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Posts Tagged ‘Globalization’

Brace yourself: the most disruptive phase of globalization is just beginning

Posted by hkarner - 20. Dezember 2016

Date: 19-12-2016
Source: http://qz.com/

robot-bartender-ccRobot bartender

To properly understand globalization, you need to start 200,000 years ago.
Richard Baldwin skillfully takes on this daunting task in a new book, starting all the way back with the hunter-gatherers. For too long, he says, traditional analysis of trade has been too narrow, he argues.

The economist, who is a professor at the Graduate Institute in Geneva and president of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) in London, has been researching globalization and trade for 30 years. As anti-globalization forces now sweep across the world, The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalization (Harvard University Press) is well timed.

Baldwin argues that globalization takes shape in three distinct stages: the ability to move goods, then ideas, and finally people. Since the early 19th century, the cost of the first two has fallen dramatically, spurring the surge in international trade that is now a feature of the modern global economy.

The standard line from politicians in recent times is that everyone wins from globalization. But the backlash from low-skilled workers who lost their jobs to cheaper labor abroad has forced a change in tone.

Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, gave a candid speech on globalization in northwest England this week, where unemployment is among the highest in the country. He said: Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The End of Globalism

Posted by hkarner - 10. Dezember 2016

Date: 09-12-2016
Source: Foreign Affairs

Where China and the United States Go From Here

When it rains, it pours. As the Great Recession, eurozone crisis, stalled trade deals, increased conflict between Russia and the West, electoral revolts against European political elites, and finally Brexit followed the 2008 financial meltdown, it seemed clear that globalization was running out of steam. Yet few expected that its opponents would claim the top prize—the White House—and so soon.

World powers are now scrambling to react to Donald Trump’s paradigm-shifting election as president of the United States. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, after repeatedly expressing concern about a potential Trump presidency and pointedly meeting with only Hillary Clinton before the election, rushed to New York for face time with the president-elect. European leaders have been more ambivalent, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel even putting conditions on working with Trump. And the Russians have seemed downright gleeful; in a congratulatory note, Russian President Vladimir Putin wrote that Trump’s victory could bring “a constructive dialogue between Moscow and Washington on the principles of equality, mutual respect and real consideration.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Ökonomin: „Wir sind in einer privilegierten Lage“

Posted by hkarner - 4. Dezember 2016

InterviewRegina Bruckner, 4. Dezember 2016, 09:00 derstandard.at

Geht es der Wirtschaft gut, rückt sie bei Wahlen in den Hintergrund, sagt Stefanie Walter. Sie erforscht, wo Verlierer und Gewinner der Globalisierung ihr Kreuzerl machen

walter-stefanie-ccDie Folgen der Globalisierung erforscht die politische Ökonomin Stefanie Walter an der Universität Zürich ebenso wie die Frage wer die Gewinner und die Verlierer sind und wie sich das auf das Wahlverhalten auswirkt. Die Rechtspopulisten werden häufiger von Leuten gewählt, die eine niedrigere Bildung haben und die Routinetätigkeiten ausüben. Die Automatisierung habe weit mehr Jobs vernichtet, als die Globalisierung. Die untere Mittelschicht wehre sich derzeit effektiv gegen Abstiegsängste, indem sie etwa für Brexit oder für Trump stimme.

STANDARD: Sie haben sich in 16 Ländern angeschaut, wer von der Globalisierung profitiert und wer verliert. Gab es Überraschungen?

Walter: In allen Ländern sind Hochgebildete, die in internationalisierten Sektoren arbeiten, die absoluten Gewinner: Programmierer im Silicon Valley oder Mitarbeiter in sehr spezialisierten Firmen in Österreich oder in der Schweiz. Unter Druck sind jene, die auch in sehr exponierten Berufen arbeiten, aber niedrig qualifiziert sind. Die Textilindustrie oder Teile der verarbeitenden Industrie sind etwa abgewandert. Ein großer Anteil der Bevölkerung arbeitet aber immer noch in geschützten Sektoren, wie Ärzte, Altenpfleger, Lehrer. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Populismus in Europa: Was die neuen Rechten stark macht

Posted by hkarner - 1. Dezember 2016

Date: 30-11-2016
Source: SPIEGEL

Frankreich, Deutschland, Österreich, die Niederlande – der Zulauf zu Europas neuen Rechten ist ungebrochen. Eine Studie aus 28 Ländern zeigt: Der Erfolg der Populisten speist sich vor allem aus der Angst vor Globalisierung.

Le Pen ccFront-National-Chefin Marine Le Pen

Der Front National um seine Anführerin Marine Le Pen hat bei Frankreichs Präsidentschaftswahl im kommenden Jahr gute Chancen. Gleiches gilt für Islamfeind Geert Wilders mit der Freiheitspartei PVV, wenn die Niederländer 2017 ein neues Parlament wählen. Und dann ist da noch die FPÖ, die in Kürze den österreichischen Bundespräsidenten stellen könnte. Diese Liste lässt sich fortsetzen und zeigt: In vielen Ländern Europas befinden sich rechte und rechtspopulistische Kräfte auf dem Vormarsch.

Um zu verstehen, was die Neurechten für viele Wähler so attraktiv macht, hat die Bertelsmann-Stiftung europaweit nach Einstellung zu den Themen Globalisierung, wirtschaftliche Aussichten und der Unterstützung traditioneller Werte gefragt. Für die Autoren der „Europinions“-Studie ist demnach die Globalisierungsangst der treibende Faktor für Rechtspopulismus. Weit weniger stark wirken sich traditionelle Wertvorstellungen aus.

Europaweit sind die Menschen in der Frage der Globalisierungsangst uneins: Eine Mehrheit der EU-Bürger sieht die internationale Verflechtung von Politik und Wirtschaft als Chance (55 Prozent), 45 Prozent ahnen darin eine Gefahr. Außerdem gilt europaweit: Städter kommen mit der Globalisierung besser zurecht als die Landbevölkerung. Gebildete fürchten sie weniger als Befragte mit vergleichsweise niedrigem Bildungsniveau.

Die Autoren betonen, dass Globalisierung in der öffentlichen Debatte meist eine Chiffre für Automatisierung, Migration und internationales Bankenwesen ist. Der Umfrage zufolge fürchten globalisierungskritische Menschen in erster Linie Einwanderung. Sie sehen Migration häufiger als Problem, haben weniger Kontakt mit Ausländern und äußern häufiger ausländerfeindliche Gefühle. Sie sind skeptischer gegenüber der EU und der Politik im Allgemeinen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Wanted: Equal Opportunity Globalization

Posted by hkarner - 30. November 2016

 An enlightening study by the academic Champion of  Globalization (hfk)

Date: 30-11-2016Milanovic Branko
Source: YaleGlobal: Branko Milanovic

Populist stances are resonating with dissatisfied voters in the wealthiest places including Europe and the United States. The West has posted low growth rates for its middle class over the past 25 years while the average income growth of a median household in Asia during the same period was about four times as high – Asia still has some catching up to do as income levels and gross domestic product per capita for much of the continent are still a fraction of those in the United States or Europe. The problem for wealthy democracies is that most benefits of technological advancement, globalization and economic policy went to the wealthiest and highly skilled, often described as the top 1 percent. “A basic contradiction of the age of globalization is that economic outcomes for increasing numbers of people are determined at the global level, while political action takes place within nation-states,” notes economist Branko Milanovic. Nations can be more adept with policies tackling trade and globalization, but that requires political consensus and more balanced distribution of opportunities. – YaleGlobal

Populists blame Asia’s high growth rates for economic woes rather than policies that reinforce inequality at home

Downside of productivity growth: Developed countries increase productivity by replacing workers with machines, Asians gain with Western investments like iPhone assembly in China Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why Multilateralism Still Matters

Posted by hkarner - 30. November 2016

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Missing the Economic Big Picture

Posted by hkarner - 29. November 2016

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How Donald Trump Can Fight Globalization

Posted by hkarner - 20. November 2016

Date: 18-11-2016
Source: Fortune

Globalization infiltrates every part of business and life, and most citizens may not even notice some of the trends in which they participate. US President Barack Obama noted while in Germany while adding that governments could do more to explain the complexities and ease hardships. “Make America Great Again” and “America First” of the Trump campaign were easy slogans that appealed to voters, especially the working class and others worried about jobs. Research suggests that “actual trends in globalization are much different than the political rhetoric from the 2016 election would suggest,” explains Chris Matthews for Fortune. Growth in cross-border trade has already slowed, and trade agreements can create more jobs than they eliminate. “And there is clear evidence that these other measures of globalization, including immigration to America, the flow of information into the country from globalist forces outside the U.S., and the flow of capital in the form of foreigners buying U.S. assets continues to grow healthily.” Analysts anticipate the Trump campaign to focus on immigration policies, but limits could impose costs in unexpected ways. – YaleGlobal

Globalization involves many complex trends; cross-border trade already slowed in recent years and, combined with technology, contributes to slow job growth

He shouldn’t fight the last war

One of Donald Trump’s most effective slogans during the presidential campaign was “America First.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The third wave of globalisation may be the hardest

Posted by hkarner - 18. November 2016

Date: 17-11-2016
Source: The Economist
Subject: The past and future global economy

First free movement of goods, then ideas. But momentum may stop at the free exchange of people

The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalization.
By Richard Baldwin. Belknap; 329 pages; $29.95 and £22.95.

BILL CLINTON once called globalisation “the economic equivalent of a force of nature, like wind or water”. It pushes countries to specialise and swap, making them richer, and the world smaller. In “The Great Convergence”, Richard Baldwin, a Geneva-based economist, adds an important detail: like wind and water, globalisation is powerful, but can be inconstant or even destructive. Unless beloved notions catch up with reality, politicians will be pushed to make grave mistakes.

In an economist’s dream world, things, ideas and people would flow freely across borders. Reality is stickier, and stuff less mobile—so much so that it trapped humankind’s ancestors into village-level economies. Constraints on trade once bundled consumption and production together, limiting their growth.

Mr Baldwin’s grand theory of globalisation is of a series of unbundlings, driven by sequential collapses in the cost of moving things and ideas across space. From the domestication of the camel around 1,000BC to the first commercial steam engine in 1712, the first great wave of globalisation unbundled production and consumption. From 1820, British prices were set by international demand, and café-goers could sip Chinese tea sweetened with Jamaican sugar. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Goodbye Globalization

Posted by hkarner - 18. November 2016

Date: 17-11-2016
Source: Vice News

The US president-elect plans to increase jobs by ending trade that does not benefit the United States. That assumes the US is self-sufficient and that other countries might go along. Instead, the other countries, especially China as the world’s largest market and soon to be largest economy, will retaliate while possibly continuing trade with one another. Meanwhile, US prices will soar and quality suffer. “The era of globalization was born in the aftermath of World War II, when the United States made the decision that open trade and security guarantees with Japan and NATO would be the only way to avoid another war and counterbalance Soviet expansion,” explains Matt Phillips for Vice News. China’s entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001 had consequences for the developing world along with rising inequality and automation. A first and easy step is killing the Trans-Pacific Partnership, but China will step into the void. Introducing barriers to established trade will take time and draw immediate response from other countries and US firms for which overseas sales generate the bulk of revenues. That includes ExxonMobil, General Electric, Apple and Boeing. – YaleGlobal

Killing the Trans-Pacific Partnership is easy; introducing barriers to established trade is tricky as bulk of revenues for US multinationals are from overseas Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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