Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Interest’

Hohe Schuldenstände verhindern weitere Leitzins-Anhebungen

Posted by hkarner - 18. April 2019

Dank an H.G.

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten | Veröffentlicht: 16.04.19 17:14 Uhr
Die Notenbanken der westlichen Industriestaaten haben im ersten Quartal 2019 den
Zinserhöhungszyklus abgesagt. Die immens gestiegenen Schuldenstände bei Staaten, Haushalten
und Firmen machen höhere Zinsen unmöglich.

Der US-Großbank J.P. Morgan (JPM) zufolge hat die US-Zentralbank Federal Reserve die Phase der
Zinserhöhungen vorerst beendet. Der US-Leitzins liege derzeit zwischen 2,25 und 2,5 Prozent; angesichts der
aktuellen Inflation von 2 Prozent ergebe dies einen realen Leitzins nur knapp über der Nulllinie. In Europa habe
die EZB trotz fünfjähriger Wachstumsphase in der Eurozone gar nicht erst mit Zinserhöhungen begonnen und der
reale Leitzins ist mit minus 1 Prozent tief negativ.

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What if Zero Interest Rates Are the New Normal?

Posted by hkarner - 31. März 2019

Adair Turner, a former chairman of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services Authority and former member of the UK’s Financial Policy Committee, is Chairman of the Institute for New Economic Thinking. His latest book is Between Debt and the Devil.

The valid insight behind „modern monetary theory“ – that governments and central banks together can always create nominal demand – was explained by Milton Friedman in 1948. But it is vital also to understand that excessive monetary finance is hugely harmful, and it is dangerous to view it as a costless way to solve long-term challenges.

TOKYO – Ever since major central banks cut short-term interest rates close to zero in autumn 2008, and subsequently purchased huge volumes of bonds as part of their quantitative easing operations, economists have debated about when and how fast the “exit” from these unorthodox monetary policies would be.

But, a decade later, developed-economy interest rates are stuck far below pre-crisis levels and likely to remain so. Germany’s ten-year bond yield of -0.02% (as of March 23) signals market expectations that the European Central Bank will maintain zero policy rates not just until 2020 (the official ECB forward guidance) but to 2030. Japanese bond yields imply zero or negative interest rates for even longer. And while ten-year yields in the United States and the United Kingdom are just above 1% and 2.4%, respectively, both of these suggest minimal or no increases in policy rates for another decade. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Staatsschulden auf Rekordniveau – alles kein Problem?

Posted by hkarner - 21. Januar 2019

András Szigetvari19. Jänner 2019, 18:00 derstandard.at

Ein französischer Ökonom behauptet, dass sich führende Industrieländer weniger Sorgen wegen ihrer Schulden machen müssen als gedacht. Die provokante These erntet Beifall. Was bedeutet sie für Europa?

Es klingt wie eine utopische Geschichte aus einer fernen Zukunft. Ein Land lässt neue Schulen, Kindergärten und die besten Eisenbahnverbindungen bauen. Geld spielt dabei keine Rolle. Das Land verschuldet sich immer weiter. Doch das stört niemanden, weil der Schuldenberg unbegrenzt wachsen kann. Klingt unrealistisch? Mag sein. Doch einige der führenden Ökonomen diskutieren derzeit angeregt darüber, ob die eigene Zunft die Bedeutung staatlicher Schulden über die vergangenen Jahre und Jahrzehnte massiv überschätzt hat. Die Erkenntnis hätte politische Bedeutung. Schließlich ist in der Eurozone vorgeschrieben, dass sich alle Mitgliedsländer an Schuldenobergrenzen halten müssen, auch wenn derzeit die meisten Länder die Regeln brechen. Nulldefizite und Überschüsse gelten zudem in vielen Staaten als Errungenschaften. Aber was, wenn Schulden nichts Negatives sind?

Günstige Verzinsung

Der führende Kopf hinter der Debatte ist der ehemalige Chefökonom des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF), Olivier Blanchard. Der Franzose forscht am Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), einem eher konservativen Thinktank in Washington. Blanchards These, die er anhand der USA durchargumentiert: Seit gut 40 Jahren sinkt das weltweite Zinsniveau. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Risks to the Global Economy in 2019

Posted by hkarner - 14. Januar 2019

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, his new book, The Curse of Cash, was released in August 2016.

Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change. They will include a growth recession in China, a rise in global long-term real interest rates, and a crescendo of populist economic policies.

CAMBRIDGE – As Mark Twain never said, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you think you know for sure that just ain’t so.” Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change. They will include a growth recession in China, a rise in global long-term real interest rates, and a crescendo of populist economic policies that undermine the credibility of central bank independence, resulting in higher interest rates on “safe” advanced-country government bonds.

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How Your Brokers Can Make 10 Times More on Your Cash Than You Do

Posted by hkarner - 5. August 2018

Date: 04-08-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Jason Zweig

It pays to pay attention to what your brokerage is doing with your cash

When some investment firms say they will treat your money as if it were their own, they mean it — all too well.

If the Securities and Exchange Commission wants to make good on its promise to compel brokers to act in their customers’ best interest, it should shine a klieg light on how brokers treat investors’ cash.

Investors invest, but of course they leave billions in cash in brokerage accounts, too.

At Morgan Stanley, $6.3 billion of that cash is in a money-market mutual fund yielding 1.8%. On Aug. 13, the firm will shut that fund and sweep its clients’ idle cash into bank accounts that, after a transition period, could yield much less. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Österreich profitiert einmal mehr von sehr niedrigen Zinsen

Posted by hkarner - 3. Juli 2018

Österreichs Schuldenverwalter haben 60 Prozent des für heuer geplanten Emissionsvolumens bereits erledigt.

Die Republik Österreich konnte bei der heutigen Auktion von Bundesanleihen wieder von sehr günstigen Zinsen profitieren. Die Aufstockung der zehnjährigen Staatsanleihe erfolgte mit einer durchschnittlichen Rendite von 0,554 Prozent. Das ist der niedrigste Wert seit der Erst-Emission im Jänner dieses Jahres, die noch bei 0,788 Prozent über die Bühne ging, so OeBFA-Chef Markus Stix zur APA.

Auch die Aufstockung einer noch rund 20 Jahre laufenden Emission erfolgte zum bisher niedrigsten Zinssatz von 1,047 Prozent. Zuletzt wurde sie im April mit 1,093 Prozent aufgestockt. Am Sekundärmarkt rentierte sie im Sommer 2016 allerdings schon mit 0,65 Prozent. „Da war die Nachfrage nicht gegeben“, so Stix dazu, warum damals von Seiten der OeBFA nicht aufgestockt wurde.

In einem von geopolitischen Risiken und Handelskonflikten geprägten Umfeld habe Österreich wieder von der Funktion als sicherer Hafen für Anleger profitiert. Bereits nach der letzten Sitzung der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) Mitte Juni habe sich das Marktumfeld deutlich verändert. Durch die Ankündigung, dass sie die Leitzinsen nicht vor dem Sommer 2019 erhöhen werde, sei das Zinsniveau gesunken und auch das lange Ende tiefer geworden. Zudem profitierte Österreich auch davon, dass sowohl IHS als auch Wifo ihre Wirtschaftswachstumsprognosen bestätigt haben. „Das führt zu sehr niedrigen Zinsen“, sagte Stix. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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After the Next Recession

Posted by hkarner - 7. Mai 2018

Thanks to A.K.

Economic Principals, 6/5/2018

The biggest problem facing the United States today is the inevitability of the business cycle. Unemployment Friday reached its lowest rate in seventeen years. “Wages not keeping pace,” warned The New York Times. The “historically long jobs expansion… shows little evidence of slowing,” said The Wall Street Journal.

That’s absurd, of course. Alarm bells may not be ringing. The 2017 tax cut stimulus is still working its way into the system. But with the jobless rate at 3.9 percent, wage growth will accelerate. Bottlenecks will form. Interest expenses will grow. Inflation rates will increase.

Sometime in the next two years or so, some combination of factors will force the Federal Reserve Board’s hand. Interest rates will rise more sharply than expected. A recession will begin, with all the usual adverse consequences for Federal and state budgets. Then, as Warren Buffett likes to say, as the tide goes out, we will discover who’s been swimming naked – politically, that is, not financially. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Ann Pettifor – The Bank of England should not raise rates: here’s why

Posted by hkarner - 24. April 2018

Thanks to M.R.

Central Banks have discovered that they have little idea of what is occuring in the economies they are supposed to be guiding. Using economic models that do not function makes it almost impossible to guride their economies.

Ann Pettifor – Economist, director of Policy Research in Macroeconomics (PRIME) –  Author of “Just Money – How Society Can Break the Despotic Power of Finance”

Cross-posted from Prime Economics

This week a friend casually explained that he and his wife considered having a second child. But having recently moved into a new house, they were having to fork out a large share of their income on mortgage interest payments. Hearing talk of potential rate rises had therefore persuaded them not to risk another pregnancy.

Such are the life-changing impacts of decisions (or non-decisions) made by a group of men (and one woman) on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England.

That morning the BBC had asked me to participate the next day in their 6.15 a.m. Business slot on Radio 4’s Today programme. The reason, the producer explained, was my known opposition to further Bank Rate rises. As I prepared to make the case that evening, Chris Giles of the FT tweeted that Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, had flip-flopped on the question of a rate rise. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Can’t hardly wait

Posted by hkarner - 24. März 2018

Date: 22-03-2018
Source: The Economist: Free exchange

A misguided notion of what is normal could cause central banks to err

LIKE teenagers, central bankers long to feel normal. For many of them (the central bankers, that is), the past decade has been an unusually angst-ridden one. They stumbled through it, confused by the way their policymaking bodies were changing, unsure what to do with their interest rates, embarrassed by their burgeoning balance-sheets. Teenagers often seek to quell their anxiety and insecurity by imitating behaviour they regard as normal. So too for central bankers.

But the desire to normalise policy, and leave crisis-era measures behind, could distract central bankers from their main goals, namely to support growth and control inflation. The Bank for International Settlements, a global club for central bankers, recently urged officials not to let market jitters discourage them from raising interest rates. Yet at worst, chasing some elusive notion of normal could put the global recovery at risk. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Libor’s Climb Past 2% is Unnerving Some Investors

Posted by hkarner - 5. März 2018

Date: 04-03-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

A benchmark used to set borrowing costs on trillions of dollars worth of loans is on the rise, stirring concerns about the effect of higher U.S. interest rates on consumers and businesses.

The three-month U.S. dollar London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, surpassed 2% this week for the first time since 2008. That will lift rates on more than $100 trillion in debt and derivative contracts that are linked to the U.S. benchmark, from business and student loans to home mortgages.

Libor has been rising for the last two years as the Federal Reserve has tightened interest rates. But gains have accelerated in recent months, according to RBC Capital Markets strategist Michael Cloherty, because of changes to the U.S. tax code that have encouraged companies to reshuffle bond holdings.

One recent source of worry among strategists and investors has been the growing gap between Libor, which is set amongst banks, and the overnight index swap rate, which is determined by central bank rates. That spread has widened sharply recently and this week was at its highest level since 2009.

Back then, the sudden widening in the Libor-OIS spread signaled mounting stress within the financial system as a liquidity crunch made it more expensive for banks to lend to each other. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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