Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Interest’

Österreich profitiert einmal mehr von sehr niedrigen Zinsen

Posted by hkarner - 3. Juli 2018

Österreichs Schuldenverwalter haben 60 Prozent des für heuer geplanten Emissionsvolumens bereits erledigt.

Die Republik Österreich konnte bei der heutigen Auktion von Bundesanleihen wieder von sehr günstigen Zinsen profitieren. Die Aufstockung der zehnjährigen Staatsanleihe erfolgte mit einer durchschnittlichen Rendite von 0,554 Prozent. Das ist der niedrigste Wert seit der Erst-Emission im Jänner dieses Jahres, die noch bei 0,788 Prozent über die Bühne ging, so OeBFA-Chef Markus Stix zur APA.

Auch die Aufstockung einer noch rund 20 Jahre laufenden Emission erfolgte zum bisher niedrigsten Zinssatz von 1,047 Prozent. Zuletzt wurde sie im April mit 1,093 Prozent aufgestockt. Am Sekundärmarkt rentierte sie im Sommer 2016 allerdings schon mit 0,65 Prozent. „Da war die Nachfrage nicht gegeben“, so Stix dazu, warum damals von Seiten der OeBFA nicht aufgestockt wurde.

In einem von geopolitischen Risiken und Handelskonflikten geprägten Umfeld habe Österreich wieder von der Funktion als sicherer Hafen für Anleger profitiert. Bereits nach der letzten Sitzung der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) Mitte Juni habe sich das Marktumfeld deutlich verändert. Durch die Ankündigung, dass sie die Leitzinsen nicht vor dem Sommer 2019 erhöhen werde, sei das Zinsniveau gesunken und auch das lange Ende tiefer geworden. Zudem profitierte Österreich auch davon, dass sowohl IHS als auch Wifo ihre Wirtschaftswachstumsprognosen bestätigt haben. „Das führt zu sehr niedrigen Zinsen“, sagte Stix. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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After the Next Recession

Posted by hkarner - 7. Mai 2018

Thanks to A.K.

Economic Principals, 6/5/2018

The biggest problem facing the United States today is the inevitability of the business cycle. Unemployment Friday reached its lowest rate in seventeen years. “Wages not keeping pace,” warned The New York Times. The “historically long jobs expansion… shows little evidence of slowing,” said The Wall Street Journal.

That’s absurd, of course. Alarm bells may not be ringing. The 2017 tax cut stimulus is still working its way into the system. But with the jobless rate at 3.9 percent, wage growth will accelerate. Bottlenecks will form. Interest expenses will grow. Inflation rates will increase.

Sometime in the next two years or so, some combination of factors will force the Federal Reserve Board’s hand. Interest rates will rise more sharply than expected. A recession will begin, with all the usual adverse consequences for Federal and state budgets. Then, as Warren Buffett likes to say, as the tide goes out, we will discover who’s been swimming naked – politically, that is, not financially. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Ann Pettifor – The Bank of England should not raise rates: here’s why

Posted by hkarner - 24. April 2018

Thanks to M.R.

Central Banks have discovered that they have little idea of what is occuring in the economies they are supposed to be guiding. Using economic models that do not function makes it almost impossible to guride their economies.

Ann Pettifor – Economist, director of Policy Research in Macroeconomics (PRIME) –  Author of “Just Money – How Society Can Break the Despotic Power of Finance”

Cross-posted from Prime Economics

This week a friend casually explained that he and his wife considered having a second child. But having recently moved into a new house, they were having to fork out a large share of their income on mortgage interest payments. Hearing talk of potential rate rises had therefore persuaded them not to risk another pregnancy.

Such are the life-changing impacts of decisions (or non-decisions) made by a group of men (and one woman) on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England.

That morning the BBC had asked me to participate the next day in their 6.15 a.m. Business slot on Radio 4’s Today programme. The reason, the producer explained, was my known opposition to further Bank Rate rises. As I prepared to make the case that evening, Chris Giles of the FT tweeted that Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, had flip-flopped on the question of a rate rise. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Can’t hardly wait

Posted by hkarner - 24. März 2018

Date: 22-03-2018
Source: The Economist: Free exchange

A misguided notion of what is normal could cause central banks to err

LIKE teenagers, central bankers long to feel normal. For many of them (the central bankers, that is), the past decade has been an unusually angst-ridden one. They stumbled through it, confused by the way their policymaking bodies were changing, unsure what to do with their interest rates, embarrassed by their burgeoning balance-sheets. Teenagers often seek to quell their anxiety and insecurity by imitating behaviour they regard as normal. So too for central bankers.

But the desire to normalise policy, and leave crisis-era measures behind, could distract central bankers from their main goals, namely to support growth and control inflation. The Bank for International Settlements, a global club for central bankers, recently urged officials not to let market jitters discourage them from raising interest rates. Yet at worst, chasing some elusive notion of normal could put the global recovery at risk. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Libor’s Climb Past 2% is Unnerving Some Investors

Posted by hkarner - 5. März 2018

Date: 04-03-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

A benchmark used to set borrowing costs on trillions of dollars worth of loans is on the rise, stirring concerns about the effect of higher U.S. interest rates on consumers and businesses.

The three-month U.S. dollar London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, surpassed 2% this week for the first time since 2008. That will lift rates on more than $100 trillion in debt and derivative contracts that are linked to the U.S. benchmark, from business and student loans to home mortgages.

Libor has been rising for the last two years as the Federal Reserve has tightened interest rates. But gains have accelerated in recent months, according to RBC Capital Markets strategist Michael Cloherty, because of changes to the U.S. tax code that have encouraged companies to reshuffle bond holdings.

One recent source of worry among strategists and investors has been the growing gap between Libor, which is set amongst banks, and the overnight index swap rate, which is determined by central bank rates. That spread has widened sharply recently and this week was at its highest level since 2009.

Back then, the sudden widening in the Libor-OIS spread signaled mounting stress within the financial system as a liquidity crunch made it more expensive for banks to lend to each other. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Automation will drive interest rates higher, a new report concludes

Posted by hkarner - 3. März 2018

Date: 01-03-2018
Source: The Economist

As rates rise, stress levels will, too

REAL interest rates in the developed world have been low ever since the financial crisis of 2008-09 (see chart). The global economy might have struggled to recover had that not been the case; higher rates would have caused many more companies and homeowners to default.

Central banks are now starting to push rates slightly higher. And according to a new paper* from Bain, a management consultancy, the trend towards robotics will push them higher still—at least for a decade. That could be a shock for the financial markets.

Bain estimates that by 2030 American companies will have invested as much as $8trn in automation. As companies scramble to borrow money in order to buy machinery and robots, the resulting investment boom will drive up rates.

Automation will boost productivity, which has grown sluggishly in recent years. This slowdown may have been caused by the shift from manufacturing to services, where productivity gains are harder to achieve. Between 1993 and 2014, the American car industry more than doubled its productivity, but lost 28% of its workforce. By contrast, over the same period hospitals added 28% more jobs and increased productivity by just 16%.

But automation is about to come to a wide range of service industries. Though that will be a boon for productivity, Bain estimates that 20-25% of current jobs could be eliminated by 2030. This shift will be much faster than previous labour-market transformations, such as that from agriculture to industry at the start of the 20th century. Lower-skilled workers, such as waiters, will take the biggest hit. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Fed’s Powell Says His Economic Outlook Has Improved

Posted by hkarner - 1. März 2018

Date: 28-02-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Central-bank chief sees ‘further gradual increases’ in interest rates

WASHINGTON—Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the economy’s prospects have brightened in recent months, indicating the central bank is on track to keep gradually lifting short-term interest rates and perhaps even pick up the pace this year.

“My personal outlook for the economy has strengthened since December,” he told members of the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday in his first Capitol Hill appearance since taking over as Fed chief earlier this month.

“We’ve seen continuing strength in the labor market. We’ve seen some data that will, in my case, add some confidence to my view that inflation is moving up to target. We’ve also seen continued strength around the globe, and we’ve seen fiscal policy become more stimulative,” he said in answer to a question about what could cause the Fed to raise rates more than three times this year. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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(Not only American) banks pay depositors less than online accounts

Posted by hkarner - 19. Februar 2018

Date: 18-02-2018
Source: The Economist

They seem to be relying on the power of inertia to retain their customers—a risky strategy

EVERYONE knows that interest rates are rising—except, perhaps, one group: American savers who have put $12trn in bank accounts. They have seen the government’s deposit guarantee, purportedly designed to protect them, become a ticket for banks to receive free money. For evidence, look no further than the ubiquitous bank branches dotting America’s high streets.

Those seeking a home for their money find that, unlike petrol stations or grocers, banks are not required to post their most important price, the interest rate. Ask and you will be referred to a specialised member of staff. After a wait, numbers are typed into a computer, followed by pauses for thought, a bit of throat clearing and, often, comments that the current rates on offer may not exceed inflation. Then come hints, doubtless filtered through a compliance department, of the higher returns available on the bank’s investment offerings, which, of course, carry risks (and fees). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Österreich hat sich bereits 60 Milliarden Euro wegen Niedrigzinsen erspart

Posted by hkarner - 11. Januar 2018

„Österreich hat sich noch nie so günstig finanziert“, sagt der Chef der Bundesfinanzierungsagentur.

Trotz auf 211,2 Milliarden Euro gestiegener Finanzschulden hat sich Österreich seit 2009 durch das bestehende Niedrigzinsumfeld gemessen am durchschnittlichen Zinsniveau vor der Finanzkrise rund 60 Milliarden Euro an Zinszahlungen erspart. Der Zinsaufwand in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) ist von 1996 bis 2017 von 3,4 auf 1,46 Prozent gesunken. Das sind 5,41 Milliarden Euro bzw. 588 Euro pro Kopf.

„Österreich hat sich noch nie so günstig finanziert“, sagte Markus Stix, Chef der für die Schuldenaufnahme zuständigen Oesterreichischen Bundesfinanzierungsagentur (OeBFA) am Donnerstag im Klub der Wirtschaftspublizisten in Wien. 2017 sei mit rund 40 Milliarden Euro auch das größte jährliche Finanzierungsvolumen in der Zweiten Republik umgesetzt worden. Davon entfielen allerdings acht Milliarden Euro auf die Refinanzierung der Bad-Bank der Kommunalkredit, der KA Finanz AG.

Erstmals ist laut Stix auch die durchschnittliche Verzinsung des gesamten Schuldenportfolios unter die Marke von 2,5 Prozent gefallen, nämlich auf 2,47 Prozent. Im Vorjahr waren es 2,68 Prozent. Die durchschnittliche Restlaufzeit stieg auf rund 10 Jahre.

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Exklusivinterview mit dem Spar- und Kreditzins: „Ich beherrschte die Welt“

Posted by hkarner - 30. Dezember 2017

Andras Szigètvari, 29. Dezember 2017, 10:00 derstandard.at

Satire: Der Zins über seine Wut, die AfD und seine PR-Strategie

STANDARD: Sie haben unsere Redaktion kontaktiert und um dieses Gespräch gebeten. Weshalb?

Zins: Weil es mir reicht. Ich bemühe mich seit Jahren um ein Comeback, habe die besten Marketingstrategien entwickelt. Trotzdem wird mir die Rückkehr verwehrt. Sehen Sie sich um: Nirgends gibt es mich. Keine Zinsen am Sparbuch, keine Zinsen bei Staatsanleihen.

STANDARD: Okay, jetzt haben wir eine Menge Fragen. Zunächst: Sie betreiben Marketing?

Zins: Kennen Sie den Spruch: „Die Niedrigzinspolitik der Notenbanken ist eine Enteignung der Sparer?“ Sicher. Jede zweite deutsche Zeitung bringt ihn mindestens sieben Mal die Woche. Manche Banker summen das sogar im Schlaf! Der Slogan stammt von mir, mein größter PR-Erfolg. Das müssen Sie sich vorstellen: Der Durchschnittsarbeitnehmer in Österreich oder Deutschland hat gerade ein paar Euro am Konto, weil Miete, Auto, Kinderturnen und Hundebeauty-Salon ohnehin alles verschlingen. Zinsen können dem egal sein. Trotzdem sind alle empört: „Wir werden enteignet, Frechheit.“ Genial, nicht? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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