Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘IIF’

How to stop governments borrowing behind their people’s backs

Posted by hkarner - 15. Juni 2019

Date: 13-06-2019
Source: The Economist

Principles on debt transparency endorsed at a G20 summit may help

In 2016 the government of Mozambique confessed to secret debts of $1.4bn, or 11% of gdp, mostly as loan guarantees for state-backed companies. Growth faltered, the currency slumped and foreign donors pulled back. The results have been “devastating”, says Denise Namburete, a civil-society activist, describing health centres that have gone two years without medicines. American prosecutors are pursuing eight people involved in the scandal, including three foreign bankers and a former finance minister, on charges of money-laundering and fraud.

The Mozambique case may be unusual—or not. Even the imf is scratching its head about how much governments truly owe. In some places the mystery is loans from China and other emerging lenders. In others it is advance payments from oil traders, liabilities from public-private partnerships or hidden loans from commercial banks. The Institute of International Finance (iif), a group of banks and financial institutions, has responded to mounting concern by drafting principles on debt transparency. Finance ministers of g20 countries endorsed them at a summit in Fukuoka, in Japan, on June 8th-9th. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Schuldenmonitor: Weltweite Schulden klettern auf 244 Billionen Dollar

Posted by hkarner - 17. Januar 2019

Die Wirtschaft wächst weltweit – und die Schulden wachsen kräftig mit: Sie entsprechen 318 Prozent der Wirtschaftsleistung von Privathaushalten, Unternehmen und dem öffentlichen Sektor.

Dienstag, 15.01.2019 21:10 Uhr, Spiegel.online

Es ist ein schwindelerregender Wert: Die weltweiten Schulden betragen 244 Billionen Dollar. Das sind 318 Prozent der gesamten Wirtschaftsleistung, wie der am Dienstag veröffentlichte Schuldenmonitor des Institute of International Finance in Washington vorrechnet. Es handelt sich um die addierten Schulden von Privathaushalten, Unternehmen sowie der öffentlichen Hand in aller Welt im dritten Quartal 2018.
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Der Wert ist dank eines robusten Wachstums nicht ganz so hoch wie der bisherige Rekord im Herbst 2016, als die Quote 320 Prozent betrug. Der absolute Schuldenstand ist jedoch seit 2016 nochmals um zwölf Prozent auf den schwindelerregenden Wert von 244 Billionen Dollar geklettert. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Weltweiter Schuldenberg wuchs 2016 um 7,6 Billionen Dollar

Posted by hkarner - 4. April 2017

4. April 2017, 10:04 derstandard.at

Der Schuldenstand stieg auf 215 Billionen Dollar, einen besonders starken Anstieg sehen die Schwellenländer

Washington – Der weltweite Schuldenberg ist einer Studie zufolge im vergangenen Jahr gewachsen. Er erhöhte sich um 7,6 Billionen (3,5 %)  auf 215 Billionen US-Dollar (202 Billionen Euro), wie das Institute for International Finance (IIF) – der weltweite Verband der Finanzbranche – am Montagabend in Washington mitteilte. Für all jene, die sich unter einer Billion wenig vorstellen können: Das ist eine Eins mit zwölf Nullen. Um 202 Billionen könnte man in Österreich derzeit 10,31 Milliarden VW-Golfs (Modell Trendline, Listenpreis 19.590 Euro) kaufen (die Lagervorräte dürften allerdings nicht groß genug sein). Würde man diese übereinanderstapeln (was statisch zweifelsohne eine Herausforderung wäre), könnte man 40 Türme bauen, die alle bis zum Mond reichen – freilich stimmt die Rechnung nur, wenn man verhindern könnte, dass die Autos eingedrückt werden. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Warnings mount on world’s corporate debt, China crisis

Posted by hkarner - 9. Mai 2016

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph, 6 May 2016 • 2:49pmAmbroseEvans-Pritc_1805020a

Corporate debt has reached extreme levels across much of the world and now far exceeds the pre-Lehman financial bubble by a host of measures, the global banking watchdog has warned in a deeply-disturbing report.

“As the credit cycle ages, following years of record-setting bond issuance, there are growing concerns about signs of stress in corporate balance sheets,” said the Institute of International Finance in Washington.

The body flagged a double threat: a five-fold rise in company debt to $25 trillion in emerging markets over the past decade; and record junk bond issuance in US and Europe, along with shockingly-irresponsible levels of US borrowing to buy back shares and pay dividends.

The warning came as the Hong Kong Monetary Authority aired its own grim concerns that the global system is dangerously over-stretched after years of easy money, with Asia’s entire financial edifice potentially in danger. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Causes of the G7 fixed investment doldrums

Posted by hkarner - 28. November 2014

Kristina Morkunaite, Felix Huefner 27 November 2014, voxeu

Investment has been disappointing in recent years

Growth in mature economies has consistently disappointed in the years following the Global Crisis, and forecasts are regularly being revised downwards – just recently again by the IMF. An important part of the sluggish recovery in mature economies has been weak fixed investment. Total investment relative to GDP in the G7 economies stood at 19.3% in 2013 – a decline of 2.6 percentage points relative to 2007. Part of this weakness in investment can be explained by a fall in residential investment after the bursting of the housing bubble in several G7 countries, and also curtailed public investment spending due to fiscal consolidation efforts. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Global Deposit Confiscation Called For By Influential CEO Of Italy’s Largest Bank

Posted by hkarner - 5. April 2013

Zero Hedge, 5/4

Markets and many experts remain in complete denial about the ramifications of the EU, IMF, ECB deposit confiscation in Cyprus. The mantra is that Cyprus is different and unique. This is the same complacent and irresponsible mantra that was heard when the subprime crisis in the U.S. reared its ugly head and when Greece began to implode in 2009.

The CEO of Unicredit Federico Ghizzoni said yesterday that it is “acceptable to confiscate savings to save banks.” He said that the savings which are not guaranteed by any protection or insurance could be used in the future to contribute to the rescue of banks who fail and that uninsured deposits could be used in future bank failures provided global policy makers agree on a common approach.

He called for “a common solution in Europe” saying that the “EU should pass laws identical and shared in different member states”. Indeed he went a step further and called for a global coordination of deposit confiscations to rescue failing banks.

Including deposits “is acceptable if it becomes a European solution,” said Ghizzoni, 57.

“What we cannot accept is differentiation country by country inside the same area. I would strongly suggest to make this decision not only within Europe but within the Basel Committee, where all countries are represented. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Insight: How the Greek debt puzzle was solved

Posted by hkarner - 29. Februar 2012

Date: 29-02-2012
Source: Reuters

Wolfgang Schaeuble was playing Sudoku on his iPad as he waited to hear whether Greece’s negotiating team had persuaded private creditors to accept a bigger loss on their Greek bonds.

Germany’s finance minister needed this last piece of the debt restructuring puzzle to fall into place. Without the private creditors – banks, insurers and investment funds – a 130 billion euro deal to save Greece from default could fall apart. The consequences for the euro area would be catastrophic.

Schaeuble finally got what he wanted only hours before dawn on February 21 after negotiations that ran all night. What emerged was the world’s biggest debt restructuring deal, affecting some 206 billion euros of Greek government bonds, according to law firm Linklaters which acted as adviser. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe Reaches a Greek Deal

Posted by hkarner - 21. Februar 2012

Date: 21-02-2012
Source: The Wall Street Journal

New Bailout Set as Debt Deadline Looms; Private Creditors Take Deeper Losses

BRUSSELS—Greece ended months of uncertainty by finally securing a new bailout and debt-restructuring agreement with euro-zone finance ministers, but doubts remain over whether Greece will be able to meet the ambitious terms of the accord.

The finance ministers agreed on the long-awaited €130 billion ($171.9 billion) deal after haggling into the early hours of Tuesday morning to settle the final details.

Officials said the meeting, which lasted nearly 13 hours, produced a plan that would reduce Greece’s debt to 120.5% of gross domestic product by 2020. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said that target was lowered from 129% at the start of the meeting.

Private-sector creditors agreed to take a write-down on their bonds of 53.5%—more than the 50% write-down that had been conceded before the meeting. The private-debt exchange is expected to cut Greece’s debt by €107 billion, according to the Institute of International Finance, which negotiated on behalf of bondholders. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Schuldenschnitt: Und bist Du nicht willig, so brauch ich Gewalt

Posted by hkarner - 15. Februar 2012

von Sven Afhüppe, Nicole Bastian und Norbert Häring, Handelsblatt.com, 14/2

70 Prozent der Forderungen sollen private Gläubiger beim Schuldenschnitt aufgeben. Eine große freiwillige Beteiligung sehen Notenbanker aber nicht – und erwarten eine Verpflichtung für alle. Mit unkalkulierbaren Folgen.

Die Rettungsaktionen für Griechenland geraten zur Farce. Quelle: dpa

Die Rettungsaktionen für Griechenland geraten zur Farce. Quelle: dpa

 Voraussichtlich wird die nach monatelangem Ringen erzielte Vereinbarung zwischen den privaten Gläubigern und der griechischen Regierung über einen „freiwilligen“ Forderungsverzicht zwar am Mittwoch nach dem Treffen der Euro-Gruppe verkündet. Klar scheint aber schon jetzt, dass der Schuldenschnitt in Höhe von rund 70 Prozent nicht tragfähig sein wird. Notenbankkreise erwarten nicht mehr, dass sich genügend Besitzer griechischer Staatsanleihen der freiwilligen Vereinbarung über einen Forderungsverzicht anschließen werden. Bei zu geringer Beteiligung aber würde die angestrebte Schuldenerleichterung für Griechenland von gut 100 Milliarden Euro nicht erreicht.

Deshalb gehen Notenbankkreise davon aus, dass Griechenland per Gesetz die Anleihebedingungen ändert. So würde eine Verzichtsvereinbarung für alle Anleihebesitzer verbindlich, sobald 50 Prozent der Anleihegläubiger dafür stimmen. Das würde auch Kleininvestoren und Hedge-Fonds einschließen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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On Greece, Growth, and Downgrades

Posted by hkarner - 29. Januar 2012

Man beachte: Das Peterson Institute wurde diese Woche als der beste Think Tank für internationale Wirtschaftsfragen bestimmt: http://www.gotothinktank.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/2011-Global-Go-To-Think-Tanks-Report.pdf. Und von dieser Qualität ist auch der Beitrag (hfk).

Author: Jacob Funk Kirkegaard · January 27th, 2012 · Peterson Institute

Events remain unsettled in the euro area in 2012 in spite of some recent progress toward stabilizing the fiscal and financial outlook. To begin with, negotiations between the Greek government and private creditors represented by the Institute for International Finance (IIF) have been suspended as they enter the final critical phase, with each side considering their final “red lines” before the EU Summit on January 30, 2012.

The Struggle over Debt Restructuring

As always in such negotiations, the impasse is over who gets stuck with a bill that keeps getting bigger as the Greek domestic economy deteriorates. Last October, it was evident that the first 20 percent debt write-down negotiated the previous July would not deliver debt sustainability for Greece. Accordingly, the haircut on the debt principal was raised to 50 percent. Today, it seems obvious that while the 50 percent reduction in debt principal remains sacrosanct, the reduction in the net present value (NPV) of privately owned Greek debt will have to exceed 50 percent if Greece is to achieve debt sustainability. Moreover, private investors must participate in the “voluntary bond swap” at essentially 100 percent to reach that goal, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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