Posted by hkarner - 23. Januar 2016
Each year the World Economic Forum convenes government, industry and activist leaders to offer regional and international proposals along with private-public partnerships. Uncertainty and the expectations for “fundamental, radical global shifts” have permeated the 2016 meeting, explains Paul Laudicina for Forbes. “How leaders manage this system shift in years to come will determine the course the world takes, either towards growth, stability, and integration, or towards fracture and contraction in an increasingly protectionist and isolated environment.” Alternatives to the current form of globalization might include islandization, polarization or a new form of globalization. Leaders meeting at Davos may prefer the new form of globalization, though that requires leadership that can articulate a vision, ensuring global and democratic conversations; demonstrate commitment to ideals and the rule of law with accountability and transparency; and forge connections among diverse cultures. Inequality threatens globalization, unless leaders develop agendas and rally citizens behind proposals that offer opportunity for all. – YaleGlobal
Globalization has stalled; prospects for the world may include islandization, polarization or a new form of globalization that requires leadership
Something is different on the Mountain this year. The tone of the Davos dialogue has shifted markedly in the nearly two decades I’ve trekked to the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum. The buzz has morphed from global exuberance in the roaring 90s, to post 9/11 shock, to recession obsession, to this year’s focus on fundamental, radical global shifts in process. But where are we headed? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
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Posted by hkarner - 15. Januar 2016
Konstantins Benkovskis, Julia Woerz 14 January 2016, voxeu
Adviser in the Monetary Policy Department, Bank of Latvia; Assistant Professor, Stockholm School of Economics in Riga
Head of the Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Analysis Unit in the Economic Analysis and Research Department, Oesterreichische Nationalban
Global value chains have increased the complexity of good economic analysis no end. This column assesses the extent to which global value chains change how we think about the world, and argues that the evolution of global market shares is no longer an adequate indicator of a country’s competitiveness in most cases. ‘Made in China’ has changed almost everything.
The proliferation of global production networks introduced an additional degree of complexity into economic analysis, since the outsourcing of production diminishes the domestic component of exports (see e.g. Linden et al. 2009, which was among the first empirical examples of this phenomenon). Thus, data on gross export flows do not represent a country’s role in the world market adequately nowadays. Consequently, there is a need to modify traditional measures of competitiveness (see Koopman et al. 2014 for revealed comparative advantages; or Bems and Johnson 2012, and Bayoumi et al. 2013 for real effective exchange rates). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Benkovskis, Competitiveness, Globalization, Trade, Woerz | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 11. Januar 2016
Ein Interview von Alexander Jung
Lange haben Ökonomen die Globalisierung gefeiert. Jetzt kommen ihnen Zweifel.
Die Digitalisierung sei in ihren positiven Szenarien gar nicht berücksichtigt gewesen, sagt Wirtschaftswissenschaftler Thomas Straubhaar.
Der Hamburger Ökonom Thomas Straubhaar, 58, hat sich eine einjährige Auszeit genommen und die Welt bereist. Er war in den USA, Brasilien, Mexiko und hat dort viel gesehen. Jetzt ist der Schweizer, bis 2014 Präsident des Hamburgischen Weltwirtschaftsinstituts, ernüchtert: Anders als früher glaubt er nicht mehr daran, dass die Globalisierung jedem zugute kommt. Und er hat Zweifel, ob angesichts unsichtbarer Datenströme das Handelsmodell der Ökonomen mit physischen Importen und Exporten überhaupt noch zeitgemäß ist.
SPIEGEL: Der Welthandel wächst kaum noch, die Globalisierung verliert an Dynamik. Wie lange wird diese Schwäche anhalten?
Straubhaar: Der starke Schwung wird wohl auf Dauer wegbleiben. Das liegt nicht an der Konjunktur, sondern an strukturellen Problemen. Als der Kalte Krieg zu Ende ging, war die Wirkung von Milliarden Arbeitern und Konsumenten, die in die Weltwirtschaft eintraten, noch gewaltig. Jetzt lässt der positive Effekt deutlich nach. Und viele Menschen sind enttäuscht über die Folgen der Globalisierung.
SPIEGEL: Verliert die Globalisierung ihren Zauber?
Straubhaar: In den Schwellenländern herrscht mittlerweile große Skepsis gegenüber dem Prinzip offener Märkte. Wir waren überzeugt – auch ich -, dass die Globalisierung helfen würde, die Schere zwischen Arm und Reich zu schließen. Jetzt stellt sich heraus, dass die Ungleichheit vielerorts nicht abgenommen hat.
Das Versprechen, dass die Globalisierung zum Vorteil aller ist, haben die Industrieländer nicht einlösen können. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Globalization, Spiegel, Straubhaar, Trade | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 23. Dezember 2015
Source: The Huffington Post.
Events in one country or one industry can have repercussions that spread throughout the world. Edward Goldberg, a professor who teaches about globalization, identifies five trends for the Huffington Post: China’s economy is slowing, and the government will likely adjust, eliminating inefficient state-owned companies and accepting citizens’ need to adapt to rising unemployment through entrepreneurship. Short-term fixes no longer work in combatting the interrelated challenges of climate change, immigration forced by politics and terrorism – and the global community must coordinate around new regulations and enforcement. The BRICS community – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – failed to coalesce as a major economic force. Countries that have resisted global connections, like Russia, have little to lose and won’t mind disrupting the global order or its norms. Oil prices remain low as much of the world turns its attention to developing alternative energies and stemming climate change. Reduced revenues and reduced value of massive oil reserves in the Middle East, Russia and South America will reduce power for some regimes. – YaleGlobal Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Globalization, Goldberg, Huffington Post | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 28. November 2015
on November 25, 2015 RGE EconoMonitor
Key takeaway – The fundamental structure of the world economy is changing. While the contribution of services to global output is on the rise, investment and productivity remain stagnant, savings keep accumulating, and growth and inflation decline. Meanwhile, globalization has increased co-dependence: a rising number of countries can influence the world’s economic performance and its financial stability. Yet, the international monetary system is neither fostering an efficient allocation of global capital nor preventing currency volatility. As a result, the global economy is in the middle of a “lost decade”: emerging markets (EMs) struggle with slowing growth, a sizeable external debt, capital outflows and depreciating currencies. Europe’s economies suffer from stagnating growth, separatist politics, a heavy sovereign debt, unfavourable demographics, inflexible labor markets, a migrant crisis and religious divides. Until 2020, the price of oil will stay in the US Dollars (USD) 50-60 range. As the shortcut to recovery is an ‘unfair’ mix of orderly debt restructuring and mild inflation, monetary policy normalization will take longer than expected, buoying the financial markets. As a result, the financial system is reaching an unstable equilibrium. The global economy is weak, the markets are strong, but the trade-off between sustained growth and financial stability is likely to continue. While high volatility will favour traders, for fundamental investors returns are likely to be lower than in recent years.
- Is the fundamental structure of the world economy changing? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Globalization, Magnoli Bocchi, RGE Monitor | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 14. Oktober 2015
Economies are built on people’s choices, and the Nobel for economic sciences, the Sverges Riksbank Prize, has been awarded to Angus Deaton for his research in that area. “In a world where we increasingly measure welfare based on what we can consume, Deaton has given policymakers important tools to boost prosperity, particularly in poor countries, while arguing – sometimes controversially – that the world’s poor are in a far better place today than it was decades ago,” suggests Tim Fernholz for Quartz. Over the years Deaton’s research has complicated traditional models and theories by suggesting that aggregate models do not predict individual behavior. He developed models on individuals’ reactions to consumer prices, consumption over time, and poverty and consumption in developing nations. He has championed globalization for lifting millions from poverty, but also pointed to inequality as a dangerous trend and questioned the efficiency of foreign aid for hampering provision of basic services by governments in developing nations. – YaleGlobal
Deaton’s economic research suggests globalization lifts many out of poverty, yet inequality could undermine world’s most successful economies Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Deaton, Globalization, Inequality, Nobel Prize, Quartz | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 17. September 2015
Chris Patten, the last British Governor of Hong Kong and a former EU commissioner for external affairs, is Chancellor of the University of Oxford.
SEP 14, 2015, Project Syndicate
LONDON – The election of Jeremy Corbyn as the new leader of the British Labour Party is a reminder that life is rich with paradox.
Globalization – the web of travel, technology, trade, and information that binds the world ever more closely together – is hardly a new phenomenon. But politics in many developed democracies has lately been disrupted by populist insurgencies seeking to exit this shared reality. What these groups do not seem to recognize is that the alternative they wish for is a fantasy.
From Syriza in Greece to the National Front in France, voters across Europe are being encouraged to believe in a virtual reality shaped by prejudice and uninformed nostalgia. In the United States, this mood first emerged several years ago, fueling the rise of the Tea Party and now enabling the splenetic presidential campaigns of Donald Trump and other Republican candidates who promise to seal America off from the twenty-first century. (The promise is to some extent literal: By building walls along the country’s northern and southern borders, the candidates would defend the American dream from outside contamination.) Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Britain, Corbyn, Globalization, Patten, Project Syndicate | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 8. September 2015
Source: The Washington Post by Robert J. Samuelson
Globalization thrives in financial markets and may even control them. Much focus is on the world’s fastest-growing economies. For example, China’s consumes near half of the world’s aluminum, copper, lead, nickel and zinc, up from 13 percent in 2000, writes economist Robert J. Samuelson for the Washington Post. Reduced demand for oil due to slowed growth in China and an increased US supply has caused oil prices to plummet. Investors act en masse on news of financial events: “Huge amounts of money can shift in a digital instant among countries, currencies and various financial markets,” Samuelson writes. He adds that most countries have removed controls on individuals or companies moving funds across borders. As a result, many countries no longer have control over their interest rates, as suggested by economists with the Bank for International Settlements. Investors quickly cross borders for the best deals, and any nation that tries to renew such controls could be at a disadvantage. – YaleGlobal
Countries struggle to control interest rates as investors react en masse to market events and shift funds across borders
A fascinating but little-noted aspect of the recent financial turmoil is how much it’s been an international event. It started with doubts about China’s economy, symbolized by a tumbling stock market and a surprise devaluation of the renminbi. But the worry quickly spread to all major stock markets, along with a growing unease that the global economy suddenly faced new — though not well-defined — perils. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Finan, Globalization, Samuelson, Washington Post | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 7. September 2015
Klaus Schwab is Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum.
Richard Samans is Head of the Center for the Global Agenda and a member of the managing board of the World Economic Forum.
SEP 7, 2015, Project Syndicate
GENEVA – There is no bigger policy challenge preoccupying leaders around the world than meeting the need to expand participation in the benefits of economic growth and globalization. Indeed, a geographically and ideologically diverse consensus has emerged that a new – or at least much improved – model of economic development will be required if truly greater inclusiveness is to be achieved.
Unfortunately, this political consensus has so far remained aspirational, rather than prescriptive. Policymakers have yet to develop an internationally recognized policy framework – with a corresponding set of indicators and measurable milestones – to guide countries targeting broad-based improvements in living standards, rather than simply continuing to use GDP growth as the bottom-line measure of national economic performance. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Globalization, Growth, Inclusion, Samans, Schwab, Spence, WEF | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 5. September 2015
Source: The Guardian
The stock market declines in China herald a new era with fewer imbalances. The economic slowdown was expected and may signal other countries are developing and restoring capabilities to manufacture. US consumers have eased spending and can no longer be depended on to snap up exports from around the globe. China oversaw a huge economic expansion, lifting many from poverty. The government invested in the country’s future and will continue to post growth rates envied by other nations. Still, double-digit growth could not be sustained, notes an editorial in the Guardian, and the government did not handle the market declines well, going into denial and targeting messengers who delivered bad news. The end is in sight for “a terribly skewed system in which western consumers made up for disappointing wages by borrowing money from Chinese producers, who in turn bought up western bonds, banks and land,” concludes the Guardian, and that is good for both China and the West. – YaleGlobal
A mad system in which the West’s workers make up for poor wages with cheap credit from China is drawing to a close – good riddance Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: china, Globalization, Guardian | Leave a Comment »