Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Endgame’

Blackrock CIO: The Endgame Is Coming And Central Banks Will Debase Everything To Spark Inflation

Posted by hkarner - 8. Oktober 2019

Profile picture for user Tyler Durden

Blackrock’s Chief Investment Officer, Rick Rieder, best known perhaps for recently suggesting that the ECB should monetize stocks, writes in the Blackrock blog today and highlights the economic policy state-of-play today, and where it may lead to should economic growth falter, productivity not materialize, and populism continue to thrive.

* * *

The major global central banks continue to draw bigger guns in their battle against deflation, yet in some places, it appears to be of no avail. The fact is that the share of sovereign yields that are in negative territory keeps increasing and the average level of these interest rates becomes ever more negative. Further, quantitative easing (QE) purchases of sovereign debt have transitioned to purchases of corporate debt, and in some places equities; with inflation still elusive and improved growth prospects in question. That all leads one to wonder where (and how) these policies end? What is today’s monetary policy endgame?

Turn to economic history for perspective Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Blackrock CIO: The Endgame Is Coming And Central Banks Will Debase Everything To Spark Inflation

Posted by hkarner - 10. September 2019

Date: 06-09-2019
Source: https://www.zerohedge.com

Blackrock’s Chief Investment Officer, Rick Rieder, best known perhaps for recently suggesting that the ECB should monetize stocks, writes in the Blackrock blog today and highlights the economic policy state-of-play today, and where it may lead to should economic growth falter, productivity not materialize, and populism continue to thrive.

* * *

The major global central banks continue to draw bigger guns in their battle against deflation, yet in some places, it appears to be of no avail. The fact is that the share of sovereign yields that are in negative territory keeps increasing and the average level of these interest rates becomes ever more negative. Further, quantitative easing (QE) purchases of sovereign debt have transitioned to purchases of corporate debt, and in some places equities; with inflation still elusive and improved growth prospects in question. That all leads one to wonder where (and how) these policies end? What is today’s monetary policy endgame?

Turn to economic history for perspective Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Rise of Anti-Establishment Italy

Posted by hkarner - 10. Dezember 2016

By on December 8, 2016  RGE EconoMonitorSteinbock

After the UK Brexit and the Trump triumph in the US, the rise of anti-establishment Italy is hardly a surprise. It is the effect of half a decade of failed austerity doctrines in Europe and decades of failed political consolidation in Italy – ever since the notorious Tangentopoli scandals.

While Italy’s constitutional referendum heralds a political earthquake that will eventually affect both France and Germany, the immediate result is more uncertainty in economy, political polarization and market volatility.

End of an era in Italy – and Europe

Only hours after Italians had casted their ballot in the referendum on constitutional reforms, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi announced his resignation after heavy defeat.

Renzi’s ‘Yes’ camp included most of his Democratic Party (DP) and centrist allies, and the tacit support of moderate voters, including some from Silvio Berlusconi’s Forward Italy (FI). In turn, the opposition lineup featured Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement (M5S), the regional Northern League (NL) led by Matteo Salvini in alliance with the far-right Brothers of italy’s (Fdl) and Berlusconi’s Forward Italy (FI), a significant minority of PD allies, a number of small leftist groups,

According to projections, almost 60% of voters rejected constitutional changes. “My government ends here,” said Renzi from Palazzo Chigi. Moments later, he acknowledged that his pledge to resign if defeated at the polls had been a mistake. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Down and Out in Athens and Brussels

Posted by hkarner - 12. Juli 2015

Jeffrey Sachs, 11/7, Project Syndicatesachs

NEW YORK – The Greek catastrophe commands the world’s attention for two reasons. First, we are deeply distressed to watch an economy collapse before our eyes, with bread lines and bank queues not seen since the Great Depression. Second, we are appalled by the failure of countless leaders and institutions – national politicians, the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Central Bank – to avert a slow-motion train wreck that has played out over many years.

If this mismanagement continues, not only Greece but also European unity will be fatally undermined. To save both Greece and Europe, the new bailout package must include two big things not yet agreed.

First, Greece’s banks must be reopened without delay. The ECB’s decision last week to withhold credit to the country’s banking system, and thereby to shutter the banks, was both inept and catastrophic. That decision, forced by the ECB’s highly politicized Executive Board, will be studied – and scorned – by historians for years to come. By closing the Greek banks, the ECB effectively shut down the entire economy (no economy above subsistence level, after all, can survive without a payments system). The ECB must reverse its decision immediately, because otherwise the banks themselves would very soon become unsalvageable.

Second, deep debt relief must be part of the deal. The refusal of the rest of Europe, and especially Germany, to acknowledge Greece’s massive debt overhang has been the big lie of this crisis. Everyone has known the truth – that Greece can never service its current debt obligations in full – but nobody involved in the negotiations would say it. Greek officials have repeatedly tried to discuss the need to restructure the debt by slashing interest rates, extending maturities, and perhaps cutting the face value of the debt as well. Yet every attempt by Greece even to raise the issue was brutally rebuffed by its counterparties. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Endgame: Power Struggle in Brussels and Berlin over Fate of Greece

Posted by hkarner - 14. März 2015

Date: 14-03-2015
Source: DER SPIEGEL

European Commission President Juncker wants to keep Greece in the euro zone, no matter what the price. Member states, though, are beginning to lose their patience. Who will ultimately have the final say?

Jean-Claude Juncker understands the importance of symbols in politics. When he became president of the European Commission last fall, he surprised the political powers that be in Brussels with a mini-coup. One of the privileges reserved for the new head of the European Union executive is that of promoting a close confidant to be his spokesman. After all, the position of spokesman is crucial for ensuring that the Commission president is seen in a positive light.

But Juncker tapped a man named Margaritis Schinas, a 52-year-old lawyer from Thessaloniki who had until that moment been just another in the unremarkable army of bureaucrats that walk the Commission halls in Brussels. Even today, Schinas remains astonished at his huge promotion. What made him, a rather reserved bureaucrat, qualified to explain the daily work of the Commission to journalists from around Europe and the world? But for Juncker, the gesture was the important thing. He wanted to show that oft-reviled Greece was a crucial part of the European Union. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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New Kind of Stress Tests Big-Bank Outlook

Posted by hkarner - 31. Dezember 2013

Date: 30-12-2013
Source: The Wall Street Journal

What is the endgame?

That question is being raised more and more by bankers trying to assess the flood of new regulation continuing to wash over their firms. They will keep asking it in 2014 as even more rules are finalized and new ones crop up.

While many bankers are resigned to the fact their business will be very different due to the financial crisis, they are unsettled by the lack of an overarching framework for the multitude of regulatory initiatives. Having brought much of this on themselves, it is tough to feel sympathetic. Yet they do have a point.

US Banking AssetsRegulators and politicians have spoken about the need to make the financial system safer and end the threat posed by too-big-to-fail banks. What they haven’t done is clearly articulate what they actually want the financial system, and big banks, to look like.

Most have rejected the idea of breaking up the biggest banks or of placing size limits on them. Absent such steps, it isn’t clear how regulators will end the too-big-to-fail issue, other than saying that it has been dealt with, a notion many rightly dispute. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The clearest article on the European crisis – by far

Posted by hkarner - 23. Mai 2013

This is a 100% confirmation of our „reset scenario“ (hfk) 

Rogoff CCDate: 23-05-2013
Source: Project Syndicate
Subject: Europe’s Lost Keynesians

CAMBRIDGE – There is no magic Keynesian bullet for the eurozone’s woes. But the spectacularly muddle-headed argument nowadays that too much austerity is killing Europe is not surprising. Commentators are consumed by politics, flailing away at any available target, while the “anti-austerity” masses apparently believe that there are easy cyclical solutions to tough structural problems.

The eurozone’s difficulties, I have long argued, stem from European financial and monetary integration having gotten too far ahead of actual political, fiscal, and banking union. This is not a problem with which Keynes was familiar, much less one that he sought to address.

Above all, any realistic strategy for dealing with the eurozone crisis must involve massive write-downs (forgiveness) of peripheral countries’ debt. These countries’ massive combined bank and government debt – the distinction everywhere in Europe has become blurred – makes rapid sustained growth a dream. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Das Endspielszenario des Föhrenbergkreises: Reset !

Posted by hkarner - 10. April 2013

Wir haben nun genug von der Darstellung von Weltuntergangsszenarien. Die sind nun ziemlich klar. Siehe untenstehende Darstellung. Ab nun wenden wir unsere Energie dem Szenario danach, also nach dem „Reset“, zu.Endgame 1

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Die neuesten Meeting Minutes de Arbeitskreises

Posted by hkarner - 12. Februar 2013

neu vom 12. Februar: Seiten 147-156.

Föhrenberg-Kreis Financial Economy III 13-02-12

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China Economic Paradigm Nearing End Game

Posted by hkarner - 24. Januar 2013

Yves Smith

Author: Yves Smith · January 23rd, 2013 ·RGE EconoMonitor

Skeptics of China’s economic model have looked like hopeless gloomsters for years. Even though they are correct when they point out negatives, such as the fact that no large economy has ever had 50% of GDP coming from investments and exports for a sustained basis or has managed the transition from being export driven to consumption driven gracefully (the US’s and Japan’s deflations are prime examples) seemed irrelevant as China was able to maintain attractive growth rates in the wake of the financial crisis by providing massive stimulus (aka more investment). Even worrying signs, like the fact that it takes more and more debt to produce incremental growth (the ratio was worse for China in 2009 at 6:1 than the US on the eve of the crisis, at 4 or 5 to 1, and it’s deteriorated since then) and oft reported on spectacle of cities full of high end housing that sit vacant, haven’t dented the widespread faith in the ability of Chinese leaders to navigate, at worst, a soft landing if the world economy ratchets down into a lower level of growth thanks to austerity in Europe and the US.

GMO, in a compelling analysis (hat tip MacroBusiness), not only confirms the skeptics’ case but provides reasons why the Chinese growth model faces an end game. While it may not be nigh, it seems to be closer than most people think. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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