Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Euro’

Euroexperte Wieser: „Italien ist Ballast für die Eurozone“

Posted by hkarner - 28. Februar 2019

Eric Frey, 27. Februar 2019, 14:46 derstandard.at

Der frühere Chef der Euro-Arbeitsgruppe sieht keinen Weg aus Italiens Budgetkrise, aber wenig Gefahr für die Eurozone

Sechs Jahre lang hat sich Thomas Wieser als Vorsitzender der Eurogruppe-Arbeitsgruppe mit den Problemen des Euro beschäftigt und Lösungen gesucht. Für das jetzige größte Sorgenkind der Eurozone, Italien, hat er allerdings keine. „Ich bin ratlos“, sagt er im STANDARD-Gespräch auf die Frage, wie die drittgrößte Volkswirtschaft der Währungsunion wieder zu einer vernünftigen Wirtschaftspolitik und einem Wachstumskurs finden kann.

„Dafür würde es eine Riesenkrise brauchen, ein sehr gut funktionierendes politisches System – oder ein Wunder.“ Trifft dieses nicht ein, dann könnte Italien ein Fall für einen Staatsbankrott mit einer Schuldenrestrukturierung, also einem ausverhandelten Schuldenschnitt, werden. Doch genau dafür fehlten derzeit die notwendigen Regeln in der EU, sagt Wieser. „Man müsste sich dringend ein Staatsinsolvenzrecht überlegen.“

Wieser nimmt am 5. März gemeinsam mit dem Ökonomen Christian Keuschnigg, Wirtschaftskammerpräsident Harald Mahrer und der ehemaligen Direktorin der Europäischen Zentralbank, Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell, an einer Podiumsdiskussion des Club 20 gemeinsam mit dem STANDARD über die Zukunft des Euro teil. Dort wird Italien ein zentrales Thema sein.

Höheres Defizit

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Incredible Shrinking Europe

Posted by hkarner - 12. Februar 2019

Date: 12-02-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Walter Russell Mead

The Continent’s grand unity project is failing, and its global influence is fading.

Last week offered fresh evidence that the most consequential historical shift of the last 100 years continues: the decline of Europe as a force in world affairs. As Deutsche Bank warned of a German recession, the European Commission cut the 2019 eurozone growth forecast from an already anemic 1.9% to 1.3%. Economic output in the eurozone was lower in 2017 than it was in 2009; over that same period, gross domestic product grew 139% in China, 96% in India, and 34% in the U.S., according to the World Bank.

As its economy lags behind, Europe is becoming more divided politically. Brexit negotiations have inflamed tempers on both sides of the English Channel; Central European countries like Hungary and Poland are alienated from the West; much of Southern Europe remains bitter about the aftermath of the euro crisis; and anti-EU political parties continue to gain support across the bloc. A recent report from the European Council on Foreign Relations projects that anti-EU parties from the right and left are on course to control enough seats in the next European Parliament that they will be able to disrupt the EU and weaken it further. This wasn’t supposed to happen. The EU was founded to stop Europe’s decline, not reflect it. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Mirage of a Global Euro

Posted by hkarner - 7. Februar 2019

Daniel Gros is Director of the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, and served as an economic adviser to the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the French prime minister and finance minister. He is the editor of Economie Internationale and International Finance.

When the euro was introduced a generation ago, European leaders envisaged a common currency that would come to rival the US dollar as a second global reserve currency. That hope has failed to materialize – an outcome that European leaders would be wise to welcome.

BRUSSELS – One of the great claims made for the euro was that it would rival the US dollar as a second global reserve currency. These hopes have failed to materialize. The euro’s importance in global reserves and financial markets today is about the same as it was two decades ago, when the euro replaced the Deutsche Mark and ten other national currencies.

But hope dies last, and in this spirit the European Commission recently published a Communication entitled “Towards a stronger international role of the euro” (sic). The European Commission, like most European policymakers, takes it as given that the eurozone would benefit if the euro played a more global role. But that is not necessarily true. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Drei Lektionen aus der quantitativen Lockerung in Europa

Posted by hkarner - 4. Februar 2019

Stefan Gerlach

Stefan Gerlach is Chief Economist at EFG Bank in Zurich and Former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland. He has also served as Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and as Secretary to the Committee on the Global Financial System at the BIS.

ZÜRICH – Da die Europäische Zentralbank die quantitative Lockerung (QE) kürzlich beendet hat, ist dies ein geeigneter Zeitpunkt, um über die Auswirkungen der Politik nachzudenken. Drei Schlussfolgerungen scheinen offensichtlich: Die Vermögenskäufe der EZB hatten erhebliche makroökonomische Vorteile; die politischen Kosten der QE waren viel höher als erwartet; und die ganze Episode war für die Bundesbank wirklich schlimm.

Durch die Senkung der Kosten von Bankkrediten durch die QE förderte die EZB die Kreditvergabe an kleine Unternehmen und Haushalte in der gesamten Eurozone. Dies gab dem Wirtschaftswachstum einen wichtigen Impuls, der zu einem deutlichen Rückgang der Arbeitslosigkeit und einem Aufwärtsdruck auf die Lohnkosten führte. Obwohl die Kerninflation gestiegen ist, bleibt die zugrunde liegende Inflation schwach, was bedeutet, dass die EZB eine expansive Geldpolitik beibehalten muss. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Threat of a Eurozone Recession

Posted by hkarner - 4. Februar 2019

Lucrezia Reichlin, a former director of research at the European Central Bank, is Professor of Economics at the London Business School.

The eurozone may fall into a new recession by the end of this year, with potentially nasty political consequences. In addition to countering the cyclical slowdown, pro-European forces must urgently address the continent’s long-term structural economic problems.

LONDON – National statistical offices and international organizations are busy revising down their growth forecasts for Europe this year and next. Although they are doing the same for the rest of the world as well, and for China in particular, a slowdown in Europe may have nasty political consequences, in addition to economic costs.

Faced with this deteriorating outlook, eurozone policymakers should ask themselves three questions. The first is whether the is temporary, or persistent enough to lead to a possible recession. The second is what kind of recession might occur, and what policymakers can do to counter it. And the third is what Europe must do to address its longer-term structural economic problems.

Regarding the first question, GDP growth forecasts that look more than one quarter ahead are notoriously unreliable. We must therefore get a good grip on the current situation and analyze revisions to growth forecasts over the past year to judge the persistence of bad news. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Euro has been an Economic Fiasco

Posted by hkarner - 25. Januar 2019

Date: 23-01-2019
Source: The Economist: Free exchange
Subject: The euro area is back on the brink of recession

After two decades of underperformance, that should not be surprising

IT BEGAN AS a joke: the Twitter hashtag #euroboom tacked on to news of any sign, no matter how faint, of a euro-area recovery. By 2017, when French, German and even Spanish GDP grew by more than 2%, it seemed to describe a real phenomenon. Alas, all too quickly #euroboom has turned to #eurogloom. GDP data scheduled for release later this month are likely to confirm that in the final three months of 2018 Italy’s economy contracted for a second consecutive quarter, satisfying one of the technical definitions of a recession. Germany appears to have escaped recession, but only just. The euro area, formed in January 1999, may pass its anniversary on the brink of another downturn.

The euro has been an economic fiasco. GDP growth in the euro area has lagged behind that in other advanced economies, and in the European Union as a whole, throughout its life—before the financial crisis, during the global recession and its euro-area encore, and even during the recent #euroboom. Perhaps the area would have done as badly without the single currency. But attempts to estimate euro-zone performance relative to a counterfactual world sans euro suggest not. The past decade has been especially brutal. A list of the world’s worst performers in terms of real GDP per person since 2008 contains places suffering geopolitical meltdowns—plus the euro-area periphery. Greece has been outgrown by Sudan and Ukraine. Cyprus and Italy have been beaten by Brazil and Iran; France and the Netherlands by Britain. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Euro Turns 20

Posted by hkarner - 8. Januar 2019

Daniel Gros is Director of the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, and served as an economic adviser to the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the French prime minister and finance minister. He is the editor of Economie Internationale and International Finance.

The euro’s first 20 years played out very differently than many expected, highlighting the importance of recognizing that the future is likely to be different from the past. Given this, only a commitment to flexibility and a willingness to rise to new challenges will ensure the common currency’s continued success.

BRUSSELS – Twenty years ago this month, the euro was born. For ordinary citizens, little changed until cash euros were introduced in 2002. But in January 1999, the “third stage” of Economic and Monetary Union officially started, with the exchange rates among the original 11 eurozone member states “irrevocably” fixed, and authority over their monetary policy transferred to the new European Central Bank. What has unfolded since then holds important lessons for the future.

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The euro enters its third decade in need of reform

Posted by hkarner - 5. Januar 2019

Date: 04-01-2019
Source: The Economist

The EU’s great project may not survive another crisis

The euro is a survivor. The new currency, brought into being on January 1st 1999, has defied early critics, who thought it doomed to failure. It has emerged from its turbulent teenage years intact, cheating a near-death experience, the debt crisis of 2009-12. It is now more popular than ever with the public. But fundamental tensions attended its birth. Although the euro has made it this far, they still hang over it. If Europe’s single currency is to survive a global slowdown or another crisis it will require a remodelling that politicians seem unwilling or unable to press through.

To its supporters the bold economic experiment was the culmination of half a century of European co-operation and a crucial step towards an “ever closer union” that would unite a continent once riven by conflict. “Nations with a common currency never went to war against each other,” said Helmut Kohl, Germany’s chancellor who, together with France’s president, François Mitterrand, championed monetary union in the 1990s to cement deeper political and economic integration. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Backstops

Posted by hkarner - 19. Dezember 2018

Jürgen Stark

Jürgen Stark is a former Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank and former Deputy Governor of the Deutsche Bundesbank.

FRANKFURT – Seit 2010 wurde eine Vielzahl von Maßnahmen ergriffen, um den Euroraum „krisenresistenter“ zu machen. Neben dem bail out-Mechanismus sind es u.a. verschärfte Haushaltsregeln und die Bankenunion. Neueste Elemente sind die Stärkung des Europäischen Stabilitäts-Mechanismus (ESM), der nun als Letztsicherung (backstop) für den Bankenabwicklungsfonds (Single Resolution Fund/SRF) vorgesehen ist,  konkretere Zugangsbedingungen zu vorbeugenden ESM-Kreditlinien (Contingent Credit Lines) grundsätzlich solider Euro-Staaten sowie eine wichtigere Rolle der Kollektivklauseln („Collective Action Clauses“) in den Kontrakten für Staatsanleihen. Endgültige Entscheidungen u.a. über ein Euro-Budget und die europäische Einlagensicherung stehen noch aus.

Wie sind die bisherigen Schritte und die zu erwartenden weiteren Entscheidungen zur Reform der Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion (WWU) zu bewerten? Will man eine Währungsunion der Solidität und Stabilität mit Eigenverantwortung und Haftung der Mitgliedstaaten für ihre Politik oder der Solidarität mit Risikoteilung und Finanztransfers? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Macron Is German Taxpayers’ Last Hope

Posted by hkarner - 16. Dezember 2018

Date: 15-12-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.

If French reforms fail, it’s hard to see how else the eurozone survives.

In reckoning with the 2016 British referendum that gave the world Brexit and then the U.S. election that gave the world Donald Trump, one truth hasn’t quite come into focus. So regularly were voters told that the winner couldn’t win, many likely thought they were casting a “safe” protest vote.

Brexit now appears to have been a gross miscalculation all the way around. Both the Tory and Labour parties were wrong-footed. There was no credible leadership faction ready with a plan for how the United Kingdom could make its exit from the European Union, restructure its economy, and survive and prosper.

But equally blundering have been the miscalculations in Brussels, Paris and Berlin. EU leaders leapt, and continue to leap, to the conclusion that torturing Britain on the way out is the key to making a troubled European Union sustainable, supposedly because it deters other from exiting. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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