Posted by hkarner - 22. Juli 2016
Robert J. Shiller
Robert J. Shiller, a 2013 Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics at Yale University and the co-creator of the Case-Shiller Index of US house prices. He is the author of
Irrational Exuberance, the third edition of which was published in January 2015, and, most recently, Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception, co-authored with George Akerlof.
JUL 21, 2016, Project Syndicate
NEW HAVEN – Economic slowdowns can often be characterized as periods of hesitation. Consumers hesitate to buy a new house or car, thinking that the old house or car will do just fine for a while longer. Managers hesitate to expand their workforce, buy a new office building, or build a new factory, waiting for news that will make them stop worrying about committing to new ideas. Viewed from this perspective, how worried should we be about the effects of hesitation today?
Hesitation is often like procrastination. One may have vague doubts and feel a need to mull things over; meanwhile, other issues intrude on thought and no decision is taken. Ask people why they procrastinate, and you probably won’t get a crisp answer. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Economy, EPU, Globalization, Hesitation, Project Syndicate, Shiller | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 20. Juli 2016
Source: The Washington Post
Globalization has become the scapegoat for inequality, poor jobs, reduced wages and other economic problems – real and perceived – during the US presidential election. “What’s lost in the obsession with globalization is the fact that the American economy is driven mainly by domestic factors,” writes Robert Samuelson in a column for the Washington Post, adding that about 75 percent of the US economy is domestic whereas other countries have higher trade dependence. The subprime crisis of 2007 that triggered global recession was a domestic challenge for the country. A strong US dollar and not trade agreements are a reason for trade deficits. US politicians should focus on encouraging corporate investment, business start-ups, productivity and reducing government debt. – YaleGlobal
70 percent of US economy is based on domestic factors; government debt, slowed corporate investment – not globalization – contribute to economic woes
Robert J. Samuelson is a columnist for the Washington Post.
Can we get globalization right? It has emerged as an all-purpose scapegoat for our economic woes — lost jobs, depressed wages, large trade deficits, greater income inequality, anxieties about the future. The reality is otherwise: Although globalization is genuine, it has been distorted and its ills exaggerated. I have written about this before, but because the issue is so central to the campaign debate, it’s worth revisiting.
There can be no doubt that globalization has been cast as an economic villain. Donald Trump recently gave a major address on the economy. It was almost exclusively devoted to the alleged evils of globalization. Here’s a sample: Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Clinton, Globalization, Samuelson, TPP, Trump, USA, Washington Post | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 15. Juli 2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Though likely to remain Europe’s financial hub, it faces home-grown political uncertainty
Three weeks after the Brexit vote, a consensus is emerging that the U.K.’s decision to quit the European Union was primarily a revolt against globalization by “left behind” voters registering their anger at excessive immigration, which they blamed for driving down wages and putting pressure on public services.
There is plenty of evidence to buttress this thesis. Support for Brexit was strongest in areas that tend to be the most economically disadvantaged and where average levels of education are low, according to Professor Matthew Goodwin of Kent University.
But this “left behind” narrative hardly tells the whole story. It doesn’t explain why 75% of Conservative-held constituencies voted for Brexit, or nearly half of Tory MPs, or 58% of Conservative voters. Nor does it explain why support for Brexit tended to be higher in areas where immigration was lowest or highest among pensioners, while younger voters who are more exposed to globalization backed staying in the EU. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Banken, Brexit, Britain, Finanzkrise, Globalization, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 14. Juli 2016
Gordon Brown, former Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom, is United Nations Special Envoy for Global Education and Chair of the International Commission on Financing Global Education Opportunity.
JUL 13, 2016, Project Syndicate
LONDON – Britain will have a new prime minister today – but the country’s post-European Union future remains uncertain. Indeed, prolonged delays are likely in implementing the voters’ decision to leave the EU.
The first uncertainty is the date when exit negotiations will start. The process should be completed within two years of invoking Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon; but the incoming prime minister, Theresa May, has already said she would not want to trigger negotiations until the end of the year.
The second uncertainty is whether the negotiations can simultaneously resolve the United Kingdom’s terms of exit from the EU and its future trading arrangements with Europe’s single market. While the UK will claim that, under Article 50, negotiators should be “taking into account the framework of future relationships,” the EU trade negotiator is insisting that future arrangements can be discussed only after Britain leaves. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Britain, Brown, EEA, Europe, Globalization, Recession | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 12. Juli 2016
Dani Rodrik is Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. He is the author of The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy and, most recently, Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science.
JUL 11, 2016, Project Syndicate
RONDA, SPAIN – As the world reels from the Brexit shock, it is dawning on economists and policymakers that they severely underestimated the political fragility of the current form of globalization. The popular revolt that appears to be underway is taking diverse, overlapping forms: reassertion of local and national identities, demand for greater democratic control and accountability, rejection of centrist political parties, and distrust of elites and experts.
This backlash was predictable. Some economists, including me, did warn about the consequences of pushing economic globalization beyond the boundaries of institutions that regulate, stabilize, and legitimize markets. Hyper-globalization in trade and finance, intended to create seamlessly integrated world markets, tore domestic societies apart. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Globalization, Immigration, Left, Right Wing, Rodrik | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 10. Juli 2016
Subject: Electorate Tremors: The Era of the Angry Voter Is Upon Us
Whether they are fans of Donald Trump, supporters of Brexit or Marine Le Pen voters in France, „angry voters“ have one thing in common: They’ve been left in the dust by globalization.
Paula Heap and Joel Coe live 6,400 kilometers apart. They don’t even know each other, but they share the same sense of outrage.
She voted for Brexit and he intends to vote for Donald Trump in November. She hails from Preston, a city in northwest England that never truly recovered from the decline of the textiles industry. He’s an American from the small town of Red Boiling Springs in northern Tennessee. His textiles factory, Racoe Inc., is the last of its kind still in business in the area.
It’s Heap’s view that globalization has created a lot of winners and a lot of losers, and that Preston is among the losers. She describes the EU as an „empire“ that regulates her electric water kettle but doesn’t create any prosperity. She’s riled by the many immigrants, saying the pressure on the labor market and the health system is increasing. „We want to retain control over immigration,“ she says. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Globalization, Spiegel, Voters | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 8. Juli 2016
Adair Turner, a former chairman of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services Authority and former member of the UK’s Financial Policy Committee, is Chairman of the Institute for New Economic Thinking. His latest book is Between Debt and the Devil.
JUL 7, 2016, Project Syndicate
LONDON – As a passionate European, the outcome of Britain’s referendum on European Union membership horrified me. It will almost certainly result in our exit from the EU. But I have feared for many years that large-scale immigration to the UK would produce a harmful populist response.
Global elites must now learn and act upon the crucial lesson of “Brexit.” Contrary to glib assumptions, globalization of capital, trade, and migration flows is not “good for everyone.” If we do not address its adverse effects, Brexit will not be the last – or the worst – consequence.
Net immigration to Britain was close to zero in the early 1990s. It began to increase later that decade, and grew rapidly after eight formerly communist countries joined the EU in 2004, when Britain – unlike, for instance, France and Germany – waived its right to impose a seven-year delay before allowing free movement of people from the new member states. Last year, net immigration was 333,000, and the total population grew by around 500,000. Credible forecasts suggest that the UK’s population, now 64 million, could be above 80 million by mid-century. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Globalization, Migration, Project Syndicate, Turner | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 7. Juli 2016
on July 6, 2016, RGE EconoMonitor
The reasons for the majority vote in favor of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union will be studied and analyzed for years to come. Globalization in the form of migration—or fear of migration—played a considerable role. Support for leaving the EU was also high in the British version of the “rust belt,” in this case the industrial Northern areas that have lost jobs to overseas competitors. But financial globalization also played a role in exacerbating the divisions that led to the vote to exit.
London’s role as an international financial center has served that city well. According to The Guardian, “The capital generates 22% of the UK’s gross domestic product, much of this from financial services, despite accounting for only 12.5% of the UK population.” Those employed in the financial sector have been well compensated for their work. In a study of financial sector wages in London, Joanne Lindley of King’s College London and Steve McIntosh of the University of Sheffield (see a shorter version here) report that “…the average wage in the financial sector was almost three times as large as the average wage across the whole private sector in 2009.” The same phenomenon has been observed in wages in the U.S. financial sector as well as in other European economies.
The relatively high wages paid to those employed in the financial sector contributes to rising income inequality in the UK. The Gini coefficient, a measure of income inequality, has soared in recent years, and according to one report is now the highest in Europe. According to the Equality Trust, “Average household income in London is considerably higher than in the North East.” But this disparity across the regions of the country has not been an issue in recent elections, leaving those outside the financial sector feeling left behind and marginalized. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, City of London, Finance, GINI, Globalization, Joyce, RGE Monitor | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 7. Juli 2016
Source: The Times of India
British voters decided to separate from the European Union, and many analysts afterward pronounced this to be indicative of globalization’s demise. “[G]lobal interdependence is far too advanced to be reversed without seriously harming the well-being of the entire nation,” writes Nayan Chanda, YaleGlobal’s founding editor, in a column for the Times of India. “When Britain begins the divorce proceedings it will uncover the massive tangle of subsidies and tariff benefits that course through the economy, the severing of which would impose painful costs.” Voters in a major democracy may have been scammed. Soon after the outcome was announced, Brexit leaders withdrew promises of diverting EU membership fees toward health care and urged ongoing participation in Europe’s single market with new rules. Efficient governance minimizes disruptions by introducing reforms rather than abruptly ending programs with no plan in place. Globalization is far from dead, Chanda concludes, as revealed by the global response to Brexit and more repercussions to come. – YaleGlobal
Globalization offers many benefits; peevish Brexiters should treat the ailments of globalization with efficient governance rather than plan its burial
Nayan Chanda Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Chanda, Globalization, Times of India, Yale | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 6. Juli 2016
Wolfgang Keller, Hâle Utar 05 July 2016, voxeu
Recent shifts in political sentiment regarding EU membership have been caused in part by a growing hostility towards globalisation. This column uses Danish evidence to analyse whether globalisation causes a polarisation of jobs in developed countries, and in particular whether it causes a loss of middle-income jobs. Rising import competition can increase income inequality, but it also accounts for a substantial part of all high-wage employment gains. The task for policymakers is to make these gains felt by the majority of citizens.
In his assessment of the Brexit vote the day after it took place, former Prime Minister Tony Blair saw the key to the success of the Leave campaign as being the convergence of the political far left (the railing at bankers) and far right (the attacks on immigrants) that would ultimately be driven by a shared hostility to globalisation. As readers of his 24th June article in the New York Times were quick to point out, it may not be hostility to globalisation per se as much as a reaction to the decimation of the middle class and rising economic inequality that seems to accompany globalisation in high-income countries. But does globalisation in fact cause polarisation?
Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Denmark, Globalization, Keller, Utar, voxeu | Leave a Comment »