Posted by hkarner - 27. Januar 2016
Yanis Varoufakis, a former finance minister of Greece, is Professor of Economics at the University of Athens.
JAN 26, 2016, Project Syndicate
ATHENS – In his end-of-2015 missive, Holger Schmieding of the Hamburg investment bank Berenberg warned his firm’s clients that what they should be worrying about now is political risk. To illustrate, he posted the diagram below, showing how business confidence collapsed in Greece during the late spring of 2015, and picked up again only after my resignation from the finance ministry. Schmieding chose to call this the “Varoufakis effect.”
There is no doubt that investors should be worried – very worried – about political risk nowadays, including the capacity of politicians and bureaucrats to do untold damage to an economy. But they must also be wary of analysts who are either incapable of, or uninterested in, distinguishing between causality and correlation, and between insolvency and illiquidity. In other words, they must be wary of analysts like Schmieding.
Business confidence in Greece did indeed plummet a few months after I became Finance Minister. And it did pick up a month after my resignation. The correlation is palpable. But is the causality? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Confidence, Euro, Finanzkrise, Greece, Project Syndicate, Troika, Varoufakis; | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 20. August 2014
Danke an J.G.
Managermagazin online, 18/8
Von Christoph Rottwilm
“Cape-Ratio auf besorgniserregendem Niveau”: Nobelpreisträger Robert Shiller
So teuer wie zurzeit waren Aktien an der US-Börse nur dreimal in der Geschichte, hat Robert Shiller ausgerechnet. Der Nobelpreisträger fragt sich daher: Wann kommt diesmal der Einbruch?
Hamburg – An den wichtigen Börsen der Welt sind die Aktienkurse in den vergangenen Jahren enorm gestiegen. Der breit gefächerte Index S&P 500 an der Wall Street etwa legte allein seit Anfang 2013 um etwa 25 Prozent zu. Der Dax in Frankfurt verzeichnete bis vor kurzem ein ähnliches Plus und kommt nach den Rückschlägen der jüngsten Zeit auf Sicht der vergangenen gut eineinhalb Jahre immerhin noch auf rund 15 Prozent Kursgewinn.
Was jedoch noch wichtiger ist: Die Kurse sind nicht nur optisch gestiegen, die Papiere sind vielmehr auch vergleichsweise teuer. Ablesen lässt sich das zum Beispiel an der Cape-Ratio, auch Shiller-KGV genannt. Diese Kennzahl setzt das aktuelle Kursniveau einer Aktie, einer Branche oder eines kompletten Marktes ins Verhältnis zu den Unternehmensgewinnen, und zwar letztere gemessen über die Zeit der jeweils zurückliegenden zehn Jahre.
Die schlechte Nachricht: Nach Ansicht von Robert Shiller, Erfinder und Namensgeber der Kennzahl, gibt es zumindest für die US-Börse derzeit durchaus Grund zur Sorge. Der US-Aktienmarkt erscheint zurzeit sehr teuer, schreibt der Nobelpreisträger in einemBeitrag für die “New York Times” (“NYT”). Die Cape-Ratio schwebe auf einem besorgniserregenden Niveau.
In Zahlen heißt das: Nach Angaben des Ökonomen beträgt die Cape-Ratio für die US-Börse derzeit mehr als 25. Diese Zahl sei seit 1881 überhaupt nur dreimal überschritten worden, nämlich in den Jahren um 1929, 1999 und 2007. Kenner wissen: In jeder dieser Perioden folgte auf den Höhenflug der Aktienkurse ein empfindlicher Einbruch. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: CAPE, Confidence, Irrational Exuberance, Manager Magazin, Shiller, Stocks, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 24. August 2012
The reason for stock market skittishness might be more mundane than high-frequency trading and computer algorithms gone amuck.
FORTUNE — The TABB Group, a research firm that specializes in stock trading and technology, is out with what appears to be a concerning stat: Just 2% of professional investors completely trust the market.
It’s become a common line to say that Knight Capital’s recent trading glitch, the bungled Facebook IPO and the 2010 Flash Crash is either adding to or the root cause of individuals’ skittishness with the market. As evidence, people point to the fact that money has continued to come out of stock funds even as the market has rallied. Now TABB is saying it’s not just individuals but pros who are growing nervous. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Confidence, Fortune, Stocks, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 17. Mai 2012
Source: The Economist
SO MUCH of modern finance is a confidence game. Banks borrow short and lend long. A perfectly solvent bank can therefore go bust if depositors panic and rush to pull money out. This is why modern financial systems have backstops, despite the moral hazard cost; in their absence, the economy is at risk of irrational destruction.
European leaders have been playing their game with Greece like confidence doesn’t matter. They have behaved as if an adjustment is necessary, and the only question at issue is which side will bear its costs. But confidence matters. As time has gone on, markets have become less sure of the talk that Greece would never be allowed to leave the euro area. The euro zone’s chief leaders have been more concerned about moral hazard than this confidence dynamic. We know what happens in such cases; the lack of confidence destroys the system. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Confidence, Contagion, ECB, Economist, Euro, Europe, Finanzkrise, Greece, Grexit, IMF | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 28. April 2012
Source: PAUL KRUGMAN, NYT
This was the month the confidence fairy died.
For the past two years most policy makers in Europe and many politicians and pundits in America have been in thrall to a destructive economic doctrine. According to this doctrine, governments should respond to a severely depressed economy not the way the textbooks say they should — by spending more to offset falling private demand — but with fiscal austerity, slashing spending in an effort to balance their budgets.
Critics warned from the beginning that austerity in the face of depression would only make that depression worse. But the “austerians” insisted that the reverse would happen. Why? Confidence!
“Confidence-inspiring policies will foster and not hamper economic recovery,” declared Jean-Claude Trichet, the former president of the European Central Bank — a claim echoed by Republicans in Congress here. Or as I put it way back when, the idea was that the confidence fairy would come in and reward policy makers for their fiscal virtue. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: austerity, Confidence, Europe, Finanzkrise, Krugman, NYT, Recession | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 31. Januar 2012
Source: The Wall Street Journal
LONDON—Consumers and service providers in the euro zone head into February more upbeat about their prospects, a development that suggests the currency area’s economy may be stabilizing.
The European Commission Monday said the overall measure of business and consumer confidence in the 17 countries that share the euro—-known as the Economic Sentiment Indicator—rose to 93.4 in January from 92.8 in December. However, that outcome was weaker than the 93.6 forecast by economists and there was significant divergence between countries.
Although official figures will only be released on Feb. 15, many economists believe the euro-zone economy contracted in the fourth quarter of 2011.
But recent evidence suggests that the economy may have stabilized at the start of the year, and the confidence survey is consistent with that view.
Together with other surveys, it may help persuade the European Central Bank to leave its monetary policy unchanged when its governing council meets next month.
The survey came as new data indicated Germany’s consumer price inflation slowed in January on the year according to a preliminary reading, in line with expectations, leaving intact forecasts that the slowdown in euro-zone inflation will continue. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Confidence, Euro, Europe, Inflation, Italy, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 29. März 2011
Grant Williams, 29-3
“O, swear not by the moon, the fickle moon, the inconstant moon, that monthly changes in her circle orb, Lest that thy love prove likewise variable.”– william shakespeare
Doyle Lonnegan: “Your boss is quite a card player, Mr. Kelly; how does he do it?”Johnny Hooker: “He cheats.”– The Sting
“In today’s regulatory environment, it’s virtually impossible to violate rules … but it’s impossible for a violation to go undetected, certainly not for a considerable period of time”– Bernard Madoff Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Confidence, Finanzkrise, Mauldin | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 17. Dezember 2010
Source: The Economist
“HOPE” is one of the most overused words in public life, up there with “change”. Yet it matters enormously. Politicians pay close attention to right-track/wrong-track indicators. Confidence determines whether consumers spend, and so whether companies invest. The “power of positive thinking”, as Norman Vincent Peale pointed out, is enormous.
For the past 400 years the West has enjoyed a comparative advantage over the rest of the world when it comes to optimism. Western intellectuals dreamed up the ideas of enlightenment and progress, and Western men of affairs harnessed technology to impose their will on the rest of the world. The Founding Fathers of the United States, who firmly believed that the country they created would be better than any that had come before, offered citizens not just life and liberty but also the pursuit of happiness.
Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Confidence, Economist, Europe, Finanzkrise, Globalization, Hope, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 25. November 2009
On November 24, 2009, the economic research institute Ifo announced a further improvement in German business confidence. According to the survey, which is based on 7,000 executives, business confidence reached a 15-month high of 93.9 in November 2009. Despite eight consecutive increases since April 2009, the index is still below its long-term average of 96 points, and the rate of increase has been slowing down in the recent months. While the survey results point to economic expansion in the second half of 2009, the question remains how sustainable the upswing will prove thereafter.
Posted in Artikel | Getaggt mit: Confidence, Europe, Finanzkrise, Germany, RGE Monitor, Roubini | Leave a Comment »