Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Globalization’

Taming the Populists

Posted by hkarner - 19. August 2016

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Javier Solana

Javier Solana was EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Secretary-General of NATO, and Foreign Minister of Spain. He is currently President of the ESADE Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics, Distinguished Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Europe.

AUG 18, 2016

MADRID – In many Western democracies, right-wing populists, energized by self-proclaimed victories over “establishment elites,” are doubling down on the claim that globalization lies at the root of many citizens’ problems. For those whose living standards have stagnated or declined in recent decades, even as political leaders have touted free trade and capital flows as the recipe for increased prosperity, the argument holds considerable appeal. So it must be addressed head on.

Of course, economic grievances alone do not fuel anti-globalization sentiment; populism has emerged even in countries with low unemployment and rising incomes. But such grievances provide the kernel of truth that populist leaders need to attract support, which they then attempt to secure with distortions and exaggerations. If the economic issues are not addressed, support for such leaders will continue to grow, potentially taking their societies backward, to a less tolerant – and less prosperous – time. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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What Role for Global Governance?

Posted by hkarner - 19. August 2016

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Kemal Derviş

Kemal Derviş, former Minister of Economic Affairs of Turkey and former Administrator for the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), is a vice president of the Brookings Institution.

AUG 18, 2016, Project Syndicate

WASHINGTON, DC – Can global governance solve most of our economic problems? Or does it too often promise more than it can deliver, and divert attention from more practical reforms that national governments should implement? In a recent commentary, Harvard University economist Dani Rodrik thoughtfully argues the latter. Is he right?

To be sure, national policy has a more direct effect – good or bad – on a country’s citizens. But we cannot ignore the global effects of bad national policies, the most obvious examples noted by Rodrik being greenhouse-gas emissions and infectious diseases. People in the “country of origin” may pay a price, but so will the rest of us.

“Globalization” has been a catchword for decades, and the need for global governance has admittedly been exaggerated in recent years, especially by those on the center left. This has led to calls for new alternatives, such as “responsible nationalism” or “inter-governmental” – as opposed to supranational – decision-making in the European Union. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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World Gone Backwards

Posted by hkarner - 8. August 2016

By John Mauldin, August 7, 2016

“The growth model China has relied on for the last 30 years – one predicated on low-cost exports to the rest of the world and investment in resource-intensive heavy manufacturing – is unlikely to serve it well in the next 30 years.”

– Gary Locke

“In this 21st century world, some of our country’s most significant exports extend beyond goods and services. They also include innovation, knowledge, discovery, and healing.”

– Kathleen Sebelius


John here. This Friday, writing day finds me in Grand Lake Stream, Maine; but fortunately for me, this week’s letter has been written by my associate Patrick Watson, giving me a week off. Patrick takes up where I left off last week, when we discussed the uneven distribution of the benefits of globalization. That globalization has in fact been positive for humanity and for our country is incontestable – you would have to ignore mountains of data to dispute that fact – but there is no doubt that the benefits have not accrued equally to everyone, leaving large swathes of the US population (and many in the rest of the world) feeling like they weren’t invited to the party, but have been forced instead to watch through the windows at all the other participants enjoying themselves. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Globalization Is the Only Answer

Posted by hkarner - 8. August 2016

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Anabel González

Anabel González is Senior Director for the World Bank Group’s Trade & Competitiveness Global Practice.

AUG 6, 2016, Project Syndicate

WASHINGTON, DC – The Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom and the presidential race in the United States have shown, among other things, that public distrust of global integration is on the rise. That distrust could derail new trade agreements currently in the works, and prevent future ones from being initiated.

The danger implied by this scenario should not be underestimated. Isolationism and protectionism, if taken too far, would break the trade-based economic engine that has delivered peace and prosperity to the world for decades.

As a former trade minister for Costa Rica, I know how difficult it is for countries – developed and developing alike – to craft trade policies that deliver benefits to all of their people. But just because managing the effects of globalization is difficult does not mean we should throw our hands up and quit. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Globalization and its New Discontents

Posted by hkarner - 6. August 2016

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Joseph E. Stiglitz

Joseph E. Stiglitz, recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2001 and the John Bates Clark Medal in 1979, is University Professor at Columbia University, Co-Chair of the High-Level Expert Group on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress at the OECD, and Chief Economist of the Roosevelt Institute. A former senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank and chair of the US president’s Council of Economic Advisers under Bill Clinton, in 2000 he founded the Initiative for Policy Dialogue, a think tank on international development based at Columbia University. His most recent book is Rewriting the Rules of the American Economy.

AUG 5, 2016, Project Syndicate

NEW YORK – Fifteen years ago, I wrote a little book, entitled Globalization and its Discontents, describing growing opposition in the developing world to globalizing reforms. It seemed a mystery: people in developing countries had been told that globalization would increase overall wellbeing. So why had so many people become so hostile to it?

Now, globalization’s opponents in the emerging markets and developing countries have been joined by tens of millions in the advanced countries. Opinion polls, including a careful study by Stanley Greenberg and his associates for the Roosevelt Institute, show that trade is among the major sources of discontent for a large share of Americans. Similar views are apparent in Europe. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Capitalist Democracy’s Left-Behinds Challenge the System

Posted by hkarner - 4. August 2016

Date: 03-08-2016
Source: YaleGlobal by Humphrey Hawksley

Democracy appears to be malfunctioning in a fast-paced world. “The concept of the Western-style democratic system is that an accountable government funded by revenue from the market will distribute wealth thus creating a stable society,” writes journalist Humphrey Hawksley, who points out large number of citizens, many uneducated, are convinced that democratic systems are rigged by wealthy and educated elites. “Rather than feeling more involved through their elected representatives, people have a sense of being excluded politically and left behind economically, and this is not how democracy is meant to work.” Examples of such discontent, with disjointed opinions between citizens and their leaders, include the British decision to leave the European Union and the rise of self-proclaimed billionaire Donald Trump. A huge trust deficit has emerged in democratic politics and business, Hawksley argues, and reforms cannot happen too soon as growing numbers of voters prefer dismantling entire systems of governance, encouraged by ambitious ringleaders relying on fear, hyperbole and wild promises of their own invincibility. – YaleGlobal

Extreme fixes proposed for democracy’s faltering economies and an ineffective political class that’s out of touch Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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„Es gibt Grenzen, was Neuankömmlinge anbetrifft“

Posted by hkarner - 1. August 2016

Date: 01-08-2016
Source: Die Welt

Fukuyama ccIslam und Demokratie? Überhaupt kein Problem, sagt der US-Politologe Francis Fukuyama. Die größte Gefahr für Europa sieht er woanders. Besonders deutlich rechnet er mit Angela Merkel ab.

Francis Fukuyama gehört zu den bekanntesten Historikern und Politologen unserer Zeit. Berühmt wurde er mit seiner These vom „Ende der Geschichte“. Kurz nach dem Fall der Mauer in Berlin prophezeite Fukuyama, die liberale Demokratie werde bald für eine dauerhaft sichere politische Zukunft der Menschheit sorgen

Frage: Professor Fukuyama, sie vertreten die These, dass man gegen die Terrormiliz Islamischer Staat (IS) keinen Krieg führen dürfe. Aber wäre das nicht eine plausible Lösung, angesichts der immer häufigeren Attacken?

Francis Fukuyama: Nein. Die wahre Bedrohung wäre eine Überreaktion unsererseits. Das ist doch genau das, was der Terrorismus erreichen will, vor allem der Islamische Staat. Wir dürfen den fürchterlichen Fehler des Irakkriegs von 2003 nicht wiederholen. Die Bürger wollen eine schnelle Lösung für dieses Problem. Doch ganz ehrlich: So eine Lösung gibt es nicht.

Kleine, aber heftige Attentate von labilen Individuen, wie bei den letzten, die wir erlebt haben, und wie sie auch in den USA immer wieder passieren, sind nicht vorhersehbar. Alle zu beschützen ist vollkommen unmöglich. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Real Roots of Populism

Posted by hkarner - 29. Juli 2016

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Andrés Velasco

Andrés Velasco, a former presidential candidate and finance minister of Chile, is Professor of Professional Practice in International Development at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. He has taught at Harvard University and New York University, and is the author of numerous studies on international economics and development.

JUL 28, 2016, Project Syndicate

MONTEVIDEO – Out-of-control globalization has destroyed jobs, caused middle-class incomes to stagnate, and deepened income inequality. In response, angry voters are turning to populist politicians. Without a radical shift away from liberal economic policies, populism will be unstoppable.

This narrative is simple and increasingly popular. It is also dead wrong. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Brief History of (In)equality

Posted by hkarner - 28. Juli 2016

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J. Bradford DeLong

J. Bradford DeLong is Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was Deputy Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton Administration, where he was heavily involved in budget and trade negotiations. His role in designing the bailout of Mexico during the 1994 peso crisis placed him at the forefront of Latin America’s transformation into a region of open economies, and cemented his stature as a leading voice in economic-policy debates.

JUL 27, 2016, Project Syndicate

BERKELEY – The Berkeley economist Barry Eichengreen recently gave a talk in Lisbon about inequality that demonstrated one of the virtues of being a scholar of economic history. Eichengreen, like me, glories in the complexities of every situation, avoiding oversimplification in the pursuit of conceptual clarity. This disposition stays the impulse to try to explain more about the world than we can possibly know with one simple model.

For his part, with respect to inequality, Eichengreen has identified six first-order processes at work over the past 250 years.

The first is the widening of Britain’s income distribution between 1750 and 1850, as the gains from the British Industrial Revolution went to the urban and rural middle class, but not to the urban and rural poor.

Second, between 1750 and 1975, income distribution also widened globally, as some parts of the world realized gains from industrial and post-industrial technologies, while others did not. For example, in 1800, American purchasing power parity was twice that of China; by 1975 it was 30 times that of China.

The third process is what is known as the First Age of Globalization, between 1850 and 1914, when living standards and labor productivity levels converged in the global north. During this time, 50 million people left an overcrowded agricultural Europe for resource-rich new settlements. They brought their institutions, technologies, and capital with them, and the wage differential between Europe and these new economies shrank from roughly 100% to 25%.

This mostly coincided with the Gilded Age between 1870 and 1914, when domestic inequality rose in the global north as entrepreneurship, industrialization, and financial manipulation channeled new gains mostly to the wealthiest families.

Gilded Age inequality was significantly reversed during the period of social democracy in the global north, between 1930 and 1980, when higher taxes on the wealthy helped pay for new government benefits and programs. But the subsequent and last stage brings us to the current moment, when economic policy choices have again resulted in a widening of the distribution of gains in the global north, ushering in a new Gilded Age.

Eichengreen’s six processes affecting inequality are a good starting point. But I would go further and add six more.

First, there is the stubborn persistence of absolute poverty in some places, despite the extraordinary overall reduction since 1980. As the UCLA scholar Ananya Roy points out, people in absolute poverty are deprived of both the opportunities and the means to change their status. They lack what the philosopher Isaiah Berlin called “positive liberty” – empowerment for self-actualization – as well as “negative liberty,” or freedom from obstacles in one’s path of action. Seen in this light, inequality is an uneven distribution not only of wealth, but also of liberty.

Second is the abolition of slavery in many parts of the world during the nineteenth century, followed by, third, the global loosening over time of other caste constraints – race, ethnicity, gender – which deprived even some people with wealth of the opportunities to use it.

The fourth process consists of two recent high-growth generations in China and one high-growth generation in India, which has been a significant factor underlying global wealth convergence since 1975.

Fifth is the dynamic of compound interest, which through favorable political arrangements allows the wealthy to profit from the economy without actually creating any new wealth. As the French economist Thomas Piketty has observed, this process may have played some role in our past, and will surely play an even bigger role in our future.

At this point, it should be clear why I began by noting the complexity of economic history. This complexity implies that any adjustments to our political economy should be based on sound social science and directed by elected leaders who are genuinely acting in the interest of the people.

Emphasizing complexity brings me to a final factor affecting inequality – perhaps the most important of all: populist mobilizations. Democracies are prone to populist uprisings, especially when inequality is on the rise. But the track record of such uprisings should give us pause.

In France, populist mobilizations installed an emperor – Napoleon III, who led a coup in 1851 – and overthrew democratically elected governments during the Third Republic. In the United States, they underpinned discrimination against immigrants and sustained the Jim Crow era of legal racial segregation.

In Central Europe, populist mobilizations have driven imperial conquests under the banner of proletarian internationalism. In the Soviet Union, they helped Vladimir Lenin consolidate power, with disastrous consequences that were surpassed only by the horrors of Nazism, which also came to power on a populist wave.

Constructive populist responses to inequality are fewer, but they should certainly be mentioned. In some cases, populism has helped in extending the franchise; enacting a progressive income tax and social insurance; building physical and human capital; opening economies; prioritizing full employment; and encouraging migration.

History teaches us that these latter responses to inequality have made the world a better place. Unfortunately – and at the risk of oversimplification – we usually fail to heed history’s lessons.

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The Globalization Disconnect

Posted by hkarner - 26. Juli 2016

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Stephen S. Roach
Stephen S. Roach, former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm’s chief economist, is a senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a senior lecturer at Yale’s School of Management. He is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.

JUL 25, 2016, Project Syndicate

NEW HAVEN – While seemingly elegant in theory, globalization suffers in practice. That is the lesson of Brexit and of the rise of Donald Trump in the United States. And it also underpins the increasingly virulent anti-China backlash now sweeping the world. Those who worship at the altar of free trade – including me – must come to grips with this glaring disconnect.

Truth be known, there is no rigorous theory of globalization. The best that economists can offer is David Ricardo’s early nineteenth-century framework: if a country simply produces in accordance with its comparative advantage (in terms of resource endowments and workers’ skills), presto, it will gain through increased cross-border trade. Trade liberalization – the elixir of globalization – promises benefits for all.

That promise arguably holds in the long run, but a far tougher reality check invariably occurs in the short run. Brexit – the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union – is just the latest case in point. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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