I want to follow up with a presentation by Kevin Wilson at Blue Water Capital on Japan. Basically, this piece illustrates the potential problems created by the current philosophical direction that the Bank of Japan is taking in their country. Essentially, Kevin is talking about the policy failure of Abenomics and the unintended consequences of negative interest rate policies (NIRP). A major economic disruption in Japan would have significant effects on the global economy. His summary sentence?
Given Japan’s massive debt and demographic headwinds, the oncoming recession may trigger an endgame that would involve a possible depression and eventual default and devaluation.
That speculation sounds a lot like what I was writing in Endgame and Code Red. While I see a little bit different outcome than Kevin does (in terms of what a default might look like), I think he has properly highlighted the concerns we should all have.
Now let’s look at Mohammed’s note: Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Abenomics, Default, Deflation, Depression, El-Erian, Japan, Mauldin, Wilson | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 29. Februar 2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Finance ministers say all tools are needed to sustain growth, but don’t call for coordinated spending
SHANGHAI—Citing mounting threats to the global economy, world financial chiefs vowed to accelerate long-promised economic overhauls to ease the burden on the easy-money stimulus policies that are fast running out of steam.
Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 largest economies meeting in Shanghai during the weekend sought to allay growing concerns that fissures in the global economy—including the potential for a sharp deceleration in the Chinese economy—could pitch the world back into recession.
“We will use all policy tools—monetary, fiscal and structural” to strengthen growth, boost investment and ensure stability in financial markets, the G-20 said in its official communiqué issued Saturday after two days of intense talks.
Global markets have shuddered in recent months amid a souring growth outlook, overall weak demand and anxieties that China’s economy may be falling faster than Beijing acknowledges and might potentially undermine an increasingly fragile global economy. The International Monetary Fund earlier this week said it likely would downgrade its forecast in coming months, calling for a coordinated program to boost demand. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: china, Finanzkrise, G20, IMF, Japan, Recession, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 19. Februar 2016
Stephen S. Roach
Stephen S. Roach, former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm’s chief economist, is a senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a senior lecturer at Yale’s School of Management. He is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.
FEB 18, 2016, Project Syndicate
NEW HAVEN – In what could well be a final act of desperation, central banks are abdicating effective control of the economies they have been entrusted to manage. First came zero interest rates, then quantitative easing, and now negative interest rates – one futile attempt begetting another. Just as the first two gambits failed to gain meaningful economic traction in chronically weak recoveries, the shift to negative rates will only compound the risks of financial instability and set the stage for the next crisis.
The adoption of negative interest rates – initially launched in Europe in 2014 and now embraced in Japan – represents a major turning point for central banking. Previously, emphasis had been placed on boosting aggregate demand – primarily by lowering the cost of borrowing, but also by spurring wealth effects from appreciating financial assets. But now, by imposing penalties on excess reserves left on deposit with central banks, negative interest rates drive stimulus through the supply side of the credit equation – in effect, urging banks to make new loans regardless of the demand for such funds. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Central Banks, Europe, Japan, Koo, QE, Roach | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 11. Februar 2016
Source: The Economist
JAPANESE ten-year bonds have joined the long list of government securities with a negative yield, offering minus 0.04% a year. In practice, that means investors who buy the bond now, and hold it until maturity, will have less money than they started with. Bloomberg estimates that nearly 30% of the global government bond market is trading on a negative yield; there are even some corporate bonds in the same position.
So why on earth should investors sign up to lose money? There are three main groups of bond buyers. The first is those investors who have to own government bonds, regardless of the financial return on offer. This category includes central banks, which hold bonds as part of their foreign exchange reserves; insurance companies, which need to hold bonds as part of their reserves; pension funds, which own bonds to match their liabilities; and banks, which need government bonds to meet liquidity requirements and also to pledge as collateral when they borrow in the money markets. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: bond yields, Bonds, Economist, Japan | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 10. Februar 2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal
When the European Central Bank announced its quantitative easing scheme last January, the euro plummeted to its lowest level in 13 years.
One year on, the euro is back where it started, raising more questions about the effectiveness of central bank action in the current climate.
On a trade weighted basis the euro is now once again more valuable than it was on the day for the ECB’s bond-buying program was laid out.
The trade-weighted measure compares the euro’s value to a basket of other currencies.
While the ECB has no official target for the euro’s exchange rates, a strengthening currency is bad news for a bank that believes that wants to increase inflation. A strong euro also makes European goods less competitive in global markets.
The ECB is not the only central bank struggling to convince markets. The Bank of Japan is likewise finding it harder to lower the value of the yen through monetary easing. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: ECB, Euro, Japan, QE, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 9. Februar 2016
Daniel Gros is Director of the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, and served as an economic adviser to the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the French prime minister and finance minister. He is the editor of Economie Internationale and International Finance.
FEB 9, 2016, Project Syndicate
BRUSSELS – For the better part of a decade, central banks have been making only limited headway in curbing powerful global deflationary forces. Since 2008, the US Federal Reserve has maintained zero interest rates, while pursuing multiple waves of unprecedented balance-sheet expansion through large-scale bond purchases. The Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank have followed suit, each with its own version of so-called “quantitative easing” (QE). Yet inflation has not picked up appreciably anywhere.
Despite their shared struggles with deflationary pressures, these countries’ monetary policies – and economic performance – are now diverging. Whereas the United States and the United Kingdom are now growing strongly enough to exit their expansionary policies and raise interest rates, the eurozone and Japan are doubling down on QE, pushing policy long-term interest rates further into negative territory. What explains this difference?
The short answer is debt. The US and the UK have been running current-account deficits for decades, and are thus debtors, while the eurozone and Japan have been running external surpluses, making them creditors. Because negative rates benefit debtors and harm creditors, introducing them after the global economic crisis spurred a recovery in the US and the UK, but had little effect in the eurozone and Japan. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Banken, Central Banks, current account balance, Debt, Deflation, ECB, Euro, Europe, Finanzkrise, Gros, Japan, QE, UK, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 9. Februar 2016
Wie dramatisch die globale Lage in der Realwirtschaft ist, zeigt sich aber unter anderem daran, dass gestern in Tokio zehnjährige japanische Staatsanleihen zum ersten Mal eine negative Rendite aufwiesen. Wenn das kein Signal an die Finanzpolitiker dieser Welt ist, dann gibt es keines mehr. Wer jetzt noch spart oder auch nur über Sparen redet, ist ein Narr. Und es werden diese Narren sein, die man verantwortlich machen muss für die Katastrophe, auf die die globale Wirtschaft zu schlittert.
Was zudem sehr nachdenklich stimmen sollte, ist die Tatsache, dass es weltweit vor allem Bankaktien sind, die diese Spirale nach unten anführen. Wir hatten ja schon vor einigen Wochen davor gewarnt (hier), dass das Geschäftsmodell der Deutschen Bank nicht haltbar ist (deren Kurs weltweit zu den größten Verlierern bei Bankaktien zählt und sich seit vergangenen September mehr als halbiert hat), es zeigt sich jetzt aber, dass nach der großen Finanzkrise von 2008/2009 die Reregulierungen bei weitem nicht hart genug waren. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Banken, Deutsche Bank, Finanzkrise, Flassbeck, Investment Banking, Japan, Regulieren, Stocks | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 6. Februar 2016
Adair Turner, a former chairman of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services Authority and former member of the UK’s Financial Policy Committee, is Chairman of the Institute for New Economic Thinking. His latest book is Between Debt and the Devil.
FEB 5, 2016, Project Syndicate
LONDON – Financial markets were surprised by the Bank of Japan’s recent introduction of negative interest rates on some commercial bank reserves. They shouldn’t have been. The BOJ clearly needed to take some new policy action to achieve its target of 2% inflation. But neither negative interest rates nor further expansion of the BOJ’s already huge program of quantitative easing (QE) will be sufficient to offset the strong deflationary forces that Japan now faces.
In 2013 the BOJ predicted that its QE operations would deliver 2% inflation within two years. But in 2015, core inflation (excluding volatile items such as food) was only 0.5%. With consumer spending and average earnings falling in December, the 2% target increasingly looks out of reach. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Central Banks, IMF, Inflation, Interest, Japan, QE, Turner | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 19. Dezember 2015
Koji Nomura 18 December 2015, voxeu
Associate Professor, Keio University; Faculty Fellow, RIET
Though Asian economies have maintained stable growth since 2010, their overall economic performance has slowed down compared to the peak in the 2000s. This column discusses the recent productivity trends in the Asian region and argues that the reason for the slowdown has been the end of China’s economic boom. Asian countries must undertake initiatives for achieving sustainable improvement of TFP across the region.
Recovery from the Global Crisis has been notably slow in the European economy, with growth rates for 2010-2013 steady at 0.4% per annum. In contrast, the US has managed to raise its growth rate to 2.0% per annum, and is beginning to return to its long-term growth track. The Asian economy, which has become increasingly autonomous from the Western economies and even contributed to stabilising the global economy at the time of the Global Crisis, has been maintaining a stable economic growth of on average 5.4% per annum since 2010. Yet, it has slowed down by one percentage point from the level recorded in the late 2000s. The main factor is the end of China’s economic boom. This article explains recent productivity trends across the Asian region, based on the APO Productivity Databook 2015, published by the Asian Productivity Organization (APO) in September 2015.1
Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Asean, Asia, Europe, Growth, Japan, Nomura, Productivity, TFP, voxeu | Leave a Comment »