Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Japan’

Europe’s Emerging Bubbles

Posted by hkarner - 29. März 2016

Photo of Hans-Werner Sinn

Hans-Werner Sinn

Hans-Werner Sinn, Professor of Economics and Public Finance at the University of Munich, is President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research and serves on the German economy ministry’s Advisory Council. He is the author, most recently, of The Euro Trap: On Bursting Bubbles, Budgets, and Beliefs.

MAR 28, 2016, Project Syndicate

MUNICH – The European Central Bank’s latest policy moves have shocked many observers. While the goal – to prevent deflation and spur growth – is clear, the policies themselves are setting the stage for severe instability.

The policies in question include setting the interest rate on the ECB’s main refinancing operations to zero; raising monthly asset purchases by €20 billion ($22.3 billion) to €80 billion; and pushing the interest rate on money that banks deposit with the ECB further into negative territory – to -0.40%. Moreover, the ECB has launched a new series of four targeted longer-term refinancing operations, which also carry negative interest rates. Banks receive up to 0.4% interest on ECB credit that they take themselves, provided they lend it out to private businesses. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Markets Have a Message: Don’t Believe This Rally

Posted by hkarner - 29. März 2016

Date: 29-03-2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal

As risky assets have rebounded since mid-February, the havens to which investors rushed during the earlier panic haven’t had an equivalent selloff

Amid the epic recovery in risky assets since mid-February, one thing has been missing: an equivalent selloff of the havens to which investors rushed during the earlier panic. Instead of the usual reckless rally, this has been a very cautious comeback.

Some of the highest-risk assets chalked?up spectacular gains?during the recovery. The J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Currency Index rose 8%, a gain matched in such a short time only once since the index was created in 2000. U.S. junk bonds leaped 8% in price, the biggest jump in the Bank of America Merrill Lynch benchmark over such a short period since the summer of 2009, when the country was just emerging from recession.

U.S. shares didn’t miss out. From its February low, the S&P 500 recorded its biggest gain over an equivalent period since late 2011, rising more than 12% by the middle of last week; it is still up 11%. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Bravo! Zwei IWF-Ökonomen sagen, wie wir überfällige Lohnerhöhungen durchsetzen

Posted by hkarner - 21. März 2016

Naja! (hfk)

21. März 2016 l l Flassbeck Economics

Mit einer Anmerkung von Heiner Flassbeck

Endlich! Zwei Ökonomen des IWF haben begriffen, dass der Weg zum Wirtschaftswachstum letztlich über Lohnerhöhungen führt. Ihr 4-Punkte-Programm ist nicht nur für Japan wegweisend.

Alle reden von Helikoptergeld. Die beiden IMF Ökonomen Luc Everaert und Giovanni Ganelli haben eine viel bessere Idee. In ihrem Paper unter dem Titel „Japan: Time to Load a Fourth Arrow-Wage Increases“ kommen sie gleich zum Kern des Problems: die stagnierenden Löhne. Seit 1995 sind die Löhne für Vollzeitstellen in Japan nur gerade mal um 0,55 Prozent gestiegen! Um diesem Missstand abzuhelfen, schlagen sie vier konkrete Massnahmen vor:

  1. Profitable Unternehmen sollen entweder die Löhne jedes Jahr um mindestens 2 Prozent plus nationale Rate der Produktivitätssteigerung erhöhen. Oder sie müssen erklären, warum sie nicht tun und ihre Lohnpolitik offenlegen. Dieser Offenlegungspflicht lehnt sich an entsprechende Regelungen im Deutschen Corporate Governance Kodex an. Stichwort: Comply or Explain.
  2. Die Regierung soll Massnahmen ergreifen, um Lohnerhöhungen steuerlich zu begünstigen.
  3. Firmen, die steigende Profite nicht an die Arbeitnehmer weiter geben sollten mit Strafsteuern belebt werden.
  4. Der Staat muss mit Lohnerhöhungen voran gehen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Japanese Policy Failure Means Disaster For Us All

Posted by hkarner - 11. März 2016

John Mauldin, March 9, 2016Mauldin Video

This week’s Outside the Box is a little bit different. I’m going to start with a selection from Mohamed El-Erian’s latest note. Mohamed himself is soft-spoken and calm, and I tell you that because the piece that follows is as close to capitals, underlining, and bolding with lots of exclamation points as Mohamed can get. He continues to get more concerned about the direction of central bank policy around the world and its unknown and unintended potential consequences. I will just cut and paste part of Mohamed’s essay into this introduction.

I want to follow up with a presentation by Kevin Wilson at Blue Water Capital on Japan. Basically, this piece illustrates the potential problems created by the current philosophical direction that the Bank of Japan is taking in their country. Essentially, Kevin is talking about the policy failure of Abenomics and the unintended consequences of negative interest rate policies (NIRP). A major economic disruption in Japan would have significant effects on the global economy. His summary sentence?

Given Japan’s massive debt and demographic headwinds, the oncoming recession may trigger an endgame that would involve a possible depression and eventual default and devaluation.

That speculation sounds a lot like what I was writing in Endgame and Code Red. While I see a little bit different outcome than Kevin does (in terms of what a default might look like), I think he has properly highlighted the concerns we should all have.

Now let’s look at Mohammed’s note: Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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G-20 Says Economic Risks Have Risen Globally

Posted by hkarner - 29. Februar 2016

Date: 28-02-2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Finance ministers say all tools are needed to sustain growth, but don’t call for coordinated spending

SHANGHAI—Citing mounting threats to the global economy, world financial chiefs vowed to accelerate long-promised economic overhauls to ease the burden on the easy-money stimulus policies that are fast running out of steam.

Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 largest economies meeting in Shanghai during the weekend sought to allay growing concerns that fissures in the global economy—including the potential for a sharp deceleration in the Chinese economy—could pitch the world back into recession.

“We will use all policy tools—monetary, fiscal and structural” to strengthen growth, boost investment and ensure stability in financial markets, the G-20 said in its official communiqué issued Saturday after two days of intense talks.

Global markets have shuddered in recent months amid a souring growth outlook, overall weak demand and anxieties that China’s economy may be falling faster than Beijing acknowledges and might potentially undermine an increasingly fragile global economy. The International Monetary Fund earlier this week said it likely would downgrade its forecast in coming months, calling for a coordinated program to boost demand. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Central Banking Goes Negative

Posted by hkarner - 19. Februar 2016

Photo of Stephen S. Roach

Stephen S. Roach

Stephen S. Roach, former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm’s chief economist, is a senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a senior lecturer at Yale’s School of Management. He is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.

FEB 18, 2016, Project Syndicate

NEW HAVEN – In what could well be a final act of desperation, central banks are abdicating effective control of the economies they have been entrusted to manage. First came zero interest rates, then quantitative easing, and now negative interest rates – one futile attempt begetting another. Just as the first two gambits failed to gain meaningful economic traction in chronically weak recoveries, the shift to negative rates will only compound the risks of financial instability and set the stage for the next crisis.

The adoption of negative interest rates – initially launched in Europe in 2014 and now embraced in Japan – represents a major turning point for central banking. Previously, emphasis had been placed on boosting aggregate demand – primarily by lowering the cost of borrowing, but also by spurring wealth effects from appreciating financial assets. But now, by imposing penalties on excess reserves left on deposit with central banks, negative interest rates drive stimulus through the supply side of the credit equation – in effect, urging banks to make new loans regardless of the demand for such funds. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why investors buy bonds with negative yields

Posted by hkarner - 11. Februar 2016

Date: 10-02-2016
Source: The Economist

JAPANESE ten-year bonds have joined the long list of government securities with a negative yield, offering minus 0.04% a year. In practice, that means investors who buy the bond now, and hold it until maturity, will have less money than they started with. Bloomberg estimates that nearly 30% of the global government bond market is trading on a negative yield; there are even some corporate bonds in the same position.

So why on earth should investors sign up to lose money? There are three main groups of bond buyers. The first is those investors who have to own government bonds, regardless of the financial return on offer. This category includes central banks, which hold bonds as part of their foreign exchange reserves; insurance companies, which need to hold bonds as part of their reserves; pension funds, which own bonds to match their liabilities; and banks, which need government bonds to meet liquidity requirements and also to pledge as collateral when they borrow in the money markets. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Euro Is Now Back Where It Was Before QE Began

Posted by hkarner - 10. Februar 2016

Date: 09-02-2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal

When the European Central Bank announced its quantitative easing scheme last January, the euro plummeted to its lowest level in 13 years.

One year on, the euro is back where it started, raising more questions about the effectiveness of central bank action in the current climate.

On a trade weighted basis the euro is now once again more valuable than it was on the day for the ECB’s bond-buying program was laid out.

The trade-weighted measure compares the euro’s value to a basket of other currencies.

While the ECB has no official target for the euro’s exchange rates, a strengthening currency is bad news for a bank that believes that wants to increase inflation. A strong euro also makes European goods less competitive in global markets.

The ECB is not the only central bank struggling to convince markets. The Bank of Japan is likewise finding it harder to lower the value of the yen through monetary easing. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Endzeitstimmung an den Börsen – globaler Bankencrash nicht ausgeschlossen

Posted by hkarner - 9. Februar 2016

09. Februar 2016 l l FlassbeckWas derzeit an den Börsen passiert, könnte man eine normale Korrektur nennen. Nach einer durch nichts gerechtfertigten Blase seit 2012 – die Börsen hatten sich völlig losgelöst von der Realwirtschaft nach oben bewegt – entweicht jetzt wie so oft mit großem Zischen die heiße Luft.

Wie dramatisch die globale Lage in der Realwirtschaft ist, zeigt sich aber unter anderem daran, dass gestern in Tokio zehnjährige japanische Staatsanleihen zum ersten Mal eine negative Rendite aufwiesen. Wenn das kein Signal an die Finanzpolitiker dieser Welt ist, dann gibt es keines mehr. Wer jetzt noch spart oder auch nur über Sparen redet, ist ein Narr. Und es werden diese Narren sein, die man verantwortlich machen muss für die Katastrophe, auf die die globale Wirtschaft zu schlittert.

Was zudem sehr nachdenklich stimmen sollte, ist die Tatsache, dass es weltweit vor allem Bankaktien sind, die diese Spirale nach unten anführen. Wir hatten ja schon vor einigen Wochen davor gewarnt (hier), dass das Geschäftsmodell der Deutschen Bank nicht haltbar ist (deren Kurs weltweit zu den größten Verlierern bei Bankaktien zählt und sich seit vergangenen September mehr als halbiert hat), es zeigt sich jetzt aber, dass nach der großen Finanzkrise von 2008/2009 die Reregulierungen bei weitem nicht hart genug waren. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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