Posted by hkarner - 5. Juli 2016
Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.
JUL 4, 2016, Project Syndivate
NEW YORK – The United Kingdom’s narrow vote to leave the European Union had specific British causes. And yet it is also the proverbial canary in the coalmine, signaling a broad populist/nationalist backlash – at least in advanced economies – against globalization, free trade, offshoring, labor migration, market-oriented policies, supranational authorities, and even technological change.
All of these trends reduce wages and employment for low-skill workers in labor-scarce and capital-rich advanced economies, and raise them in labor-abundant emerging economies. Consumers in advanced economies benefit from the reduction in prices of traded goods; but low and even some medium-skill workers lose income as their equilibrium wages fall and their jobs are threatened. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Europe, Globalization, Immigration, Project Syndicate, Roubini, UK, Unemployment, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 2. Juli 2016
Source: The Economist: Free exchange
Subject: The consensus crumbles
AFTER the second world war, the leaders of the Western world tried to build institutions to prevent the horrors of the preceding decades from recurring. They sought to foster both prosperity and interdependence, to “make war not only unthinkable but materially impossible”. Their work has borne fruit. There has been no armed conflict in western Europe since. Expanded global trade has raised incomes around the world. Yet, as the Brexit vote demonstrates, globalisation now seems to be receding. Most economists have been blindsided by the backlash. A few saw it coming. It is worth studying their reasoning, in order to work out whether a retrenchment is inevitable or might be avoided.
Even economists realise that free trade can be a hard sell politically. The political economy of trade is treacherous: its benefits, though substantial, are diffuse, but its costs are often concentrated, giving those affected a strong incentive to push for protectionism. Since 1776, when Adam Smith published “The Wealth of Nations”, those pressing for global openness have won more battles than they have lost. Yet opposition to globalisation seldom disappears, and often regroups. And a position once considered near-heretical, that globalisation itself seems to create forces that erode political support for integration, is gaining currency. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Deglobalization, Economist, Globalization, Rajan, Rodrik, Stiglitz | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 30. Juni 2016
Carmen Reinhart is Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.
JUN 29, 2016, Project Syndicate
CAMBRIDGE – The United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum has shaken equity and financial markets around the world. As in prior episodes of contagious financial turmoil, the victory of the “Leave” vote sent skittish global investors toward the usual safe havens. US Treasury bonds rose, and the dollar, Swiss franc, and yen appreciated, most markedly against sterling.
When it became clear that the “Remain” camp had lost, the pound’s slide seemed to be on track to match the historic 14% depreciation of the 1967 sterling crisis. But the rollercoaster outcomes that we’re now seeing in global capital markets are not unique to the Brexit episode.
What is unique, and particularly far-reaching, is the precedent Brexit sets for other countries (or regions) to “exit” from their respective political and economic arrangements – whether it is Scotland and Northern Ireland in the UK, or Catalonia in Spain. The borders of existing nation-states could be redrawn, or fenced off entirely if disgruntled member states submit to internal nationalist impulses and give up on the multi-decade experiment in European unification. (And, as Donald Trump’s presidential campaign in the United States shows, this impulse extends beyond Europe.) Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Globalization, Project Syndicate, Reinhart | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 30. Juni 2016
Many voters in the United Kingdom are having second thoughts about leaving the European Union, and not simply because of the plummeting value of currency or stock markets. The referendum’s outcome instantly transformed the UK’s reputation, from being open to trade and diversity to being isolated and insecure. “The message contained in the decision to leave the European Union resonates with a lot of people in other countries,” explains Farok Contractor, a professor at Rutgers Business School and expert in foreign direct investment, adding that “the vote highlighted growing worldwide anxiety over the impact of globalization.” Too often voters do not recognize incremental benefits of trade agreements or immigration and instead fall prey to shrill warnings from social media or populist leaders with an agenda. Contractor reminds that the UK imposes more regulations on its businesses than does the EU and that citizens in advanced economies demand such protections. Leaders of democratic governments must engage in more education and truth-telling to earn the trust of voters. – YaleGlobal
More truth-telling is needed in a complex world where the disgruntled try to cherry-pick among regulations, globalization Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Contractor, Globalization, Yale | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 29. Juni 2016
Posted on June 27, 2016 by iMFdirect
By David Lipton
First Deputy Managing Director, IMF
Mr. David Lipton assumed the position of First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund on September 1, 2011. On March 28, 2016, Mr. Lipton was reappointed for a second five-year term beginning September 1, 2016. Before coming to the Fund, Mr. Lipton was Special Assistant to the President, and served as Senior Director for International Economic Affairs at the National Economic Council and National Security Council at the White House.
There were a lot of dramatic headlines over the weekend suggesting that Brexit signals the beginning of the end of globalization. Surely, it is too soon to understand all the ramifications of the British referendum. But at the same time, today is surely a good day to make the case for multilateralism. While there are plenty of reasons to be concerned about the future, I will argue that globalization still has promise. But to achieve that promise, we will need a fresh look at multilateralism and the role the international financial institutions can play.
My generation can be excused for assuming that history moves in one direction: We have experienced globalization and with it rising incomes and economic progress at home and abroad. Our experience was different than our parents’ generation, which came of age experiencing depression and war. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Bremner, Brexit, G Zero, Globalization, IMF, Lipton, Multilateralism, Secular stagnation | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 24. Juni 2016
By Ian Bremmer, John Mauldin’s „Outside the Box“, 23 June 2016
This weekend witnessed the worst mass shooting in the history of the United States. It will also surely be the most politicized. Some 50 dead at the hands of a self-declared ISIS supporter with an automatic assault weapon, in the midst of the most polarized presidential election the country has experienced in the post-war period.
The responses are divided strongly along political lines: the left focusing on gun control; the right on radical Islam. There’s no policy change coming: the act of terrorism was by all counts “homegrown” despite an ISIS pledge, and the Obama administration will avoid any politics that pushes towards further American intervention across the Middle East or a post-9/11 style Patriot Act redux at home. While domestic American lobbies against gun control are set in stone until the next election at least.
The greater impact will be on the campaign, where a large attack on the homeland plays into Donald Trump’s (temporary) “ban the Muslims” platform. Hillary Clinton’s hawkish tone on terrorism and us intervention made for a stronger statement than President Obama’s… But it’s still a bigger opening for Trump, especially since the attack, along with the recent mass killing in San Bernadino, happened on Obama’s Democratic administration’s watch. Doesn’t change my overall electoral call, where the demographics and weak GOP (political and financial) support still give Clinton a significant edge. But it will make identity politics over the course of the election – and after – far more toxic, with negative long-term consequences for both constructive political legislation and, as a consequence, market sentiment.
Given the short-term situation (enormous headlines, a horrible tragedy, but limited US and global impact) I’m not planning on writing this week’s update on the shooting. Rather, I’ve been spending quite a bit of time thinking about something bigger:
Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Bremmer, Deglobalization, Globalization, Mauldin, Migration | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 18. Juni 2016
Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0, The Birth of a New Economy, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.
JUN 17, 2016, Project Sndicate
LONDON – The febrile behavior of financial markets ahead of the United Kingdom’s referendum on June 23 on whether to remain in the European Union shows that the outcome will influence economic and political conditions around the world far more profoundly than Britain’s roughly 2.4% share of global GDP might suggest. There are three reasons for this outsize impact.
First, the “Brexit” referendum is part of a global phenomenon: populist revolts against established political parties, predominantly by older, poorer, or less-educated voters angry enough to tear down existing institutions and defy “establishment” politicians and economic experts. Indeed, the demographic profile of potential Brexit voters is strikingly similar to that of American supporters of Donald Trump and French adherents of the National Front.
Opinion polls indicate that British voters back the “Leave”campaign by a wide margin, 65% to 35%, if they did not complete high school, are over 60, or have “D, E” blue-collar occupations. By contrast, university graduates, voters under 40, and members of the “A, B” professional classes plan to vote “Remain” by similar margins of 60% to 40% and higher. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Globalization, Kaletsky, Project Syndicate | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 12. Juni 2016
The many parts of complex machinery are sourced for now from multiple countries. “Over the past century, finished products made in a single country have become increasingly hard to find as globalization – weighted a term as it is – has stretched supply chains to the ends of the Earth,” writes Rebecca Keller for Stratfor. She points out that automation, robotics and computerization will gradually increase productivity and shorten supply chains, with less business for developing nations. The transition will be gradual, she explains: 3D printing cannot yet make products of multiple materials, and metal copying is slow; robotic dexterity and programming must improve; and factories of robots, while reducing labor costs, will have high energy costs. With more regionalized trade, she suggests, trade blocs like NAFTA could become self-sufficient. The most educated, advanced economies will have advantages, along with wealthy nations that can purchase new technologies. She concludes, “Technology is a part of geopolitics that is often overlooked, and yet it fundamentally changes the way countries interact with one another and cope with their inherent constraints.” A challenge is managing the unrest that may accompany the inevitable inequality. – YaleGlobal
Technology will transform foreign relations – transition to robotic, 3D printing economy will be gradual, encouraging regionalization rather than globalization Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Globalization, Keller, Manufacturing, Stratfor | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 8. Juni 2016
Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation. A specialist on German economic history and on globalization, he is the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle, Krupp: A History of the Legendary German Firm, and Making the European Monetary Union.
JUN 7, 2016, Project Syndicate
PRINCETON – There was a palpable sense of discomfort at the latest G7 summit meeting in Ise-Shima, Japan. By the time the leaders of the world’s major developed economies meet again, there is no telling which of them will be populist insurgents. President Donald Trump could be representing the United States, or President Marine Le Pen could be representing France. They could be sitting down with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Italian Prime Minister Beppe Grillo, or even German Chancellor Frauke Petry. All of them would be championing nationalism and isolationism, in one form or another. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: G7, Globalization, James, Project Syndicate, RGE Monitor, Spiegel | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 8. Mai 2016
Daniel Gros is Director of the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, and served as an economic adviser to the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the French prime minister and finance minister. He is the editor of Economie Internationale and International Finance.
MAY 6, 2016, Project Syndicate
BRUSSELS – On both sides of the Atlantic, populism of the left and the right is on the rise. Its most visible standard-bearer in the United States is Donald Trump, the Republican Party’s presumptive presidential nominee. In Europe, there are many strands – from Spain’s leftist Podemos party to France’s right-wing National Front – but all share the same opposition to centrist parties, and to the establishment in general. What accounts for voters’ growing revolt against the status quo? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Europe, Globalization, Gros, Populism, Project Syndicate, USA | Leave a Comment »