Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Nach den kristallklaren Aussagen des Föhrenbergkreises zur Finanzwirtschaft aus dem Jahr 1999 gibt es jetzt einen neuen Arbeitskreis zum Thema.

Mit ‘Confidence’ getaggte Beiträge

Pros lose confidence in the market

Geschrieben von hkarner - 24. August 2012

Date: 24-08-2012
Source: Fortune

The reason for stock market skittishness might be more mundane than high-frequency trading and computer algorithms gone amuck.

FORTUNE — The TABB Group, a research firm that specializes in stock trading and technology, is out with what appears to be a concerning stat: Just 2% of professional investors completely trust the market.

It’s become a common line to say that Knight Capital’s recent trading glitch, the bungled Facebook IPO and the 2010 Flash Crash is either adding to or the root cause of individuals’ skittishness with the market. As evidence, people point to the fact that money has continued to come out of stock funds even as the market has rallied. Now TABB is saying it’s not just individuals but pros who are growing nervous. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The euro crisis: Going, going, gone?

Geschrieben von hkarner - 17. Mai 2012

Date: 16-05-2012
Source: The Economist

SO MUCH of modern finance is a confidence game. Banks borrow short and lend long. A perfectly solvent bank can therefore go bust if depositors panic and rush to pull money out. This is why modern financial systems have backstops, despite the moral hazard cost; in their absence, the economy is at risk of irrational destruction.

European leaders have been playing their game with Greece like confidence doesn’t matter. They have behaved as if an adjustment is necessary, and the only question at issue is which side will bear its costs. But confidence matters. As time has gone on, markets have become less sure of the talk that Greece would never be allowed to leave the euro area. The euro zone’s chief leaders have been more concerned about moral hazard than this confidence dynamic. We know what happens in such cases; the lack of confidence destroys the system. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Death of a Fairy Tale

Geschrieben von hkarner - 28. April 2012

Date: 27-04-2012

Source: PAUL KRUGMAN, NYT

This was the month the confidence fairy died.

For the past two years most policy makers in Europe and many politicians and pundits in America have been in thrall to a destructive economic doctrine. According to this doctrine, governments should respond to a severely depressed economy not the way the textbooks say they should — by spending more to offset falling private demand — but with fiscal austerity, slashing spending in an effort to balance their budgets. 

Critics warned from the beginning that austerity in the face of depression would only make that depression worse. But the “austerians” insisted that the reverse would happen. Why? Confidence!

“Confidence-inspiring policies will foster and not hamper economic recovery,” declared Jean-Claude Trichet, the former president of the European Central Bank — a claim echoed by Republicans in Congress here. Or as I put it way back when, the idea was that the confidence fairy would come in and reward policy makers for their fiscal virtue.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Euro-Zone Confidence Rises

Geschrieben von hkarner - 31. Januar 2012

Date: 31-01-2012
Source: The Wall Street Journal

LONDON—Consumers and service providers in the euro zone head into February more upbeat about their prospects, a development that suggests the currency area’s economy may be stabilizing.

The European Commission Monday said the overall measure of business and consumer confidence in the 17 countries that share the euro—-known as the Economic Sentiment Indicator—rose to 93.4 in January from 92.8 in December. However, that outcome was weaker than the 93.6 forecast by economists and there was significant divergence between countries.

Although official figures will only be released on Feb. 15, many economists believe the euro-zone economy contracted in the fourth quarter of 2011.

But recent evidence suggests that the economy may have stabilized at the start of the year, and the confidence survey is consistent with that view.

Together with other surveys, it may help persuade the European Central Bank to leave its monetary policy unchanged when its governing council meets next month.

The survey came as new data indicated Germany’s consumer price inflation slowed in January on the year according to a preliminary reading, in line with expectations, leaving intact forecasts that the slowdown in euro-zone inflation will continue. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Confidence Game

Geschrieben von hkarner - 29. März 2011

Grant  Williams, 29-3

“O, swear not by the moon, the fickle moon, the inconstant moon, that monthly changes in her circle orb, Lest that thy love prove likewise variable.”– william shakespeare

Doyle Lonnegan: “Your boss is quite a card player, Mr. Kelly; how does he do it?”Johnny Hooker: “He cheats.”– The Sting

“In today’s regulatory environment, it’s virtually impossible to violate rules … but it’s impossible for a violation to go undetected, certainly not for a considerable period of time”– Bernard Madoff Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Globalisation

Geschrieben von hkarner - 17. Dezember 2010

 Date: 16-12-2010
 Source: The Economist

“HOPE” is one of the most overused words in public life, up there with “change”. Yet it matters enormously. Politicians pay close attention to right-track/wrong-track indicators. Confidence determines whether consumers spend, and so whether companies invest. The “power of positive thinking”, as Norman Vincent Peale pointed out, is enormous.

For the past 400 years the West has enjoyed a comparative advantage over the rest of the world when it comes to optimism. Western intellectuals dreamed up the ideas of enlightenment and progress, and Western men of affairs harnessed technology to impose their will on the rest of the world. The Founding Fathers of the United States, who firmly believed that the country they created would be better than any that had come before, offered citizens not just life and liberty but also the pursuit of happiness.
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How Confident are German Businesses of a Sustainable Economic Recovery?

Geschrieben von hkarner - 25. November 2009

On November 24, 2009, the economic research institute Ifo announced a further improvement in German business confidence. According to the survey, which is based on 7,000 executives, business confidence reached a 15-month high of 93.9 in November 2009. Despite eight consecutive increases since April 2009, the index is still below its long-term average of 96 points, and the rate of increase has been slowing down in the recent months. While the survey results point to economic expansion in the second half of 2009, the question remains how sustainable the upswing will prove thereafter.

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