Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Guriev’

Inclusive Growth or Else

Posted by hkarner - 6. Februar 2018

Sergei Guriev

Sergei Guriev is Chief Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Danny Leipziger, Professor of International Business at George Washington University and Managing Director of the Growth Dialogue, was a vice president of the World Bank and served as Vice Chair of the Spence Commission on Growth and Development.

Jonathan Ostry is Deputy Director of the IMF’s Research Department.

The decision to place inequality at the center of the discussion at Davos this year was a promising development. But actual solutions remain undeveloped, and concern about widening economic disparities within many countries remains inadequate, which must change if the current global economic recovery is to continue.

LONDON/WASHINGTON, DC – At this year’s World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland, participants did not question the basic building blocks of growth in today’s global economy: free markets, good governance, and investment in human capital and infrastructure. But they did criticize how unfairly the benefits of growth are being distributed. Rightly so: without a strong policy response aimed at building a more inclusive growth model, rising populism and economic nationalism will impair the functioning of markets and overall macroeconomic stability – potentially cutting short the current global recovery. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A New Growth Model for Europe’s Neighborhood

Posted by hkarner - 19. Dezember 2017

Sergei Guriev is Chief Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

Countries in Europe and its broader neighborhood cannot base long-term growth on their low-wage comparative advantage. Instead, they must lay the foundations of future-oriented growth models, including by improving governance, investing in infrastructure, and promoting environmental sustainability.

LONDON – More than ten years after the global financial crisis, the world economy is finally enjoying a broad-based recovery. Europe and its broader neighborhood are no exception: economic growth in almost every country in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa, as well as in Russia and Turkey, has accelerated in the last year, and is projected to remain robust. Yet new challenges loom. If not addressed, these regions’ prospects will dim.

As the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s new Transition Report shows, before the Great Recession, the countries of Europe and its broader neighborhood were outperforming comparable emerging economies elsewhere. In recent years, however, the tables have turned – and the gap is growing. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Art of European Integration

Posted by hkarner - 7. Februar 2017

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The Pitfalls of Strongman Populism

Posted by hkarner - 7. Januar 2017

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Six questions about China’s rise from 1953

Posted by hkarner - 3. September 2015

Anton Cheremukhin, Mikhail Golosov, Sergei Guriev, Aleh Tsyvinski 02 September 2015, voxeu

Research Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Professor of Economics, Princeton University

Professor of Economics, Sciences Po Paris; and CEPR Research Fellow

Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics, Yale University

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Putin’s Dilemma

Posted by hkarner - 12. August 2014

Date: 12-08-2014
Source: Project Syndicate
Guriev
SERGEI GURIEV

Sergei Guriev, a visiting professor of economics at Sciences Po, is Professor of Economics and former Rector at the New Economic School in Moscow.

PARIS – Many critics argue that the sanctions imposed on Russia for its actions in Ukraine are ineffective, because they are too limited in scale and scope. Moreover, sanctions are seen as allowing President Vladimir Putin to blame the West for Russia’s internal problems. Indeed, some of Putin’s supporters within Russia welcome the sanctions as a means to compel Russian autarky – and thus strategic independence from the West.

These arguments are wrong. Though the sanctions are not backed by China, they are already having a powerful effect, and the expectation that they will be tightened further is a huge concern for investors and the Russian government. Full autarky, meanwhile, would imply a dramatic decline in Russian living standards – the foundation of Putin’s domestic support.

The latest sanctions are unprecedented. The European Union went even further than the United States. Exposure to Russian markets varies widely among EU countries – and between the EU and the US. But, after the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, Russia can no longer pursue a divide-and-rule strategy that leverages these differences.
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Russia’s New Stagnation

Posted by hkarner - 17. November 2013

Date: 15-11-2013Guriev
Source: Project Syndicate

SERGEI GURIEV

Sergei Guriev, a visiting professor of economics at Sciences Po, is Professor of Economics and former Rector at the New Economic School in Moscow.

PARIS – In early November, the Russian government released its latest macroeconomic forecast. It could not have been an easy decision: Whereas President Vladimir Putin and his government campaigned in 2012 on a promise that the Russian economy would grow at 5-6% per year during his six-year term, the growth rate is now expected to average just 2.8% from 2013 to 2020.

Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukaev explicitly acknowledged that achieving the targets set by Putin “will take longer.” In some cases, that means much longer. For example, in May 2012, Putin promised to increase Russia’s labor productivity by 50% by 2018; the current forecast does not envision this outcome even by 2025.

For independent observers, the ministry’s grim forecast comes as no surprise. Judging by low stock prices and high capital outflows, investors were already betting against high growth rates. Now Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev are pessimistic as well. Medvedev, who had been publicly forecasting 5% annual growth as recently as January, told foreign investors in October that this year’s growth rate would not exceed 2%. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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