Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Interest’

Libor’s Climb Past 2% is Unnerving Some Investors

Posted by hkarner - 5. März 2018

Date: 04-03-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

A benchmark used to set borrowing costs on trillions of dollars worth of loans is on the rise, stirring concerns about the effect of higher U.S. interest rates on consumers and businesses.

The three-month U.S. dollar London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, surpassed 2% this week for the first time since 2008. That will lift rates on more than $100 trillion in debt and derivative contracts that are linked to the U.S. benchmark, from business and student loans to home mortgages.

Libor has been rising for the last two years as the Federal Reserve has tightened interest rates. But gains have accelerated in recent months, according to RBC Capital Markets strategist Michael Cloherty, because of changes to the U.S. tax code that have encouraged companies to reshuffle bond holdings.

One recent source of worry among strategists and investors has been the growing gap between Libor, which is set amongst banks, and the overnight index swap rate, which is determined by central bank rates. That spread has widened sharply recently and this week was at its highest level since 2009.

Back then, the sudden widening in the Libor-OIS spread signaled mounting stress within the financial system as a liquidity crunch made it more expensive for banks to lend to each other. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , | Leave a Comment »

Automation will drive interest rates higher, a new report concludes

Posted by hkarner - 3. März 2018

Date: 01-03-2018
Source: The Economist

As rates rise, stress levels will, too

REAL interest rates in the developed world have been low ever since the financial crisis of 2008-09 (see chart). The global economy might have struggled to recover had that not been the case; higher rates would have caused many more companies and homeowners to default.

Central banks are now starting to push rates slightly higher. And according to a new paper* from Bain, a management consultancy, the trend towards robotics will push them higher still—at least for a decade. That could be a shock for the financial markets.

Bain estimates that by 2030 American companies will have invested as much as $8trn in automation. As companies scramble to borrow money in order to buy machinery and robots, the resulting investment boom will drive up rates.

Automation will boost productivity, which has grown sluggishly in recent years. This slowdown may have been caused by the shift from manufacturing to services, where productivity gains are harder to achieve. Between 1993 and 2014, the American car industry more than doubled its productivity, but lost 28% of its workforce. By contrast, over the same period hospitals added 28% more jobs and increased productivity by just 16%.

But automation is about to come to a wide range of service industries. Though that will be a boon for productivity, Bain estimates that 20-25% of current jobs could be eliminated by 2030. This shift will be much faster than previous labour-market transformations, such as that from agriculture to industry at the start of the 20th century. Lower-skilled workers, such as waiters, will take the biggest hit. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Fed’s Powell Says His Economic Outlook Has Improved

Posted by hkarner - 1. März 2018

Date: 28-02-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Central-bank chief sees ‘further gradual increases’ in interest rates

WASHINGTON—Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the economy’s prospects have brightened in recent months, indicating the central bank is on track to keep gradually lifting short-term interest rates and perhaps even pick up the pace this year.

“My personal outlook for the economy has strengthened since December,” he told members of the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday in his first Capitol Hill appearance since taking over as Fed chief earlier this month.

“We’ve seen continuing strength in the labor market. We’ve seen some data that will, in my case, add some confidence to my view that inflation is moving up to target. We’ve also seen continued strength around the globe, and we’ve seen fiscal policy become more stimulative,” he said in answer to a question about what could cause the Fed to raise rates more than three times this year. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

(Not only American) banks pay depositors less than online accounts

Posted by hkarner - 19. Februar 2018

Date: 18-02-2018
Source: The Economist

They seem to be relying on the power of inertia to retain their customers—a risky strategy

EVERYONE knows that interest rates are rising—except, perhaps, one group: American savers who have put $12trn in bank accounts. They have seen the government’s deposit guarantee, purportedly designed to protect them, become a ticket for banks to receive free money. For evidence, look no further than the ubiquitous bank branches dotting America’s high streets.

Those seeking a home for their money find that, unlike petrol stations or grocers, banks are not required to post their most important price, the interest rate. Ask and you will be referred to a specialised member of staff. After a wait, numbers are typed into a computer, followed by pauses for thought, a bit of throat clearing and, often, comments that the current rates on offer may not exceed inflation. Then come hints, doubtless filtered through a compliance department, of the higher returns available on the bank’s investment offerings, which, of course, carry risks (and fees). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Österreich hat sich bereits 60 Milliarden Euro wegen Niedrigzinsen erspart

Posted by hkarner - 11. Januar 2018

„Österreich hat sich noch nie so günstig finanziert“, sagt der Chef der Bundesfinanzierungsagentur.

Trotz auf 211,2 Milliarden Euro gestiegener Finanzschulden hat sich Österreich seit 2009 durch das bestehende Niedrigzinsumfeld gemessen am durchschnittlichen Zinsniveau vor der Finanzkrise rund 60 Milliarden Euro an Zinszahlungen erspart. Der Zinsaufwand in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) ist von 1996 bis 2017 von 3,4 auf 1,46 Prozent gesunken. Das sind 5,41 Milliarden Euro bzw. 588 Euro pro Kopf.

„Österreich hat sich noch nie so günstig finanziert“, sagte Markus Stix, Chef der für die Schuldenaufnahme zuständigen Oesterreichischen Bundesfinanzierungsagentur (OeBFA) am Donnerstag im Klub der Wirtschaftspublizisten in Wien. 2017 sei mit rund 40 Milliarden Euro auch das größte jährliche Finanzierungsvolumen in der Zweiten Republik umgesetzt worden. Davon entfielen allerdings acht Milliarden Euro auf die Refinanzierung der Bad-Bank der Kommunalkredit, der KA Finanz AG.

Erstmals ist laut Stix auch die durchschnittliche Verzinsung des gesamten Schuldenportfolios unter die Marke von 2,5 Prozent gefallen, nämlich auf 2,47 Prozent. Im Vorjahr waren es 2,68 Prozent. Die durchschnittliche Restlaufzeit stieg auf rund 10 Jahre.

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Exklusivinterview mit dem Spar- und Kreditzins: „Ich beherrschte die Welt“

Posted by hkarner - 30. Dezember 2017

Andras Szigètvari, 29. Dezember 2017, 10:00 derstandard.at

Satire: Der Zins über seine Wut, die AfD und seine PR-Strategie

STANDARD: Sie haben unsere Redaktion kontaktiert und um dieses Gespräch gebeten. Weshalb?

Zins: Weil es mir reicht. Ich bemühe mich seit Jahren um ein Comeback, habe die besten Marketingstrategien entwickelt. Trotzdem wird mir die Rückkehr verwehrt. Sehen Sie sich um: Nirgends gibt es mich. Keine Zinsen am Sparbuch, keine Zinsen bei Staatsanleihen.

STANDARD: Okay, jetzt haben wir eine Menge Fragen. Zunächst: Sie betreiben Marketing?

Zins: Kennen Sie den Spruch: „Die Niedrigzinspolitik der Notenbanken ist eine Enteignung der Sparer?“ Sicher. Jede zweite deutsche Zeitung bringt ihn mindestens sieben Mal die Woche. Manche Banker summen das sogar im Schlaf! Der Slogan stammt von mir, mein größter PR-Erfolg. Das müssen Sie sich vorstellen: Der Durchschnittsarbeitnehmer in Österreich oder Deutschland hat gerade ein paar Euro am Konto, weil Miete, Auto, Kinderturnen und Hundebeauty-Salon ohnehin alles verschlingen. Zinsen können dem egal sein. Trotzdem sind alle empört: „Wir werden enteignet, Frechheit.“ Genial, nicht? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel, Jokes | Verschlagwortet mit: , , | Leave a Comment »

Surveying the Damage of Low Interest Rates

Posted by hkarner - 16. Dezember 2017

Anders Åslund

Anders Åslund is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC. He is the author of Ukraine: What Went Wrong and How to Fix It and, most recently, Europe’s Growth Challenge (with Simeon Djankov). He is currently writing a book on Russia’s crony capitalism.

Few would disagree that it was necessary to slash interest rates in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis. But after a decade of ultra-loose monetary policies across advanced economies, growth remains tepid, financial risks have proliferated, and middle-class savers have lost out.

WASHINGTON, DC – For years after the 2008 financial crisis, policymakers congratulated themselves for having averted a second Great Depression. They had responded to the global recession with the kind of Keynesian fiscal and monetary stimulus that the moment required.

But nine years have passed, and official interest rates are still hovering around zero, while growth has been mediocre. Since 2008, the European Union has grown at a dismal average annual rate of just 0.9%.

The broad Keynesian consensus that emerged immediately after the crisis has become today’s prevailing economic dogma: as long as growth remains substandard and annual inflation remains below 2%, more stimulus is deemed not just appropriate, but necessary.

The arguments underlying this dogma do not hold water. For starters, measures of inflation are so poor as to be arbitrary. As Harvard’s Martin Feldstein notes, governments have no good way to measure price inflation for services and new technologies, which account for an ever greater share of advanced economies’ GDP, because quality in these sectors varies substantially over time. Moreover, real estate and other assets are not even included in the accounting. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , | Leave a Comment »

The Fear Factor in Today’s Interest Rates

Posted by hkarner - 26. September 2017

Carmen Reinhart is Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.

Vincent Reinhart is Chief Economist for Standish Mellon Asset Management.

Atlantic-hugging policymakers and pundits, buffered by a continent and a large ocean, may not fully appreciate the significant effect on global financial markets that the threat posed by North Korea has had in recent months. But competition for safe assets has clearly heated up.

CAMBRIDGE – Many who attended grade school during the Cold War will remember what they were instructed to do in the event of a nuclear attack. When the siren wailed, US students were told, one should “duck and cover.” Apparently, squatting under your desk with your arms covering your head would save you from nuclear annihilation. If only it were so.

To recall this absurd advice is also to appreciate the current angst now being felt in Japan. Several times in recent weeks, cellphone texts (today’s sirens) have informed the public that the faint streak in the sky overhead is an intercontinental ballistic missile launched by a nuclear-armed 33-year-old dictator with impulse control issues. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , | Leave a Comment »

Think Rates Are Going Up? Banks Don’t

Posted by hkarner - 24. August 2017

Date: 23-08-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The percentage of bank assets that won’t mature or change rates for more than five years reached a new high in the second quarter

After years of waiting for interest rates to rise, some banks are lending as if that day will never come, loading up on a record amount of loans and securities that carry low rates for long periods.

The percentage of bank assets that won’t mature or change rates for more than five years reached a new high in the second quarter, according to Federal Deposit Insurance Corp data released Tuesday. That means banks are allowing more borrowers to lock in low rates for long periods, a potential risk should rates move sharply higher. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , | Leave a Comment »

As Eurozone Economy Strengthens, Divisions Within ECB Re-Emerge

Posted by hkarner - 9. März 2017

Date: 08-03-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Mixed messages reflect the difficulties of crafting a single monetary policy for 19 nations

FRANKFURT—Europe’s economy is accelerating, sparking optimism during a year of contentious politics but also rekindling a war of words between the eurozone’s top monetary officials.

In one camp is European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who wants to avoid dramatic moves with fraught elections looming in the Netherlands, France and Germany. In the other is German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, an ardent critic of the ECB’s easy-money policies, who is concerned the dosage of stimulus is too strong for a healing economy.

The two sides closed ranks last year when the bloc flirted with deflation and the ECB came under attack from senior German politicians. But divisions are re-emerging as the bloc’s €10 trillion economy strengthens.

In a rare turn, the eurozone is currently the fastest-growing major advanced economy, according to financial-data firm IHS Markit, and its inflation rate has rebounded to 2%, slightly above the ECB’s target rate. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , | Leave a Comment »