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Posts Tagged ‘Gros’

Will Eurozone Policymakers Take the Long View?

Posted by hkarner - 8. Januar 2020

Daniel Gros is Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies.

The 2010s were an exceptional decade that called for unprecedented economic policies. Now, however, the eurozone’s fiscal and monetary policymakers must think more long-term and accept that continued stimulus measures are unlikely to offset the effects of Europe’s demographic decline.

BRUSSELS – The beginning of a new year, and the start of a new decade, is a good time for longer-term reflection on economic policy. In the 2010s, a decade dominated by the aftermath of a once-in-a-lifetime financial crisis, a strong monetary and fiscal stimulus was clearly justified. In fact, there is now general agreement that large fiscal expansions by governments almost everywhere, followed by unconventional monetary policies, were instrumental in preventing the Great Recession from turning into a repeat of the Great Depression of the 1930s.

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The Siren Song of Strategic Autonomy

Posted by hkarner - 9. November 2019

Daniel Gros is Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies.

A recent report by the European Commission’s in-house think tank has called for Europe to aim for more “strategic autonomy.” But what may seem like an innocuous goal could easily take an economic-nationalist turn, with serious implications for world trade and the global economy.

BRUSSELS – For over a year, US President Donald Trump’s protectionist war against China – and his broader use of import tariffs to advance geopolitical objectives – has been fueling anxiety about the future of world trade. But tariffs are only the tip of the iceberg of economic nationalism. If the world doesn’t navigate carefully, hidden hazards could sink the global trading system.

The United States has not found any followers in its aggressive use of tariffs. In developing countries, there is little pressure to implement similar measures, because so many firms manufacture globally, and even those that do not depend on global supply chains. And in developed economies, major sectors that struggled to cope with import competition in the past – such as the clothing and steel industries – have by now mostly adjusted, and no longer play an important role. This explains why US business leaders largely opposed Trump’s tariffs. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Eurozone’s 2% Fixation

Posted by hkarner - 8. Oktober 2019

Daniel Gros is Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies.

The European Central Bank’s inflation target of “below, but close to, 2%” currently dominates economic policymaking in the eurozone. Moreover, the idea that this target supersedes the bloc’s fiscal rules seems to be gaining ground – with potentially worrying implications for financial stability.

BRUSSELS – Economic policy discussions in Europe used to be dominated by the number three, namely the 3%-of-GDP upper limit on national fiscal deficits. Although the fiscal rules enshrined in the Maastricht Treaty were in fact much more complex, public debate tended to focus on the 3% figure, especially when deficits ballooned during the euro crisis nearly a decade ago.

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The Real Cost of Trump’s Trade Wars

Posted by hkarner - 7. August 2019

Daniel Gros is Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies.

Economic analysis suggests that bilateral trade wars are unwinnable in an interconnected world. By firing his latest tariff salvo against China, US President Donald Trump has further raised the stakes in an increasingly damaging dispute – and America is likely to emerge as the bigger loser.

BRUSSELS – For a while at least, trade tensions between the United States and China seemed to have settled into a “new normal.” After both countries imposed high tariffs on a substantial proportion of each other’s goods, US President Donald Trump refrained from further escalation. But, following another inconclusive round of bilateral trade talks in Shanghai last week, Trump announced that the US will impose 10% tariffs on a further $300 billion worth of Chinese goods, effective September 1.

Should this new measure take effect, almost all US imports from China will be subject to tariffs. (The US already levies 25% tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports.) Although the US has also imposed non-tariff barriers in its trade war with China, reciprocal tariffs are the most visible component of the dispute – and are likely to hurt America more than China. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europas 5G-Weckruf

Posted by hkarner - 10. Juli 2019

Daniel Gros is Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies

BRÜSSEL – Wie sich die Zeiten ändern. Vor nicht allzu langer Zeit waren die 4G-Mobilfunknetze mit ihrem Versprechen von massiven Datenübertragungen und billigen Sprachanrufen der nächste große Schritt in der Telekommunikation. Jetzt kommt 5G, das dank seiner höheren Geschwindigkeit (200-mal schneller als 4G), des schnelleren Datentransfers aus drahtlosen Breitbandnetzen und vor allem der Möglichkeit, cyberphysikalische Objekte im Internet der Dinge zu verbinden, potenziell alle möglichen neuen digitalen Innovationen anregen wird. Darüber hinaus wird erwartet, dass 5G die wesentlich schnelleren Reaktionszeiten ermöglicht, die für autonomes Fahren, fortschrittliche Fabrikautomatisierung, Smart Cities, E-Health und viele andere Anwendungen erforderlich sind.

Aber es gibt noch einen weiteren wesentlichen Unterschied. Während der Kampf um 4G im Wesentlichen kommerziell war und sich auf die Schaffung von Arbeitsplätzen und die Generierung von Gewinnen konzentrierte, dreht sich die aktuelle 5G-Debatte um Geopolitik, Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Parliament is Born

Posted by hkarner - 6. Juni 2019

Daniel Gros is Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies.

With the latest election, the European Parliament seems to have taken a small but important step toward becoming a true expression of Europeans’ popular will. While many issues are still decided in the European Council, the balance of authority between European and national leaders now seems to be less lopsided.

BRUSSELS – European Parliament elections used to be a boring affair, forsaken by voters and barely noticed by the media. But the latest election, held in the last weekend of May, broke the mold, capturing attention as it confounded expectations.

Voter turnout, which had been declining since the first European Parliament election in 1979, increased sharply this time, reaching just over 50%. That is not only the highest turnout for a European Parliament election in 20 years, it is also higher than the 40-50% typical of a mid-term congressional election in the United States. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Keine Angst vor den Euroskeptikern

Posted by hkarner - 10. Mai 2019

Daniel Gros is Director of the Center for European Policy Studies.

BRÜSSEL – Die meisten Meinungsumfragen prognostizieren für die anstehenden Europawahlen ein starkes Abschneiden von Parteien, die sich selbst – in unterschiedlichem Maße – als euroskeptisch bezeichnen. Doch spiegelt der wahrscheinliche Erfolg dieser Parteien eine nicht überraschende Gegenreaktion auf die europäische Integration der jüngsten Zeit wider und keinen Widerstand gegen die Europäische Union selbst.

Schließlich sind euroskeptische oder „eurofeindliche“ Parteien nichts Neues. Sie waren auch 1979 im ersten direkt gewählten Europäischen Parlament, als die EU noch als Europäische Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft (EWG) – oder als „gemeinsamer Markt“ – bekannt war und aus lediglich neun Mitgliedstaaten bestand, stark vertreten.Die EWG war nicht nur deutlich kleiner als die heutige EU mit ihren 28 Mitgliedstaaten, sondern tat auch viel weniger. Selbst ihre Bezeichnung als gemeinsamer Markt scheint heute übertrieben, weil die Mitgliedstaaten lediglich einer Zollunion mit gemeinsamen Außenzöllen und gemeinsamer externer Handelspolitik zugestimmt hatten. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Mirage of a Global Euro

Posted by hkarner - 7. Februar 2019

Daniel Gros is Director of the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, and served as an economic adviser to the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the French prime minister and finance minister. He is the editor of Economie Internationale and International Finance.

When the euro was introduced a generation ago, European leaders envisaged a common currency that would come to rival the US dollar as a second global reserve currency. That hope has failed to materialize – an outcome that European leaders would be wise to welcome.

BRUSSELS – One of the great claims made for the euro was that it would rival the US dollar as a second global reserve currency. These hopes have failed to materialize. The euro’s importance in global reserves and financial markets today is about the same as it was two decades ago, when the euro replaced the Deutsche Mark and ten other national currencies.

But hope dies last, and in this spirit the European Commission recently published a Communication entitled “Towards a stronger international role of the euro” (sic). The European Commission, like most European policymakers, takes it as given that the eurozone would benefit if the euro played a more global role. But that is not necessarily true. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Euro Turns 20

Posted by hkarner - 8. Januar 2019

Daniel Gros is Director of the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, and served as an economic adviser to the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the French prime minister and finance minister. He is the editor of Economie Internationale and International Finance.

The euro’s first 20 years played out very differently than many expected, highlighting the importance of recognizing that the future is likely to be different from the past. Given this, only a commitment to flexibility and a willingness to rise to new challenges will ensure the common currency’s continued success.

BRUSSELS – Twenty years ago this month, the euro was born. For ordinary citizens, little changed until cash euros were introduced in 2002. But in January 1999, the “third stage” of Economic and Monetary Union officially started, with the exchange rates among the original 11 eurozone member states “irrevocably” fixed, and authority over their monetary policy transferred to the new European Central Bank. What has unfolded since then holds important lessons for the future.

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Sind Chinas Handelspraktiken wirklich unfair?

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2018

Daniel Gros is Director of the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, and served as an economic adviser to the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the French prime minister and finance minister. He is the editor of Economie Internationale and International Finance.

BRÜSSEL – Der zeitweise Waffenstillstand zwischen US-Präsident Donald Trump und seinem chinesischen Amtskollegen Xi Jinping beim gerade abgeschlossenen G20-Treffen in Buenos Aires wird beiden Seiten etwas Zeit geben, um über die betreffenden Themen nachzudenken. Und das grundlegendste dieser Themen ist die Frage, ob die amerikanischen Vorwürfe gegenüber China – die auch von vielen anderen Industrieländern geteilt werden – eigentlich gerechtfertigt sind.

Natürlich sind unilaterale US-Maßnahmen im Rahmen der weltweiten Handelsregeln nicht vertretbar. Haben die Industrieländer – die bereits eine informelle Kontaktgruppe von „Chinaverlierern“ gegründet haben, zu der auch Vertreter der Europäischen Union, Japans und der Vereinigten Staaten gehören – aber recht damit, dass Chinas Handelspraktiken teilweise unfair waren, könnten Gegenmaßnahmen durchaus berechtigt sein. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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