Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Immigration’

Nationalism, Immigration, and Economic Success

Posted by hkarner - 19. Juli 2018

Jason Furman

Jason Furman, Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School and Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, was Chairman of President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers from 2013-2017.

There can be no question that immigration provides a net economic benefit to advanced economies, particularly those experiencing a retirement boom. But as long as anti-immigrant sentiment dictates the political narrative, growth will suffer, and resurgent populist forces will grow stronger.

CAMBRIDGE – One of the central challenges facing the world’s advanced economies is slowing growth. Over the last decade, growth rates in the advanced economies have averaged 1.2%, down from an average of 3.1% during the previous 25 years.

History shows that slower economic growth can make societies less generous, less tolerant, and less inclusive. So, it stands to reason that the past decade of sluggish growth has contributed to the surge of a damaging form of populist nationalism that is taking hold in a growing number of countries. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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First They Came for the Immigrants. Then They Came for the Robots.

Posted by hkarner - 15. Juli 2018

Date: 13-07-2018
Source: FOREIGN POLICY BY BRUCE STOKES

Politicians must prepare voters for automation; otherwise, opportunistic populists will seize the agenda.

The phrase “you ain’t seen nothin’ yet” has been used as the title of several pop songs and a French film. It could also aptly describe the future of politics across the globe as the twin specters of nationalism and populism intensify and people grapple with the social and economic impacts of increased automation and the spread of artificial intelligence.

In key respects, this future has already arrived. In 2016, there were already 309 installed industrial robots for every 10,000 manufacturing workers — a measurement known as robot density — in Germany, 223 in Sweden, and 189 in the United States. The use of robots had risen 7 percent in the United States, 5 percent in Sweden, and 3 percent in Germany in just one year. That may not sound like much, but at that rate, robot density would double in the United States in about a decade. And these numbers are only likely to grow because next-generation robots are already highly cost competitive. The average hourly cost of a manufacturing worker in Germany as of 2013 was $49, in France it was $43, and in the United States $36. The hourly cost of a collaborative robot — a machine that does not require skill to interact with — was $4, according to a recent study by Bain & Company.

That same Bain study estimates that advances in automation could displace up to 25 percent of the U.S. labor force over the next two decades. This would mean nearly 2.5 million Americans would have to find new work each year. By comparison, only 1.2 million Americans were displaced annually in the transition from agriculture to industry in the first part of the 20th century. Estimates for other countries vary widely, but all suggest significant displacement can be anticipated thanks to the rapid adoption of robotics and AI in both the manufacturing sector and, increasingly, the provision of services. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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An American Story

Posted by hkarner - 10. Juli 2018

July 6, 2018

I hope everyone had a happy Fourth of July, whether it was a holiday for you or not. The United States’ birth as an independent nation was, among other things, an economic event that changed history far beyond our borders. We hope and believe it was for the better.

This week will be a shorter-than-usual letter. Between the holiday and a few other surprises that we’re preparing for readers (more on that soon), the next and final installment of the Train Wreck series just wasn’t ready for prime time. Next week, we will look at each part of the series and add up the total global debt. I can tell you, it’s a lot more than you can possibly imagine.

This week, in the spirit of July 4 and Independence Day, I’m going to share the inspirational story of a friend who “Came to America.” But it’s also a teaching moment. I think the story is timely as we reflect on what this country means, to both its residents and the broader world. I hope you enjoy it.

Coming to America

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Europe is moving towards the tough immigration policies of Sebastian Kurz

Posted by hkarner - 8. Juli 2018

Date: 05-07-2018
Source: The Economist: Charlemagne

Austria’s chancellor wants an “axis” against illegal migration

IT WAS all smiles this week as Austria assumed the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union, one of the club’s law-making bodies. But behind the scenes Sebastian Kurz, Austria’s young chancellor, provokes knotted brows. Mr Kurz’s political identity, more than that of most other European leaders, is bound up with illegal immigration. Fans say his tough line, honed as foreign minister during the 2015-16 refugee crisis, blunts the appeal of the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), the junior coalition partner to his centre-right People’s Party. Foes say his shift towards harshness makes it hard to tell the difference between moderates and extremists. “Kurz is on a dangerous course,” said Jean Asselborn, Luxembourg’s foreign minister, this week.

In office for barely six months, Mr Kurz has made his share of enemies. Some detect a whiff of demagoguery. There have been mis-steps: a meeting with the Bavarian government, which raised eyebrows in Berlin; Mr Kurz’s call for a European “axis of the willing” against illegal immigration. Some salty language has surfaced in Austrian documents on the difficulties of integrating men from regions marked by “patriarchal…or backward-looking religious attitudes”. Even central European officials fear the Austrians sometimes go too far. “There’s a naked populism there,” shudders an EU official who has watched Mr Kurz in action.

That seems unfair. The well-coiffed Mr Kurz may have swallowed large parts of the FPÖ’s platform, but he never rails against elites or dabbles in George Soros conspiracy theories. Inside Austria, many see him more as opportunist than grand schemer. “I’m not sure Kurz has a strategy for Europe beyond trying to remain chancellor of Austria,” says Laurenz Ennser-Jedenastik of the University of Vienna. Yet all agree on his remarkably well-tuned political antennae. Mr Kurz detected earlier than his counterparts, such as Angela Merkel in Germany, that illegal immigration demanded a firm response from the mainstream right. “It’s not a question of left or right,” he told Charlemagne this week from his office in Vienna. “It’s just a question of rational politics.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Smart Immigration for Europe

Posted by hkarner - 6. Juli 2018

An essential commentary. Is the only realistic (also economic migration is needed!), but it adds one more dimension of complexity to the problem! (hfk)

Sami Mahroum

Sami Mahroum is Director of the Innovation & Policy Initiative at INSEAD, a member of the WEF Regional Strategy Group for the Middle East and North Africa, and Non-Resident Fellow at The Lisbon Council. He is the author of Black Swan Start-ups: Understanding the Rise of Successful Technology Business in Unlikely Places.

The immigration issue has long been a thorn in the EU’s side, not least because of the fear-mongering and emotional manipulation that have impeded constructive debate. But a new social contract for economic migrants – which protects their rights, while restricting their social privileges – could finally remove the thorn.

PARIS – Immigration-related headlines have become a staple in Europe, whether the story is of an illegal Malian immigrant scaling a Paris building to rescue a toddler or the formation of a populist government in Italy that aims to deport a half-million migrants. And yet, despite the constant coverage of the issue – or, more likely, precisely because of it – the immigration policy debate remains beset by misconceptions and politicization.

In the United Kingdom, the Brexit vote was fueled partly by false and distorted claims, such as that unrestrained migration from the rest of Europe was driving down wages. Since the vote, however, the anti-Brexit camp has engaged in similar distortions, warning that, once it has left the European Union, the UK will face a skills shortage. But plenty of countries – such as Australia, Canada, and Singapore – do just fine without agreements guaranteeing freedom of movement from other countries, by issuing skills-matching visas. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Real Threats to the EU

Posted by hkarner - 3. Juli 2018

Chris Patten, the last British governor of Hong Kong and a former EU commissioner for external affairs, is Chancellor of the University of Oxford.

The European Union must address a slew of challenges – from immigration to eurozone reform – that risk causing systemic problems lethal to the bloc. Given this, sensible leaders can be forgiven for politely sending the UK on its way, and focusing their attention on threats to the EU’s long-term cohesion and fundamental values.

LONDON – In the United Kingdom, Brexit looms large, with everyone from government ministers to tabloid newspapers frothing daily about the deal that will be struck with the European Union and the effects that it will have. But the EU faces too many pressing challenges to be obsessing about Britain.

The UK’s concern is understandable: evidence is mounting of the likely damage a departure from the single market and customs union will do to the UK economy. According to new research from the Centre for European Reform, the UK economy is already 2.1% smaller than it would have been had voters chosen to remain. The hit to public finances totals £440 million ($579 million) per week.

The lack of information about how Brexit will play out has businesses worried. The CEO of Siemens UK, Jürgen Maier, recently urged British leaders to clarify how trade with the EU will work, urging them to ensure that the country remains in the customs union. Airbus has warned that a “no deal” outcome would force it to reassess its long-term position in the country, putting thousands of British jobs at risk. BMW has affirmed its commitment to remaining in the UK, but warned that costs could rise. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italy’s Upstart Parties Set Possible Collision Course With Europe

Posted by hkarner - 19. Mai 2018

Date: 18-05-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The 5 Star Movement and the League seal a coalition agreement that mixes euroskeptic economic policies and billions in tax cuts and spending

Two anti-establishment parties poised to take power in Italy have finalized a coalition agreement that challenges the constraints of the euro, setting up a possible fight with European leaders who only recently steered the common currency through a deep crisis.

The upstart 5 Star Movement and the hard-right League sealed an agreement Friday that seeks to reboot one of Europe’s most troubled economies with a mix of euroskeptic economic policies and tens of billions in tax cuts and stimulus spending.

The would-be coalition partners’ challenge to the European Union on economic policy shows how the bitter legacy of the debt crisis, especially in Southern Europe, continues to fuel antiestablishment politics, in combination with voter anxiety about immigration. A potential confrontation between Italy and the European authorities could revive concerns about the future of the eurozone.

The two parties now must agree on who to seat as the prime minister. Matteo Salvini, the firebrand leader of the League, and Luigi Di Maio, the 31-year-old head of 5 Star, plan to meet with Italian President Sergio Mattarella on Monday to inform him they are ready to form a government. A new government could be in place by the end of next week. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Populism Bites Back

Posted by hkarner - 27. April 2018

Chris Patten, the last British governor of Hong Kong and a former EU commissioner for external affairs, is Chancellor of the University of Oxford.

Political posturing is often expedient. But British Prime Minister Theresa May’s government is now being reminded daily of the far-reaching consequences of staking out positions that lack any meaningful regard for the future.

LONDON – This spring, British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative government is being reminded of just how powerful – and long-lasting – the unintended consequences of policies can be. Two problems concerning the United Kingdom’s borders – one relating to immigration, the other linked to the frontier with the Republic of Ireland – have lately erupted. While they have not yet weakened support for the government, they probably will. And they are almost certain to diminish what is left of Britain’s soft power.

The immigration problem goes back some seven decades, to the arrival of the first waves of Caribbean immigrants in the UK. They had been invited by the government in the wake of World War II to help offset a labor shortage, taking hard-to-fill jobs in the National Health Service (NHS) and other sectors. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Job and Cultural Insecurity, More Than Inequality, Fuels Populism

Posted by hkarner - 22. Februar 2018

Date: 21-02-2018
Source: YaleGlobal

For many workers, insecurity is a more pressing concern than inequality. They worry more about jobs threatened by global trade and automation, their communities’ vanishing way of life, and children’s future than inequality and increasing amounts of wealth controlled by a small percentage of the population. Populist leaders, many wealthy themselves, convince substantial numbers of voters that that the educated, the experts and established political leaders do not care about the plight of ordinary workers. Middle-class liberals may support the causes that benefit the poor or working class, but they can also “insulate themselves with residences in gentrified cities, assortative marriage patterns and cosmopolitan professional occupations,” explains economist Pranab Bardhan. “Sociologists often point out that the part of inequality that is salient to us is the contrast between our own lifestyle – and housing and school choices – and that of those who may be just above us. The inequality with the billionaires is too distant.” Bardhan offers practical proposals – on wage subsidies, global skill partnerships, and trade union and church initiatives – for countering populism and easing the insecurity over culture, immigration and inequality. – YaleGlobal Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Evolution of the Refugee Crisis

Posted by hkarner - 28. Dezember 2017

Erik Berglöf

Erik Berglöf, a former chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, is Professor of Economics and Director at the Institute of Global Affairs, London School of Economics and Political Science.

The 2015 refugee crisis is still a raw issue for millions of Europeans, and continues to serve as fodder for populist and nationalist movements. But, in reality, the situation has started to improve dramatically in many host countries, and it is now incumbent on European leaders to ensure that the trend continues.

LONDON – As they celebrate Christmas, Germans are also remembering the dead from last year’s attack on a Berlin Christmas market by a migrant who had been denied asylum. That incident fanned the flames of public sentiment against immigration, and probably played a role in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s stunning failure to form a new a coalition government after the federal election in September. Within the German electorate, there are widespread fears that another wave of migrants like the influx two years ago will deluge the country.

But the facts on the ground have changed dramatically. On November 15, 2015, a migration command center in the German Foreign Ministry on Werderscher Markt in Berlin was tracking refugee flows at every potential border crossing on the route from Greece to Germany. Eventually, of 12 million displaced Syrians, one million arrived in Europe. And despite a massive response from the German government and members of the public, many asylum-seekers ended up sleeping on the streets and in railway stations. At the time, there were rumors of a migrant-fueled crime wave sweeping the country, though later research found little increase in crime along migration routes. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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