Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Finanzkrise’

Europe’s New Defining Moment

Posted by hkarner - 12. April 2020

Date: 12‑04‑2020

Source: Project Syndicate by Xavier Vives

Xavier Vives is Professor of Economics and Finance at IESE Business School and the author of Competition and Stability in Banking. 

The COVID‑19 pandemic represents a major opportunity for the European Union and the eurozone to act decisively on a common problem, thereby strengthening the bloc’s solidarity and integration. So far, however, European leaders have failed to seize it.

BARCELONA – The European Union and the eurozone are approaching their second defining moment in a decade. The first was the debt crisis that started in 2010 and was quelled by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s July 2012 pledge that the ECB was ready to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro. The ECB backed up Draghi’s declaration by introducing the outright monetary transactions (OMT) scheme, an emergency sovereign‑bond‑purchasing program that fortunately never had to be used.

The EU then established a banking union, with the ECB assuming the role of bank supervisor and a common resolution mechanism dealing with failing institutions. But this union is still incomplete, because the resolution backstop is insufficient for a major crisis and there is no common deposit‑insurance scheme. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How sick might banks get?

Posted by hkarner - 11. April 2020

Date: 08‑04‑2020

Source: The Economist

They have entered this crisis in better health than the previous one

From ebenezer scrooge to Gru in “Despicable Me”, the villain redeemed is a time‑honoured trope in fiction. There has been much talk lately of bankers enjoying a similar rehabilitation. Reckless overextension by lenders was the root cause of the financial crisis of 2007‑09. This time the blame lies with a microbe, not moneymen, and banks are seen as potentially part of the solution, not least as conduits for massive state support for stricken firms and households.

The corona‑crisis does indeed give banks a chance to improve their image. But it also presents them with some painful dilemmas and, worse, may ravage their bottom lines. Michael Corbat, boss of Citigroup, has warned that banks like his have to tread a “fine line” between supporting clients and undermining financial stability. They must conserve capital while also keeping dividend‑dependent investors sweet. However they handle such choices, the risk of hefty losses looms: bank shares have fallen by twice as much as the stockmarket this year on fears of rising defaults.

The industry went into the crunch in decent shape. Capital cushions, depleted going into the last crisis, have since been plumped up. Banks have also been made less vulnerable to funding runs. This time the system has creaked but not buckled. Early evidence suggests that post‑2009 efforts to push liquidity risk from banks into capital markets have worked, and to the extent that risk has rebounded it has been largely absorbed by central banks through their market‑support programmes, not by commercial banks, says Huw van Steenis of ubs, a Swiss lender.

Under those schemes, and their own steam, banks have increased lending dramatically, especially in America (see chart). In March public companies there drew down $191bn from bank credit lines, after taking next to nothing in January and February. The odd one out is China, where loan growth is similar to last year’s rate. In 2008‑09 officials arm‑twisted lenders into leading stimulus efforts. They may fear that another such push could break them. Chinese banks’ assets have ballooned to 285% of gdp, from 195% in 2007.

To encourage banks to lend more and offer forbearance, regulators in the West have rushed to relax or delay rules brought in after the financial crisis. These cover everything from loan‑loss accounting to the thickness of capital buffers (see chart). By one estimate, such (presumably temporary) regulatory forbearance has created $5trn of lending capacity. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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An imaginative template for dealing with the cash crunch

Posted by hkarner - 2. April 2020

Date: 26‑03‑2020

Source: The Economist: Buttonwood

The world of distressed lending offers a guide

Take yourself back, if you can manage it, to a more tranquil time—January, say. Imagine a smallish restaurant chain that had a bad Christmas. Its owner borrowed heavily to expand only to find its new outlets were slow to attract customers. The chain cannot meet its interest and other costs. A consultancy says $10m is needed to tide the firm over until its problems are fixed. The bank says it will forgo interest payments worth $5m, if the owner kicks in $5m of equity capital. A deal is struck.

Fast‑forward a few weeks and imagine a similar chain that is temporarily shut down because of the covid‑19 virus. The firm has no revenue, but it still has fixed costs. The hypothetical January deal is a template for dealing with the problem. But in a broader crisis, things are always trickier. The bank’s balance‑sheet is stretched to the limit. The stockmarket crash has taken a bite from the owner’s wealth. And she is reluctant to sell a stake in the business.

An alternative is to turn to specialist private‑credit funds. These are vehicles backed by long‑term investors, such as insurance firms, sovereign‑wealth funds and university endowments, which lend directly to companies, much as a bank would. Some will have discrete distressed‑lending or “special‑situation” arms. Many more are prepared to put up capital when others won’t. And everything is a special situation now. So the mindset and methods of these specialists will need to be broadly applied. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The West’s COVID-19 Learning Curve

Posted by hkarner - 30. März 2020

Daniel Gros is Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies.

If central bankers and governments can keep financial markets working and prevent mass bankruptcies during the COVID-19 pandemic, then the now unavoidable global recession could be followed by a vigorous recovery once the virus has been contained. But protecting public health requires Western societies to learn and adapt quickly.

BERKELEY – Politicians sometimes belittle military leaders with the charge that they always fight the last war. But that potted wisdom applies equally to policymakers – and it’s not always a bad thing.

For example, because the memory of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) remains fresh, governments and central banks have a keen sense that financial markets might collapse at any time. Faced with the COVID-19 pandemic, they are using every lever at their disposal to avoid a repeat of the financial-market freeze that proved so damaging a decade ago.The policy reaction to the GFC was somewhat delayed and initially confused, especially in Europe, because policymakers and the public had not experienced a financial crisis or government defaults. But governments and central banks in Europe and the United States learned their lessons, and are now applying them on a vast scale in an effort to mitigate the pandemic’s economic impact.Therein lies a second lesson from military history: Armies that have actual combat experience tend to be much stronger. And it is lack of experience that largely explains the delayed public-health response to COVID-19 on both sides of the Atlantic.Neither Europe nor the US have experienced a public-health crisis of this magnitude since the 1918-19 Spanish Flu pandemic. By contrast, Asian countries that had to deal with the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic less than 20 years ago reacted much faster to the COVID-19 outbreak, implementing drastic containment measures that enabled them to flatten the contagion curve relatively quickly.The emerging narrative based on China’s experience – that dictatorships are better at fighting an epidemic – is thus wrong. What made the difference this time was that China and other Asian societies had experienced a similar problem to COVID-19 within living memory. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Was die Weltwirtschaft noch erwartet Corona-Krise – wir sind erst in Phase 2 Eine Meinungsmache

Posted by hkarner - 29. März 2020

von Daniel Stelter, Manager Magazin

Am Donnerstag zog die EZB im Kampf gegen eine drohende Rezession eine weitere milliardenschwere Finanzspritze auf. Die Reaktion der Finanzmärkte war eindeutig: Zu wenig, zu zaghaft, ungenügend. Auf den freien Fall folgte am Freitag zumindest in den USA ein erster Erholungsversuch, denn auch US-Notenbank Fed und die US-Regierung stemmen sich nun mit milliardenschweren Hilfsprogrammen gegen die Krise. Doch ist das Schlimmste damit bereits überstanden?

Anlass, um den Ereignissen der vergangenen Wochen auf den Grund zu gehen. Und das Ergebnis der Analyse fällt ernüchternd aus: Wir befinden uns erst in Phase 2 einer vierstufigen Krise. Auf die Corona-Epidemie und die daraus folgende aktuelle Finanzkrise folgt ein deflationärer Schock für die Realwirtschaft, und am Ende steht die Frage, ob unser Geld- und Wirtschaftssystem wirklich noch funktioniert.

Phase 1: die Epidemie, die keine Krise werden musste Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Corona stürzt Aktienmärkte in die schwärzeste Woche seit der Finanzkrise

Posted by hkarner - 4. März 2020

Dank an R.B.

  • Aktualisiert am

Ob in New York oder Frankfurt: Die Aktienkurse rauschen auf der ganzen Welt in die Tiefe. Die amerikanische Notenbank will tun, was nötig ist, um die Wirtschaft zu stützen.

Die Furcht vor den Folgen des neuartigen Coronavirus hat den internationalen Aktienmärkten die schwärzeste Woche seit der Finanzkrise 2008 eingebrockt. Allein seit Wochenauftakt sank der Wert der Unternehmen an den Börsen der Welt um fast sechs Billionen Dollar.

Eine Beruhigung ist vorerst nicht in Sicht. „Die Investoren versuchen, sich auf das Schlimmste einzustellen“, sagte John Lau, Aktienexperte des Finanzdienstleisters SEI Investments. „Das sind höchst unsichere Zeiten, keiner kennt die Antwort, und die Märkte sind in Panik.“ Bernhard Langer, der Milliarden Dollar für die Fondsgesellschaft Invesco anlegt, sagte der F.A.Z.: „Der Markt befindet sich sozusagen in einem Käuferstreik.“

Fed deutet Zinssenkung an

Der Dow Jones Industrial, der zeitweise deutlich unter 25.000 Punkte gefallen war, schloss mit einem Minus von 1,39 Prozent auf 25.409,36 Punkte. Dennoch ging für das wichtige Börsenbarometer mit einem Wochenverlust von 12,4 Prozent eine der schlimmsten Handelswochen seit Jahren zu Ende. Noch markanter waren die Einbußen zuletzt nur während der Finanzmarktkrise im Oktober 2008. Auf Vierwochensicht sieht es kaum besser aus: Mit minus 10 Prozent hat der Dow den verlustreichsten Monat seit genau elf Jahren hinter sich.

Der breiter gefasste S&P 500 verlor am Freitag 0,82 Prozent auf 2954,22 Punkte, nachdem es im Tagesverlauf auch für den marktbreiten Index zeitweise um mehr als 3 Prozent abwärts gegangen war. Der Nasdaq 100 schaffte am Tagesende sogar ein Plus von 0,30 Prozent auf 8461,83 Zähler.

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Coronavirus laut OECD „größtes Wirtschaftsrisiko seit der Finanzkrise“

Posted by hkarner - 4. März 2020

dank an H.G.
02.03.2020 um 14:57

Die Coronavirus-Epidemie kann nach Einschätzung der Industriestaaten-Organisation OECD die Weltwirtschaft aus der Spur bringen.

Industriekrise in China, Flaute in der Weltwirtschaft, Sorge um die deutsche Konjunktur: Das neuartige Coronavirus ist nach Einschätzung der OECD das „größte Wirtschaftsrisiko seit der Finanzkrise“. Im schlimmsten Fall könnte sich das weltweite Wachstum sogar nahezu halbieren, warnte die OECD. Dann drohe ein „Dominoeffekt“.

Besonders deutlich werden die Folgen des Ausbruchs an ihrem Ursprungsort China: Produktion, Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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„This Crisis Will Spill Over and Result in a Disaster“

Posted by hkarner - 29. Februar 2020

Date: 28‑02‑2020

Source: DER SPIEGEL Interview Conducted by Tim Bartz

Economist Nouriel Roubini correctly predicted the 2008 financial crisis. Now, he believes that stock markets will plunge by 30 to 40 percent because of the coronavirus. And that Trump will lose his re‑election bid.

Economist Roubini: „The markets are completely delusional.“ 

Nouriel Roubini is one of the most prominent and enigmatic economists in the world. He correctly predicted the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble in addition to the 2008 financial crisis along with the ramifications of austerity measures for debt‑laden Greece. Roubini is famous for his daring prognostications and now, he has another one: He believes that coronavirus will lead to a global economic disaster and that U.S. President Donald Trump will not be re‑elected as a result.

DER SPIEGEL: How severe is the coronavirus outbreak for China and for the global economy?

Roubini: This crisis is much more severe for China and the rest of the world than investors have expected for four reasons: First, it is not an epidemic limited to China, but a global pandemic. Second, it is far from being over. This has massive consequences, but politicians don’t realize it.

DER SPIEGEL: What do you mean?

Roubini: Just look at your continent. Europe is afraid of closing its borders, which is a huge mistake. In 2016, in response to the refugee crisis, Schengen was effectively suspended, but this is even worse. The Italian borders should be closed as soon as possible. The situation is much worse than 1 million refugees coming to Europe.

DER SPIEGEL: What are your other two reasons?

Roubini: Everyone believes it’s going to be a V‑shaped recession, but people don’t know what they are talking about. They prefer to believe in miracles. It’s simple math: If the Chinese economy were to shrink by 2 percent in the first quarter, it would require growth of 8 percent in the final three quarters to reach the 6 percent annual growth rate that everyone had expected before the virus broke out. If growth is only 6 percent from the second quarter onwards, which is a more realistic scenario, we would see the Chinese economy only growing by 2.5 to 4 percent for the entire year. This rate would essentially mean a recession for China and a shock to the world. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The White Swans of 2020

Posted by hkarner - 19. Februar 2020

NEW YORK – In my 2010 book, Crisis Economics, I defined financial crises not as the “black swan” events that Nassim Nicholas Taleb described in his eponymous bestseller, but as “white swans.” According to Taleb, black swans are events that emerge unpredictably, like a tornado, from a fat-tailed statistical distribution. But I argued that financial crises, at least, are more like hurricanes: they are the predictable result of built-up economic and financial vulnerabilities and policy mistakes. 

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Der nächste Crash als Chance

Posted by egloetzl - 24. Januar 2020

Tagungskonzept

Viele Expert*innen schätzen das Risiko für einen weiteren Zusammenbruch des Banken- und Finanzsystems als sehr hoch ein. Wenn sich dies bewahrheitet, sollten Gesellschaft und Politik diesmal besser vorbereitet sein und nicht wieder die Banken und Finanzmärkte auf Kosten der Gesellschaft retten müssen. Andernfalls drohen eine gravierende politische Legitimationskrise, ein weiterer Aufstieg demokratiefeindlicher Bewegungen und eine existentielle Gefährdung des europäischen Projekts.

Doch gegenwärtig ist das Thema einer möglichen Krise in der öffentlichen Debatte kaum vertreten. Auf politischer Ebene steht das Tagesgeschäft im Mittelpunkt und auch bei den meisten zivilgesellschaftlichen Organisationen ist die immense gesellschaftliche Bedeutung des Finanzsystems ein blinder Fleck.

Diesem Zustand wird die Tagung „Der nächste Crash als Chance – Szenarien und Reformpotentiale“ etwas Konstruktives entgegensetzen. 300-400 Expert*innen, Entscheidungsträger*innen und Akteur*innen aus Politik, Wirtschaft, Zivilgesellschaft und Wissenschaft werden die Gefahr einer nächsten Finanzkrise diskutieren und visionäre Ideen zu Finanzmarktreformen, Geld- und Fiskalpolitik und zur Zukunft des Geldes, des Euros und der Banken entwickeln und austauschen. Dabei stehen keineswegs pessimistische Katastrophenszenarien im Vordergrund, sondern die große Vielfalt an zukunftsweisenden politischen Handlungsoptionen. Im Idealfall kann so der nächste Crash verhindert oder als Chance genutzt werden, um den Umbau hin zu einem nachhaltigen, gerechten und stabilen Geld- und Finanzsystem vorzunehmen, mit dem die Gesellschaft insbesondere der drohenden Klimakatastrophe angemessen begegnen kann.

https://naechstercrash-tagung.de/

 

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