Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Posts Tagged ‘CEPR’

Subsidiarity: The forgotten concept at the core of Europe’s existential crisis

Posted by hkarner - 19. April 2017

Jean-Pierre Danthine 12 April 2017, vox.eu

Associate member and President, PSE; CEPR Research Fellow; Emeritus Professor of Economics and Finance of the University of Lausanne

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New ICMB/CEPR Report: Bail-ins and Bank Resolution in Europe

Posted by hkarner - 23. März 2017

Thomas Philippon, Aude Salord

Professor of Finance, Stern School of Business, NYU and CEPR Research Affiliate

Droit & Croissance

 

22 March 2017, voxeu

Nine years since the Global Crisis of 2008 and two and a half years after the launch the banking union in November 2014, some European countries are still struggling with significant banking problems. The total amount of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the EU is around €1 trillion and its allocation is far from equal. The rates of non-performance range from less than 5% in strong countries to 16% in Italy, 20% in Portugal, and 45% in Greece and Cyprus (EBA 2016). More than a third of EU countries have NPL ratios above 10%. These non-performing legacy assets present a challenge for the newly created banking union.

This column introduces the 4th Special Report in the Geneva Reports on the World Economy series. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Brace yourself: the most disruptive phase of globalization is just beginning

Posted by hkarner - 20. Dezember 2016

Date: 19-12-2016
Source: http://qz.com/

robot-bartender-ccRobot bartender

To properly understand globalization, you need to start 200,000 years ago.
Richard Baldwin skillfully takes on this daunting task in a new book, starting all the way back with the hunter-gatherers. For too long, he says, traditional analysis of trade has been too narrow, he argues.

The economist, who is a professor at the Graduate Institute in Geneva and president of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) in London, has been researching globalization and trade for 30 years. As anti-globalization forces now sweep across the world, The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalization (Harvard University Press) is well timed.

Baldwin argues that globalization takes shape in three distinct stages: the ability to move goods, then ideas, and finally people. Since the early 19th century, the cost of the first two has fallen dramatically, spurring the surge in international trade that is now a feature of the modern global economy.

The standard line from politicians in recent times is that everyone wins from globalization. But the backlash from low-skilled workers who lost their jobs to cheaper labor abroad has forced a change in tone.

Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, gave a candid speech on globalization in northwest England this week, where unemployment is among the highest in the country. He said: Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Rebooting the Eurozone: Step 1 – Agreeing a Crisis narrative

Posted by hkarner - 20. November 2015

Rebooting Consensus Authors 20 November 2015

By Richard Baldwin, Thorsten Beck, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Olivier Blanchard, Giancarlo Corsetti, Paul de Grauwe, Wouter den Haan, Francesco Giavazzi, Daniel Gros, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Stefano Micossi, Elias Papaioannou, Paolo Pesenti, Christopher Pissarides, Guido Tabellini and Beatrice Weder di Mauro.

The Eurozone Crisis broke out in May 2010; it is a long way from finished. Although some positive signs have emerged recently, EZ growth and unemployment are miserable and expected to remain miserable for years.

  • A large slice of Europe’s youth have been or will be jobless during the critical, formative years of their working lives;
  • The economic malaise is feeding extremist views and nationalistic tendencies just when Europe needs to pull together to deal with challenges ranging from the migration crush to possible new financial shocks.

Worse yet, many of the fragilities and imbalances that primed the monetary union for this crisis are still present.

  • Many of Europe’s banks face problems of non-performing loans;
  • Many are still heavily invested in their own nation’s public debt – a tie that means problems with banks threaten the solvency of the government and vice versa;
  • Borrowers across the Continent are vulnerable to the inevitable normalisation of interest rates that have been near-zero for years. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Rebooting the Eurozone: Step 1 – Agreeing a Crisis narrative

Posted by hkarner - 19. November 2015

CEPR 85

Thu, 11/19/2015, voxeu

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A new CEPR Report: A New Start for the Eurozone: Dealing with Debt

Posted by hkarner - 21. April 2015

The Editors 15 April 2015, voxeu

For a while, the storm seemed to have passed and the Eurozone entered a welcome tranquil period. Now, Greece has once again triggered the alarm and, while the financial and economic resilience of many member countries has improved, their political resilience has not. Greece is special in many ways and will have to be dealt with in a different way from the other member countries, but the renewed turbulence it has caused once again has highlighted that the construction of the monetary union remains incomplete.

In the inaugural report in CEPR’s new Monitoring the Eurozone series (Corsetti et al. 2015), the authors1 call for a reconsideration of the Eurozone’s architecture. The report is available to download here. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Internationale Schulden auf Rekordstand

Posted by hkarner - 1. Oktober 2014

Simon Moser, derstandard.at, 30. September 2014, 17:34

Am stärksten nehmen Schulden von Firmen und Haushalten in Schwellenländern zu, eine neue Finanzkrise droht

Wien – Auch wenn manche Passagiere schon wieder festen Boden unter den Füßen spüren: Das weltweite Schuldenkarussell dreht sich munter weiter. Während die Welt noch mit den Folgen der aktuellen Schuldenkrise kämpft, könnte die nächste schon vor der Tür stehen. Das geht aus dem jährlichen Geneva Report hervor, der vom Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) veröffentlicht wird. Die Autoren, darunter ehemalige leitende Ökonomen mehrerer Zentralbanken, konstatieren: „Die Welt hat noch immer nicht mit der Entschuldung begonnen.“

Ganz im Gegenteil: Die globalen Verbindlichkeiten aller Haushalte, Unternehmen und Staaten sind auf einem Rekordhoch und nehmen weiter rasant zu. Zwischen 2008 und 2013 stieg der weltweite Verschuldungsgrad von 180 Prozent der globalen Wirtschaftsleistung auf 215 Prozent an. Und das sind allein die Schulden von Staaten und Privathaushalten. Nicht eingerechnet sind die Verbindlichkeiten im Finanzsektor, weil hier für Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländer keine verlässlichen Daten vorliegen.

Waren vor Ausbruch der Finanzkrise noch die Industrienationen die treibende Kraft hinter der konstanten Kreditausdehnung, so sind es nun die Schwellenländer. Laut den Autoren könnten diese Regionen die Auslöser für die nächste globale Schuldenkrise sein. Zur Bedienung der steigenden Kreditlast braucht es ständig wachsende Profite. Läuft die Konjunktur nicht mehr rund, könnte das Kartenhaus zusammenbrechen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Deleveraging, What Deleveraging? The 16th Geneva Report on the World Economy

Posted by hkarner - 30. September 2014

Luigi Buttiglione, Philip Lane, Lucrezia Reichlin, Vincent Reinhart 29 September 2014, voxeu

The Lehman Brothers bankruptcy tipped the world into its worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. The recovery has been slow and weak – even in those economies such as the US that emerged first from the acute phase of the Global Crisis. Emerging markets did better during the Crisis, but have recently slowed down. Some, such as China, are seeing marked increases in leverage that raise the odds that they will experience home-grown crises in the future.

To understand the length and depth of the Crisis – as well as the weak recovery – it is essential to analyse the role of debt dynamics.1 In the 16th Geneva Report on the World Economy, we conduct a deep dive into the details of global debt dynamics over the past decade. This includes consistent comparisons across regions and sectors and an emphasis on the interaction of debt and income. We provide a multi-dimensional perspective on leverage for both advanced and emerging economies. Our comprehensive approach includes both public and private debt, with the latter broken down on sectoral lines (households, non-financial corporates, financial sector). Moreover, we take into account national adding-up constraints by relating sectoral debt levels to the overall international investment position. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The AQR and stress testing the European banking system

Posted by hkarner - 19. März 2014

Viral Acharya interviewed by Viv Davies, 14 Mar 2014, voxeuViral Acharya

Professor of Finance, Stern School of Business, New York University and Director of the CEPR Financial Economics Programme

Viral Acharya talks to Viv Davies about his recent work with Sascha Steffen that, using publicly available data and a series of shortfall measures, estimates the capital shortfalls of EZ banks that will be stress-tested under the proposed Asset Quality Review. They also discuss the difference in accounting rules between US and EZ banks and the future potential for banking union in the Eurozone. The interview was recorded by phone on 25 February 2014.

Listen http://www.voxeu.org/popup/10419

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