Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘china’

The superpower split

Posted by hkarner - 4. Januar 2020

Date: 02‑01‑2020

Source: The Economist

Don’t be fooled by the trade deal between America and China

The planet’s biggest break‑up is under way

On january 15th, after three years of a bitter trade war, America and China are due to sign a “phase one” deal that trims tariffs and obliges China to buy more from American farmers. Don’t be fooled. This modest accord cannot disguise how the world’s most important relationship is at its most perilous juncture since before Richard Nixon and Mao Zedong re‑established links five decades ago. The threat to the West from China’s high‑tech authoritarianism has become all too clear. Everything from its pioneering artificial‑intelligence firms to its gulags in Xinjiang spread alarm across the world.

Just as visible is America’s incoherent response, which veers between demanding that the Chinese government buy Iowan soyabeans and insisting it must abandon its state‑led economic model. The two sides used to think they could both thrive; today each has vision of success in which the other lot falls behind. A partial dismantling of their bonds is under way. In the 2020s the world will discover just how far this decoupling will go, how much it will cost and whether, as it confronts China, America will be tempted to compromise its own values. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Nobelpreisträger im Interview – Paul Krugman: „Europa sieht aus wie Japan vor 20 Jahren“

Posted by hkarner - 3. Januar 2020

Der Star-Ökonom spricht über die fragile Weltwirtschaft, die Krise des Kapitalismus und die ökonomischen und politischen Risiken, sollte Trump wiedergewählt werden.

Astrid Dörner Dr. Jens Münchrath, Handelsblatt.de

02.01.2020 – 04:00 Uhr

Paul Krugman

Der US-Ökonom schreibt eine wöchentliche Kolumne für die „New York Times“.

US-Ökonom Paul Krugman rechnet im Handelsblatt-Interview mit der Präsidentschaft Donald Trumps ab. „Seine Handelskriege schaden nicht nur der Weltwirtschaft, sondern zunehmend auch der heimischen Wirtschaft“, warnte Krugman. An eine nachhaltige Annäherung im amerikanisch-chinesischen Handelskonflikt glaubt der Nobelpreisträger nicht, obwohl Trump am Dienstag angekündigt hatte, das erste Teilabkommen mit China am 15. Januar zu unterschreiben: „Wenn überhaupt, dann lässt sich in Peking nur mithilfe einer großen Koalition unter Einschluss der Europäer etwas erreichen.“ Auch Ifo-Chef Clemens Fuest ist skeptisch: „Das Abkommen hat Erwartungen geweckt, die der Vertrag kaum erfüllen kann.“

Krugman gilt als Enfant terrible unter den US-Ökonomen. Als Wissenschaftler genießt er auch bei seinen Kritikern höchsten Respekt. Als Publizist ist er gefürchtet, weil er vor Polemik, die in akademischen Kreisen ansonsten eher unüblich ist, nicht zurückschreckt.

Insgesamt hält Krugman die Wirtschaftspolitik des Präsidenten für völlig verfehlt: „Alles, was Trump bezweckt hat, ist nicht eingetroffen. Im Gegenteil: Die Investitionen der Unternehmen sinken, trotz Steuersenkungen. Die Industrieproduktion schrumpft, trotz all der Strafzölle, die sie schützen sollen“, sagte Krugman.

Sollte Trump wie angedroht im Frühjahr Strafzölle auf EU-Autoimporte in Höhe von 25 Prozent erheben, könnte Europa in eine Rezession abrutschen, warnte Krugman. Europa sehe ohnehin ökonomisch „so schwach aus wie Japan vor 20 Jahren“. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Make Europe Relevant Again

Posted by hkarner - 29. Dezember 2019

Dec 27, 2019 Sigmar Gabriel , Christoph Bornschein, Project Syndicate

Sigmar Gabriel is a former vice chancellor and foreign minister of Germany.

Christoph Bornschein is CEO of TLGG.

The competition between the US and China for technological supremacy has revealed Europe’s fundamental weakness in the twenty-first century. A community of nation-states built around a shared project to ensure regional peace and prosperity is now surrendering its economic power and autonomy to foreign firms.

BERLIN – It is increasingly clear that the European Union was not built to be a global actor. The EU is a strictly European idea, designed to bring peace and prosperity to a region ravaged by centuries of incessant war. It was meant to mind its own business, leaving matters of global import to the two permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, Britain and France.

Under this arrangement, the EU achieved stability for its neighborhood. While other countries have pursued global political and economic strategies, we Europeans have relied on our shared history, democratic traditions, and moral compass in the service of fitful regional integration. But these strengths will not ensure Europe’s continued relevance. Economic change and technological advances (online platforms, artificial intelligence, automation, data monopolies, zero-marginal-cost distribution) are reshaping the global economy, upending longstanding power structures, and fueling political disruption within many countries.This is where Europe’s true weakness is exposed. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump Will Make China Great Again

Posted by hkarner - 23. Dezember 2019

Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. His website is NourielRoubini.com.

Despite the latest Sino-American „skinny deal“ to ease tensions over trade, technology, and other issues, it is now clear that the world’s two largest economies have entered a new era of sustained competition. How the relationship will evolve depends greatly on America’s political leadership – which does not bode well.

NEW YORK – Financial markets were cheered recently by the news that the United States and China have reached a “phase one” deal to prevent further escalation of their bilateral trade war. But there is actually very little to cheer about. In exchange for China’s tentative commitment to buy more US agricultural (and some other) goods, and modest concessions on intellectual-property rights and the renminbi, the US agreed to withhold tariffs on another $160 billion worth of Chinese exports, and to roll back some of the tariffs introduced on September 1.

Despite the latest Sino-American „skinny deal“ to ease tensions over trade, technology, and other issues, it is now clear that the world’s two largest economies have entered a new era of sustained competition. How the relationship will evolve depends greatly on America’s political leadership – which does not bode well. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why the US‑China Trade War Could Re‑escalate

Posted by hkarner - 22. Dezember 2019

Date: 21‑12‑2019

Source: Project Syndicate by Anne O. Krueger

Anne O. Krueger, a former World Bank chief economist and former first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, is Senior Research Professor of International Economics at the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Development, Stanford University. 

The „phase one“ trade deal between the United States and China addresses only some of the US government’s concerns, and its remaining demands will be much harder to resolve. But while both America and China have an interest in the success of the open multilateral global trading system, current US policy is undermining that goal.

WASHINGTON, DC – After nearly 18 months of tit‑for‑tat tariff increases, the United States and China have reached a “phase one” agreement to start de‑escalating their trade war. As part of the deal, US President Donald Trump canceled further tariff increases on Chinese goods that had been scheduled to take effect on December 15, and halved a 15% tariff on $120 billion worth of imports from China. As for China, it shelved its planned retaliatory measures and committed to import some $50 billion worth of US agricultural products in each of the next two years. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Die Bahn kommt – in China wirklich

Posted by hkarner - 15. Dezember 2019

In Rekordzeit hat China sein Schnellzugnetz ausgebaut, heute verfügt das Land über mehr Gleiskilometer als der Rest der Welt zusammen. Viele Menschen steigen vom Flugzeug um. Noch ist die CO2-Ersparnis gering, doch das soll sich ändern.

Von Georg Fahrion, Peking, Spiegel.de

An einem Dezembertag schließen sich auf dem Shanghaier Bahnhof um 11.59 Uhr die Zugtüren, um Punkt zwölf rollt der G12 nach Peking los. In nur viereinhalb Stunden wird der Zug 1318 Kilometer zurücklegen, eine Distanz wie von der Ostsee zum Mittelmeer. Während der Fahrt reißt das WLAN kein einziges Mal ab.

Bequeme Sitze, großzügige Beinfreiheit, und acht Minuten nach Abfahrt beginnt der Bordservice: Eine Stewardess überreicht jedem Fahrgast ein Getränk, Cracker und Wasabi-Erbsen. Wenig später feudelt eine Frau in schwarzer Dienstmädchenuniform den tadellos sauberen Boden im Großraumwaggon. Um 12.22 Uhr zeigt ein Display an, dass die Höchstgeschwindigkeit erreicht ist: 339 km/h. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Die nächste Dekade stellt die Weltwirtschaft auf den Kopf

Posted by hkarner - 10. Dezember 2019

Date: 09‑12‑2019

Source: Die Welt Von Frank Stocker

Asia, China, Hong Kong, A man wearing a back pack, stands on a high elevated rocky viewpoint on Victoria Peak, overlooking the Hong Kong skyline at dawn, looking out over the illuminated city as the night transforms into early in the morning.

In der nächsten Dekade wird sich die Rangliste der wichtigsten Volkswirtschaften fundamental verändern. Die Bundesrepublik riskiert, zwischen zwei Fronten zu geraten. Zwar gäbe es einen Ausweg, doch Experten zweifeln an Deutschlands Fähigkeiten.

Nur noch wenige Wochen, dann beginnt ein neues Jahrzehnt. Die Zwanziger des letzten Jahrzehnts waren eine Zeit des Aufschwungs und wurden daher später als „die Goldenen Zwanziger“ bezeichnet. Zugleich begann damals aber auch der Übergang des globalen wirtschaftlichen Machtzentrums vom britischen Empire auf die USA.

New York etablierte sich als zweiter wichtiger Finanzplatz, von dem dann am Ende des Jahrzehnts die Schockwellen des großen Börsencrashs mit all seinen Folgen ausgingen. Ob die Zwanziger auch diesmal golden werden, ist ungewiss. Sicher ist jedoch, dass sich in der kommenden Dekade erneut ein Führungswechsel in der Weltwirtschaft vollziehen wird.

China wird die USA überholen, und die Konkurrenz der beiden Mächte wird die Welt vor eine Zerreißprobe stellen. Deutschland wird darunter besonders leiden. Zugleich werden weitere Machtzentren in Ländern entstehen, die bisher kaum jemand im Auge hat.

Seit Jahrzehnten sind die USA die größte Volkswirtschaft der Erde, im vergangenen Jahr betrug die Wirtschaftsleistung rund 20,5 Billionen Dollar, Chinas Bruttoinlandsprodukt lag bei rund zwei Dritteln davon. Allerdings: Vor zehn Jahren umfasste Chinas Wirtschaftskraft weniger als ein Drittel jener der USA, das Reich der Mitte wächst wesentlich schneller.

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Can Hong Kong Avoid Tragedy?

Posted by hkarner - 28. November 2019

Andrew Sheng, Distinguished Fellow of the Asia Global Institute at the University of Hong Kong and a member of the UNEP Advisory Council on Sustainable Finance, is a former chairman of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. His latest book is From Asian to Global Financial Crisis.

Xiao Geng, President of the Hong Kong Institution for International Finance, is a professor and Director of the Research Institute of Maritime Silk-Road at Peking University HSBC Business School.

To protect their own futures, the people of Hong Kong must reflect carefully on the need to end violent protests and work together to address genuine grievances. The alternative is not some fantasy of an independent and thriving Hong Kong. It is a devastated economy, a divided society, and a lost generation.

HONG KONG – Nearly six months after they began, the protests in our city have reached fever pitch. On one particularly devastating day earlier this month, police fired more than 1,500 rounds of tear gas, a police officer shot a demonstrator at point-blank range while being attacked, and protesters immolated a man who disagreed with them. More than 4,000 people have been arrested, infrastructure has been destroyed, and the economy has sunk into recession. And for what?

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China Is Europe’s Problem Too

Posted by hkarner - 27. November 2019

Date: 26-11-2019

Source: The Wall Street Journal By Walter Russell Mead

Only the trans-Atlantic alliance can counter Beijing’s moves in the Pacific.

What will the trans-Atlantic alliance look like in a world focused on the Indo-Pacific? That, more than President Trump’s unpredictable diplomacy, is the question that haunts Europe.

During the Cold War, protecting Europe from Soviet aggression was Washington’s highest foreign-policy priority. That didn’t only mean that the U.S. put troops in Europe. Washington took European opinions seriously, engaged with Europeans, cut deals with them and was willing to make concessions to preserve alliance unity.

Clearly, some of that has changed. The next U.S. president may not share Mr. Trump’s undiplomatic instincts or his affinity for Brexiteers such as Nigel Farage and anti-Brussels figures like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. But will he or she engage in the ritualistic ceremonies of diplomatic consultation with the various chancellors, presidents, commissioners and high representatives that Europeans so love? When America’s most urgent foreign policy worries involve smoothing over Japanese-Korean spats or facing down China in the Taiwan Strait, just how relevant will Europe be? When Europe calls Washington, will anybody answer the phone? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The High Stakes of the Coming Digital Currency War Nov 11, 2019 Kenneth Rogoff

Posted by hkarner - 12. November 2019

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. He is co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly and author of The Curse of Cash.

Just as technology has disrupted media, politics, and business, it is on the verge of disrupting America’s ability to leverage faith in its currency to pursue its broader national interests. The real challenge for the United States isn’t Facebook’s proposed Libra; it’s government-backed digital currencies like the one planned by China.

SOUTH BEND – Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg was at least half right when he recently told the United States Congress that there is no US monopoly on regulation of next-generation payments technology. You may not like Facebook’s proposed Libra (pseudo) cryptocurrency, Zuckerberg implied, but a state-run Chinese digital currency with global ambitions is perhaps just a few months away, and you will probably like that even less.

Perhaps Zuckerberg went too far when he suggested that the imminent rise of a Chinese digital currency could undermine overall dollar dominance of global trade and finance – at least the large part that is legal, taxed, and regulated. In fact, US regulators have vast power not only over domestic entities but also over any financial firms that need access to dollar markets, as Europe recently learned to its dismay when the US forced European banks to comply with severe restrictions on doing business with Iran.America’s deep and liquid markets, its strong institutions, and the rule of law will trump Chinese efforts to achieve currency dominance for a long time to come. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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