Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Japan’

Central Banking Goes Negative

Posted by hkarner - 19. Februar 2016

Photo of Stephen S. Roach

Stephen S. Roach

Stephen S. Roach, former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm’s chief economist, is a senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a senior lecturer at Yale’s School of Management. He is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.

FEB 18, 2016, Project Syndicate

NEW HAVEN – In what could well be a final act of desperation, central banks are abdicating effective control of the economies they have been entrusted to manage. First came zero interest rates, then quantitative easing, and now negative interest rates – one futile attempt begetting another. Just as the first two gambits failed to gain meaningful economic traction in chronically weak recoveries, the shift to negative rates will only compound the risks of financial instability and set the stage for the next crisis.

The adoption of negative interest rates – initially launched in Europe in 2014 and now embraced in Japan – represents a major turning point for central banking. Previously, emphasis had been placed on boosting aggregate demand – primarily by lowering the cost of borrowing, but also by spurring wealth effects from appreciating financial assets. But now, by imposing penalties on excess reserves left on deposit with central banks, negative interest rates drive stimulus through the supply side of the credit equation – in effect, urging banks to make new loans regardless of the demand for such funds. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why investors buy bonds with negative yields

Posted by hkarner - 11. Februar 2016

Date: 10-02-2016
Source: The Economist

JAPANESE ten-year bonds have joined the long list of government securities with a negative yield, offering minus 0.04% a year. In practice, that means investors who buy the bond now, and hold it until maturity, will have less money than they started with. Bloomberg estimates that nearly 30% of the global government bond market is trading on a negative yield; there are even some corporate bonds in the same position.

So why on earth should investors sign up to lose money? There are three main groups of bond buyers. The first is those investors who have to own government bonds, regardless of the financial return on offer. This category includes central banks, which hold bonds as part of their foreign exchange reserves; insurance companies, which need to hold bonds as part of their reserves; pension funds, which own bonds to match their liabilities; and banks, which need government bonds to meet liquidity requirements and also to pledge as collateral when they borrow in the money markets. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Euro Is Now Back Where It Was Before QE Began

Posted by hkarner - 10. Februar 2016

Date: 09-02-2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal

When the European Central Bank announced its quantitative easing scheme last January, the euro plummeted to its lowest level in 13 years.

One year on, the euro is back where it started, raising more questions about the effectiveness of central bank action in the current climate.

On a trade weighted basis the euro is now once again more valuable than it was on the day for the ECB’s bond-buying program was laid out.

The trade-weighted measure compares the euro’s value to a basket of other currencies.

While the ECB has no official target for the euro’s exchange rates, a strengthening currency is bad news for a bank that believes that wants to increase inflation. A strong euro also makes European goods less competitive in global markets.

The ECB is not the only central bank struggling to convince markets. The Bank of Japan is likewise finding it harder to lower the value of the yen through monetary easing. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Endzeitstimmung an den Börsen – globaler Bankencrash nicht ausgeschlossen

Posted by hkarner - 9. Februar 2016

09. Februar 2016 l l FlassbeckWas derzeit an den Börsen passiert, könnte man eine normale Korrektur nennen. Nach einer durch nichts gerechtfertigten Blase seit 2012 – die Börsen hatten sich völlig losgelöst von der Realwirtschaft nach oben bewegt – entweicht jetzt wie so oft mit großem Zischen die heiße Luft.

Wie dramatisch die globale Lage in der Realwirtschaft ist, zeigt sich aber unter anderem daran, dass gestern in Tokio zehnjährige japanische Staatsanleihen zum ersten Mal eine negative Rendite aufwiesen. Wenn das kein Signal an die Finanzpolitiker dieser Welt ist, dann gibt es keines mehr. Wer jetzt noch spart oder auch nur über Sparen redet, ist ein Narr. Und es werden diese Narren sein, die man verantwortlich machen muss für die Katastrophe, auf die die globale Wirtschaft zu schlittert.

Was zudem sehr nachdenklich stimmen sollte, ist die Tatsache, dass es weltweit vor allem Bankaktien sind, die diese Spirale nach unten anführen. Wir hatten ja schon vor einigen Wochen davor gewarnt (hier), dass das Geschäftsmodell der Deutschen Bank nicht haltbar ist (deren Kurs weltweit zu den größten Verlierern bei Bankaktien zählt und sich seit vergangenen September mehr als halbiert hat), es zeigt sich jetzt aber, dass nach der großen Finanzkrise von 2008/2009 die Reregulierungen bei weitem nicht hart genug waren. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Japan’s Wrong Way Out

Posted by hkarner - 6. Februar 2016

Photo of Adair Turner

Adair Turner

Adair Turner, a former chairman of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services Authority and former member of the UK’s Financial Policy Committee, is Chairman of the Institute for New Economic Thinking. His latest book is Between Debt and the Devil.

FEB 5, 2016, Project Syndicate

LONDON – Financial markets were surprised by the Bank of Japan’s recent introduction of negative interest rates on some commercial bank reserves. They shouldn’t have been. The BOJ clearly needed to take some new policy action to achieve its target of 2% inflation. But neither negative interest rates nor further expansion of the BOJ’s already huge program of quantitative easing (QE) will be sufficient to offset the strong deflationary forces that Japan now faces.

In 2013 the BOJ predicted that its QE operations would deliver 2% inflation within two years. But in 2015, core inflation (excluding volatile items such as food) was only 0.5%. With consumer spending and average earnings falling in December, the 2% target increasingly looks out of reach. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Productivity trends in Asia after the Global Crisis

Posted by hkarner - 19. Dezember 2015

Koji Nomura 18 December 2015, voxeu

Associate Professor, Keio University; Faculty Fellow, RIET

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Deflation Risks May Warrant Radical New Central-Bank Thinking, the IMF’s Chief Economist Says

Posted by hkarner - 10. November 2015

The Bank of Japan and other central banks around the world may need to try radical new easy-money policies to stave off the rising specter of deflation and revive sickly economic prospects, the International Monetary Fund’s new chief economist warns.

Obstfeld“I worry about deflation globally,” new IMF Economic Counselor Maurice Obstfeld said in an interview ahead of an annual IMF research conference that focuses this year on unconventional monetary policies and exchange rate regimes. “It may be time to start thinking outside the box.”

Weak—and in some cases falling—price growth has plagued Japan, Europe, the U.S. and other major economies since the financial crisis. Plummeting commodity prices are exacerbating the so-called “lowflation” and deflation problems that curb investment, spending and growth.

Surveying several dozen of the largest economies around the world, Mr. Obstfeld said the number of countries experiencing low inflation is rising. Combined with slowing emerging market output, ballooning government debt and monetary policy constrained by the lower limits of interest rates, the deflation risk is fueling fears the global economy could be fast stuck into a deep low-growth mire. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Fate of Abe’s Japan

Posted by hkarner - 3. November 2015

Photo of Joseph S. Nye

Joseph S. Nye

Joseph S. Nye, Jr., a former US assistant secretary of defense and chairman of the US National Intelligence Council, is University Professor at Harvard University and a member of the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on the Future of Government. He is the author, most recently, of  Is the American Century Over?

NOV 2, 2015, Project Syndicate

TOKYO – As Shinzo Abe sits down this week in Seoul with South Korean President Park Geun-hye and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, he does so as the leader of a country that many people around the world now seriously underestimate. That dynamic certainly will be felt during the three Northeast Asian powers’ first summit since 2012.

Three decades ago, many erred in the opposite direction in their assessments of Japan. Many Americans feared being overtaken after Japanese per capita income surpassed that of the United States; Japanese manufacturing set the international standard; and some books even predicted an eventual war with a Japanese nuclear superpower. Such views extrapolated from Japan’s impressive postwar economic growth; today, after more than two decades of malaise, they simply remind us of the danger of linear projections. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Österreichs Banken – Strukturwandel überfällig

Posted by hkarner - 2. November 2015

Was ich nicht verstehe:

  1. dass sich „Spitzen“-Berater der BCG erfrechen, so einen trivialen Bericht zu verfassen
  2. alle Kennzahlen sind aus den jährlichen ATKearney Studien ersichtlich (nicht von BCG)
  3. der geneigte Leser dieses Weblogs hat dies schon 100 mal gelesen
  4. dass die Presse solche Trivialia abdruckt
  5. dass sich jemand, der so viele Butter am Kopf hat wie die BCG bei Banken in Österreich (riesiges Beratungsmandat von der ÖVAG unter Pinkl zur Strategie und Expansion), noch traut aufzufallen.

30.10.2015 | 18:40 | Christian Krammer und Holger Sachse (Die Presse)

Die österreichischen Banken müssen ihre Hausaufgaben machen, sonst verlieren sie den Anschluss an Westeuropa.

Wenn Österreicher im Ausland unterwegs sind, kann es sein, dass sie eine gewisse Leere verspüren – eine Leere an Bankfilialen. Denn so viele Filialen wie zu Hause werden sie in kaum einem anderen Land Europas finden. Österreich hat die zweithöchste Filialdichte des Kontinents; auf eine Million Einwohner kommen 511 Filialen. Doch was nach Luxus für die heimischen Bankkunden klingt, ist in Wahrheit eine der wesentlichen Belastungen für die Branche.

Österreichs Banken müssen handeln. Sonst verlieren sie weiter an Wettbewerbsfähigkeit in Europa. Ihre durchschnittliche Eigenkapitalrendite lag in den vergangenen fünf Jahren bei 0,1 Prozent – und damit am unteren Ende in der Eurozone. Lediglich Italien, Spanien und Portugal schneiden noch schlechter ab. Nullrenditen sind aber hochgefährlich, denn Banken können so ihre Kapitalkosten nicht mehr verdienen. Gleichzeitig werden die Rahmenbedingungen immer schwieriger.

Bei der absoluten Höhe der Bankenabgabe nimmt Österreich in Europa einen Spitzenplatz ein – so hoch wie in Deutschland, dessen Markt allerdings acht- bis neunmal so groß ist. Hinzu kommen die höheren Refinanzierungskosten durch die Restrukturierungen von Hypo Alpe Adria und Heta sowie die Niedrigzinspolitik der EZB, die den Margendruck verschärft. Nicht zuletzt belasten heute die Folgen des jahrelang boomenden Osteuropageschäfts. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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