Kolumne Weil Nullzinsen und Gelddrucken weitgehend wirkungslos blieben, probiert Japan jetzt die totale staatliche Manipulation des Zinsmarktes. Ein ziemlich gefährliches Experiment.
Dass die Verschuldung der Industriestaaten auf konventionelle Weise – etwa durch bloßes ausgabenseitiges Sparen – nicht mehr einzufangen ist, gilt unterdessen als gesichert. Dass Staaten zum Zweck des Schuldenabbaus immer stärker auf die Vermögen ihrer Staatsbürger schielen, auch. Was sich ändert, sind die angedachten beziehungsweise angewandten Methoden.
• Begonnen hat es vor ungefähr fünf Jahren mit dem Vorschlag des Internationalen Währungsfonds und des globalen Beratungskonzerns Boston Consulting, die entgleisten Schuldenstände der Industriestaaten mittels einer allgemeinen Vermögensabgabe wieder auf ein tragfähiges Niveau (also ungefähr 60 Prozent des BIPs) zu drücken. Diese Vermögensabgabe hätte beim damaligen Schuldenstand ungefähr 30 Prozent der angehäuften Finanz-, Immobilien- und sonstigen Vermögen ausmachen müssen. Jetzt wäre es natürlich schon deutlich mehr. Eine bestechend einfache (und nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg in einigen Ländern auch praktizierte) Methode, die in Demokratien in Friedenszeiten aber einen entscheidenden Haken hat: Sie führt wahrscheinlich zum sofortigen Sturz der Regierung. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Joseph E. Stiglitz, recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2001 and the John Bates Clark Medal in 1979, is University Professor at Columbia University, Co-Chair of the High-Level Expert Group on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress at the OECD, and Chief Economist of the Roosevelt Institute. A former senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank and chair of the US president’s Council of Economic Advisers under Bill Clinton, in 2000 he founded the Initiative for Policy Dialogue, a think tank on international development based at Columbia University. His most recent book is The Euro: How a Common Currency Threatens the Future of Europe.
SEP 14, 2016, Project Syndicate
NEW YORK – It’s been a quarter-century since Japan’s asset bubble burst – and a quarter-century of malaise as one “lost decade” has followed another.Some of the criticism of its economic policies is unwarranted. Growth is not an objective in itself; we should be concerned with standards of living. Japan is ahead of the curve in curbing population growth, and productivity has been increasing. Growth in output per working-age person, especially since 2008, has been higher than in the United States, and much higher than in Europe.
Still, the Japanese believe they can do better. I agree. Japan has problems on both the supply and the demand side, and in both the real economy and finance. To address them, it needs an economic program that is more likely to work than the measures policymakers have recently adopted, which have failed to achieve their inflation target, restore confidence, or boost growth to the level desired.Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Britain is likely to scrape by without any economic contraction this quarter and seems almost certain to avoid a recession this year. Few could have hoped that the immediate Brexit squall would blow over so quickly.
The record one-month jump in services activity in August clinches a spate of remarkably resilient figures, more or less neutralizing the cascade of crashing indexes in July.
Markit’s combined gauge of services and manufacturing is back up to 53.6. This is higher than it was before the referendum vote, and higher than it is currently in the eurozone, where Schadenfreude has proved short-lived. It is no longer implausible to suggest that the UK economy might outperform the eurozone this quarter, and nor should this be a great surprise.
The 12pc drop in sterling against the euro – compared to its trading range earlier this year – is a macro-economic stimulus for Britain.It is a form of macro-economic tightening for the eurozone, creating an extra headwind as it struggles to break out of a deflation trap. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
What Japan’s economic experiment can teach the rest of the world
IN THE 1980s Japan was a closely studied example of economic dynamism. In the decades since, it has commanded attention largely for its economic stagnation. After years of falling prices and fitful growth, Japan’s nominal GDP was roughly the same in 2015 as it was 20 years earlier. America’s grew by 134% in the same time period; even Italy’s went up by two-thirds. Now Japan is in the spotlight for a different reason: its attempts at economic resuscitation.
To reflate Japan and reform it, Shinzo Abe, prime minister since December 2012, proposed the three “arrows” of what has become known as Abenomics: monetary stimulus, fiscal “flexibility” and structural reform. The first arrow would mobilise Japan’s productive powers and the third would expand them, allowing the second arrow to hit an ambitious fiscal target. The prevailing view is that none has hit home. Headline inflation was negative in the year to May. Japan’s public debt looks as bad as ever. In areas such as labour-market reform, nowhere near enough has been done. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Anders als die deutsche, hat die japanische Regierung unter Premierminister Shinzo Abe begriffen, dass es keinen Wohlstand ohne öffentliche Investitionen gibt. Noch erstaunlicher: Man begreift auch, dass die Investitionen des Staates nicht vom absoluten Stand der staatlichen Schulden abhängig gemacht werden dürfen. Woher kommt die kollektive Begriffsstutzigkeit in Deutschland und Europa?
Der japanische Premierminister Shinzo Abe ist seit Beginn seiner Amtszeit dadurch aufgefallen, dass er sich nicht scheute, herrschende ökonomische Dogmen über den Haufen zu werfen (wir haben das unter anderem hier ausführlich erläutert). Man hat folglich eine ganze volkswirtschaftliche Ausrichtung nach ihm benannt: Abenomics. Das war im Prinzip ein sehr erfolgversprechender Ansatz, aber auch er ist letztlich nicht erfolgreich gewesen, weil es Shinzo Abe nicht gelungen ist, die Lohndeflation in seinem Land zu durchbrechen.
Nun schickt sich Herr Abe erneut an, der Welt zu zeigen, dass sein Land nicht wie Europa darauf warten wird bis ein Aufschwung vom Himmel fällt, sondern dass der Staat auch dann agieren kann, wenn der Schuldenstand so hoch ist wie derzeit in Japan, nämlich etwa 250 Prozent des BIP. Man bedenke: In Europa werden Länder offiziell dafür bestraft, dass sie in einer tiefen Rezession bei wesentlich höherer Arbeitslosigkeit als in Japan nicht mit Gewalt versuchen, den Schuldenstand auf 60 Prozent des BIP zu bringen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
The great fiscal fair of 2016 has begun. The world’s governments are seizing on the flimsy excuse of Brexit to prime pump their economies, hoping to stretch the ageing global cycle for a little longer.
Japan’s Shinzo Abe has kicked off the first round with a „shock and awe“ fiscal package ostensibly worth $270bn, though the South Koreans nipped ahead of him with a $17bn raft of measures.
Britain cannot be far behind as Philip Hammond prepares his first post-austerity Budget this autumn, while France’s Francois Hollande and Italy’s Matteo Renzi have seized on Brexit to run a coach and horses through the eurozone’s fiscal rules. Brexit is manna from heaven.
Brussels hardly dares to raise a squeak, knowing that revolutionaries – the Front National and Beppe Grillo’s Five Star movement – are knocking at the doors of power. Fiscal austerity is over in Europe. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted on July 25, 2016 by Ellen Brown, Web of Debt Blog
Fifteen years after embarking on its largely ineffective quantitative easing program, Japan appears poised to try the form recommended by Ben Bernanke in his notorious “helicopter money” speech in 2002. The Japanese test case could finally resolve a longstanding dispute between monetarists and money reformers over the economic effects of government-issued money.
When then-Fed Governor Ben Bernanke gave his famous helicopter money speech to the Japanese in 2002, he was talking about something quite different from the quantitative easing they actually got and other central banks later mimicked. Quoting Milton Friedman, he said the government could reverse a deflation simply by printing money and dropping it from helicopters. A gift of free money with no strings attached, it would find its way into the real economy and trigger the demand needed to power productivity and employment.
What the world got instead was a form of QE in which new money is swapped for assets in the reserve accounts of banks, leaving liquidity trapped on bank balance sheets. Whether manipulating bank reserves can affect the circulating money supply at all is controversial. But if it can, it is only by triggering new borrowing. And today, according to Richard Koo, chief economist at the Nomura Research Institute, individuals and businesses are paying down debt rather than taking out new loans.They are doing this although credit is very “accommodative” (cheap), because they need to rectify their debt-ridden balance sheets in order to stay afloat. Koo calls it a “balance sheet recession.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Source: The Economist
Subject: The impact on jobs: Automation and anxiety
SITTING IN AN office in San Francisco, Igor Barani calls up some medical scans on his screen. He is the chief executive of Enlitic, one of a host of startups applying deep learning to medicine, starting with the analysis of images such as X-rays and CT scans. It is an obvious use of the technology. Deep learning is renowned for its superhuman prowess at certain forms of image recognition; there are large sets of labelled training data to crunch; and there is tremendous potential to make health care more accurate and efficient.
Dr Barani points to some CT scans of a patient’s lungs, taken from three different angles. Red blobs flicker on the screen as Enlitic’s deep-learning system examines and compares them to see if they are blood vessels, harmless imaging artefacts or malignant lung nodules. The system ends up highlighting a particular feature for further investigation. In a test against three expert human radiologists working together, Enlitic’s system was 50% better at classifying malignant tumoursand had a false-negative rate (where a cancer is missed) of zero, compared with 7% for the humans. Another of Enlitic’s systems, which examines X-rays to detect wrist fractures, also handily outperformed human experts. The firm’s technology is currently being tested in 40 clinics across Australia. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
If boats were on land, churches on sea
If ponies rode men and if grass ate the cows
And cats should be chased into holes by the mouse
If the mamas sold their babies
To the Gypsies for half a crown
If summer were spring
And the other way ‘round
Then all the world would be upside down!
– 17th century English children’s song
“There are decades when nothing happens, and there are weeks when decades happen.”
– Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov, alias Lenin
“For someone will say, ‘His [Paul’s] letters are severe and forceful, but his bodily presence is weak, and his speech contemptible.’”
Adair Turner, a former chairman of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services Authority and former member of the UK’s Financial Policy Committee, is Chairman of the Institute for New Economic Thinking. His latest book is Between Debt and the Devil.
JUN 10, 2016, Project Syndicate
SINGAPORE – At the end of 2015, Greece’s public debt was 176% of GDP, while Japan’s debt ratio was 248%. Neither government will ever repay all they owe. Write-offs and monetization are inevitable, putting both countries in a sort of global vanguard. With total public and private debt worldwide at 215% of world GDP and rising, the tools on which Greece and Japan depend will almost certainly be applied elsewhere as well.
Since 2010, official discussion of Greek debt has moved fitfully from fantasy to gradually dawning reality. The rescue program for Greece launched that year assumed that a falling debt ratio could be achieved without any private debt write-offs. After a huge restructuring of privately held debt in 2011, the ratio was forecast to reach 124% by 2020, a target the International Monetary Fund believed could be achieved, “but not with high probability.” Today, the IMF believes that a debt ratio of 173% is possible by 2020, but only if Greece’s official European creditors grant significant further debt relief. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »