Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Fed’

The Fed Is Playing a Dangerous Game

Posted by hkarner - 4. März 2019

By John Mauldin, March 1, 2019

Infested with Crawdads
Not Applauding
Steadily More Dovish
#3 Mandate

In an ideal world, we wouldn’t have to read the Federal Reserve’s rabbit entrails to discern the economy. But Since the Fed exists in the real world, and its decisions matter, we have to pay attention.

Just so new and perhaps even old readers know my views on the Fed: I believe we need it to handle the practical matters of the banking system plus interact with other international central banks (we live in a complicated world) and, in the midst of crisis, act as a lender of last resort and liquidity provider. I agree with Walter Bagehot’s (pronounced badget) very important pronouncement (often called „Bagehot’s Dictum“) that “in times of financial crisis central banks should lend freely to solvent depository institutions, yet only against sound collateral and at interest rates high enough to dissuade those borrowers that are not genuinely in need.” That rule or dictum remains wise. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Ein wirtschaftlich durchwachsenes Jahr 2019

Posted by hkarner - 11. Februar 2019

 

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

NEW YORK – Auf das synchronisierte globale Wirtschaftswachstum von 2017 folgte das asynchrone Wachstum des Jahres 2018, in dem, von den USA abgesehen, in den meisten Ländern Konjunkturabschwünge einsetzten. Sorgen über die US-Inflation, den geldpolitischen Kurs der US Federal Reserve, anhaltende Handelskriege, Italiens Haushalts- und Schuldenprobleme, den Konjunkturabschwung in China und die Anfälligkeiten der Schwellenmärkte führten am Jahresende zu steilen Kursrückgängen an den weltweiten Aktienmärkten.

Die gute Nachricht zu Beginn des Jahres 2019 ist, dass das Risiko einer unmittelbaren globalen Rezession niedrig ist. Die schlechte Nachricht ist, dass wir auf ein Jahr des synchronisierten globalen Abschwungs zusteuern; das Wirtschaftswachstum wird in den meisten Regionen in Richtung seines Potentials fallen und dieses in einigen Fällen noch unterschreiten. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why Is the Fed Still Raising Interest Rates?

Posted by hkarner - 30. Dezember 2018

Martin Feldstein, Professor of Economics at Harvard University and President Emeritus of the National Bureau of Economic Research, chaired President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1982 to 1984. In 2006, he was appointed to President Bush’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, and, in 2009, was appointed to President Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board. Currently, he is on the board of directors of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Trilateral Commission, and the Group of 30, a non-profit, international body that seeks greater understanding of global economic issues.

Given that the US Federal Reserve has long said that its interest-rate policy is “data dependent,” why has it pressed ahead with monetary tightening in the face of worsening economic indicators? Three reasons stand out.

CAMBRIDGE – Earlier this month, the US Federal Reserve’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to increase the short-term interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, taking it from 2.25% to 2.5%. This was the fourth increase in 12 months, a sequence that had been projected a year ago, and the FOMC members also indicated that there would be two more quarter-point increases in 2019. The announcement soon met with widespread disapproval. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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As Market Rout Continues, Trump Stands Firm on Fed, Border Wall

Posted by hkarner - 27. Dezember 2018

Date: 26-12-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

President criticizes central bank’s rate increases, extends stalemate over border-wall funding; aides consider meeting with Powell

President Trump criticized Federal Reserve interest-rate increases and said on Tuesday a partial U.S. government shutdown wouldn’t end until Congress funded a wall along the border with Mexico, holding firm on his policy stances against the backdrop of a global economic slowdown and an extended world-wide stock plunge.

Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average fell 5% and into a bear market on Tuesday, following a 3% fall in U.S. stocks on Monday, the worst Christmas Eve trading day in history.

Mr. Trump, speaking in the Oval Office on Christmas Day, said the Federal Reserve is “raising interest rates too fast”—a practice he blames for volatile U.S. indexes. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump lässt kein gutes Haar an seinem Notenbankchef

Posted by hkarner - 29. November 2018

US-Präsident Donald Trump teilt schon seit Monaten gegen die Währungshüter aus. „Bisher bin ich mit meiner Wahl von Jay noch nicht mal ein kleines bisschen glücklich“, sagt er jetzt.

Präsident Donald Trump verstärkt den Druck auf die US-Notenbank Fed mit einer neuen Welle von Vorwürfen. In einem Zeitungsinterview bekräftigte er seine Kritik an dem von ihm selbst ins Amt gehievten Fed-Chef Jerome Powell. Trump hält diesem vor, mit Zinserhöhungen der amerikanischen Wirtschaft zu schaden. „Ich mache Deals, und ich erhalte keine Unterstützung der Fed“, sagte der Präsident der „Washington Post“. Die Notenbank mache einen Fehler. Das sage ihm sein Bauchgefühl. „Mein Bauch sagt mir manchmal mehr, als das Gehirn von jedem anderen mir sagen könnte.“

Angesichts der boomenden Wirtschaft erhöht die Fed derzeit schrittweise die Zinsen, um die Inflation in Schach zu halten. Damit will sie ihr Mandat erfüllen, Vollbeschäftigung und stabile Preise zu befördern. Sie untersteht nicht der Regierung. Powell hat angesichts der mehrfachen Attacken Trumps die Unabhängigkeit der Fed unterstrichen. Nach der jüngsten Zinsanhebung Ende September sagte er, bei geldpolitischen Entscheidungen spielten „politische Faktoren oder ähnliches“ keine Rolle. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Falling Share Prices and the Outlook for the US Economy

Posted by hkarner - 30. Oktober 2018

Martin Feldstein, Professor of Economics at Harvard University and President Emeritus of the National Bureau of Economic Research, chaired President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1982 to 1984. In 2006, he was appointed to President Bush’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, and, in 2009, was appointed to President Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board. Currently, he is on the board of directors of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Trilateral Commission, and the Group of 30, a non-profit, international body that seeks greater understanding of global economic issues.

Three forces will cause US long-term interest rates to continue to rise. But, in all likelihood, short-term rates will not increase fast enough to give the Federal Reserve sufficient room for monetary stimulus before the next economic downturn begins.

CAMBRIDGE – The Standard and Poor’s 500 index of share prices has fluctuated wildly during 2018 but has returned to nearly the same level that it was at the beginning of the year. The absence of a net fall for the year reflects the combination of a rise in corporate profits and a 12% decline in the price-earnings ratio. And the fall in the price-earnings ratio is an indication of the likely evolution of share prices in the next few years.

The price/earnings (P/E) ratio is now 40% higher than its historic average. Its rise reflects the very low interest rates that have prevailed since the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds interest rate to near zero in 2008. As long-term interest rates rise, however, share prices will be less attractive to investors and will decline. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A debate about central-bank independence is overdue

Posted by hkarner - 20. Oktober 2018

Date: 18-10-2018
Source: The Economist

In a low-inflation world, links between governments and monetary policymakers need rethinking

The federal reserve has heard worse. But when the president complains that it has gone “crazy” by tightening monetary policy, as Donald Trump did on October 10th, Americans fret that another norm is about to be overturned. An independent central bank is considered a pillar of a modern economy; presidents are supposed to mutter any criticisms they might have in private. But is that really for the best? Although Mr Trump’s complaints were not intended to start a high-minded debate, one is overdue.

Operational independence for central banks is relatively new. The principle grew out of work in the late 1970s and early 1980s by prominent economists working in the “rational expectations” school of economic thought, among them Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott, who were eventually awarded the Nobel prize. They considered the implications of people’s ability to look into the future and to anticipate the behaviour of self-interested politicians. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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These I: Nächster Crash könnte schlimmer werden als Lehman-Kollaps

Posted by hkarner - 10. September 2018

Andreas Schnauder, 9. September 2018, 08:00, derstandard.at

Das Finanzsystem ist seit Lehman von einer gewaltigen Geldschwemme aufgebläht worden. Ein Platzen der riesigen Schulden-, Aktien- und Immobilienblase könnte die Welt noch härter treffen als vor zehn Jahren

Donald Trump macht sich Sorgen. Wenn die Zinsen steigen, wird die ausufernde Staatsverschuldung der USA das Land noch stärker bedrohen, als das jetzt schon der Fall ist. Kein Wunder, dass der amerikanische Präsident ordentlich Druck auf den von ihm selbst nominierten Notenbankchef Jerome Powell ausübt. Er sei „nicht begeistert“ von den bisherigen – ohnehin äußerst zarten – Zinsschritten der Zentralbank, gab Trump von sich und beendete damit eine jahrzehntelange Tradition, die Unabhängigkeit der Fed nicht durch Querschüsse aus dem Weißen Haus zu torpedieren. Das Tauziehen um die wichtigste Zentralbank der Welt zeigt schon, wie angespannt die Lage ist. Zehn Jahre nach dem Kollaps der US-Investmentbank Lehman Brothers, der einen Finanz-Tsunami und eine weltweite Rezession auslöste, kracht es wieder ordentlich im Gebälk der globalen Wirtschaft. Jahrelang fluteten die Notenbanken der großen Industriestaaten die Märkte mit Billionen, um Banken und Wirtschaft auf die Beine zu helfen.

Irrfahrt in riskante Investments

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Central bankers grapple with the changing nature of competition

Posted by hkarner - 2. September 2018

Date: 01-09-2018
Source: The Economist: Free exchange

This year’s Jackson Hole meeting was a chance to study market concentration

RECENT visitors to Jackson Hole, a resort in the Teton Mountain range in Wyoming, were denied the usual scenic views by a shroud of smoke from recent forest fires. Disappointing, no doubt, for the tourists among them—but oddly fitting for the economic panjandrums attending the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual symposium on August 23rd-25th. Not only are economic policymakers used to making choices in a fog of uncertainty, but this year’s theme of market structures generated its own haze. Though the nature of competition in America’s economy is changing, it is unclear how worried they should be.

Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, highlighted slow wage growth in recent decades. America seems stuck in a “low-productivity mode”, he said. Others pointed to sluggish investment, despite cheap capital, and a fall in workers’ share of national income. Could these ills share some common causes, namely rising market concentration and crimped competition? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Fed Can’t Save Jobs From AI and Robots

Posted by hkarner - 12. Juni 2018

Date: 11-06-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Martin Feldstein

The central bank’s employment mandate can’t be squared with coming tech disruption.

The day is coming, experts tell us, when artificial intelligence and robotics will massively disrupt the labor market. Autonomous vehicles will put 3.5 million truck drivers at risk of losing their jobs. Checkout machines may replace 3.4 million retail cashiers. That is only the beginning of the long list of jobs that will be destroyed by technological change.

The shift will not happen all at once, and most of the people who lose their jobs will eventually find new employment. The benefits of automation will include lower production costs, which will increase real incomes and job-creating consumer demand. But the technology will also cause individual hardship and frequent periods of increased unemployment.

These large supply shocks cannot be offset by monetary policy. They therefore will present the Federal Reserve with a new challenge. In 1978 Congress gave the Fed a “dual mandate” of price stability and maximum employment. This distinguishes the Fed from the world’s other major central banks. The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, for example, are required to target only the rate of inflation (although they may informally pay attention to the level of employment). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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