Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Economist’

Britain’s new prime minister: May time

Posted by hkarner - 16. Juli 2016

Date: 14-07-2016
Source: The Economist

May cc 1A no-nonsense conservative has taken Britain’s helm. She should make the case for a minimalist Brexit

THEY campaigned to Leave, and they were as good as their word. Three weeks on from their referendum triumph, the politicians who led the charge for Britain to quit the European Union have fallen by the wayside in the race to replace David Cameron as prime minister. This week the last of the prominent Leavers, Andrea Leadsom, withdrew her candidacy after a few days’ media scrutiny revealed her to be fantastically ill-prepared. The job of steering Britain towards the EU’s exit doors has thus fallen to the only candidate left in the race: Theresa May, who campaigned to Remain.

Mrs May’s path to power was easier than that of most prime ministers, but her time in office will be the hardest stint in decades. Extricating Britain from the EU will be the diciest diplomatic undertaking in half a century. The wrangling at home will be no easier: whatever divorce settlement Britain ends up with is likely to be deeply unsatisfactory even to those who voted to Leave. Popular anger will not be soothed by the recession into which the country is probably heading. It will take a gifted politician to lead Britain through this turbulent period.

Is Mrs May up to it? The gormlessness of her rivals flatters her. But she has real qualities: a Merkelian calm, well suited to counter the chaos of the moment, and a track record of competence that increases the likelihood of an orderly withdrawal from the EU. Her first speech as prime minister—in which she promised to fight the burning injustice” faced by the poor—suggests she has correctly read the mood of those who voted against the establishment and for Brexit, and is preparing to seize the centre ground vacated by the Labour opposition. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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EZB gibt Entwarnung: Es gibt keine Banken-Krise in Italien

Posted by hkarner - 15. Juli 2016

Es gibt sie also doch, die Bankenkrise … Sonst bräuchte die EZB ja nicht dementieren. Das nenne ich eine glaubwürdige Aufsicht! (hfk)

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten  | 

Die Bankenaufsicht der EZB sieht keine italienische Banken-Krise. Lediglich einige Institute hätten Probleme, sagte EZB-Mann Ignazio Angeloni. Diese Aussage dürfte die Beobachter beruhigen – schließlich ist er wie EZB-Chef Mario Draghi Italiener und kennt daher alle Details, wie es um die Banken Italiens wirklich steht.

Mario Draghi bei einer Pressekonferenz der EZB in Frankfurt. (Screenshot ECB)

Entwicklung der faulen Kredite im italienischen Bankensystem.

Entwicklung der faulen Kredite im italienischen Bankensystem.

Die EZB sieht keine Banken-Krise in Italien. Es gebe kein spezifisches oder landesweites Problem mit Italien, betroffen seien einige Institute, sagte EZB-Bankenwächter Ignazio Angeloni der italienischen Wirtschaftszeitung „Il Sole 24 Ore“. „Das Problem der notleidenden Kredite kann bewältigt werden, sollte aber nicht unterschätzt werden,“ sagte Angeloni.

Angeloni zufolge reicht der unlängst eingerichtete Bankenrettungsfonds Atlante nicht aus, um in allen Fällen einzugreifen, bei denen Geld zum Aufkauf notleidender Darlehen oder zur Kapitalstützung der Institute benötigt wird. Den Fonds zu verstärken, vor allem durch Gelder von Privatinvestoren außerhalb des italienischen Bankensektors, sei deshalb wünschenswert. „Ich denke auch, dass eine Präsenz internationaler Investoren ein gutes Signal wäre,“ sagte Angeloni.

Italiens Finanzminister Pier Carlo Padoan (66) wehrt sich gegen den Vorwurf, die aktuelle Banken-Krise in seinem Land sei hausgemacht. „Der Auslöser der Krise der letzten Wochen liegt doch nicht in Italien“, sagte Padoan der „Bild“-Zeitung. Nicht die Instabilität einiger italienischer Geldinstitute sei die Ursache. Die neue Banken-Krise sei „das Ergebnis des britischen Referendums“. Die aktuellen Schwierigkeiten einiger unserer Banken“ stünden „in direktem Zusammenhang mit der Wirtschaftskrise.“ Padoan sprach aktuell von „einer Welle der Unsicherheit“, die „gravierende Auswirkungen auf die weltweiten Finanzmärkte“ habe. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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It is surprisingly hard to draw clear conclusions about voters’ intentions from electoral results

Posted by hkarner - 11. Juli 2016

Date: 10-07-2016
Source: The Economist: Free exchange
Subject: X marks the knot

THE voters have spoken, runs an old gag, but what on earth did they mean? In the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, bereft Remain campaigners have sought to explain away the result. Some argue that Britons would never have voted for Brexit if they had known what it involves. Others claim voters were not really expressing an opinion about the EU, but simply protesting about the state of the country. The outcome, the revanchists insist, was not an accurate reflection of voters’ desires, but an electoral malfunction.

To most, that sounds like sour grapes. But there is a body of academic work that supports the idea that elections often misfire. For one thing, voters can be capricious. In a recent book, “Democracy for Realists”, Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels recount how people in New Jersey were significantly less likely to vote to re-elect President Woodrow Wilson in 1916 if they lived near the sites of recent shark attacks. By the same token, voters seem to punish politicians for floods and droughts, but instead of seeking candidates who plan to spend more time or money preparing for such calamities, they simply unseat the incumbent. They are also myopic, judging politicians’ economic management on the basis of only the very recent past. Their opinions can fluctuate wildly, depending on how questions are asked. Before the Gulf war of 1991, almost two-thirds of Americans said they were willing to “use military force”, but less than 30% wanted to “go to war”. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Bankers hope an obscure law will preserve the City’s access to the EU

Posted by hkarner - 11. Juli 2016

Date: 10-07-2016
Source: The Economist
Subject: MiFID: Financial tonic

THERE was a time when a mention of MiFID 2, a complex European regulation, elicited groans from financial types in the City of London. Since Britain voted to leave the European Union, however, it has become a source of hope. That is because a clause in the second iteration of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive, to give it its full name, seems to provide financial firms outside the EU, as those in the City may soon be, with a means to provide services to customers inside it.

The provision in question allows financial firms from outside the EU to offer trading, brokerage and underwriting services to European institutional (but not retail) clients, as long as the regulatory regime where they are based is deemed “equivalent” to that of the EU. In theory, there should be no doubt about the equivalence of Britain’s laws, points out Jonathan Herbst of Norton Rose Fulbright, a law firm, as long as Britain continues to implement European rules until its exit. This suggests that for banks and brokerages based in London it should be business as usual. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Looking to Mutti

Posted by hkarner - 9. Juli 2016

Date: 07-07-2016
Source: The Economist: Charlemagne

Merkel BWWith Britain stumbling towards the exit, it falls to Angela Merkel to give the European Union new shape

AS IN crises past, Europe this week turned its gaze towards Angela Merkel, looking for clues to how the German chancellor plans to keep the continent from cracking up. Amid all the uncertainty that has followed the Brexit referendum, one thing seems clear: with Britain leaving the European Union, or dithering over how to do so, Germany’s already awkward weight in the remaining club of 27 will grow even heavier. Henry Kissinger’s (probably apocryphal) question about whom to call when you want to call Europe no longer needs asking: obviously, you dial Berlin. That seems reassuring to some, unbearable to many. France, Italy and Spain henceforth “take their lead directly from Chancellor Angela Merkel”, sneers Marine Le Pen, France’s Eurosceptic-in-chief, “without running through Brussels.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Hitting turbulence: budget airlines

Posted by hkarner - 7. Juli 2016

Date: 06-07-2016
Source: The Economist

Budget AirlinesInvestors will closely watch the June passenger numbers released today by easyJet, Europe’s second-largest low-cost carrier. Budget airlines have much to lose from Brexit: easyJet and Ryanair, its larger Irish rival, lost nearly a fifth of their value as the referendum result became clear.

Low-cost airlines have benefited in recent years from the EU’s single aviation market, rising demand and lower jet-fuel prices. But as growth slows in European economies appetite for air travel is expected to fall—more so in Britain.

Ryanair is diverting $1 billion of new planes to other European Union countries, and Wizz, a Hungarian rival, says it will stop investing in Britain from this winter.

Ryanair predicts fares will fall by 12% in Europe later this year, in order to keep aircraft full, but it may yet benefit from the turbulence: with the lowest cost base in the industry, it has most to gain from fare wars.

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From Brexit to Brangst

Posted by hkarner - 5. Juli 2016

Date: 04-07-2016
Source: The Economist

German business leaders fear Brexit could lead to a less competitive Europe

Firms fret that an EU without Britain will be protectionist and over-regulating

“I THOUGHT you were a pragmatic people, like us, not an emotional people like the Southerners,” says one bewildered Bavarian boss in his Munich office. He is not alone: German business leaders still cannot believe what happened on June 23rd. They are only gradually coming to terms with the idea that Britain, one of Germany’s most important trading partners and a crucial liberal voice in the European Union, may actually be leaving the party.

It is a possibility few bosses in Europe’s largest and strongest economy had prepared for. And the list of worries is growing rapidly, despite reassurance from Angela Merkel, Germany’s Chancellor, in a speech to parliament last week that the interests of German citizens and companies would be her number one focus during Brexit negotiations. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Wie die Uni-Ökonomen versagen – die Theorie der Prostitution als Mahnmal

Posted by hkarner - 3. Juli 2016

Ein Klassiker! (hfk)

Mathias Binswanger, 19. Jan. 2012, ÖkonomenstimmeBinswanger cc

Vor kurzem ist hier ein Beitrag von Rüdiger Bachmann unter dem Titel „Haben die Uni-Ökonomen versagt?“ erschienen. In dem Artikel sollte aufgezeigt werden, welch tolle Arbeit Ökonomen heute leisten und wie ungerechtfertigt Angriffe auf die Mainstreamökonomie seien. Dieses sich selbst auf die Schulter klopfen war offenbar notwendig, da sich die ökonomische Wissenschaft in letzter Zeit vor allem in Zusammenhang mit der letzten Finanzkrise Angriffen ausgesetzt sah, sie würde die heutige Realität der Finanzmärkte in ihren Modellen ignorieren und von realitätsfremden Annahmen ausgehen.

Gemäss Rüdiger Bachmann sind die Kritiker einfach Ignoranten, die nichts von Ökonomie verstehen, da sie nicht über das nötige Rüstzeug verfügen, um die Krisenphänomene exakt zu beschreiben. Ausgebildeten Ökonomen, die es wagen, Kritik an ihrer Wissenschaft vorzubringen wagen, werden hingegen als unterdrückte Privatdozenten diffamiert. Und wer die Annahme des Homo Oeconomicus kritisiert (Psychologische Kritik an der Ökonomie) behauptet damit laut Bachmann automatisch „Menschen sind alle dumm und irrational“. Entspricht ein solcher Umgang mit Kritikern einem dynamischen, offenen und flexiblen Wissenssystem, als welches Bachmann die moderne VWL empfindet?

Besonders eigenartig wird die Argumentation jedoch, wenn Bachmann seinem Kollegen Thomas Straubhaar vorwirft, dieser hätte sich darüber verwundert, dass „mikroökonomisches Gewinnstreben zum makroökonomischen Untergang führen könne“. Dass dies möglich sei, wisse die moderne VWL nämlich schon längst, denn schliesslich gäbe es in bestimmten Modellen Nashgleichgewichte oder multiple Gleichgewichte. Dieses Argument ist etwa so stichhaltig, wie wenn man behaupten würde, dass es irrelevant sei, wenn jemand an den Nebenwirkungen eines Medikaments erkrankt, denn diese Nebenwirkungen seien alle schon in der Packungsbeilage beschrieben worden. Doch was interessiert schon die Realität, wenn man hypothetische Gleichgewichtsmodellwelten kreieren kann, um dann mit diesen herumzuspielen. Denn wer das am besten kann, der gilt heute als „grosser Ökonom“ und darf in den angesehensten Fachzeitschriften publizieren. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Who will speak for the 48%?

Posted by hkarner - 3. Juli 2016

Date: 02-07-2016
Source: The Economist

If Labour won’t stand up for Remain voters, it’s time for a new party

BARELY more than a week has gone by since 37% of eligible British voters backed Brexit—52% of those who participated—but already the political landscape is transformed. With Boris Johnson out of the Conservative leadership contest, the choice of the next prime minister is one between various shades of isolationist Euroscepticism.

As Michael Gove made clear at his launch event this morning, he stands for total withdrawal from the European single market and a total end to free movement. Theresa May on Thursday was a little vaguer, emphasising the importance of access to that market. But her suggestion that she would use the rights of EU citizens already in Britain as bargaining chips in the upcoming negotiation does not bode well. Stephen Crabb, for all his modernising overtures, takes a similar stance to Ms May. Liam Fox is a veteran anti-European. And most worrying is Andrea Leadsom, who may end up in the final two, and thus go before the mostly anti-EU Tory members. She is running to the Eurosceptic right of Ms May and has attracted the endorsement of Leave.eu, the more dog-whistle of the two Leave campaigns. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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And shut the door behind you

Posted by hkarner - 2. Juli 2016

Date: 01-07-2016
Source: The Economist: Charlemagne
Everyone feels the pain of Britons in Brussels. But the sympathy won’t last

IN THE prelapsarian days before Britain kicked itself out of the European Union, a charming campaign called “Hug-a-Brit” was waged in Brussels. Designed to convince wavering British voters that they were wanted in Europe, it was only after the referendum that the idea took hold. Since that difficult day Brits in Brussels have been love-bombed by their European counterparts. Colleagues from countries with long histories of bloody tyranny have showered sympathy upon British friends for their country’s self-inflicted wound. Thoughtful Romanians stand ready to adopt British “Remainians”. Greeks, who endured their own referendum-related traumas one year ago, have been especially understanding. Rarely has your columnist felt so appreciated.

Yet if Britain’s citizens are now the subject of pity abroad, its government has become a target for contempt. There is a hint of steel to comments from some officials, particularly French or Italians. We feel your pain, they say, but if you’re leaving do not linger. Such sentiments have slipped into the speeches of hawkish EU officials. When Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, slams David Cameron, Britain’s departing prime minister, for reaping the fruits of years of Euroscepticism, his words find a ready audience across Europe. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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