US: The broad characteristics of the investment climate are unlikely to change very much in the first part of next year. The largest policy change is the beginning of the long awaited slowing of the Federal Reserve’s long-term asset purchases. The process will likely be gradual and may take the better part of 2014 to come to a complete stop. The drag from fiscal policy will likely lessen. The roughly 1.7% annual growth in employment since 2009 is set to continue and underpin a continued expansion of the world’s largest economy.
Mit ‘Japan’ getaggte Beiträge
Geschrieben von hkarner - 1. Januar 2014
Geschrieben von hkarner - 27. Dezember 2013
26.12.2013 | 18:23 | JOSEF URSCHITZ (Die Presse)
Das Beispiel Japans zeigt: Geld drucken und Schulden machen allein sind keine tauglichen Instrumente gegen eine Krise. Ohne Reformen läuft nichts.
Als Shinzo Abe vor einem Jahr versprach, Japan mithilfe seiner Abenomics aus der lähmenden Deflationsspirale zu führen, hatte sich das „verlorene Jahrzehnt“ für den Inselstaat schon beinahe zum „verlorenen Vierteljahrhundert“ ausgewachsen: Seit dem Platzen einer gigantischen Immobilien- und Aktienblase zu Beginn der Neunzigerjahre ist die Wirtschaft des Landes nicht mehr in die Gänge gekommen, regelmäßige Startversuche durch staatliche Ankurbelungsprogramme haben die dritttgrößte Volkswirtschaft dieses Planeten zum mit Abstand höchstverschuldeten Industrieland gemacht – weit vor Griechenland.
Mit Abenomics sollte sich das ändern, wenngleich die Rezepte eher altbekannt als revolutionär wirkten: Forciertes Gelddrucken sollte ein bisschen Inflation erzeugen, staatliche Multimilliarden-Investionsprogramme sollten der Wirtschaft den entscheidenden Kick für den folgenden Selbstaufschwung verpassen, und mit umfassenden Strukturreformen sollte das Ganze abgesichert werden. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Geschrieben von hkarner - 17. Dezember 2013
Here is this week’s letter, which will give you a head’s-up on a brewing banking crisis in Europe.
This week, Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom in the Netherlands and Marine Le Pen of the Front National (FN) of France held a press conference in The Hague to announce that they will be cooperating in the elections for the European Parliament next spring and hope to form a new eurosceptic bloc. Their aim, as Mr. Wilders put it, is to “fight this monster called Europe,” while Ms. Le Pen spoke of a system that “has enslaved our various peoples.” They want to end the common currency, remove the authority of Brussels over national budgets, and undo the project of integration driven with so much idealism by two generations of European politicians. (My thought about Marine Le Pen after looking at her policies is that if Marine Le Pen is the answer for France, they are asking the wrong question.)
For now, Le Pen and Wilders are in a decided, if growing, minority (think Beppe Grillo, who got 25% in Italy in the last election). But as the graphic below suggests, the stitching that is holding the Frankenstein of Europe together seems to be getting a little frayed. And my new worry is that the real monster, one likely to pop many more of the tenuous stitches that hold things together, could be lurking in German banks. This week’s letter explores a problem as “hidden” as subprime was back in 2006. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Geschrieben von hkarner - 30. November 2013
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Money Managers Expect Bank of Japan to Ease Policy, Fed to Scale Back Stimulus
Investors are piling into bets against the yen, taking another run at a trade that proved lucrative for some of the industry’s biggest money managers earlier this year.
Wagers that the Japanese currency will slide against the U.S. dollar have surged to the highest amount this year and are within striking distance of levels not seen since 2007, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which tracks positions of some hedge funds and other speculators.
The bets are already paying off, with the yen slumping to its lowest in six months against the dollar this week, and falling almost 4% this month. It echoes a slide one year ago when the yen tumbled 22% from late October 2012 to the end of April, which resulted in big payoffs for high-profile investors including George Soros.
Those betting against the yen are anticipating that the U.S. Federal Reserve will soon reduce its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program, helping bolster the dollar against major currencies. The yen may suffer in particular, they believe, because the Bank of Japan will also be forced to step up efforts to stimulate its economy, putting pressure on its currency.
Paul Lambert, head of currencies at Insight Investment in London, which manages around $435 billion of assets, said he has held an underweight position in the yen relative to his benchmark for most of this year, and added to that negative bet on the yen this month. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Geschrieben von hkarner - 26. November 2013
Things that make you go hmmm… 25/11 Grant Williams
Japan is one of the most heavily indebted developed countries. Its total debt to GDP
is over 500%, compared to the US’s 370%. Japanese gross sovereign debt is around 240% of GDP, while its net debt is around 135%, substantially higher than most developed
countries. The government borrows to finance over 50% of its spending.
Then there’s that magic number that Japan breached this past summer when its public debt hit
That number, hard to picture, looks like this:
Or, as I pointed out in a recent presentation, if you wanted to count to a quadrillion … it would
take you 31,709,792 years.
That’s a hell of an IOU to run up.
So the reason why Abe desperately needs inflation is clear; but let’s face it, 2% ain’t gonna do the trick. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Geschrieben von hkarner - 8. November 2013
Source: The Economist
In both America and Europe central bankers should be pushing prices upwards
WHAT is a central banker’s main job? Ask the man on the street and the chances are he will say something like “keeping a lid on inflation”. In popular perception, and in their own minds, central bankers are the technicians who squeezed high inflation out of the rich world’s economies in the 1980s; whose credibility is based on keeping it down; and who must therefore always be on guard lest prices start to soar. Yet this view is dangerously outdated. The biggest problem facing the rich world’s central banks today is that inflation is too low.
The average inflation rate in the mostly rich-world OECD is 1.5%, down from 2.2% in 2012 and well below central banks’ official targets (typically 2% or just under). The drop is most perilous in the euro area: annual consumer-price inflation was only 0.7% in October, down from 2.5% a year ago. That is partly because commodity prices have been falling, but even if you strip out volatile food and fuel prices, the euro zone’s underlying or “core” inflation is 0.8%, as low as it has ever been since the single currency began. In America the headline rate in September was 1.2%, down from 2% in July—and the core rate, as defined by the Federal Reserve, has stubbornly stayed at 1.2%, close to its low point. There were inklings this week that some at the Fed want even looser monetary policy. True, things are improving in Japan, which seems finally to have escaped 15 years of falling prices, but even there underlying inflation is still only zero. The only big, rich economy where prices are rising at a clip is Britain, where overall inflation is 2.7%. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Geschrieben von hkarner - 10. Oktober 2013
Posted on October 9, 2013 by iMFdirect
Five years into the crisis, the fiscal landscape remains challenging. On the positive side, deficit-cutting efforts and the first signs of recovery reduced the fiscal stress felt in many advanced economies; but debt ratios often remain at historical peaks. At the same time, slowing growth and rising borrowing costs, combined with unabated demands for improved public services, puts pressure on government budgets in emerging market economies.
So we created an index of ‘fiscal difficulty’ that shows the biggest challenge ahead for advanced economies is to maintain budget surpluses until debt ratios return to lower levels. We expect this will take several years.
Advanced economies: not yet at the goal line
With the average deficit now lower by more than 4 percentage points of GDP compared to the height of the crisis, most advanced economies are well on their way to meeting their medium-term fiscal objectives of bringing their public debt ratio down to more comfortable levels. The IMF’s Fiscal Monitor estimates that those that need to make the most progress on deficit reduction are almost two-thirds of the way there—with the exception of Japan.
This does not mean that the last mile will be the easiest. To understand how difficult the remaining effort could be, we drew from past experiences with fiscal consolidation and constructed an index that measures “fiscal difficulty.” The index can be used to gauge the relative difficulty for countries under various fiscal adjustment scenarios. We looked at two things:
- the difficulty in reaching a given primary surplus over a given period of time (this is illustrated on the vertical axis of the chart below), and
- the difficulty in maintaining that surplus for another given period of time (the horizontal axis of the chart). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Geschrieben von hkarner - 10. Oktober 2013
Posted on October 9, 2013 by iMFdirect
By José Viñals
The global financial system faces several major transitions along the road to greater financial stability. These transitions will be challenging because they are accompanied by substantial risks.
So what are these transitions?
- The first one is the transition in the United States from a prolonged period of monetary accommodation towards a normalization of monetary conditions. Will this transition be smooth or bumpy?
- Second, emerging markets face a transition to more volatile external conditions and higher risk premiums. What needs to be done to keep emerging markets resilient?
- Third, the euro area is moving to a stronger union and stronger financial systems. This report focuses on the close links between the corporate and banking sectors. What are the implications of the corporate debt overhang for bank health?
- Fourth, Japan is moving towards the new policy regime of Abenomics. The stakes are high. Will Japan’s policies be comprehensive enough to ensure stability?
- And finally, there is the global transition to a safer financial system, where much remains to be done. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Geschrieben von hkarner - 1. Oktober 2013
30.09.2013, 15:49 Uhr, Handelsblatt.com
Der Internationale Währungsfonds prognostiziert einen enormen Anstieg von Japans Staatsverschuldung. „Es wird zu einer Finanzkrise kommen“, meint Experte Takeshi Fujimaki, ein ehemaliger Mitarbeiter von George Soros.
„Ich habe mich dazu entschlossen, Politiker zu werden, denn ich denke, es wird früher oder später zu einer Finanzkrise kommen“, erklärte Fujimaki letzte Woche im Interview mit Bloomberg News. „Die Gesamtverschuldung wird weiter steigen. Ich denke nicht, dass Japan bis 2020 überleben kann.”
Die Rendite der japanischen Staatsanleihen mit zehn Jahren Laufzeit wird seiner Einschätzung nach auf 70 Prozent in die Höhe schießen - basierend auf der Entwicklung in Russland, als das Land im Jahr 1998 Anleihen nicht mehr bediente. Die Rendite der japanischen Benchmark-Anleihe ist derzeit mit 0,68 Prozent die niedrigste der Welt, und die Kosten zur Absicherung gegen einen Zahlungsausfall liegen nahe einem Viermonatstief bei 62 Basispunkten. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Geschrieben von hkarner - 6. September 2013
Source: Project Syndicate, Adair Turner
LONDON – Five years after the collapse of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers, the world has still not addressed the fundamental cause of the subsequent financial crisis – an excess of debt. And that is why economic recovery has progressed much more slowly than anyone expected (in some countries, it has not come at all).
Most economists, central bankers, and regulators not only failed to foresee the crisis, but also believed that financial stability was assured so long as inflation was low and stable. And, once the immediate crisis had been contained, we failed to foresee how painful its consequences would be.
Official forecasts in the spring of 2009 anticipated neither a slow recovery nor that the initial crisis, which was essentially confined to the United States and the United Kingdom, would soon fuel a knock-on crisis in the eurozone. And market forces did not come close to predicting near-zero interest rates for five years (and counting).
One reason for this lack of foresight was uncritical admiration of financial innovation; another was the inherently flawed structure of the eurozone. But the fundamental reason was the failure to understand that high debt burdens, relentlessly rising for several decades – in the private sector even more than in the public sector – were a major threat to economic stability. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »