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Posts Tagged ‘Gerlach’

Lagarde’s ECB Checklist

Posted by hkarner - 29. Juli 2019

Stefan Gerlach

Stefan Gerlach is Chief Economist at EFG Bank in Zurich and a former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Ireland. He is also a former Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Secretary to the Committee on the Global Financial System at the BIS.

After years in which the European Council acted as if there were no qualified women to lead the European Central Bank, it has finally abandoned that ludicrous excuse and appointed Christine Lagarde to the position. Lagarde is an eminently qualified and promising president-designate; but to have a successful tenure, she will need to head off her critics‘ concerns.

ZURICH – The surprise nomination of Christine Lagarde to serve as the next president of the European Central Bank has many observers, including me, and disappointed others. Those who are pleased feel that Lagarde’s eight-year term as Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund makes her uniquely qualified to forge agreement within the ECB’s Governing Council on many of the contentious issues it faces.

Chief among these are the eurozone’s current downturn and the potential review of its monetary-policy framework that has been proposed by Olli Rehn, Governor of the Bank of Finland. Considering that the ECB’s most influential members appear to have different views about the framework and how it might be changed, reaching a consensus will not be easy.Nonetheless, those who support Lagarde’s nomination believe that her time serving as France’s finance minister has left her ideally suited to work with the eurozone member states’ governments – and to convince them to marshal a collective fiscal response in the event of a severe downturn. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Drei Lektionen aus der quantitativen Lockerung in Europa

Posted by hkarner - 4. Februar 2019

Stefan Gerlach

Stefan Gerlach is Chief Economist at EFG Bank in Zurich and Former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland. He has also served as Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and as Secretary to the Committee on the Global Financial System at the BIS.

ZÜRICH – Da die Europäische Zentralbank die quantitative Lockerung (QE) kürzlich beendet hat, ist dies ein geeigneter Zeitpunkt, um über die Auswirkungen der Politik nachzudenken. Drei Schlussfolgerungen scheinen offensichtlich: Die Vermögenskäufe der EZB hatten erhebliche makroökonomische Vorteile; die politischen Kosten der QE waren viel höher als erwartet; und die ganze Episode war für die Bundesbank wirklich schlimm.

Durch die Senkung der Kosten von Bankkrediten durch die QE förderte die EZB die Kreditvergabe an kleine Unternehmen und Haushalte in der gesamten Eurozone. Dies gab dem Wirtschaftswachstum einen wichtigen Impuls, der zu einem deutlichen Rückgang der Arbeitslosigkeit und einem Aufwärtsdruck auf die Lohnkosten führte. Obwohl die Kerninflation gestiegen ist, bleibt die zugrunde liegende Inflation schwach, was bedeutet, dass die EZB eine expansive Geldpolitik beibehalten muss. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Time to Untie the ECB’s Hands

Posted by hkarner - 16. Juli 2018

Stefan Gerlach

Stefan Gerlach is Chief Economist at EFG Bank in Zurich and Former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland. He has also served as Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and as Secretary to the Committee on the Global Financial System at the BIS.

The European Central Bank is now signaling its intention to end quantitative easing this year, indicating that it expects eurozone inflation to reach its target of „below, but close to, 2%.“ But as the ECB prepares for the next crisis, it would be well advised to revisit its longstanding price-stability objective.

ZURICH – The European Central Bank’s recent announcement that it will try to end asset purchases by this December means that it has confidence in its ability to achieve price stability. But those who decided that price stability should be the ECB’s single, overriding policy goal may have shot themselves in the foot, not least by denying policymakers much-needed flexibility.

The ECB defines price stability as inflation “below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.” That is a lower inflation rate than even the Bundesbank achieved during its celebrated pre-euro history, and it is a tighter target than virtually all other central banks pursue. For some, too much of a good thing is apparently wonderful. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Sky-High Monetary Policy

Posted by hkarner - 19. November 2016

Stefan Gerlachgerlach

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The Global Financial System’s Weakened Defenses

Posted by hkarner - 10. Mai 2016

Photo of Stefan Gerlach

Stefan Gerlach

Stefan Gerlach is Chief Economist at BSI Bank in Zurich and Former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland. He has also served as Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and as Secretary to the Committee on the Global Financial System at the BIS.

MAY 9, 2016, Project Syndicate

ZURICH – Eighty-five years ago this month, Credit-Anstalt, by far the largest bank in Austria, collapsed. By that July, banks in Egypt, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Poland, Romania, and Turkey had experienced runs. A banking panic hit the United States in August, though the sources of that panic may have been domestic. In September, banks in the United Kingdom experienced large withdrawals. The parallels to the 2008 collapse of the US investment bank Lehman Brothers are strong – and crucial for understanding today’s financial risks.

For starters, neither the collapse of Credit-Anstalt nor that of Lehman Brothers caused all of the global financial tumult that ensued. Those collapses and the subsequent problems were symptoms of the same disease: a weak banking system. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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