Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Japan’

The three Rs behind global banks’ recovery

Posted by hkarner - 8. Januar 2017

Date: 05-01-2017
Source: The Economist: Schumpeter

Soaring share prices suggest the end of the tunnel for big banks

IN THE Bible, seven years of feast were followed by seven years of famine. For banks there have been ten lean years. Subprime-loan defaults started to rise in February 2007, causing a near-collapse of the industry in America and Europe. Next came bail-outs from governments, then years of grovelling before regulators, mass firings of staff and quarter after quarter of poor results that left banks’ shareholders disappointed. Now, a decade later, the moneylenders are quietly wondering if 2017 is the year in which their industry turns a corner.

Over the past six months the FTSE index of global bank shares has leapt by 24%. American banks have led the way, with the value of Bank of America rising by 67%, and that of JPMorgan Chase by 39%. In Europe BNP Paribas’ market value has risen by 52%. In Japan shares in the lumbering Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group—the rich world’s biggest bank by assets—have behaved like those of a frisky internet startup; they are up by 57%. Predictions about global banks’ future returns on equity have stopped falling, note analysts at UBS, a Swiss bank. Some of the biggest casualties of the financial crisis are even expanding. On December 20th Lloyds, bailed out by British taxpayers in 2009 at a cost of $33bn, said it would buy MBNA, a credit-card firm, for $2bn. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The International Barriers to Trump’s Economic Plan

Posted by hkarner - 19. Dezember 2016

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Japan’s Great Recession: Lessons for Today’s Global Crisis

Posted by hkarner - 31. Oktober 2016

By on October 27, 2016  RGE EconoMonitor

The Land of the Rising Sun emerged from the prolonged stagnation of the 1990s by carrying out various initiatives such as deregulation, privatisation and fiscal consolidation; these methods remain relevant today for many developed and developing countries.

For some developed countries, the crisis that began in 2008 was far from being the first over the past quarter century. Japan is an example of this. After experiencing rapid post-war expansion and becoming the world’s second largest economy in the mid-1970s, the Land of the Rising Sun entered a period of sluggish economic growth at the beginning of the 1990s. If, from 1981 to 1990, the average annual rate of growth of Japan’s economy was 3.95%, then from 1991 to 2000, it amounted to only 1.19%.

IndexBox analysts can confirm that one of the key features of the crisis was that it was accompanied by price deflation on both commodities and financial assets. From 1990 to 2002, the total net worth of Japanese households fell by 6.7%, to 2.6 trillion yen, while the overall value of land plots decreased by 40%, to 888 billion yen. This land depreciation forced people to postpone their decisions regarding the acquisition of a home or property; this had a dampening effect on the construction sector, which had been the main driver of investment demand pre-crisis. Poor consumer activity was also reflected in the rates of growth of the GDP, and in the price trends and patterns for goods and services: from 1995 to 2010, not a single year was recorded with a positive GDP deflator; 1996 was the only exception to this, when inflation was marked at 0.6%. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Secret Success of Abenomics

Posted by hkarner - 27. Oktober 2016

Photo of Koichi Hamada

Koichi Hamada

Koichi Hamada, Special Economic Adviser to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is Professor Emeritus of Economics at Yale University and at the University of Tokyo. 

OCT 26, 2016 Project Syndicate

TOKYO – Tokyo is in the midst of a construction boom, with old high-rise office and apartment buildings being rebuilt in more modern and elegant forms, all while maintaining stringent environmental standards. So bright is Tokyo’s gleam – which is sure to impress visitors at the 2020 Olympic Games – that the city might seem like an anomaly, given gloomy reports that, after decades of stagnation, Japan’s GDP growth remains anemic.

In fact, even the small cities of Kushiro and Nemuro in Hokkaido, located near the disputed islands between Russia and Japan, are being rebuilt and modernized at a brisk pace, as is apparent to any tourist (as I was this summer). What explains this divergence between disappointing national economic data and visible progress in Japanese cities?

It may be a problem of calculation. According to official data, Japan’s economic growth slowed by one percentage point, in real terms, in the 2014 fiscal year. Yet, according to Bank of Japan researchers, tax data suggest that growth was more than three percentage points higher than the official figure, implying that GDP was some ¥30 trillion (about $300 billion dollars) larger than officially reported. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Desperate Central Bankers

Posted by hkarner - 27. September 2016

Photo of Stephen S. Roach

Stephen S. Roach

Stephen S. Roach, former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm’s chief economist, is a senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a senior lecturer at Yale’s School of Management. He is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.

SEP 26, 2016,, Project Syndicate

NEW HAVEN – The final day of the summer marked the start of yet another season of futile policymaking by two of the world’s major central banks – the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The Fed did nothing, which is precisely the problem. And the alchemists at the BOJ unveiled yet another feeble unconventional policy gambit.

Both the Fed and the BOJ are pursuing strategies that are woefully disconnected from the economies they have been entrusted to manage. Moreover, their latest actions reinforce a deepening commitment to an increasingly insidious transmission mechanism between monetary policy, financial markets, and asset-dependent economies. This approach led to the meltdown of 2008-2009, and it could well sow the seeds of another crisis in the years ahead.

Lost in the debate over the efficacy of the new and powerful tools that central bankers have added to their arsenal is the harsh reality of anemic economic growth. Japan is an obvious case in point. Stuck in what has been essentially a 1% growth trajectory for the last quarter-century, its economy has failed to respond to repeated efforts at extraordinary monetary stimulus. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Wir spielen japanisches Roulette

Posted by hkarner - 24. September 2016

22.09.2016 | 18:25 | Josef Urschitz (Die Presse)Urschitz1

Kolumne Weil Nullzinsen und Gelddrucken weitgehend wirkungslos blieben, probiert Japan jetzt die totale staatliche Manipulation des Zinsmarktes. Ein ziemlich gefährliches Experiment.

Dass die Verschuldung der Industriestaaten auf konventionelle Weise – etwa durch bloßes ausgabenseitiges Sparen – nicht mehr einzufangen ist, gilt unterdessen als gesichert. Dass Staaten zum Zweck des Schuldenabbaus immer stärker auf die Vermögen ihrer Staatsbürger schielen, auch. Was sich ändert, sind die angedachten beziehungsweise angewandten Methoden.

• Begonnen hat es vor ungefähr fünf Jahren mit dem Vorschlag des Internationalen Währungsfonds und des globalen Beratungskonzerns Boston Consulting, die entgleisten Schuldenstände der Industriestaaten mittels einer allgemeinen Vermögensabgabe wieder auf ein tragfähiges Niveau (also ungefähr 60 Prozent des BIPs) zu drücken. Diese Vermögensabgabe hätte beim damaligen Schuldenstand ungefähr 30 Prozent der angehäuften Finanz-, Immobilien- und sonstigen Vermögen ausmachen müssen. Jetzt wäre es natürlich schon deutlich mehr. Eine bestechend einfache (und nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg in einigen Ländern auch praktizierte) Methode, die in Demokratien in Friedenszeiten aber einen entscheidenden Haken hat: Sie führt wahrscheinlich zum sofortigen Sturz der Regierung. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Better Economic Plan for Japan

Posted by hkarner - 15. September 2016

Photo of Joseph E. Stiglitz

Joseph E. Stiglitz

Joseph E. Stiglitz, recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2001 and the John Bates Clark Medal in 1979, is University Professor at Columbia University, Co-Chair of the High-Level Expert Group on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress at the OECD, and Chief Economist of the Roosevelt Institute. A former senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank and chair of the US president’s Council of Economic Advisers under Bill Clinton, in 2000 he founded the Initiative for Policy Dialogue, a think tank on international development based at Columbia University. His most recent book is The Euro: How a Common Currency Threatens the Future of Europe.

SEP 14, 2016, Project Syndicate

NEW YORK – It’s been a quarter-century since Japan’s asset bubble burst – and a quarter-century of malaise as one “lost decade” has followed another. Some of the criticism of its economic policies is unwarranted. Growth is not an objective in itself; we should be concerned with standards of living. Japan is ahead of the curve in curbing population growth, and productivity has been increasing. Growth in output per working-age person, especially since 2008, has been higher than in the United States, and much higher than in Europe.

Still, the Japanese believe they can do better. I agree. Japan has problems on both the supply and the demand side, and in both the real economy and finance. To address them, it needs an economic program that is more likely to work than the measures policymakers have recently adopted, which have failed to achieve their inflation target, restore confidence, or boost growth to the level desired. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Japan’s demand for ’seamless Brexit‘ is a timely warning against hubris 

Posted by hkarner - 7. September 2016

 Britain is likely to scrape by without any economic contraction this quarter and seems almost certain to avoid a recession this year. Few could have hoped that the immediate Brexit squall would blow over so quickly.

The record one-month jump in services activity in August clinches a spate of remarkably resilient figures, more or less neutralizing the cascade of crashing indexes in July.

Markit’s combined gauge of services and manufacturing is back up to 53.6. This is higher than it was before the referendum vote, and higher than it is currently in the eurozone, where Schadenfreude has proved short-lived. It is no longer implausible to suggest that the UK economy might outperform the eurozone this quarter, and nor should this be a great surprise.

The 12pc drop in sterling against the euro – compared to its trading range earlier this year – is a macro-economic stimulus for Britain. It is a form of macro-economic tightening for the eurozone, creating an extra headwind as it struggles to break out of a deflation trap. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Abenomics: Overhyped, underappreciated

Posted by hkarner - 30. Juli 2016

Date: 29-07-2016
Source: The Economist

What Japan’s economic experiment can teach the rest of the world

Abe CCIN THE 1980s Japan was a closely studied example of economic dynamism. In the decades since, it has commanded attention largely for its economic stagnation. After years of falling prices and fitful growth, Japan’s nominal GDP was roughly the same in 2015 as it was 20 years earlier. America’s grew by 134% in the same time period; even Italy’s went up by two-thirds. Now Japan is in the spotlight for a different reason: its attempts at economic resuscitation.

To reflate Japan and reform it, Shinzo Abe, prime minister since December 2012, proposed the three “arrows” of what has become known as Abenomics: monetary stimulus, fiscal “flexibility” and structural reform. The first arrow would mobilise Japan’s productive powers and the third would expand them, allowing the second arrow to hit an ambitious fiscal target. The prevailing view is that none has hit home. Headline inflation was negative in the year to May. Japan’s public debt looks as bad as ever. In areas such as labour-market reform, nowhere near enough has been done. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Abe-san investiert

Posted by hkarner - 30. Juli 2016

29.07.2016, Von Heiner Flassbeck, MakroskopFlassbeck

Anders als die deutsche, hat die japanische Regierung unter Premierminister Shinzo Abe begriffen, dass es keinen Wohlstand ohne öffentliche Investitionen gibt. Noch erstaunlicher: Man begreift auch, dass die Investitionen des Staates nicht vom absoluten Stand der staatlichen Schulden abhängig gemacht werden dürfen. Woher kommt die kollektive Begriffsstutzigkeit in Deutschland und Europa?

Der japanische Premierminister Shinzo Abe ist seit Beginn seiner Amtszeit dadurch aufgefallen, dass er sich nicht scheute, herrschende ökonomische Dogmen über den Haufen zu werfen (wir haben das unter anderem hier ausführlich erläutert). Man hat folglich eine ganze volkswirtschaftliche Ausrichtung nach ihm benannt: Abenomics. Das war im Prinzip ein sehr erfolgversprechender Ansatz, aber auch er ist letztlich nicht erfolgreich gewesen, weil es Shinzo Abe nicht gelungen ist, die Lohndeflation in seinem Land zu durchbrechen.

Nun schickt sich Herr Abe erneut an, der Welt zu zeigen, dass sein Land nicht wie Europa darauf warten wird bis ein Aufschwung vom Himmel fällt, sondern dass der Staat auch dann agieren kann, wenn der Schuldenstand so hoch ist wie derzeit in Japan, nämlich etwa 250 Prozent des BIP. Man bedenke: In Europa werden Länder offiziell dafür bestraft, dass sie in einer tiefen Rezession bei wesentlich höherer Arbeitslosigkeit als in Japan nicht mit Gewalt versuchen, den Schuldenstand auf 60 Prozent des BIP zu bringen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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