Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘GFSR’

Handelskrieg nur Auslöser: Ursache der Rezession ist verfehlte Geldpolitik der Notenbanken

Posted by hkarner - 29. Oktober 2019

Dank an J.G.

DWN, 25/10

Trumps Handelskrieg ist nur der Auslöser der sich anbahnen-den Rezession. Doch die Ursachen liegen tiefer: In der verfehlten Geldpolitik der großen Notenbanken.

Trumps Handelskrieg hat eine globale Wachstumsverlangsamung mit Rezessionsgefahr ausgelöst. Doch die Ursachen der aktuellen Wirtschaftsverlangsamung gehen tiefer. Man kann nicht alles der Trump-Administration oder – innerhalb Europas – dem Brexit anlasten. Es ist viel-mehr die gesamte Politik der letzten Dekaden, welche ein inkohärentes, un-sicheres Gebäude der Weltwirtschaft errichtet hat.

Ein wichtiger Punkt ist die schlechte Qualität des konjunkturellen Aufschwungs seit der Grossen Finanzkrise, eigentlich sogar schon seit der Jahrtausendwende. Die Durchsetzung des sogenannten Freihandels mit China (WTO-Beitritt Dezember 2011) und die Integration der osteuropäi-schen Länder in die Europäische Union waren zunächst primär eine Arbitrage-Gelegenheit vor allem für westliche Großunternehmen und Multinationale, um Löhne, Steuern, Sozialleistungen und Umweltkosten zu sparen beziehungsweise zu drücken. Der Freihandel erfolgte nur in eine Richtung: China schottete seinen Binnenmarkt weiterhin sorgsam ab, wo die Führung dies wollte: Über prohibitive Zölle, und über den Zwang zu joint ventures für ausländische, in China produzierende Unternehmen. Profitiert haben neben diesen Konzernen zum einen China und dessen Zulieferer-Staaten in Asien, zum anderen die Länder Osteuropas. In den Vereinigten Staaten und in Westeuropa ist die Industrie stark geschrumpft – Ausnahme das Auto- und Maschinenbauerland Deutschland sowie einige kleine Länder mit ähnlichen Eigenschaften. Ein wesentlicher Grund ist auch, dass in den USA und in Europa seit Jahrzehnten zu wenig, teilweise viel zu wenig, in die Infrastruktur investiert wird. Kein Wunder ist das Wirtschaftswachstum der letzten beiden Dekaden in vielen Industrieländern von einer schwachen Investitionstätigkeit begleitet, nota-bene trotz der nominell und real niedrigsten Zinsen seit dem Zweiten Weltkrieg. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Monitoring Global Financial Stability

Posted by hkarner - 29. August 2019

By Tobias Adrian, Dong He, Nellie Liang, and Fabio Natalucci

“It’s awful. Why did nobody see it coming?” asked Queen Elizabeth II in November 2008 during a visit to the London School of Economics, wondering why nobody had predicted the Global Financial Crisis. The bewilderment wasn’t unique to the British monarchy; across the world, many asked the same question.

Ten years on, it remains difficult to forecast financial instability. However, progress is afoot to improve the understanding of important links between the financial sector and the economy. We now understand better how financial vulnerabilities can amplify negative shocks and hurt output and employment.

Twice a year, the IMF comes out with its latest analysis of global financial stability risks in the Global Financial Stability Report, where it continues to initiate improvements in a framework for financial stability monitoring. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Drivers of Declining Labor Share of Income

Posted by hkarner - 11. April 2017

Posted on by iMFdirect

By Mai Chi Dao, Mitali Das, Zsoka Koczan, and Weicheng Lian

After being largely stable in many countries for decades, the share of national income paid to workers has been falling since the 1980s. Chapter 3 of the April 2017 World Economic Outlook finds that this trend is driven by rapid progress in technology and global integration.

IMF.WEOChap3.Apr2017_chart1

Labor’s share of income declines when wages grow more slowly than productivity, or the amount of output per hour of work. The result is that a growing fraction of productivity gains has been going to capital. And since capital tends to be concentrated in the upper ends of the income distribution, falling labor income shares are likely to raise income inequality.IMF.WEOChap3.Apr2017_chart2.jpg

Trending down

In advanced economies, labor income shares began trending down in the 1980s. They reached their lowest level of the past half century just prior to the global financial crisis of 2008, and have not recovered materially since. Labor income shares now are almost 4 percentage points lower than they were in 1970.

Despite more limited data, labor shares have also declined in emerging market and developing economies since the early 1990s. This is especially the case for the larger economies in this group. In China, for example, despite impressive gains in poverty reduction over the past two decades, labor shares still fell by almost 3 percentage points.

Indeed, as growth remains subpar in many countries, an increasing recognition that the gains from growth have not been broadly shared has strengthened a backlash against economic integration and bolstered support in favor of inward-looking policies. This is especially the case in several advanced economies.

Our study takes an in-depth look at the symptoms and drivers of this downward trend in labor share of income.

Technology: a key driver in advanced economies Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How an Extended Period of Low Growth Could Reshape the Financial Industry

Posted by hkarner - 8. April 2017

Posted on by iMFdirect

By Gaston Gelos and Jay Surti

Versions in Français (French), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

What happens if advanced economies remain stuck in a long-lasting funk marked by tepid growth, low interest rates, aging populations and stagnant productivity? Japan offers an example of the impact on banks, and our analysis suggests that there could also be far-reaching consequences for insurance companies, pension funds, and asset-management firms.

You might argue that this scenario of economic malaise has already materialized; after all, interest rates and economic growth have been low since the financial crisis in 2008. The question is whether the post-crisis landscape represents a temporary departure from the pace of growth we’ve come to expect since World War II, or whether it’s the start of a new normal.

Notwithstanding the recent increase in long-term yields in some advanced economies, the Japanese experience suggests that we cannot be sure whether an exit from a low-growth/low interest rate trap is imminent or permanent. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Germany-IMF Staredown on Greece: The Election Calculus

Posted by hkarner - 14. Februar 2017

Posted on February 13, 2017 by Yves Smith

The next big round of extend and pretend for Greece isn’t set to take place until July, yet serious jockeying between the key actors, the IMF versus the European countries acting as lenders, is underway now. Why? The politicians and Eurocrats are keen to get a deal, at least in general terms, agreed now so as to keep Greece out of the headlines as much as possible for an upcoming series of European elections.

Of course, the European view of “getting to a deal” means knuckling the IMF into joining a new round of financing. As we’ve discussed since 2015, the Fund’s staff has been in open revolt, and has leaked important internal documents to the press more than once, making clear the agency’s view that Greek debts are not sustainable (note that these leaks may have been sanctioned at a more senior level). By the Fund’s own rules, that means it cannot provide additional loans. The latest Financial Sustainability Report reached the same conclusion, although it did uncharacteristically say that some fund directors (as in board members) did not agree with that view.

If the IMF does not provide more dough, the consequences are serious, as we’ve stressed and Wolfgang Munchau underscores in a comment at the Financial Times: Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Three Risks to the Global Financial System as Debt Hits Record Levels

Posted by hkarner - 7. Oktober 2016

Date: 06-10-2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal

IMF urges major restructuring of the European banking system and sees emerging-market corporate defaults on the rise

Deutsche Bank CC1Deutsche Bank headquarters in Frankfurt. Like other European banks, the German financial giant has come under pressure from investors wary of the company’s ability to turn a profit.

In recent years, the global financial system has weathered Brexit, China’s deceleration and emerging market mayhem.

But there’s no reason to be complacent, the International Monetary Fund warns in its latest reports on global financial stability and the fiscal health of economies around the world.

“The passing of these near-term risks has seen volatility fall and equity prices in advanced economies rise,” says Peter Dattels, deputy director of the fund’s monetary and capital markets department. “But medium-term risks are building because we are entering a new era of challenges.”

An unprecedented era of ultralow interest rates and feeble growth has led to a record buildup in global debt levels. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Financial Risks Rise Amid Uneven Global Economic Recovery

Posted by hkarner - 16. April 2015

Posted on by iMFdirect

GFSR

By José Viñals

The three main messages from this Global Financial Stability Report are:

  1. Risks to the global financial system have risen since October and have rotated to parts of the financial system where they are harder to assess and harder to address.
  2. Advanced economies need to enhance the traction of monetary policies to achieve their goals, while managing undesirable financial side effects of low interest rates.
  3. To withstand the global crosscurrents of lower oil prices, rising U.S. policy rates, and a stronger dollar, emerging markets must increase the resilience of their financial systems by addressing domestic vulnerabilities.

Let me now discuss these findings in detail. 

Financial stability risks have risen amid a moderate and uneven global economic recovery—with rates of inflation that are too low in many countries. Divergent growth and monetary policies have increased tensions in global financial markets and caused rapid and volatile moves in exchange rates and interest rates over the past six months. In part, this situation results from the legacy of weakened and incomplete repair of private sector balance sheets. Risks are also rotating—away from banks to shadow banks, from solvency to market liquidity risks, and from advanced economies to emerging markets. 

In light of this, five key challenges must be met to safeguard global financial stability. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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IWF kritisiert langsame Bankensanierung im Euroraum

Posted by hkarner - 15. April 2015

ANDRÁS SZIGETVARI AUS WASHINGTON, derstandard.at, 15. April 2015, 15:00

Nach Angaben des IWF ist das internationale Finanzsystem trotz der verstärkten Bemühungen der Aufseher alles andere als saniert

Zwei Schritte vorwärts, einer zurück: Nachdem der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) sich am Dienstag optimistisch gezeigt und die Wachstumsprognose für die Eurozone angehoben hatte, machte der Fonds am Mittwoch wieder mit einer Warnung auf sich aufmerksam. Nach Angaben des IWF ist das internationale Finanzsystem nämlich trotz der verstärkten Bemühungen der Aufseher heute alles andere als saniert. Im Gegenteil, die globalen Risiken haben wieder zugenommen, heißt es in dem „Global Financial Stability Report“, dem Flaggschiffbericht des IWF, über das weltweite Finanzsystem.

So warnt der Fonds, dass sich die Qualität der Bankbilanzen in Europa weiter verschlechtert habe, wenn auch langsamer als in den vergangenen Jahren. Die Summe der faulen Kredite beläuft sich allein in den Büchern europäischer Banken auf 900 Milliarden Euro. Das entspricht beinahe dem Dreifachen der österreichischen Wirtschaftsleistung. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Systemic risk in Europe: Too big to save

Posted by hkarner - 7. Oktober 2014

Robert Engle (Stern School of Business), Eric Jondeau, Michael Rockinger (both Lausanne University) 20 September 2014, voxeu

The Global Financial Stability Report of the IMF (2009) defines systemic risk as “a risk of disruption to financial services that is caused by an impairment of all or parts of the financial system and that has the potential to cause serious negative consequences for the real economy”. With the recent financial crisis, interest in the concept of systemic risk has grown. The rising globalisation of financial services has strengthened the interconnection between financial institutions. While this tighter interdependence may have fostered efficiency in the global financial system, it has also increased the risk of cross-market and cross-country disruptions.

Measures of systemic risk are generally based on market data. Two questions may be answered with such data because historical prices contain expectations about future events.

  • First, how likely is it that extreme events will occur in the current financial markets?
  • Second, how closely connected are financial institutions with one another and the rest of the economy? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Global Financial Stability: Beginning To Turn The Corner

Posted by hkarner - 10. April 2014

Posted on by iMFdirect

GFSRBy José Viñals

Global financial stability is improving—we have begun to turn the corner.

But it is too early to declare victory as there is a need to move beyond liquidity dependence—the central theme of our report—to overcome the remaining challenges to global stability.

Progress

We have made substantial strides over the past few years, and this is now paying dividends.  As Olivier Blanchard discussed at yesterday’s press conference of the World Economic Outlook, the U.S. economy is gaining strength, setting the stage for the normalization of monetary policy.

In Europe, better policies have led to substantial improvements in market confidence in both sovereigns and banks.

In Japan, Abenomics has made a good start as deflationary pressures are abating and confidence for the future is rising. And emerging market economies, having gone through several recent bouts of turmoil, are adjusting policies in the right direction.

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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