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Posts Tagged ‘Cold War’

Who Will Win the Twenty-First Century?

Posted by hkarner - 31. Juli 2019

Joschka Fischer was German Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor from 1998-2005, a term marked by Germany’s strong support for NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999, followed by its opposition to the war in Iraq. Fischer entered electoral politics after participating in the anti-establishment protests of the 1960s and 1970s, and played a key role in founding Germany’s Green Party, which he led for almost two decades.

For years, Europeans were lulled into thinking that the peace and prosperity of the immediate post-Cold War period would be self-sustaining. But, two decades into the twenty-first century, it is clear that the Old Continent miscalculated and now must catch up to the digital revolution. 

BERLIN – The first two decades of the twenty-first century are beginning to cast a long shadow over the Western world. We have come a long way since the turn of the century, when people everywhere, but particularly in Europe, indulgently embraced the “end of history.” 

According to that illusory notion, the West’s victory in the Cold War – the last of the three great wars of the twentieth century – had given rise to a global order for which there could be no alternatives. Thenceforth, it was thought, world history would march steadily toward the universalization of Western-style democracy and the market economy.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Global Consequences of a Sino-American Cold War

Posted by hkarner - 21. Mai 2019

Date: 20-05-2019
Source: by Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

What started as a trade war between the United States and China is quickly escalating into a death match for global economic, technological, and military dominance. If the two countries‘ leaders cannot manage the defining relationship of the twenty-first century responsibly, the entire world will bear the costs of their failure.

NEW YORK – A few years ago, as part of a Western delegation to China, I met President Xi Jinping in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People. When addressing us, Xi argued that China’s rise would be peaceful, and that other countries – namely, the United States – need not worry about the “Thucydides Trap,” so named for the Greek historian who chronicled how Sparta’s fear of a rising Athens made war between the two inevitable. In his 2017 book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, Harvard University’s Graham Allison examines 16 earlier rivalries between an emerging and an established power, and finds that 12 of them led to war. No doubt, Xi wanted us to focus on the remaining four. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How to Win a Cold War With Beijing

Posted by hkarner - 26. Oktober 2018

Date: 26-10-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Seth Cropsey

Unlike with the Soviets, the key is controlling the seas—so bolster the Navy and work with allies.

How to Win a Cold War With Beijing

Vice President Mike Pence announced a turning point in Washington’s relations with Beijing. In a speech Oct. 4 at the Hudson Institute, he acknowledged that four decades of attempts by the U.S. to make China a “stakeholder” in global norms and institutions had failed. The White House now promises to shift relations accordingly.

Mr. Pence didn’t offer specifics, but there’s no shortage of steps the administration could take to assert U.S. interests against China’s hegemonic goals. It should recommit to defending American allies in East Asia and improving U.S. forces’ ability to deter Chinese expansion. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Mike Pence Announces Cold War II

Posted by hkarner - 10. Oktober 2018

Date: 09-10-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Walter Russell Mead

The administration is orchestrating a far-reaching campaign against China.

Did Cold War II break out last week while no one was watching? As the Kavanaugh confirmation battle raged, many Americans missed what looks like the biggest shift in U.S.-China relations since Henry Kissinger’s 1971 visit to Beijing.

The Trump administration’s China policy swam into view, and it’s a humdinger. Vice President Mike Pence gave a guide to the approach in a speech last week at the Hudson Institute (where I am a fellow). Denouncing what he called China’s “whole of government” approach to its rivalry with the U.S., Mr. Pence vowed the Trump administration will respond in kind. He denounced China’s suppression of the Tibetans and Uighurs, its “Made in China 2025” plan for tech dominance, and its “debt diplomacy” through the Belt and Road initiative. The speech sounded like something Ronald Reagan could have delivered against the Soviet Union: Mr. Xi, tear down this wall! Mr. Pence also detailed an integrated, cross-government strategy to counter what the administration considers Chinese military, economic, political and ideological aggression. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China verliert den neuen Kalten Krieg

Posted by hkarner - 7. September 2018

Minxin Pei

Minxin Pei is a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and the author of China’s Crony Capitalism.

HONGKONG – Als 1991 die Sowjetunion zerfiel, wollte die Kommunistische Partei Chinas (KPC) die Gründe dafür herausfinden. Dies wurde zu einer Obsession. Die Thinktanks der Regierung, die sich mit diesem Thema beschäftigten, gaben Michail Gorbatschow einen Großteil der Schuld. Als Reformer sei er einfach nicht rücksichtslos genug gewesen, um die Sowjetunion zusammen zu halten. Aber die chinesische Führung betonte auch andere wichtige Faktoren, auf die sie aber heute selbst nicht zu achten scheint.

Sicherlich hat sich die KPC die erste große Lektion zu Herzen genommen: Entscheidend für politische Legitimität ist eine starke Wirtschaftsleistung. Und dass sich die Partei in den letzten Jahrzehnten auf die Steigerung des BIP-Wachstums konzentrierte, hat zu einem „Wirtschaftswunder“ geführt. Das nominale Pro-Kopf-Einkommen stieg von 333 Dollar im Jahr 1991 auf 7329 Dollar im letzten Jahr. Dies ist der bei weitem wichtigste Grund dafür, warum sich die KPC an der Macht halten konnte.

Aber die Sowjetpolitiker haben nicht nur die Wirtschaft vernachlässigt, sondern auch noch andere Fehler gemacht. Sie gerieten in ein teures Wettrüsten mit den Vereinigten Staaten, das sie nicht gewinnen konnten. Und sie überschätzten ihre imperialen Möglichkeiten, indem sie Geld und Ressourcen an Regimes verteilten, die wenig strategischen Wert besaßen und für ihr chronisches wirtschaftliches Missmanagement bekannt waren. Und heute, wo China in einen neuen „Kalten Krieg“ gegen die USA zieht, riskiert die KPC, dieselben katastrophalen Fehler zu wiederholen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Has a New Cold War Really Begun?

Posted by hkarner - 28. März 2018

Date: 27-03-2018
Source: Foreign Affairs By Odd Arne Westad

Why the Term Shouldn’t Apply to Today’s Great-Power Tensions

For about four years now, since Russia’s occupation of Crimea and China’s launch of the Belt and Road Initiative, there has been much speculation about whether another Cold War between East and West is coming. In the last month alone, headlines have proclaimed that “The New Cold War Is Here,” heralded “Putin’s New Cold War,” and warned that “Trump Is Preparing for a New Cold War.” But are we really returning to the past? Contemporary politics is full of false analogies, and the return of the Cold War seems to be one of them.

At its peak, the Cold War was a global system of countries centered on the United States and the Soviet Union. It did not determine everything that was going on in the world of international affairs, but it influenced most things. At its core was an ideological contest between capitalism and socialism that had been going on throughout the twentieth century, with each side fervently dedicated to its system of economics and governance. It was a bipolar system of total victory or total defeat, in which neither of the main protagonists could envisage a lasting compromise with the other. The Cold War was intense, categorical, and highly dangerous: strategic nuclear weapons systems were intended to destroy the superpower opponent, even at a cost of devastating half the world. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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We need to relearn the arts of war and grand strategy

Posted by hkarner - 28. September 2015

Date: 27-09-2015Ferguson
Source: FT: Niall Ferguson

West blew its peace dividend in 20-year party of consumption and speculation, says Niall Ferguson

The cold war has been called the “long peace”. In fact, the two decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union look a lot more peaceful. Indeed, it might make more sense to call 1991-2010 the short peace. It was an era that inspired some to speculate that the “better angels of our nature” might be gaining the upper hand. The bad news is that this short peace appears to be over.

To study the 1970s is to be reminded just how hot the cold war actually was. More than 2m battle deaths resulted from state-based armed conflict in the 1970s, compared with about 270,000 in the 2000s. For the US, Vietnam was a vastly more lethal war than Iraq (47,424 US combat deaths compared with 3,527).
Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A New Cold War Order?

Posted by hkarner - 7. Januar 2015

Date: 06-01-2015Gorbachev CC
Source: Project Syndicate

MIKHAIL GORBACHEV

Mikhail Gorbachev was the last head of state of the Soviet Union, and helped to bring about a peaceful end to the Cold War, for which he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1990. He has since remained active in global and humanitarian affairs, most notably through his leadership of the Gorbachev Foundation. He is also the founder of the Geneva-based Green Cross International, an independent nongovernmental organization that addresses security, poverty, and environmental degradation.

MOSCOW – As 2014 comes to a close, it is clear that the European and international political structures that have been in place since 1989 have failed the test of time. Indeed, the world has not witnessed such a tense and fraught environment since the Cold War’s end, with bloodshed in Europe and the Middle East coming against the backdrop of a breakdown in dialogue between major powers. The world, it appears, is on the brink of Cold War II. Some even say that it has already begun. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Nobelpreisträger befürchten neuen Kalten Krieg

Posted by hkarner - 19. August 2014

Date: 19-08-2014
Source: Die Welt

Die Elite der internationalen Wirtschaftsforschung glaubt, dass der Ukraine-Konflikt den ökonomischen Niedergang Europas beschleunigen könnte. Im Expansionsdrang Putins sieht sie das Hauptproblem.

Die klügsten Köpfe der Ökonomie warnen vor den Folgen eines neuen Kalten Krieges. Das ohnehin wirtschaftlich angeschlagene Europa würde dann in einer tiefen Rezession versinken.

Nicht nur die räumliche Nähe und die ökonomische Verflechtung mit Russland machen die Alte Welt anfällig für einen Niedergang. Auch eine zaudernde Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) lässt die Euro-Zone gegenüber der Weltmacht Amerika ins Hintertreffen geraten.

Das ist das Ergebnis einer Umfrage der „Welt“ unter 17 Wirtschaftsnobelpreisträgern, die in dieser Woche in Lindau am Bodensee über drängende ökonomische Probleme diskutieren.

Erstmals kommt Merkel zum Treffen der Nobelpreisträger
DAXDas mittlerweile fünfte Nobelpreisträger-Treffen kommt zu einem kritischen Zeitpunkt: Die Wirtschaftskrise von 2008 ist noch nicht vollständig aus der Welt, gleichzeitig gab es seit dem Fall der Berliner Mauer vor 25 Jahren noch nie so viele gravierende politische Konflikte und Umbrüche, die den Frieden, den weltweiten Handel und Wohlstand bedrohen.

Lindau gilt als eine Art Gipfeltreffen der Ökonomenzunft, ähnlich dem prominenten Weltwirtschaftsgipfel in Davos. Welche Bedeutung das Treffen in diesem Jahr hat, zeigt sich auch an der Tatsache, dass Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel (CDU) erstmals in Lindau eine Grundsatzrede halten wird. Vor zehn Jahren fand das erste Treffen dieser Art statt, und noch nie war die Erwartung höher.

US-Ökonom Edmund S. Phelps glaubt, dass sich der Ukraine-Konflikt zu einem neuen Kalten Krieg auswachsen könnte

„Eine offene Aggression von Russland in der Ostukraine würde einen dunklen Schatten auf Europa werfen: Investitionen gehen zurück, Jobs verloren, das Wachstum bricht weg“, warnt Edmund Phelps von der New Yorker Columbia-Universität.

Top-Ökonom sieht in der Person Putin das Hauptproblem Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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