Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Confidence’

Corporate Europe is giddy with optimism

Posted by hkarner - 17. Juni 2017

Date: 15-06-2017
Source: The Economist

Emmanuel Macron’s arrival on the scene has transformed the mood

IT IS remarkable what a difference a single election can make. “The way Europe is regarded by the rest of the world has changed in a few months,” says Gérard Mestrallet, chairman of both Engie and SUEZ, two big French energy firms, and a board member at Siemens of Germany, the region’s biggest engineering firm. The arrival of Emmanuel Macron as France’s reform-minded new president—his party is set for a giant victory in parliamentary elections this week—is helping to transform attitudes from gloom to cheer.

Mr Mestrallet echoes many corporate leaders in describing “real hope and enthusiasm”, amid expectations that the new president will, within months, “de-block” the euro zone’s second-largest economy. Mr Macron will start freeing business activities, he says, first with legislative reform of a rigid labour market to simplify rules on hiring and firing, and then by cutting tax rates (the corporate kind will fall from 34.4% to 25%). Measures to boost entrepreneurship and young technology firms are also expected. This may all sound over-optimistic, but Mr Mestrallet merely captures an ebullient mood that is spreading across Europe. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Practical Agenda for Revolutionary Times

Posted by hkarner - 22. April 2017

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“In Case You Thought Trump Was Imploding….”

Posted by hkarner - 12. Februar 2017

Posted on February 11, 2017 by Yves Smith

Yves here. This is a short but important illustration of how having the unified voice of the mainstream media plus the many allies of the Democratic party in the punditocracy and The Blob all working as hard as they can against Trump is not proving to be as effective as they’d have you believe, even with them putting Trump on the defensive for his almost daily unforced errors.

Recall that we warned that Trump would be forgiven a great deal if he increased wages and lowered unemployment. Keep your eye on that ball.

By New Deal Democrat. Originally published at Angry Bear

For those of you who may be cocooned in the liberal blogosphere, I’m afraid I must administer a cold slap in the face. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Varoufakis Effect?

Posted by hkarner - 27. Januar 2016

Photo of Yanis Varoufakis

Yanis Varoufakis

Yanis Varoufakis, a former finance minister of Greece, is Professor of Economics at the University of Athens.

JAN 26, 2016, Project Syndicate

ATHENS – In his end-of-2015 missive, Holger Schmieding of the Hamburg investment bank Berenberg warned his firm’s clients that what they should be worrying about now is political risk. To illustrate, he posted the diagram below, showing how business confidence collapsed in Greece during the late spring of 2015, and picked up again only after my resignation from the finance ministry. Schmieding chose to call this the “Varoufakis effect.”

There is no doubt that investors should be worried – very worried – about political risk nowadays, including the capacity of politicians and bureaucrats to do untold damage to an economy. But they must also be wary of analysts who are either incapable of, or uninterested in, distinguishing between causality and correlation, and between insolvency and illiquidity. In other words, they must be wary of analysts like Schmieding.

Business confidence in Greece did indeed plummet a few months after I became Finance Minister. And it did pick up a month after my resignation. The correlation is palpable. But is the causality? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Wall Street – Nobelpreisträger fürchtet Kurssturz

Posted by hkarner - 20. August 2014

Danke an J.G.

Managermagazin online, 18/8

Von Christoph Rottwilm

Shiller CC

„Cape-Ratio auf besorgniserregendem Niveau“: Nobelpreisträger Robert Shiller

So teuer wie zurzeit waren Aktien an der US-Börse nur dreimal in der Geschichte, hat Robert Shiller ausgerechnet. Der Nobelpreisträger fragt sich daher: Wann kommt diesmal der Einbruch?

Hamburg – An den wichtigen Börsen der Welt sind die Aktienkurse in den vergangenen Jahren enorm gestiegen. Der breit gefächerte Index S&P 500 an der Wall Street etwa legte allein seit Anfang 2013 um etwa 25 Prozent zu. Der Dax Chart zeigen in Frankfurt verzeichnete bis vor kurzem ein ähnliches Plus und kommt nach den Rückschlägen der jüngsten Zeit auf Sicht der vergangenen gut eineinhalb Jahre immerhin noch auf rund 15 Prozent Kursgewinn.

Was jedoch noch wichtiger ist: Die Kurse sind nicht nur optisch gestiegen, die Papiere sind vielmehr auch vergleichsweise teuer. Ablesen lässt sich das zum Beispiel an der Cape-Ratio, auch Shiller-KGV genannt. Diese Kennzahl setzt das aktuelle Kursniveau einer Aktie, einer Branche oder eines kompletten Marktes ins Verhältnis zu den Unternehmensgewinnen, und zwar letztere gemessen über die Zeit der jeweils zurückliegenden zehn Jahre.

Die schlechte Nachricht: Nach Ansicht von Robert Shiller, Erfinder und Namensgeber der Kennzahl, gibt es zumindest für die US-Börse derzeit durchaus Grund zur Sorge. Der US-Aktienmarkt erscheint zurzeit sehr teuer, schreibt der Nobelpreisträger in einemBeitrag für die „New York Times“ („NYT“). Die Cape-Ratio schwebe auf einem besorgniserregenden Niveau.

In Zahlen heißt das: Nach Angaben des Ökonomen beträgt die Cape-Ratio für die US-Börse derzeit mehr als 25. Diese Zahl sei seit 1881 überhaupt nur dreimal überschritten worden, nämlich in den Jahren um 1929, 1999 und 2007. Kenner wissen: In jeder dieser Perioden folgte auf den Höhenflug der Aktienkurse ein empfindlicher Einbruch. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Pros lose confidence in the market

Posted by hkarner - 24. August 2012

Date: 24-08-2012
Source: Fortune

The reason for stock market skittishness might be more mundane than high-frequency trading and computer algorithms gone amuck.

FORTUNE — The TABB Group, a research firm that specializes in stock trading and technology, is out with what appears to be a concerning stat: Just 2% of professional investors completely trust the market.

It’s become a common line to say that Knight Capital’s recent trading glitch, the bungled Facebook IPO and the 2010 Flash Crash is either adding to or the root cause of individuals‘ skittishness with the market. As evidence, people point to the fact that money has continued to come out of stock funds even as the market has rallied. Now TABB is saying it’s not just individuals but pros who are growing nervous. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The euro crisis: Going, going, gone?

Posted by hkarner - 17. Mai 2012

Date: 16-05-2012
Source: The Economist

SO MUCH of modern finance is a confidence game. Banks borrow short and lend long. A perfectly solvent bank can therefore go bust if depositors panic and rush to pull money out. This is why modern financial systems have backstops, despite the moral hazard cost; in their absence, the economy is at risk of irrational destruction.

European leaders have been playing their game with Greece like confidence doesn’t matter. They have behaved as if an adjustment is necessary, and the only question at issue is which side will bear its costs. But confidence matters. As time has gone on, markets have become less sure of the talk that Greece would never be allowed to leave the euro area. The euro zone’s chief leaders have been more concerned about moral hazard than this confidence dynamic. We know what happens in such cases; the lack of confidence destroys the system. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Death of a Fairy Tale

Posted by hkarner - 28. April 2012

Date: 27-04-2012


This was the month the confidence fairy died.

For the past two years most policy makers in Europe and many politicians and pundits in America have been in thrall to a destructive economic doctrine. According to this doctrine, governments should respond to a severely depressed economy not the way the textbooks say they should — by spending more to offset falling private demand — but with fiscal austerity, slashing spending in an effort to balance their budgets. 

Critics warned from the beginning that austerity in the face of depression would only make that depression worse. But the “austerians” insisted that the reverse would happen. Why? Confidence!

“Confidence-inspiring policies will foster and not hamper economic recovery,” declared Jean-Claude Trichet, the former president of the European Central Bank — a claim echoed by Republicans in Congress here. Or as I put it way back when, the idea was that the confidence fairy would come in and reward policy makers for their fiscal virtue.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Euro-Zone Confidence Rises

Posted by hkarner - 31. Januar 2012

Date: 31-01-2012
Source: The Wall Street Journal

LONDON—Consumers and service providers in the euro zone head into February more upbeat about their prospects, a development that suggests the currency area’s economy may be stabilizing.

The European Commission Monday said the overall measure of business and consumer confidence in the 17 countries that share the euro—-known as the Economic Sentiment Indicator—rose to 93.4 in January from 92.8 in December. However, that outcome was weaker than the 93.6 forecast by economists and there was significant divergence between countries.

Although official figures will only be released on Feb. 15, many economists believe the euro-zone economy contracted in the fourth quarter of 2011.

But recent evidence suggests that the economy may have stabilized at the start of the year, and the confidence survey is consistent with that view.

Together with other surveys, it may help persuade the European Central Bank to leave its monetary policy unchanged when its governing council meets next month.

The survey came as new data indicated Germany’s consumer price inflation slowed in January on the year according to a preliminary reading, in line with expectations, leaving intact forecasts that the slowdown in euro-zone inflation will continue. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Confidence Game

Posted by hkarner - 29. März 2011

Grant  Williams, 29-3

“O, swear not by the moon, the fickle moon, the inconstant moon, that monthly changes in her circle orb, Lest that thy love prove likewise variable.”– william shakespeare

Doyle Lonnegan: “Your boss is quite a card player, Mr. Kelly; how does he do it?”Johnny Hooker: “He cheats.”– The Sting

“In today’s regulatory environment, it’s virtually impossible to violate rules … but it’s impossible for a violation to go undetected, certainly not for a considerable period of time”– Bernard Madoff Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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