Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Cyprus’

Lies, Damn Lies, and European Growth Statistics

Posted by hkarner - 16. März 2016

Photo of Yanis VaroufakisMay I use a similar escalation? „Mad, madder, Varoufakis“ (hfk)

Yanis Varoufakis

Yanis Varoufakis, a former finance minister of Greece, is Professor of Economics at the University of Athens.

MAR 15, 2016, Project Syndicate

ATHENS – “Greece has at last returned to economic growth.” That was the official European Union storyline at the end of 2014. Alas, Greek voters, unimpressed by this rejoicing, ousted the incumbent government and, in January 2015, voted for a new administration in which I served as finance minister.

Last week, similarly celebratory reports emanated from Brussels heralding the “return to growth” in Cyprus, and contrasting this piece of “good” news to Greece’s “return to recession.” The message from the troika of European bailout lenders – the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund – is loud and clear: “Do as we say, like Cyprus has done, and you will recover. Resist our policies, by electing people like Varoufakis, and you will suffer the consequences of further recession.”

This is a powerful story. Except that it is built on a disingenuous lie. Greece was not recovering in 2014, and Cyprus’s national income has not recovered yet. The EU’s claims to the contrary are based on an inappropriate focus on “real” national income, a metric bound to mislead during periods of falling prices. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Lessons from Cyprus that did not make it to Greece

Posted by hkarner - 12. August 2015

Anil Ari, Giancarlo Corsetti, Andria Lysiotou 10 August 2015, voxeu

PhD Candidate, University of Cambridge

Giancarlo Corsetti

Professor of Macroeconomics, University of Cambridge and Programme Director, CEPR

PhD student at the Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Program Notes for the Greek Endgame: Austerity, Cyprus, and Currency Union Exits

Posted by hkarner - 30. Juni 2015

Author: Ed Dolan  ·  June 30th, 2015  ·  RGE EconoMonitorDolan cc

The Greek government has rejected the latest austerity and reform proposals from the EU, the ECB, and the IMF.  It has declared a national referendum, scheduled for Sunday, and urges a “No” vote. “”We ask you to reject it with all the might of your soul, with the greatest margin possible,” says Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. Greek banks, which have been hit by an accelerating run, are to remain closed until after the vote. Yet rumors swirl of behind-the-scenes talk and a last minute deal.

We don’t yet know what lies ahead—default? Exit from the euro? Exit from the EU? Some kind of muddling through with a parallel currency and a declaration that any default is “only technical”? Answers to those questions will come only after Greek voters make a choice.

Meanwhile, here are some program notes and links to background material that should help place the Greek crisis in the context of similar episodes elsewhere.

How Tough has Greek Austerity Really Been? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Bang! Moment Shock

Posted by hkarner - 14. Juli 2013

‎14. ‎Juli ‎2013, ‏‎Vor 11 Stunden | John Mauldin

This Country Is Different
The Bang! Moment Shock

Future shock is the shattering stress and disorientation that we induce in individuals by subjecting them to too much change in too short a time.

– Alvin Toffler

What is it about humans that we fail to see a crisis in advance, yet when we look back, its likelihood or inevitability so often seems blindingly obvious? Rather than a flaw, our under-reliance on foresight as opposed to hindsight is perhaps a necessary evolutionary design feature that has allowed us to make rapid progress as a species (especially over the last few thousand years), but in a complex modern society it can really create quite the crisis for individuals. This week we resume our musings about Cyprus, to see what that tiny island can teach us about our own personal need to engage in ongoing critical analysis of our lives and investment portfolios. Cyprus is not Greece or France or Spain or Japan or the US or … (pick a country). I get that. No two situations are the same, but there may be a rhyme or two here that is instructive.

This Country Is Different

In 1974, Turkey invaded Cyprus. Eventually the island was divided into two zones, and Greeks in the Turkish zone, like Turks in the Greek zone, were forced to leave with only the clothes on their backs and little else. That was a defining moment for Cyprus, and the aftershock is still evident when you get past the normal polite conversation. Plus, the wall dividing the two countries is always there when you are in the capital city of Nicosia, although lately there are a few places where you can cross into the other zone. The first night I was in Nicosia, we ate dinner outside at a Greek taverna (what else?) that stands almost in the shadow of the wall. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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“This Country Is Different”

Posted by hkarner - 4. Juli 2013

‎Montag, ‎01. ‎Juli ‎2013, ‏‎23:23:00 | John Mauldin

What’s the Deal?
Is the Trend Your Friend?

Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works.

– John Mills, „On Credit Cycles and the Origin of Commercial Panics,“ 1867

Hyman Minsky developed an economics of financial instability, of instability bred by stability itself…. Minsky’s approach, very different from Godley’s, is conceptual rather than statistical. A key virtue is that it puts finance at the center of economic analysis, analytically inseparable from what is sometimes called real economic activity, for the simple reason that capitalistic economies are run by banks.

To grasp what Minsky is about, it seems to me, is to go immediately beyond the coarse notion of the ‚Minsky moment,‘ a concept which implies falsely that there are also non-Minsky moments. It is to recognize that the financial system is both necessary and dangerous, that strict financial regulation is both indispensable and imperfect.

– James Galbraith, 5th annual Dijon conference on post-Keynesian economics, Copenhagen, May 2011

I find myself finishing this letter on an island off the coast of Croatia, on the backside of the middle of nowhere. But it is the perfect place to contemplate my recent experience in Cyprus. Through the efforts of your fellow readers, I was able to meet a wide variety of people and have some in-depth discussions on the crisis that has enveloped Cyprus. And while the details are different, of course, there is a pattern to the weave, so to speak, that calls to mind various aspects of the crisis that began in 2008. And perhaps that pattern will give us a glimpse of what else may be coming our way.

You must first realize that Cyprus is a very small country, some 800,000 people. Among the leadership, everyone knows everyone. There is much to admire, as we will see. But Cyprus has had a gut-wrenching crisis, proportionately more dire than any in other European countries recently; and precedents are being established here for how future problems will be dealt with in the Eurozone and elsewhere. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Letter from Nicosia: Cyprus Says It Needs More Help from EU

Posted by hkarner - 26. Juni 2013

Spiegel

In a letter to euro-zone leaders, Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades has asked that the bailout package for his country be revisited. The effects on the island nation’s economy have been much greater than expected, he writes. EU leaders are „puzzled.“

Less than three months have passed since the European Union, together with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), assembled a €10 billion ($13.4 billion) bailout package for Cyprus to prevent the country’s banking system from collapsing. But Nicosia, according to reports in the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal, already finds itself in need of additional help.

In a letter sent to euro-zone leaders last week, and obtained by both business dailies on Tuesday, Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades says that the bailout package, which included the restructuring of the country’s two largest banks, was „implemented without careful preparation“ and that it has damaged the island nation’s economy to a greater degree than expected.

„The economy is driven into a deep recession, leading to a further rise in unemployment and making fiscal consolidation all the more difficult,“ Anastasiades wrote, according to a passage quoted by the Financial Times.

„I urge you to review the possibilities in order to determine a viable prospect for Cyprus and its people.“ Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Cyprus, corruption, money laundering and Russian round-trip investment

Posted by hkarner - 19. Juni 2013

Svetlana Ledyaeva, Päivi Karhunen, John Whalley, 17 June 2013, voxeu

Russian involvement in Cyprus was widely recognised during the acute phase of the most recent EZ crisis. This column argues that some of this is driven by corruption-linked money laundering. Using official Russian statistics, the authors estimate a standard model of FDI location to identify usual patterns related to nations with lax anti-money laundering measures such as Cyprus and the British Virgin Islands. Funds from such nations were biased towards locating investments in the most corrupt Russian regions compared to a group of genuine foreign investors.

The financial relationship between Cyprus and Russia has received a lot of attention as a result of the recent crisis in Cyprus (Wyplosz 2013). A large amount of Russian money has been invested in this small Mediterranean economy over the last two decades. It has been estimated that about one half to a third of all Cyprus bank deposits are of Russian origin. According to the ratings agency Moody`s, there is about $31 billion in Russian money in Cypriot bank accounts: $12 billion from banks and $19 billion from business and individuals (Young 2013). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Offener Brief an die österreichische Finanzministerin wegen möglichen Zypern-Bailouts, Ihre Antwort, unsere Gegenstellungnahme

Posted by hkarner - 3. Juni 2013

Fekter III

Dies ist ja gut gemeint und wahrscheinlich auch so beabsichtigt – wenn es nur so wäre! Leider ist genau das Gegenteil der Fall. Die Zypern zur Verfügung gestellten Mittel fließen in das Staatsbudget und nachdem Zypern überschuldet ist, also die bestehenden Staatsschulden ohne Hilfe nicht mehr zins-und tilgungsmäßig bedienen kann, wird dieses Geld primär für Zinsen und Tilgung von fälligen Staatsschulden aufgewandt, fließt also hauptsächlich den finanzierenden ausländischen (westeuropäischen) Banken und Investoren zu. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Hans-Werner Sinn im Gespräch„Es lohnt sich, den Euro zu verteidigen“

Posted by hkarner - 2. Mai 2013

Date: 02-05-2013
Source: Frankfurter Allgemeine

Sinn cc Starökonom Hans-Werner Sinn plädiert im Interview für eine Währungsunion der Starken und verlangt höhere Opfer von den Sparern und den Banken.

In Zypern wurden Sparer bis zu einem Guthaben von 100.000 Euro gerettet. Die Grenze war zu hoch“, sagt Hans-Werner Sinn, Wirtschaftsprofessor und Präsident des ifo-Instituts

Professor Sinn, in Deutschland fordert eine neue Partei den Ausstieg aus dem Euro. Zu Recht?

Die Argumente der Partei sind größtenteils vernünftig. Bernd Lucke und viele seiner Mitstreiter sind anerkannte Ökonomen, die wissen, wovon sie reden. Trotzdem gehöre ich der Partei nicht an und gebe dem Euro noch mehr Chancen, als die Kollegen es tun.

Halten Sie die Rückkehr zur D-Mark für unrealistisch?

Ich glaube, dass es sich lohnt, den Euro als solchen zu verteidigen. Ich halte es aber für einen großen Fehler, die schwachen Länder Südeuropas auf Biegen und Brechen im Euro zu halten. Damit hilft man diesen Ländern nicht, und man verringert die Überlebenswahrscheinlichkeit des Euro.

Beruhigt sich die Krise nicht gerade etwas?

Nur vordergründig, weil die Steuerzahler der noch gesunden Länder über die Europäische Zentralbank und den Hilfsfonds ESM gewaltige Kredit- und Haftungsrisiken eingehen. Das hilft den privaten Gläubigern der südlichen Länder, sich aus dem Staube zu machen, aber es macht die Staaten des Nordens an ihrer Stelle zu Gläubigern des Südens. Streit und Zwietracht zwischen den Völkern sind dadurch programmiert. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Zyprisches Kasino

Posted by hkarner - 30. April 2013

29. April 2013 10:10, SZ

Bericht zur Bankenkrise

Von Christiane Schlötzer und Tasos Telloglou, Athen

Ein interner Revisionsbericht offenbart: Das Ende der Laiki-Bank ist auch das Ergebnis von Misswirtschaft und hoch riskanter Kreditgeschäfte. Im Zentrum der Vorwürfe steht der griechische Investor Andreas Vgenopoulos – der zeigt jedoch mit dem Finger auf andere.

Ein Fußballstadion, in dem kein Ball rollt, Spielkasinos, die kein Glück bringen, Millionenkredite für einen TV-Sender, der nun pleite ist, und mehr seltsame Geldgeschäfte haben die zyprische Laiki-Bank ebenso an den Abgrund geführt wie Investitionen in griechische Staatspapiere, deren Wert sich in Luft aufgelöst hat. Athens Schulden als Ursache für das unrühmliche Ende der 112 Jahre alten Bank und damit für die tiefe zyprische Finanzkrise sind weithin bekannt. Von den riskanten Krediten – für griechische Kunden – ist dagegen wenig die Rede, obwohl sie bereits in einem internen Prüfbericht der Bank vom 11. Januar 2012 penibel aufgelistet sind.

Der Bericht der internen Revision, der der Süddeutschen Zeitung vorliegt, wurde erstellt, als sich die Laiki-Bank schon in Schieflage befand. 2012 musste das Geldhaus zu 84 Prozent vom Staat übernommen werden. Der „strikt vertrauliche“ Bericht war für die Bankspitze bestimmt. Damit müsste ihn auch der inzwischen als Finanzminister zurückgetretene Michalis Sarris gekannt haben, der bei Laiki die Aufsicht führte. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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