Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Posts Tagged ‘Gros’

The Real Cost of Trump’s Trade Wars

Posted by hkarner - 7. August 2019

Daniel Gros is Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies.

Economic analysis suggests that bilateral trade wars are unwinnable in an interconnected world. By firing his latest tariff salvo against China, US President Donald Trump has further raised the stakes in an increasingly damaging dispute – and America is likely to emerge as the bigger loser.

BRUSSELS – For a while at least, trade tensions between the United States and China seemed to have settled into a “new normal.” After both countries imposed high tariffs on a substantial proportion of each other’s goods, US President Donald Trump refrained from further escalation. But, following another inconclusive round of bilateral trade talks in Shanghai last week, Trump announced that the US will impose 10% tariffs on a further $300 billion worth of Chinese goods, effective September 1.

Should this new measure take effect, almost all US imports from China will be subject to tariffs. (The US already levies 25% tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports.) Although the US has also imposed non-tariff barriers in its trade war with China, reciprocal tariffs are the most visible component of the dispute – and are likely to hurt America more than China. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europas 5G-Weckruf

Posted by hkarner - 10. Juli 2019

Daniel Gros is Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies

BRÜSSEL – Wie sich die Zeiten ändern. Vor nicht allzu langer Zeit waren die 4G-Mobilfunknetze mit ihrem Versprechen von massiven Datenübertragungen und billigen Sprachanrufen der nächste große Schritt in der Telekommunikation. Jetzt kommt 5G, das dank seiner höheren Geschwindigkeit (200-mal schneller als 4G), des schnelleren Datentransfers aus drahtlosen Breitbandnetzen und vor allem der Möglichkeit, cyberphysikalische Objekte im Internet der Dinge zu verbinden, potenziell alle möglichen neuen digitalen Innovationen anregen wird. Darüber hinaus wird erwartet, dass 5G die wesentlich schnelleren Reaktionszeiten ermöglicht, die für autonomes Fahren, fortschrittliche Fabrikautomatisierung, Smart Cities, E-Health und viele andere Anwendungen erforderlich sind.

Aber es gibt noch einen weiteren wesentlichen Unterschied. Während der Kampf um 4G im Wesentlichen kommerziell war und sich auf die Schaffung von Arbeitsplätzen und die Generierung von Gewinnen konzentrierte, dreht sich die aktuelle 5G-Debatte um Geopolitik, Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Parliament is Born

Posted by hkarner - 6. Juni 2019

Daniel Gros is Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies.

With the latest election, the European Parliament seems to have taken a small but important step toward becoming a true expression of Europeans’ popular will. While many issues are still decided in the European Council, the balance of authority between European and national leaders now seems to be less lopsided.

BRUSSELS – European Parliament elections used to be a boring affair, forsaken by voters and barely noticed by the media. But the latest election, held in the last weekend of May, broke the mold, capturing attention as it confounded expectations.

Voter turnout, which had been declining since the first European Parliament election in 1979, increased sharply this time, reaching just over 50%. That is not only the highest turnout for a European Parliament election in 20 years, it is also higher than the 40-50% typical of a mid-term congressional election in the United States. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Keine Angst vor den Euroskeptikern

Posted by hkarner - 10. Mai 2019

Daniel Gros is Director of the Center for European Policy Studies.

BRÜSSEL – Die meisten Meinungsumfragen prognostizieren für die anstehenden Europawahlen ein starkes Abschneiden von Parteien, die sich selbst – in unterschiedlichem Maße – als euroskeptisch bezeichnen. Doch spiegelt der wahrscheinliche Erfolg dieser Parteien eine nicht überraschende Gegenreaktion auf die europäische Integration der jüngsten Zeit wider und keinen Widerstand gegen die Europäische Union selbst.

Schließlich sind euroskeptische oder „eurofeindliche“ Parteien nichts Neues. Sie waren auch 1979 im ersten direkt gewählten Europäischen Parlament, als die EU noch als Europäische Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft (EWG) – oder als „gemeinsamer Markt“ – bekannt war und aus lediglich neun Mitgliedstaaten bestand, stark vertreten.Die EWG war nicht nur deutlich kleiner als die heutige EU mit ihren 28 Mitgliedstaaten, sondern tat auch viel weniger. Selbst ihre Bezeichnung als gemeinsamer Markt scheint heute übertrieben, weil die Mitgliedstaaten lediglich einer Zollunion mit gemeinsamen Außenzöllen und gemeinsamer externer Handelspolitik zugestimmt hatten. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Mirage of a Global Euro

Posted by hkarner - 7. Februar 2019

Daniel Gros is Director of the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, and served as an economic adviser to the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the French prime minister and finance minister. He is the editor of Economie Internationale and International Finance.

When the euro was introduced a generation ago, European leaders envisaged a common currency that would come to rival the US dollar as a second global reserve currency. That hope has failed to materialize – an outcome that European leaders would be wise to welcome.

BRUSSELS – One of the great claims made for the euro was that it would rival the US dollar as a second global reserve currency. These hopes have failed to materialize. The euro’s importance in global reserves and financial markets today is about the same as it was two decades ago, when the euro replaced the Deutsche Mark and ten other national currencies.

But hope dies last, and in this spirit the European Commission recently published a Communication entitled “Towards a stronger international role of the euro” (sic). The European Commission, like most European policymakers, takes it as given that the eurozone would benefit if the euro played a more global role. But that is not necessarily true. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Euro Turns 20

Posted by hkarner - 8. Januar 2019

Daniel Gros is Director of the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, and served as an economic adviser to the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the French prime minister and finance minister. He is the editor of Economie Internationale and International Finance.

The euro’s first 20 years played out very differently than many expected, highlighting the importance of recognizing that the future is likely to be different from the past. Given this, only a commitment to flexibility and a willingness to rise to new challenges will ensure the common currency’s continued success.

BRUSSELS – Twenty years ago this month, the euro was born. For ordinary citizens, little changed until cash euros were introduced in 2002. But in January 1999, the “third stage” of Economic and Monetary Union officially started, with the exchange rates among the original 11 eurozone member states “irrevocably” fixed, and authority over their monetary policy transferred to the new European Central Bank. What has unfolded since then holds important lessons for the future.

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Sind Chinas Handelspraktiken wirklich unfair?

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2018

Daniel Gros is Director of the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, and served as an economic adviser to the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the French prime minister and finance minister. He is the editor of Economie Internationale and International Finance.

BRÜSSEL – Der zeitweise Waffenstillstand zwischen US-Präsident Donald Trump und seinem chinesischen Amtskollegen Xi Jinping beim gerade abgeschlossenen G20-Treffen in Buenos Aires wird beiden Seiten etwas Zeit geben, um über die betreffenden Themen nachzudenken. Und das grundlegendste dieser Themen ist die Frage, ob die amerikanischen Vorwürfe gegenüber China – die auch von vielen anderen Industrieländern geteilt werden – eigentlich gerechtfertigt sind.

Natürlich sind unilaterale US-Maßnahmen im Rahmen der weltweiten Handelsregeln nicht vertretbar. Haben die Industrieländer – die bereits eine informelle Kontaktgruppe von „Chinaverlierern“ gegründet haben, zu der auch Vertreter der Europäischen Union, Japans und der Vereinigten Staaten gehören – aber recht damit, dass Chinas Handelspraktiken teilweise unfair waren, könnten Gegenmaßnahmen durchaus berechtigt sein. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Sex and Populism

Posted by hkarner - 6. September 2018

Daniel Gros is Director of the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, and served as an economic adviser to the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the French prime minister and finance minister. He is the editor of Economie Internationale and International Finance.

Even as the flow of refugees into Europe dwindles, anti-immigrant sentiment continues to rise, and is now being expressed violently in some areas. Economic factors probably play an important role, but to understand opposition to immigration also requires taking evolutionary psychology into account.

BRUSSELS – The rate at which migrants are arriving has diminished considerably almost everywhere in Europe since the huge inflows seen in 2015. Yet migration continues to dominate political debate throughout the European Union. This suggests that populist, anti-immigrant sentiment is not actually being driven by claims that mainstream politicians cannot defend Europe’s frontiers.

The decline in new arrivals to Europe began well before anti-immigrant political leaders took power in Italy or immigration pressure nearly toppled Germany’s ruling coalition. It is largely the result of EU efforts, such as the agreement with Turkey to prevent Syrians from crossing into Greece, its cooperation with Libyan militias, and the massive pressure it has placed on the Sahara transit states to close their borders. Thanks to these measures, Europe has become a de facto fortress against migration.

So why does immigration remain at the top of many Europeans’ minds? The answer could be economic: those who arrived in 2015-2016 have already created labor-market imbalances, with low-skill immigrants increasingly competing for jobs with low-skill citizens. And it is true that in most of Europe, hostility toward foreigners runs deepest among low-skill workers. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe’s Trade Coup

Posted by hkarner - 8. August 2018

Daniel Gros is Director of the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, and served as an economic adviser to the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the French prime minister and finance minister. He is the editor of Economie Internationale and International Finance.

At the core of the recent US-EU trade agreement is the understanding that the two sides will “work together“ toward zero tariffs and non-tariff barriers. But the potential for a free-trade deal isn’t the point; the end to the escalation of tit-for-tat tariffs is what matters – and not just to the US and Europe.

BRUSSELS – All has gone quiet on the transatlantic trade front, with last month’s agreement between US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker having dispelled fears of an all-out tariff war. The deal was surprising, but perhaps it shouldn’t have been.

At the core of the agreement concluded by Juncker and Trump was the understanding that the European Union and the United States will “work together toward zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers, and zero subsidies on non-auto industrial goods,” with no new trade barriers in the meantime. But the potential for a free-trade agreement isn’t the point; what matters is the end to the escalation of tit-for-tat measures, set in motion by Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on US imports of European steel. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump’s Shot Heard Round the Foot

Posted by hkarner - 6. Juni 2018

Daniel Gros is Director of the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, and served as an economic adviser to the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the French prime minister and finance minister. He is the editor of Economie Internationale and International Finance.

The imposition of steel tariffs on European producers was an unprovoked attack, to which the EU has vowed to retaliate. But instead of engaging in a costly strategy of escalation with their biggest trading partner, Europe’s leaders should swallow their pride and indulge its president’s insistence on running the US economy into the ground.

BRUSSELS – The first salvo in the transatlantic trade war has now been fired by the United States, which is imposing stinging tariffs on steel imports from the European Union (as well as from Canada and Mexico). It was an unprovoked attack, to which the European Union has vowed to retaliate. Moreover, US President Donald Trump has announced an investigation into whether car imports threaten national security. Any tit-for-tat response could thus quickly escalate from steel to the automotive industry, which is vital for Europe.

Unfortunately, it seems that emotions and short-term political posturing, rather than economic logic, is dictating the EU’s reaction. For starters, there is a key inconsistency in the discourse of the EU (and other US trading partners). The EU argues that tariffs on steel imports mainly hurt the US itself, and most economists would agree. But this also implies that counter-measures taken by the EU will mainly hurt Europe. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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