Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Economist’

Greece and the euro zone: All latest updates

Posted by hkarner - 8. Juli 2015

Date: 08-07-2015
Source: The Economist

Bitter cup

Euro-zone leaders demand Alexis Tsipras offer them a deal harsher than the one Greek voters just rejected. Grexit seems imminent

IT IS hard to sound threatening when you have bared your teeth so many times before. But Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, pulled it off last night. Speaking after the euro zone’s 19 heads of government had failed, yet again, to strike a bail-out deal with Greece’s government, Mr Tusk declared that only five days remained to find common ground. Failure, he said, would be “most painful for the Greek people,” and would also have a “geopolitical” impact on the entire EU. Anyone who believed otherwise, he added, was “naïve”.

Grexit now appears to be the default position of most euro-zone leaders. All 28 of the European Union’s heads of government, including the nine from non-euro zone countries, will meet on Sunday to discuss a humanitarian aid package that could be assembled from the EU budget, should Greece fall out of the euro and into what Mr Tusk called a “black scenario”. Standing next to him, Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, whose visible loss of patience with Greece has told its own story in the last two weeks, thumped his lectern before declaring that the government of Alexis Tsipras  had until 8.30am on Friday to produce a list of reforms it would commit to in exchange for a third bail-out programme. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Quellen zur Griechenland-Berichterstattung

Posted by hkarner - 7. Juli 2015

von H.F. Karner, 7/7

HFKarner Foto by Eva Karner (40)

Sie haben wohl schon gemerkt, dass ich mich bei der Griechenland Berichterstattung  fast ausschließlich auf internationale Medien beziehe:

  • auf die österreichischen habe ich inzwischen zu hoffen verlernt:
    • die Presse ist höchst unausgewogen, voller “Fundis” (bis aus Urschitz, Gaulhofer, Gonsa ud tw. Grimm), schlägt unsachlich und wider besseres Wissen ausschließlich auf die Griechen los. Auf einen Hinweis an den mir persönlich bekannten Chefredakteur, Rainer Nowak, dass die Berichterstattung nicht gut sei, musste ich mir die Antwort geben lassen, er werde sich nicht einmischen. “Stellen Sie bitte diese anmaßenden Aktionen ein”.  Als Presse Leser und Abonnent seit über 40 Jahren weiß ich nun auch, wie ich zu reagieren habe: mit der “Macht des Konsumenten”.
    • der Standard hat fast abgedankt, ist auch bei weitem nicht so komfortabel redaktionsmässig ausgestattet. Seiner “liberaleren” Ausrichtung kommt er nicht nach.
  • Sollten Sie hingegen meinen, die “Deutschen Wirtschaftsnachrichten”, die aus meiner Sicht einigermaßen neutral und DWNkritisch berichten (Sie müssen sich ja selbst ein Bild machen!) seien ein “linkes Kampfblatt”, so darf ich Sie beruhigen: Sie gehören der schwedischen Bonnier Gruppe (ex-Wirtschaftsblatt Gründer in Österreich) und der “Blogform”, einer innovativen Beteiligungsform. Gründer und Maier CCHerausgeber ist der Österreicher Michael Maier Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Ökonomen: Für die Euro-Zone brechen schwere Zeiten an

Posted by hkarner - 6. Juli 2015

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten  |  |

Die meisten Ökonomen erwarten nachhaltige Turbulenzen in der Euro-Zone. Das Risiko eines Grexit sei erheblich gestiegen. Keiner kann erkennen, wie sich die mittlerweile fast schon verfeindeten Parteien auf einen neuen Kompromiss zubewegen sollen.

Sinn cc1HANS-WERNER SINN, IFO-PRÄSIDENT „Griechenlands Staat ist nach der offiziellen Feststellung des Rettungsschirms EFSF insolvent, und da er insolvent ist, sind es auch die Banken, mit denen er vielfach verbunden ist. In dieser Situation darf die EZB nicht mehr zulassen, dass die griechische Notenbank den Banken weitere Notkredite gewährt. Damit kommt die Wirtschaft zum Erliegen, wenn nicht rasch ein neuer fiskalischer Rettungsschirm aufgespannt wird oder Griechenland in die Drachme zurückkehrt. Da absehbar ist, dass die Verhandlungen über einen weiteren Rettungsschirm nur noch mehr Zeit kosten, ohne zum Erfolg zu führen, sollte Griechenland nun den Sprung in die eigene Währung wagen. Die Drachme sollte sofort als virtuelle Währung eingeführt werden, in die alle Kontrakte des Landes einschließlich der Schuldkonktrakte mit Ausländern umgewandelt werden. Das würde die Solvenz des griechischen Staates und der griechischen Banken wieder herstellen“.

MICHAEL HEISE, CHEFVOLKSWIRT ALLIANZ „Die Wiederaufnahme der Verhandlungen dürfte sich als äußerst schwierig gestalten. Jetzt ist die griechische Regierung gefordert, einen Vorschlag zu machen, wie es nach dem Referendum weitergehen soll. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Die selbstgerechte Erklärkavallerie aus Amerika

Posted by hkarner - 5. Juli 2015

05.07.2015 | 19:12 | Oliver Grimm (Die Presse)

Analyse. Intellektuell arrogant, selektiv in der Faktenwahl und ohne Ahnung von Europa bestärken US-Ökonomen die griechische Regierung in ihrem fatalen Kurs.

Paul Krugman, Wirtschaftsnobelpreisträger von der Princeton University, war dieser Tage auf Radurlaub, doch das hat den Starkolumnisten der „New York Times“ nicht davon abgehalten, seine Meinung zur griechischen Misere zu verschriftlichen. „Was mich erstaunt, ist, wie vergleichsweise mild Griechenlands fiskalische Probleme am Vorabend der Krise aussahen“, schrieb Krugman. Im Jahr 2007 nämlich habe der öffentliche Schuldenstand nur etwas mehr als 100 Prozent der Wirtschaftsleistung betragen. Krugman baut auf diesen und anderen Überlegungen seinen Rat an die Griechen auf, sich von der „Zwangsjacke des Euro“ zu befreien und eine abgewertete Drachme einzuführen. Das würde ihnen „eine Chance auf echte Erholung“ eröffnen und „als heilsamer Schock für die Gleichgültigkeit von Europas Eliten dienen“.

Halten wir fest: Einer der führenden Intellektuellen der USA weiß offenkundig nicht, dass die griechische Krise nicht 2007, sondern im Herbst 2009 ausbrach, als die neue sozialistische Regierung unter Giorgos Papandreou ihren europäischen Partnern gestehen musste, von ihrer konservativen Vorgängerin nicht 6,7 Prozent an Neuverschuldung, sondern 12,7 Prozent geerbt zu haben (diese Zahl wurde später nochmals erhöht). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Week of Unseen Things

Posted by hkarner - 5. Juli 2015

By John Mauldin, July 4, 2015

“There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen.

“Yet this difference is tremendous; for it almost always happens that when the immediate consequence is favorable, the later consequences are disastrous, and vice versa. Whence it follows that the bad economist pursues a small present good that will be followed by a great evil to come, while the good economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil.”

– From an essay by Frédéric Bastiat, “That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Unseen,” 1850 Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The euro zone thought it could muddle through with Syriza. It was wrong

Posted by hkarner - 4. Juli 2015

Date: 04-07-2015
Source: The Economist: Charlemagne
Subject: The end of fudge

ANDREAS PAPANDREOU, a proud Greek socialist who stood up to his country’s coup-mongering generals in the 1960s, won an election in October 1981 by fulminating against the European Economic Community (as it was then known) and vowing to lead Greece out of NATO. But in office he executed a graceful kolotoumba (somersault), discovering a taste for European subsidies that could be used to expand his crony state and turning himself into an engaged, if awkward, NATO partner. Greece’s interests, Papandreou determined, were best served by exploiting the rules of the clubs it belonged to, not by tearing them up.

The ties that bind Europe’s political elites have often turned out to be extraordinarily strong. Sometimes they oblige weak leaders to jettison election pledges. Take François Hollande, who took office in 2012 promising to end European austerity but instead finds himself battling to please Germany by reforming France’s sclerotic economy. When referendums go the “wrong” way, as with Ireland’s rejection of the Lisbon treaty in 2009, leaders tweak the text and ask citizens to vote again. The serial bail-outs of the past five years may have empowered populists in creditor and debtor nations, but they have not led to irreparable ruptures. Indeed, these days many politicians in Portugal, Ireland and Cyprus speak warmly, if sotto voce, of the reforms and cuts they had to undertake to stay in the euro zone. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe’s future in Greece’s hands

Posted by hkarner - 3. Juli 2015

Date: 02-07-2015
Source: The Economist

Whatever its outcome, the Greek crisis will change the EU for ever

THE European Union has never seen the like of the past eight days in Greece: barred banks, capital controls, the first IMF default by a developed country, the collapse of a multi-billion-euro bail-out, plans for a referendum that may hasten Greece’s ejection from the single currency, and the beggary of the people. Were the stakes not so high, all those emergency summits and last-minute demands would count as farce.

Instead it is a tragedy, where an outcome that all sides say they do not want—Greece’s exit from the euro—seems increasingly likely. The chaos is evidence that leaving the euro would be disastrous for Greece, not least because modest gains from default and devaluation would be overwhelmed by political and economic instability. For the rest of Europe, too, “Grexit” has well-rehearsed risks, notably that of a failing state on the continent’s south-eastern flank. But as the drama has become more desperate, so Europeans seem less worried. They take comfort from the fact that Greece is uniquely dysfunctional. Game-playing and repeated miscalculation have poisoned the negotiations (see article). Without Greece, many now conclude, the euro zone might actually be more stable.

Sadly, that is wrong. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why fintech won’t kill banks

Posted by hkarner - 17. Juni 2015

Date: 17-06-2015
Source: The Economist

BANKS weren’t much loved before 2007, and the bailing-out of a bunch of them in the financial crisis hardly helped endear them to the public. A slew of startups in the “fintech” space—short for “financial technology”—now reckon they can do better. Bright young things based in San Francisco, New York, London and Stockholm are raising billions of dollars in venture capital to “disrupt” financial services. With much brashness, these t-shirt-wearing whizz-kids are confident they will do to banks what digital photography did to Kodak and transistors to vacuum-tube makers. Will fintech succeed in killing off today’s financial services giants?

Fintech is certainly upending many different niches in finance. Punters wanting to borrow money can now eschew their bank (or credit card) and instead tap “peer-to-peer” lending platforms that match borrowers and savers, such as Lending Club or RateSetter. It is now much cheaper for a person or business to transfer money internationally through TransferWise than through a bank branch. Square, Apple Pay or Braintree process payments, for example debiting your bank account automatically when you finish an Uber journey. A slew of “robo-advisors” such as Betterment or Nutmeg even help you invest your savings. And so on. At least 4,000 fintech startups are active; over a dozen of them are valued at over $1 billion. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How inequality affects growth

Posted by hkarner - 16. Juni 2015

Date: 16-06-2015
Source: The Economist

INEQUALITY sits at the top of the political agenda in many countries around the world. Hillary Clinton, the leading Democratic candidate to succeed Barack Obama as president of the United States, made inequality the centrepiece of a major campaign speech on June 14th. On June 18th Pope Francis will deliver an encyclical, a high-level Vatican pronouncement, which is expected to address the problem of global inequality, among other issues. And on June 15th economists at the IMF released a study assessing the causes and consequences of rising inequality. The authors reckon that while inequality could cause all sorts of problems, governments should be especially concerned about its effects on growth. They estimate that a one percentage point increase in the income share of the top 20% will drag down growth by 0.08 percentage points over five years, while a rise in the income share of the bottom 20% actually boosts growth. But how does inequality affect economic growth rates? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Fund managers are not like banks

Posted by hkarner - 13. Juni 2015

Date: 12-06-2015
Source: The Economist: Buttonwood
Subject: The wrong solution

IMAGINE how the financial crisis of late 2016 might play out. A surge in wage inflation, caused by a tight labour market, prompts the Federal Reserve to push up interest rates more quickly than the markets expect. Both government and corporate bonds fall in price.

That creates a problem for funds that specialise in corporate debt. They had promised investors that they could redeem their holdings at any time, but the corporate-bond market is very illiquid; many bonds prove almost impossible to sell. Some funds are forced to impose “gates”, limiting fundholders’ access to their money. The restrictions cause a panic among investors, who scramble to sell all bond-fund holdings. Prices plunge, in effect closing the market for new issuers: firms find it impossible to raise new cash. Rumours about financial problems at a big fund manager start to circulate. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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