Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Gold’

Which Way to Buy Gold: The Metal or the Companies?

Posted by hkarner - 11. Februar 2020

Date: 10‑02‑2020

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Bullion has many advantages for long‑term investors, experts say. But for those who want to bet on the current rally, gold‑mining stocks may be preferable

Gold is a store of value. But one downside of bullion is that it pays no dividend.

After years stuck in the doldrums, gold is back in fashion. A common question from individual investors is, should they put their money into the precious metal itself or gold‑mining stocks?

“It boils down to what you are trying to achieve” says Rohit Savant, vice president of research at New York commodities consulting firm CPM Group.

For those seeking a strategic, long‑term investment, Mr. Savant and other experts advise buying bullion—that is, bars or coins of the metal or funds that focus on such. For those seeking to make a tactical bet on the gold rally, shares of gold miners might be preferable in that they offer the potential for bigger gains over a shorter period. Either way, investors should brace for a wild ride.

 For much of the past decade, gold and gold‑company shares weren’t great investments. The price of the precious metal briefly peaked above $1,900 a troy ounce in September 2011. By late 2015, it had fallen to $1,060 an ounce, a low for the decade.

“If you look at the price of gold over that time, it was in purgatory,” says Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities.

Gold stocks fared even worse. For much of the same period, VanEck Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) exchange‑traded fund, which tracks a basket of gold‑mining stocks, traded at less than half the value it was in late August 2011, according to data from Yahoo Finance.

Then suddenly, gold caught the interest of investors, as the U.S.‑China trade war dimmed the outlook for stocks and the some feared the White House wanted a weaker U.S. dollar. Bullion prices have rallied around 30% from September 2018, and the metal was recently trading at around $1,600 an ounce. Gold‑mining stocks have jumped almost 60% over a similar period. Wolfe Research now sees gold prices breaching the record highs of 2011, perhaps this year.

Pros, cons of bullion

For long‑term investors, investing in gold bullion has many advantages. It is a diversifier of risk when held as part of a broader portfolio. That’s because gold has virtually no correlation to movements in stocks most of the time, according to a research paper published in the Journal of Managerial Finance in 2015.

“The maximum correlation was less than 0.3, and that’s not a lot of correlation compared with other securities and their relationship to the S&P 500,” says Allen Michel, professor of finance at Boston University Questrom School of Business, one of the authors of the paper.

Another reason investors might want to hold a portion of their wealth in gold is as a store of value over the long term, Mr. Savant says. In other words, over long periods, gold prices move up as costs of living rise. That was certainly true during the double‑digit inflation of the 1970s, when bullion prices jumped more than 20‑fold to a then‑record $850 in 1980 from $35 in 1971. “The 1970s was a great decade for gold and terrible for stocks,” Mr. Hogan says.

Some experts also say bullion could help investors if there is a financial crisis and deflation. When a financial crisis hits, central banks may have no choice but to lower the cost of borrowing far below zero, says Don Coxe, chairman of Chicago‑based Coxe Advisors. That will make gold bullion even more attractive relative to negative‑yielding bonds because of its long history of maintaining its purchasing power.

The downside of bullion is that it never pays a dividend, and there are generally charges for insurance and storage in vaults, which can bite into profits. ETFs have helped reduced that burden, making small investments viable. “The storage costs have been mitigated by ETFs, which somewhat distribute the cost among the investor pool,” Mr. Savant says.

There are plenty of bullion ETFs from which to choose, including SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the largest, with more than $45 billion in assets. Others include GraniteShares Gold Trust (BAR) and VanEck Merk Gold Trust (OUNZ).

Pros, cons of gold stocks

As the past decade shows, gold‑mining stocks are far more volatile than gold prices. From 2011 to 2018, gold‑mining stocks fell around twice as much as gold stocks on a percentage basis. On the way back up over the past year or so, gold miners outperformed bullion handsomely.

“Investing in the miners is a bet you will have a sustained rally in the gold price,” says Mr. Hogan. If bullion continues to rally, then gold‑mining stocks should continue to do even better. But if the rally in bullion stalls even temporarily or reverses, then miners might not be such a good risk compared with bullion.

Nevertheless, gold stocks and ETFs that focus on them—such as VanEck Vectors Gold Miners, as well as iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners (RING) and Sprott Gold Miners (SGDM)—do seem to offer diversification in the same way as bullion.

“There’s good reason to believe that gold‑mining stocks follow a similar pattern to gold” in that way, says Prof. Michel.

That said, “there are a lot of additional risks you take on when you buy the miners,” Mr. Savant says.

Notably, when gold‑industry assets are cheap, financing might not be easily available. All mining companies must continually replenish their resources by finding new mineral deposits. And worst of all, mining CEOs can get overly optimistic when the industry booms.

 “You always have that history of gold miners spending too much money at the wrong time,” says Mr. Hogan.

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This Year’s Hottest Trade: Buying Everything

Posted by hkarner - 23. Oktober 2019

Date: 22-10-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Stocks, bonds, gold and oil have staged a rare concurrent rally

The New York Stock Exchange. The S&P 500 has risen 20% this year, even as Treasurys have rallied.

Stocks and bonds have staged a rare simultaneous ascent, logging the best performance in a quarter-century.

The S&P 500 has advanced 20% in 2019, while Treasurys have rallied. The last time the benchmark stock index rose more than 10% while the Treasury yield fell more than a percentage point in the first three quarters of the year was in 1995, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

That trend continued as the fourth quarter kicked off. Government bonds and gold notched gains last week as the S&P 500 hovered within 1.3% of its record reached in July and clinched its second straight week of gains. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Handelskonflikt treibt Goldpreis auf höchsten Stand seit 2013

Posted by hkarner - 9. August 2019

Der Preis für eine Feinunze stieg am Mittwoch auf mehr als 1.500 US-Dollar

Der Handelskonflikt zwischen den USA und China treibt Anleger in sogenannte sichere Häfen, zu denen auch Gold gezählt wird.

Frankfurt/London – Der Handelskonflikt zwischen den USA und China hat den Goldpreis auf den höchsten Wert seit Jahren getrieben. Am Mittwoch kostete eine Feinunze (31,1 Gramm) erstmals seit 2013 wieder mehr als 1.500 US-Dollar. Im Nachmittagshandel stieg der Preis für das Edelmetall zeitweise auf bis zu 1500,25 Dollar (1.341,07 Euro) und damit auf den höchsten Stand seit Frühjahr 2013.

Stärkster Preistreiber bleibt die Sorge vor den Folgen des eskalierenden Handelskonflikts zwischen den USA und China. Diese treibt die Anleger in sogenannte sichere Häfen, zu denen auch Gold gezählt wird. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italy’s Populists Covet Central Bank and Its Gold

Posted by hkarner - 4. April 2019

Date: 03-04-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Blaming the institution for the woes of ordinary Italians, lawmakers pursue a takeover

Some Italian politicians want to force the bank’s shareholders, mostly private banks, to sell their shares to the treasury.

ROME—Italy’s ruling populists pushed ahead this week with efforts to seize control of the central bank and its gold reserves, stepping up their confrontation with a symbol of the country’s establishment.

With two laws targeting the Bank of Italy under debate in parliament, the campaign is the latest attack on Italy’s independent institutions by leaders of the governing coalition, which is led by the antiestablishment 5 Star Movement and the nativist League.

The parties depict the central bank as a symbol of a technocratic elite aloof from the needs of ordinary Italians. Hundreds of thousands of small individual investors lost billions of dollars after several Italian banks failed in recent years, causing widespread anger against the Bank of Italy and previous governments. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Hyperinflationäres Gold bei 175 Millionen Dollar

Posted by hkarner - 13. August 2018

Dank an R.K.
|

Gold offenbart wirtschaftliches Missmanagement und die Währungsabwertung, die in den letzten 100 Jahren in den meisten Ländern der Welt um sich griffen. Wenn die Schuldenblasen platzen, kommt globale Hyperinflation.

 

Von Egon von Greyerz, Matterhorn Asset Management AG

Über der Weltwirtschaft hängt das Damoklesschwert, und nur ein einziges Rosshaar hält es. Eigentlich könnte man einer so offensichtlichen Gefahr dadurch entgehen, dass man das Haar mit einer Goldkette austauscht oder das Schwert ganz einfach entfernt. Doch die Elite und die Zentralbanker hatten andere Pläne. Das Haar wurde nicht durch eine solide Metallkette ersetzt, stattdessen hängt das Schwert heute an einem hauchdünnen Faden, der jederzeit reißen kann.

Vor einem Jahrzehnt stand das globale Finanzsystem kurz vor seinem Zusammenbruch. Auf der ganzen Welt pumpten Zentralbanken, allen voran die Federal Reserve, rund 25 Billionen Dollar an Krediten und Garantien ins System. Banken wie Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch und die Bank of America bekamen Billionen (siehe Tabelle unten). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Das „Krisenmetall“ Gold gerät selbst in eine Krise

Posted by hkarner - 4. August 2018

| 3.08.2018, welt.de

Leitender Wirtschaftsredakteur
Steigende Zinsen sind Gift für den Goldpreis
Vor allem in Krisenzeiten flüchten sich viele Anleger in den Kauf von Gold. Das Edelmetall galt bisher als sicher. Nun ist die Nachfrage so gering wie seit 2009 nicht mehr.
Die Gold-Nachfrage stürzt auf den tiefsten Stand seit 2009. Dabei müsste das Edelmetall durch das globale Chaos für Spekulanten attraktiver werden. Doch eine Entwicklung macht dem Krisenmetall deutlich zu schaffen.

Stell dir vor es herrscht Handelskrieg und keiner geht hin. Dieser leicht abgewandelte Satz von Bertolt Brecht lässt sich gerade beim Gold erleben. Das Edelmetall, das seine Qualitäten immer in der Krise entfaltet und deshalb unter Investoren auch Krisenmetall heißt, steckt selbst in der Krise.

Obwohl die Welt in Unordnung steckt und die Nachfrage nach sicheren Anlagen steigen müsste, hat das Krisenmetall den schlechtesten Start seit nahezu einer Dekade hingelegt. Im ersten Halbjahr rutschte die Nachfrage nach Gold auf 1959 Tonnen ab, das waren 127 Tonnen weniger als im Vorjahr und gleichzeitig das niedrigste Niveau seit 2009. Das offenbart der neueste Report des World Gold Council, einer globalen einer globalen Interessenvereinigung der Minenindustrie. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Bitcoin Isn’t a Currency, It’s a Commodity—Price It That Way

Posted by hkarner - 5. Januar 2018

Date: 04-01-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

If bitcoin has more in common with gold than dollars, it could have a long way to fall

Is a bitcoin worth the $15,000 it commands today, or is it really worth about $3,000? The huge runup in value since September suggests the lower figure.

Cryptocurrency fans typically fall into two groups. One sees the currencies as ways to buy and sell things; the other views them as investments. For now, the investment crowd is winning out: Bitcoin remains a cumbersome way to purchase most goods, but its value has skyrocketed, nearly quadrupling since mid-September.

If bitcoin is an investment, it most closely resembles gold. Both are stores of value that provide some built-in protection against inflation because there is a finite supply and because extracting new deposits gets more expensive over time, barring big technology changes.

If bitcoin really is digital gold, however, investors should analyze it like a commodity—looking at supply constraints and the factors driving demand. That exercise produces worrying results.

Bitcoin and gold are both stores of value that provide some built-in protection against inflation.

The most important factor in gold prices over the long run is production costs, which act something like a natural price floor when demand dips. Of course, gold prices can also temporarily move much higher when demand is strong but tend to fall back toward the marginal cost of production once worries about inflation or the dollar subside and gold begins to lose its appeal as a hedge. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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No rush: the price of gold

Posted by hkarner - 8. September 2017

Date: 07-09-2017
Source: The Economist

When the going gets tough, the nervous tend to buy gold. And that has been true—up to a point—during the crisis over North Korea’s nuclear programme. The bullion price has picked up since the start of August. But that takes the metal back only to $1,337 an ounce, barely up on a year ago, and way below its record of $1,898 in September 2011. These days gold has rivals in the “safe haven” stakes, such as the Swiss franc (up slightly more in the past year) and bitcoin, an electronic currency (up nearly eight-fold). In addition, many investors bought gold once central banks started quantitative easing after the 2008 financial crash, expecting a surge in inflation as a result. Prices stayed subdued and the case for an inflation hedge dwindled. Still, gold bugs remain some of the few people who might welcome the prospect of war.

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Experten: „Gold schleicht sich nach oben“

Posted by hkarner - 1. Juni 2017

In Euro steht der Goldpreis nur 18 Prozent unter seinem Rekord. Die Performance ist stabil. Aber dennoch bleibt es ruhig um das Metall. Es herrscht ja keine Krise. Noch nicht.

Bitcoin, Trump, Yuan-Aufstieg, Brexit und eine türkise ÖVP. Das sind die Themen, die derzeit alles dominieren. Um das Gold ist es ruhiger geworden. Vorbei die Zeiten, in denen das Metall auf den Titelseiten der Boulevardblätter glänzte. Wegen hoher Gewinne – und dann wegen hoher Verluste.

Den Experten Ronald Stöferle und Mark Valek ist das recht. „Gold schleicht sich nach oben“, sagt Stöferle am Donnerstag bei der Vorstellung des bereits 11. Reports mit dem Namen „In Gold we Trust“. Der Goldreport gehört zu den Standardwerken in einer Branche, in der die beiden Wiener inzwischen jeder kennt. Gemeinsam managen Stöferle und Valek in Liechtenstein einen Fonds für Incrementum. Die 180-Seiten Goldreport laufen nebenbei.

Ein festes Kursziel geben die Experten diesmal nicht aus. Aber in ihrem Report zerlegen sie die Entwicklung der Weltwirtschaft und auch der Geopolitik bis ins Detail. Ihr Fazit: Eine Krise ist überfällig. Und Gold ist derzeit noch billig – relativ zu Aktien und Anleihen. „Zwar scheint oberflächlich im Moment an den Finanzmärkten alles in Ordnung zu sein. Wir hallten dies aber für eine angespannte Ruhe, die bald zu Ende gehen könnte“, sagt Stöferle Als Gegengift empfiehlt der Goldexperte – wie könnte es anders sein – ein bisschen Gold. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump Trade Pushes Gold, Dollar Further Apart

Posted by hkarner - 4. März 2017

Date: 03-03-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The Trump era has brought a lot of polarization. And not just in the capital.

In financial markets, a deeper wedge is being driven between gold and the dollar, two long-standing foes. The pair often moves in opposite directions, a trend that became dramatically stronger starting late last year.

Their negative correlation hovers at -60%, compared with a -32% long-term average, said Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst at Standard Chartered Bank in New York. A Wall Street Journal analysis of the 60-day rolling correlation between gold and the dollar shows the two were recently moving more strongly against each other than any time in the last 13 years.

It started hitting those lows right around Election Day. Gold traders have been closely monitoring the U.S. economic and political environment, concerned about whether a new regime in the White House may lead to global instability, Ms. Cooper said. That overlaps with the historic negative relationship between gold and the dollar, pushing them even further apart. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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