Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Posts Tagged ‘Emerging Markets’

The Biggest Emerging Market Debt Problem Is in America

Posted by hkarner - 23. Dezember 2018

Carmen M. Reinhart is Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.

A decade after the subprime bubble burst, a new one seems to be taking its place in the market for corporate collateralized loan obligations. A world economy geared toward increasing the supply of financial assets has hooked market participants and policymakers alike into a global game of Whac-A-Mole.

CAMBRIDGE – A recurrent topic in the financial press for much of 2018 has been the rising risks in the emerging market (EM) asset class. Emerging economies are, of course, a very diverse group. But the yields on their sovereign bonds have climbed markedly, as capital inflows to these markets have dwindled amid a general perception of deteriorating conditions.

Historically, there has been a tight positive relationship between high-yield US corporate debt instruments and high-yield EM sovereigns. In effect, high-yield US corporate debt is the emerging market that exists within the US economy (let’s call it USEM debt). In the course of this year, however, their paths have diverged (see Figure 1). Notably, US corporate yields have failed to rise in tandem with their EM counterparts. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Can Turkey Rewrite the Crisis-Management Rules?

Posted by hkarner - 17. August 2018

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he served as CEO and co-Chief Investment Officer, was Chairman of US President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council. He previously served as CEO of the Harvard Management Company and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund. He was named one of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. He is the author, most recently, of The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse.

Rather than sticking with the approach taken by numerous other countries – including Argentina earlier this year – by raising interest rates and seeking some form of IMF support, Turkey has shunned both in a very public manner. Unless it changes course, the government risks much wider damage – and not just in Turkey.

LAGUNA BEACH – Whether by accident or design, Turkey is trying to rewrite the chapter on crisis management in the emerging-market playbook. Rather than opting for interest-rate hikes and an external funding anchor to support domestic policy adjustments, the government has adopted a mix of less direct and more partial measures – and this at a time when Turkey is in the midst of an escalating tariff tit-for-tat with the United States, as well as operating in a more fluid global economy. How all this plays out is important not only for Turkey, but also for other emerging economies that already have had to cope with waves of financial contagion.

The initial phases of Turkey’s crisis were a replay of past emerging-market currency crises. A mix of domestic and external events – an over-stretched credit-led growth strategy; concerns about the central bank’s policy autonomy and effectiveness; and a less hospitable global liquidity environment, owing in part to rising US interest rates – destabilized the foreign-exchange market. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Out of the traps: Emerging markets are up and running

Posted by hkarner - 7. Oktober 2017

Date: 05-10-2017
Source: The Economist

After a rocky few years, emerging markets have become more mature and resilient, says Simon Cox. But along with the drama, some of their dynamism has gone

IN 1875 THE Ottoman Empire defaulted on half its foreign debt, a victim of the “first major debt crisis of the developing world”, according to one account of the mess. Its creditors, led by the Imperial Ottoman Bank, forced the empire’s grand vizier to accept a humiliating solution. Rather than wait to be repaid out of tax revenues, they won the right to collect half a dozen taxes themselves, including stamp duty and duties on alcohol. After 15 years of tax farming, the Imperial Ottoman Bank was comfortable enough to build impressive new headquarters in Istanbul, neo-orientalist in style on one side and neoclassical on the other.

Since long before the term was invented, emerging markets have provided a rich source of both peril and profit. That financial crisis in 1875 was followed by many others, including a hatful in Turkey. And like the Imperial Ottoman Bank, investors with strong stomachs have often profited the most from emerging markets at their worst. Hedge funds that bought impaired Argentine debt for roughly 20 cents on the dollar after its default in 2001 extracted a handsome settlement from its new government last year, worth perhaps ten times what they paid, according to some estimates. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Saving Emerging Markets From Trump

Posted by hkarner - 7. Juli 2017

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Drivers of Declining Labor Share of Income

Posted by hkarner - 11. April 2017

Posted on by iMFdirect

By Mai Chi Dao, Mitali Das, Zsoka Koczan, and Weicheng Lian

After being largely stable in many countries for decades, the share of national income paid to workers has been falling since the 1980s. Chapter 3 of the April 2017 World Economic Outlook finds that this trend is driven by rapid progress in technology and global integration.


Labor’s share of income declines when wages grow more slowly than productivity, or the amount of output per hour of work. The result is that a growing fraction of productivity gains has been going to capital. And since capital tends to be concentrated in the upper ends of the income distribution, falling labor income shares are likely to raise income inequality.IMF.WEOChap3.Apr2017_chart2.jpg

Trending down

In advanced economies, labor income shares began trending down in the 1980s. They reached their lowest level of the past half century just prior to the global financial crisis of 2008, and have not recovered materially since. Labor income shares now are almost 4 percentage points lower than they were in 1970.

Despite more limited data, labor shares have also declined in emerging market and developing economies since the early 1990s. This is especially the case for the larger economies in this group. In China, for example, despite impressive gains in poverty reduction over the past two decades, labor shares still fell by almost 3 percentage points.

Indeed, as growth remains subpar in many countries, an increasing recognition that the gains from growth have not been broadly shared has strengthened a backlash against economic integration and bolstered support in favor of inward-looking policies. This is especially the case in several advanced economies.

Our study takes an in-depth look at the symptoms and drivers of this downward trend in labor share of income.

Technology: a key driver in advanced economies Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why Emerging Markets Are Looking Better Than the USA

Posted by hkarner - 2. April 2017

Date: 01-04-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By JASON ZWEIG

Investing in emerging markets isn’t a bad idea, but rushing to do so is

Investors should ponder why that quintessential wise man, Benjamin Franklin, owned an asbestos purse. Perhaps it was to keep his money from burning a hole in his pocket. If we all had fireproof purses, maybe we wouldn’t be so eager to put hot money to work.

So far in 2017, exchange-traded funds investing in stocks from such developing nations as Brazil, China, India, Mexico and Russia have taken in $10.5 billion in new money, estimates TrimTabs Investment Research of Sausalito, Calif. With $127.8 billion in total assets, one-twelfth of all the money in these funds has come in over the past 90 days.

Much of that, presumably, is in hot pursuit of high recent returns. Emerging markets are up 12.4% this year — double the return of the S&P 500 index of U.S. stocks, counting dividends. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Addicted to Dollars

Posted by hkarner - 3. März 2017

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The Year Ahead: Where to Invest in 2017

Posted by hkarner - 16. Januar 2017

By on January 3, 2017  RGE EconoMonitor

The Year Ahead: Where to Invest in 2017

 Key takeaway – Across the globe, populism and protectionism are on the rise and macro fundamentals remain weak. In this challenging context, growth will remain subdued in 2017, hampered by sluggish investment and productivity, ever-accumulating savings and modest inflation. With the exception of the Unites States (US), developed markets (DMs) will stagnate, burdened by debt and structural rigidities. In the US, if Trump’s policies veer toward pragmatism, the economy will grow above trend, lifting financial markets, especially in the first part of the year. Emerging markets (EMs) will face low growth and risks of political volatility. At the global level, geopolitical tensions, financial instability and competitive devaluations remain key risks. Fiscal and monetary policies are unlikely to strengthen demand and investment; fiscal policy might turn expansionary only in the US. Monetary policies, unable to spur growth, will steadily diverge – with a mild tightening cycle in the US and easing in the Eurozone (EZ) and Japan. While traditional banks remain under pressure, asymmetric economic performance and diverging monetary policies will increase the risk of market dislocations. Unusual times call for unusual portfolios: investors should lower their return expectations, and increase exposure to alternatives. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Woman Who Revived Russia’s Markets

Posted by hkarner - 25. August 2016

Date: 24-08-2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Many investors credit central-bank chief Elvira Nabiullina for Russia’s resurgence

Nabullina CCElvira Nabiullina, chairwoman of the Russian Central Bank, has presided over Russia’s economic rebound.

Russian markets are red hot again.

Two years after plunging oil prices and Western economic sanctions fueled an investor exodus, the Micex stock index on Tuesday hit an all-time high. It is up 25% this year in dollar terms, making Russia the sixth-best performer among 23 emerging countries tracked by MSCI Inc.

The ruble has gained 13% against the dollar this year, ranking third among all emerging currencies. Russia’s local-currency bonds rank third this year in performance out of 15 countries tracked by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.

Many investors credit central-bank chief Elvira Nabiullina for Russia’s resurgence. They cite her surprise decision to end the ruble’s peg to the dollar in November 2014 and then sharply raise interest rates to combat capital flight and knock down inflation.

The moves were painful for Russia’s economy, which went into a sharp recession as the value of the ruble slumped, reducing consumer and business purchasing power. But over time they have helped to restore some international-investor faith in a country still shadowed by its 1998 default. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Weltgrößte Reederei bereitet sich auf Ölpreis-Crash vor

Posted by hkarner - 13. Mai 2016

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten  | 

Die dänische Reederei Maersk bereitet sich auf einen neuen Ölpreis-Crash vor. Sie rechnet mit einer weiteren Verschlechterung ihrer Auftragslage. Im vergangenen Jahr erwirtschaftete Maersk einen Nettoverlust von 2,5 Milliarden Dollar.

Maersk Container cc


Die weltgrößte Schiffs-Reederei Maersk berichtete vor drei Monaten, dass die Nachfrage nach dem Transport von Gütern wesentlich geringer gewesen ist als erwartet – insbesondere in den Schwellenländern, berichtet oilprice.org. Eine Erholung ist nicht in Sicht. Stattdessen geht Maersk-Chef Nils Andersen in Erwartung eines neuen Ölpreis-Crashs von einer weiteren Verschlechterung der Auftragslage aus.

„Es ist schlimmer als im Jahr 2008. Der Ölpreis ist genauso niedrig wie in den Jahren 2008 bis 2009. Und es sieht nicht danach aus, dass er sich erholen wird. Die Frachtraten sind niedriger. Die äußeren Bedingungen sind viel schlimmer als zuvor, aber wir sind besser vorbereitet“, zitiert die Financial Times Andersen. Die Aussichten für die Reederei sind schlecht, der Welthandel hat inzwischen merklich an Schwung verloren. Der internationale Containerhandel befindet sich ohnehin schon seit längerem in einer Krise.

Im vierten Quartal des vergangenen Jahres erwirtschaftete Maersk einen Nettoverlust von 2,5 Milliarden Dollar. Hintergrund seien Abschreibungen im Ölgeschäft in ungefähr derselben Höhe. Im Gesamtjahr 2015 ließen der Ölpreisverfall und die Abkühlung des Welthandels den Nettogewinn um etwa 80 Prozent auf 925 Millionen Dollar einbrechen.

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