Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘fiscal union’

Fiscal Arrangements in Federations: Four Lessons for Europe

Posted by hkarner - 27. Februar 2015

Posted on by iMFdirect

Martine GuerguilBy Martine Guerguil 

Does the European Union need closer fiscal integration, and in particular a stronger fiscal center, to become more resilient to economic shocks? A new IMF book, Designing a European Fiscal Union: Lessons from the Experience of Fiscal Federations, published by Routledge, examines the experience of 13 federal states to help inform the debate on this issue. It analyzes in detail their practices in devolving responsibilities from the subnational to the central level, compares them to those of the European Union, and draws lessons for a possible future fiscal union in Europe.

The book sets out to answer three sets of questions: (1) What is the role of centralized fiscal policies in federations, and hence the size, features, and functions of the central budget? (2) What institutional arrangements are used to coordinate fiscal policy between the federal and subnational levels? (3) What are the links between federal and subnational debt, and how have subnational financing crises been handled, when they occurred?

Federations have addressed these issues in many different ways, but four features stand out when comparing their practices to those of the European Union. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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HSBC-Chefvolkswirt King: „Geldpolitik wird zum Schmerzmittel mit Suchtfaktor“

Posted by hkarner - 30. Juli 2013

von Saskia Littmann, Handelsblatt.com

25.07.2013, 10:21 Uhr

Stephen King, Chefvolkswirt der britischen Großbank HSBC, sieht schwarz. In Europa erwartet er King CCwirtschaftlichen Stillstand. Er warnt vor überzogenen Erwartungen und rechnet mit Blasen an den Finanzmärkten.

King money runs outHerr King, in Ihrem neuen Buch “When the money runs out” stellen Sie die gewagte These auf, dass die Volkswirtschaften Europas und auch die Wirtschaft der USA in den nächsten Jahren kaum noch wachsen werden. Warum so pessimistisch?
King: Der Westen erlebte seine goldenen Jahre von den Sechzigern bis Ende des letzten Jahrtausends. Vor allem die Globalisierung und der damit verbundene zunehmende Welthandel sorgten für Wachstum. Nach dem Ende des Kalten Krieges kam dann der Handel mit dem Osten hinzu, wieder profitierten Exportnationen wie Deutschland. Zwar werden die weltweiten Handelsströme weiter wachsen, Europa und auch die USA werden aber nicht die größten Profiteure sein.

Warum nicht? Schließlich gehen Sie davon aus, dass aufstrebende Märkte wie Asien oder Südamerika in Zukunft weiter stark wachsen werden. Davon müsste doch auch der Westen profitieren?

Nein, diesmal werden aus meiner Sicht andere die größten Stücke vom Kuchen bekommen. Der zusätzliche Handel wird sich hauptsächlich zwischen Asien, dem mittleren Osten, vielen afrikanischen Ländern und Lateinamerika abspielen.

Aber warum sollte eine exportorientierte Volkswirtschaft wie die deutsche nicht von der wachsenden Wirtschaftskraft der Schwellenländer profitieren?

Einerseits hat Deutschland bereits vom Aufschwung der Schwellenländer profitiert, insbesondere durch das Wirtschaftswachstum in China sind die Exporte deutlich gestiegen. Andererseits passen unsere Produkte nicht zu den Bedürfnissen einer neu entstehenden Käuferschicht. In Ländern wie Indien oder Peru sind vermutlich gerade zu Beginn des Wachstums weniger die deutschen Oberklasse-Luxuslimousinen gefragt, sondern einfache und vor allem günstige Autos. Die werden dann im Land selber produziert oder eher aus China importiert als aus Deutschland. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Things That Draghi Didn’t Say in His Milan Speech

Posted by hkarner - 18. November 2012

Author: Paolo Manasse · November 16th, 2012 · RGE EconoMonitor

On Thursday, November 15, ECB head Mario Draghi gave an interesting speech in Milan, at the Bocconi University’s ceremony for the new academic year. Interesting both for what he said and for what he didn’t say. The narrative of the crisis was more or less as follows.

In the past few years, markets underestimated the consequences of the irresponsible economic policies (fiscal policies in Greece, Italy, Spain and Ireland credit) and lack of structural reforms (Greece, Portugal, Italy) in many Eurozone countries, but now the chickens have come home to roost and markets have freaked out: interest rates reflect the expectation that the peripheral countries will leave the Euro. This has fragmented the inter-bank market in Europe and prevented the ECB’s low interest rates policy to be transmitted to households and businesses in the peripheral countries. The ensuing credit crunch in these countries has triggered a vicious circle of reduced consumption, investment, GDP, tax revenue, higher deficits and further increases in interest rates. This spiral occurred, according to Draghi, despite the budgetary consolidation and structural reforms that were implemented in many countries. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Don’t expect too much from EZ fiscal union – and complete the unfinished integration of European capital markets!

Posted by hkarner - 13. November 2012

Professor of International Trade and Finance at the Department of Economics, University of Zurich

Mathias Hoffmann, 9 November 2012

How do members of existing monetary unions share risk? Drawing on a decade of research, this column argues that fiscal transfers in fact make a limited contribution to economic coherence. In the context of Europe’s current crisis, the evidence suggests that unfinished capital market integration must be completed if we wish to see adequate and effective risk sharing.

The sovereign debt crisis apparently suggests that Eurozone economies should now move substantially closer towards fiscal union. Current policy discussions revolve much more around how such a fiscal union should be designed than whether fiscal union can solve Europe’s underlying problems of economic coherence. What can we expect from a fiscal union? Aren’t private capital markets better suited to economic coherence? Even within well-established monetary unions, such as the US, it is clear that fiscal transfers make a limited contribution to economic coherence compared to private capital markets. Europe needs better capital market integration.

The limits of fiscal transfers

Fiscal transfers help countries maintain their standard of living in regional recessions; the fallout from shocks, such as those which have recently hit Greece and Spain, could be cushioned if such countries receive transfers from other countries that are doing better. The need for such ‘fiscal smoothing’ mechanisms was, from the very outset, at the heart of the debate about the creation of a monetary union in Europe (cf. literature surveyed in Commission of the European Communities 1990). Early evidence suggested that fiscal smoothing is the main mechanism alleviating economic asymmetries in the US (cf. Sala-i-Martin and Sachs 1992; von Hagen 1992). Some academics have also drawn attention to the potential for additional smoothing that could come from the integration of private capital markets (cf.Atkeson and Bayoumi 1993). But this early literature could not provide a conclusive, quantitative answer to the question of what the relative roles of private capital markets and fiscal smoothing are likely to be in a monetary union. Yet, this question is of paramount importance for understanding the future of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The current debate largely overlooks the empirical fact that the role of fiscal transfers is dwarfed by the role of capital markets in established monetary unions such as the US. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Evolving Euro

Posted by hkarner - 13. September 2012

Authors: Andris Strazds & Thomas Grennes · September 12th, 2012 , RGE EconoMonitor

Andris Strazds is a senior economist at Nordea Bank and a part-time faculty member at the Stockholm School of Economics in Riga, Latvia. More ›

In a previous post we argued that the current fiscal relationships in the euro zone are not sustainable as the members have moved away from the „no bailout” system by implicitly accepting collective liability for a part of the debts while strict conditionality has not always followed. We also claimed that there are only two ways to move to a stable fiscal relationship either to 1) move towards a tighter fiscal union with the member states giving up more of their fiscal sovereignty while the EFSF/ESM and the ECB would offer temporary support or 2) to explicitly move back to the „no bailout” system by letting the weakest members default. Finally, we stated that we felt that the move towards a tighter fiscal union was the less risky alternative as defaults might be followed by exits from the EZ and political turmoil and that might ignite a process of disintegration in the EU that would risk running out of control.

Now the EZ has taken several further steps towards a tighter fiscal union. The European Commission has outlined its plan to create a common supervisor for all EZ banks. The German constitutional court has allowed ratification of the European Stability Mechanism and rejected complaints against it as largely unfounded. The European Central Bank last week offered its support to governments that would enter into a macroeconomic adjustment program with the EFSF/ESM and accept strict conditionality with respect to bringing their fiscal houses in order and implementing structural reforms. While the EZ might now be closer to turning the corner, there are several important issues that remain untackled or insufficiently addressed, both with respect to designing Eurozone 2.0 and dealing with the current emergencies.

Fighting the fires of debt overhang and youth unemployment

A key issue in the EZ going forward is how to reignite growth. While the Compact for Growth and Jobs adopted by the European Council on 29 June outlined a number of steps such as continuing structural reforms and raising the lending capacity of the European Investment Bank, there is still insufficient attention to several key issues impacting growth.

One of them is the overhang of public debt. Even if further increase in debt to GDP ratios in the EZ is soon halted, in several problem countries the debt to GDP levels will be above the 77-90% range beyond which the public debt burden has been shown to have significant negative effect on growth (see e.g. Caner et al. and Reinhart and Rogoff). This means that the public debt levels have to be brought down by means of either sizeable privatization of state and municipal assets, which could be a condition in the macroeconomic adjustment program, or by way of debt restructuring, although the latter is exactly what the European leaders have so far been trying to avoid with the sole exception of Greece. However, debt restructuring does not necessarily have to happen on the state level, it can also take place on the municipal level.

The other key area that we believe is insufficiently covered is dealing with youth unemployment. Here among other things it should be possible to learn more from the dual system of vocational training in Germany where apprenticeships in companies are successfully combined with formal vocational school education. Another policy option is temporarily (for example, for up to a year) exempting young people with limited or no previous full-time work experience and their employers from making social security contributions when hiring them, thereby significantly lowering the marginal cost of employing a young person who has just finished school. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Kontrolle der Haushalte Merkel forciert neuen EU-Vertrag

Posted by hkarner - 26. August 2012

Date: 26-08-2012

Die Pläne der Kanzlerin für einen neuen EU-Vertrag nehmen konkrete Formen an. Nach SPIEGEL-Informationen will Angela Merkel noch in diesem Jahr ein neues rechtliches Fundament für die EU ausarbeiten. Viele Mitgliedsländer lehnen den Vorstoß jedoch vehement ab.

Berlin/Brüssel – Die Bundesregierung will die europäische Integration vorantreiben. Die Staats- und Regierungschefs sollen nach den Plänen von Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel noch in diesem Jahr einen Konvent beschließen, der ein neues rechtliches Fundament für die EU ausarbeitet. Das hat der europapolitische Berater Merkels, Nikolaus Meyer-Landrut, nach Informationen des SPIEGEL bei Gesprächen in Brüssel klar gemacht.

Ein konkreter Termin für den Auftakt des Konvents soll bei einem geplanten Gipfeltreffen im Dezember festgelegt werden. Merkel drängt schon seit längerer Zeit darauf, den in der Euro-Gruppe beschlossenen Fiskalpakt um eine politische Union zu ergänzen. Dadurch könnte beispielsweise der Europäische Gerichtshof das Recht erhalten, die Haushalte der Mitgliedsländer zu überwachen und Defizitsünder zu bestrafen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Die Europäische Fiskalunion – Gedanken zur Entwicklung der Eurozone

Posted by hkarner - 19. Juli 2012

Hans-Werner Sinn
Sohmen Lecture 2012
Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
26. April 2012, Große Aula der Universität
Überarbeitet, Stand: 3. Juli 2012.
1. Der geplatzte Traum
2. Primat der Politik
3. Der Verlust der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und die Selbsthilfe mit der Notenpresse
4. Deutschland in der Target-Falle
5. Der ESM
6. Der Fiskalpakt
7. Wirklich Rettung? – Eine unbequeme Dichotomie der EZB-Politik
8. Zwei Modelle für Europa
9. Der EEAG-Vorschlag: Versicherung mit Selbstbehalt
10. Wie es weitergeht
11. Ein gemeinsamer Bundesstaat


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Risks to Financial Stability Increase, Bold Action Needed

Posted by hkarner - 18. Juli 2012

Author: Jose Vinals · July 17th, 2012 · IMF Direct

Our latest update of the Global Financial Stability Report has three key messages.

First, financial stability risks have increased, because of escalating funding and market pressures and a weak growth outlook.

Second, the measures agreed at the recent European leaders’ summit provide significant steps to address the immediate crisis, but more is needed. Timely implementation and further progress on banking and fiscal unions must be a priority.

And third, time is running out. Now is the moment for strong political leadership, because tough decisions will need to be made to restore confidence and ensure lasting financial stability in both advanced and emerging economies. It is time for action.

Now, why have financial stability risks increased?

First, government bond yields in Southern Europe have sharply increased, while funding conditions for many European banks have deteriorated. The beneficial effects of the European Central Bank’s extraordinary long-term refinancing operations have decreased in recent months, amid renewed policy uncertainty and growing concerns about the health of banks. This has led to a substantial flight to safe assets.

Second, financial fragmentation has exacerbated the adverse feedback loop between weak banks and governments, and threatens to undermine the currency union. Private capital outflows have continued to erode the foreign investor base for government debt in countries such as Italy and Spain. Governments have increased their reliance on domestic banks to finance their public debt. At the same time, these banks have increasingly turned to the European Central Bank to meet their liquidity needs as wholesale funding markets remain closed to them.

Third, sovereign and bank funding pressures have spilled over to the corporate sector in the periphery of the euro area. These companies have seen rising wholesale funding costs and a drop in bank lending. They are also facing a large amount of maturing bonds in the near term, which will likely exacerbate their funding squeeze.

Finally, growth prospects in other advanced economies and emerging markets are a bit weaker. This has left them somewhat more vulnerable to spillovers from the euro area. It also reduces their ability to address home-grown fiscal and financial vulnerabilities. Uncertainties about the fiscal outlook in the United States present a particular latent risk to global financial stability. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Je grösser die Krise, desto lauter der Ruf nach Zentralisierung – warum dies ein Schwachsinn ist

Posted by hkarner - 10. Juli 2012

Helmut F. Karner, 10/7

Bei den Eurokraten wundert es ja nicht – die sind verblendet, weil sie in einem völlig abgehobenen Umfeld arbeiten. So haben z.B. auch die in der Eurokratie gelandeten Herren Hahn und Molterer (“europäische Wirtschaftsregierung”) kürzlich durchaus eigenartige Meinungen zum Thema von sich gegeben. Was mich aber auch bei sonst so vernünftigen Menschen wie Daniel Gros oder Nouriel Roubini wundert, ist, dass sie die Lösungen immer nur auf einer übergeordneten hierarchischen Ebene sehen. Daher Fiskalunion, Bankenunion, zentrale Bankenaufsicht, Eurobonds, etc.

Ich habe geglaubt, es gibt nach dem Beschluss der EU-Staatschefs vom Juni 2009 bereits seit 2011 eine europäischen Bankenaufsicht, die EBA. Und wie funktioniert die bisher: gar nicht. Zahnlos, den Bilanzschönungen der Banken ausgeliefert, ihr Banken-Stresstest war nur lusitg, alle spanischen Banken kamen durch.

Gibt es nicht schon seit Dezember 2011 den sogenannten “Sixpack” der EU-Commission zur Kontrolle der staatlichen Budgets? Ergebnis? Unrealistische Ziele, laufende Verfehlungen!

Ich erinnere mich an meine eigene Karriere: Solange man im Headquarter arbeitet, denkt man zentralistisch.

Aber die Zeiten des Zentralismus sind vorbei – genauso wie die Nationastaaten ein Relikt einer damals notwendigen Denke zur Gründung vor 200 Jahren sind. der heutige Megatrend heisst auch klar nicht Globalisierung (kluge Menschen sagen schon länger “borderless” oder “worldly” dazu), der heutige Megatrend ist eindeutig die Regionalisierung. So hat Richard Florida schon 2007 nachgewiesen, dass sich heute 62% des weltweiten BIP (und mehr als 80% wissenschaftlicher Spitzenleistungen) auf 40 Regionen konzentrieren, in denen allerdings nur 17,7% der Weltbevölkerung leben. Diese Regionen überschreiten halt manchmal Staatsgrenzen, wie die Nr. 25 (Vienna-Bratislava-Budapest Region) beweist.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Die Fiskalunion – einfach erklärt

Posted by grobol - 2. Juli 2012

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