Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Inflation’

Persistent low inflation results from more than cheap oil and a strong dollar

Posted by hkarner - 2. Oktober 2015

Date: 02-10-2015
Source: The Economist

Everyday low pricesINFLATION has lingered beneath the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for nearly as long as the goal, set in January 2012, has existed. Lately, the misses have been whopping. Data released on September 28th showed that prices have risen by only 0.3% over the past year, according to the Fed’s preferred measure. Conventional wisdom says this shortfall has been caused by one-off factors; chiefly, tumbling oil and commodities prices. For months, the Fed has said that prices will pep up once these effects dissipate. Could it be wrong?

Conventional wisdom is right, up to a point. Core inflation, which excludes fuel and food prices, is a healthier 1.3%. Yet this is still too low. In a speech on September 24th Janet Yellen, the Fed’s chairman, said a strong dollar—another one-off factor—was partly to blame. The greenback is 15% cheaper than a year ago on a trade-weighted basis. This has made imports cheaper and kept costs down for firms that rely on imported parts. If Ms Yellen is right, and if the dollar does not rise further, core inflation should rebound in 2016, with the headline rate not far behind. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The costs of interest rate liftoff for homeowners: Why central bankers should focus on inflation

Posted by hkarner - 2. Oktober 2015

Carlos Garriga, Finn Kydland, Roman Šustek 01 October 2015, voxeu

Research Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Jeff Henley Professor of Economics, University of California Santa Barbara; Carnegie Mellon University; LAEF; and NBER

Lecturer, Queen Mary University of London; Research Associate, the Centre for Macroeconomics

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Stille Revolution der Anleger wird EZB zu Zins-Wende zwingen

Posted by hkarner - 26. September 2015

,  |  Lüthje

Die EZB gerät in die Defensive: Mit den niedrigen Zinsen stützt sie seit Jahren insolvente Staaten und enteignet die Sparer. Doch diese wehren sich mit einer stillen Revolution. Sie horten Bargeld, investieren in langfristige Anlagen und machen einen Bogen um die Staatsanleihen. Damit trocknet die Finanzierung der Schulden-Staaten aus. Die EZB wird schnell reagieren: Schon im kommenden Jahr ist eine Erhöhung der Zinsen auf sechs Prozent denkbar.

Heribert Müller aus Krefeld ist ein in Deutschland bekannter Vertreter technischer Finanzanalysen und –prognosen. Er sagt, die Zinsen werden kräftig steigen. Die Europäische Zentralbank in Frankfurt am Main hält an ihrer Meinung fest, die Zinsen im Euroraum würden noch lange niedrig bleiben. Welcher Voraussage kann man Glauben schenken?

Heribert Müller aus Krefeld hat am 9. September 2015 gesagt: „Die langfristigen Zinsen befinden sich an einem Wendepunkt der Geschichte.“ (Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung) Der seit diesem Frühjahr langsam ansteigende Zins für zehnjährige Bundesanleihen sei nicht nur eine Trendwende, sondern ein „mehrjähriger Teil historischer Zinszyklen“. Müller befindet sich mit seinen Erkenntnissen in illustrer Gesellschaft. Die Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich in Basel (BIZ) tritt seit einigen Jahren dafür ein, von der am Tagesgeschäft orientierten Geldpolitik wegzukommen und sich an den länger laufenden Finanzzyklen zu orientieren. Ihre Gesellschafter, die global wichtigen Zentral- und Notenbanken, haben jedoch bis heute nicht reagiert. Auch das Echo in der Wissenschaft ist verhalten. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Central banking: After the hold, be bold

Posted by hkarner - 25. September 2015

Date: 24-09-2015
Source: The Economist

Nominal GDPIt will take more than patience to free rich economies from the zero-interest-rate world

SOMETIMES doing nothing really is better than doing something. On September 17th the Federal Reserve made the right decision to leave its benchmark interest rate, unchanged since 2008, near zero. With inflation sitting well below the Fed’s 2% target and doubts about China’s economy prevalent (see article), a rise would have been an unnecessary risk.

Yet Janet Yellen, chair of the Fed, will face a similarly tough choice in October—and possibly for many months thereafter. And whenever “lift-off” occurs, financial markets expect rates to stay historically low for years to come. The era of unconventional monetary conditions shows no sign of ending. If the rich world’s central banks are to get back to the normality they crave, their standard toolkit may not suffice. It is time to think more boldly, especially about the idea of inflation targeting.

That is because the usual relationship between inflation and unemployment appears to have broken down. In the short run, economists think these two variables ought to move in opposite directions. High joblessness should weigh on prices; low unemployment ought to push inflation up, by raising wages. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Janet Yellen: Fed wird Zinsen noch 2015 erhöhen

Posted by hkarner - 25. September 2015

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten  |  |

Die Chefin der Fed, Janet Yellen, will die Zinsen auf jeden Fall noch 2015 erhöhen. EZB-Banker dagegen räumen ein, dass niemand wisse, was nach einer Abkehr von den Niedrigzinsen geschieht – und kündigen an, in der Euro-Zone bei der Politik des billigen Geldes bleiben zu müssen.

Yellen ccDie Chefin der US-Notenbank, Janet Yellen.

Die US-Notenbank (Fed) wird nach Worten von Fed-Chefin Janet Yellen noch in diesem Jahr mit ihren Zinserhöhungen beginnen. Davon gehe sie wie die meisten ihrer Kollegen im für die Zinspolitik zuständigen Fed-Gremium (FOMC) weiterhin aus, sagte Yellen am Donnerstag in einer Rede an der Universität von Massachusetts in Amherst. Voraussetzung sei allerdings, dass die Inflation stabil bleibe und die heimische Wirtschaft stark genug sei, um die Beschäftigung anzukurbeln. Die allgemeinen konjunkturellen Aussichten nannte sie „solide“. Die jüngsten Entwicklungen der Weltwirtschaft und an den Finanzmärkten würden die Politik der Fed wohl nicht maßgeblich bestimmen, ergänzte Yellen.

Aufgrund der langen Phase extrem niedriger Zinsen drohen Zentralbanken weltweit nach Einschätzung von EZB-Chefvolkswirt Peter Praet Probleme bei einer Normalisierung der Sätze. Wenn die Zinsschraube schließlich wieder angezogen werde, dürfte sich dies schwieriger gestalten als zuvor, sagte Praet am Donnerstag vor Teilnehmern einer Konferenz. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why the Fed Buried Monetarism

Posted by hkarner - 23. September 2015

Photo of Anatole KaletskyAnatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0, The Birth of a New Economy, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.

SEP 22, 2015, Project Syndicate

LONDON – The US Federal Reserve’s decision to delay an increase in interest rates should have come as no surprise to anyone who has been paying attention to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s comments. The Fed’s decision merely confirmed that it is not indifferent to international financial stress, and that its risk-management approach remains strongly biased in favor of “lower for longer.” So why did the markets and media behave as if the Fed’s action (or, more precisely, inaction) was unexpected?

What really shocked the markets was not the Fed’s decision to maintain zero interest rates for a few more months, but the statement that accompanied it. The Fed revealed that it was entirely unconcerned about the risks of higher inflation and was eager to push unemployment below what most economists regard as its “natural” rate of around 5%. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Oil prices, inflation expectations, and monetary policy

Posted by hkarner - 17. September 2015

Nathan Sussman, Osnat Zohar 16 September 2015, voxeu

Director of research and a member of the monetary policy committee, Bank of Israel; professor of economics, Hebrew University in Jerusalem

Economist at the Research Department, Bank of Israel

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Inflation, the Fed, and the Big Picture

Posted by hkarner - 4. September 2015

Carmen Reinhart is Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.Reinhart CC

SEP 3, 2015, Project Syndicate

CAMBRIDGE – Inflation – its causes and its connection to monetary policy and financial crises – was the theme of this year’s international conference of central bankers and academics in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. But, while policymakers’ desire to be prepared for potential future risks to price stability is understandable, they did not place these concerns in the context of recent inflation developments at the global level – or within historical perspective.

For the 189 countries for which data are available, median inflation for 2015 is running just below 2%, slightly lower than in 2014 and, in most cases, below the International Monetary Fund’s projections in its April World Economic Outlook. As the figure below shows, inflation in nearly half of all countries (advanced and emerging, large and small) is now at or below 2% (which is how most central bankers define price stability).

image: https://www.project-syndicate.org/flowli/image/reinhart2chart/original/english

Most of the other half are not doing badly, either. In the period following the oil shocks of the 1970s until the early 1980s, almost two-thirds of the countries recorded inflation rates above 10%. According to the latest data, which runs through July or August for most countries, there are “only” 14 cases of high inflation (the red line in the figure). Venezuela (which has not published official inflation statistics this year) and Argentina (which has not released reliable inflation data for several years) figure prominently in this group. Iran, Russia, Syria, Ukraine, and a handful of African countries comprise the rest.

The share of countries recording outright deflation in consumer prices (the green line) is higher in 2015 than that of countries experiencing double-digit inflation (7% of the total). Whatever nasty surprises may lurk in the future, the global inflation environment is the tamest since the early 1960s.

Indeed, the risk for the world economy is actually tilted toward deflation for the 23 advanced economies in the sample, even eight years after the onset of the global financial crisis. For this group, the median inflation rate is 0.2% – the lowest since 1933. The only advanced economy with an inflation rate above 2% is Iceland (where the latest 12-month reading is 2.2%). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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What the general public knows about monetary policy

Posted by hkarner - 23. August 2015

Carin van der Cruijsen, David-Jan Jansen, Jakob de Haan 23 August 2015, voxeu

Head of Research, De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB); Professor of Political Economy, University of Groningen

Researcher at De Nederlandsche Bank

Researcher, De Nederlandsche Bank

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Low inflation in the Eurozone

Posted by hkarner - 16. August 2015

Stefano Neri, Stefano Siviero 15 August 2015, voxeu

Stefano Neri

Unit Head, Monetary Policy Unit, Monetary Analysis Division, Banca d’Italia

Head of the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Directorate, Bank of Italy

Low inflation: An EZ-wide issue

Eurozone inflation fell steadily in 2013 and 2014, reaching negative territory at the end of 2014 – year-on-year inflation was ‐0.2% in December and core inflation hit the historical low at 0.7% in the same month (Figure 1). Inflation fell to historically low levels not only in the countries that had been severely affected by the sovereign debt crisis, but also in those less directly influenced (Figure 2). In December 2014, no country of the Eurozone registered an inflation rate above 1%; in 12 countries out of 18 (Lithuania joined 1 January 2015) consumer price dynamics were negative. Formal econometric analysis confirms that these developments reflected mostly common rather than country-specific shocks (Delle Monache et al 2015). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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