Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Cash’

Rich countries must start planning for a cashless future

Posted by hkarner - 4. August 2019

Date: 03-08-2019
Source: The Economist

Going digital will bring vast rewards but societies are ill-equipped to deal with the side-effects

For the past 3,000 years, when people thought of money they thought of cash. From buying food to settling bar tabs, day-to-day dealings involved creased paper or clinking bits of metal. Over the past decade, however, digital payments have taken off—tapping your plastic on a terminal or swiping a smartphone has become normal. Now this revolution is about to turn cash into an endangered species in some rich economies. That will make the economy more efficient—but it also poses new problems that could hold the transition hostage.

Countries are eliminating cash at varying speeds. But the direction of travel is clear, and in some cases the journey is nearly complete. In Sweden the number of retail cash transactions per person has fallen by 80% in the past ten years. Cash accounts for just 6% of purchases by value in Norway. Britain is probably four or six years behind the Nordic countries. America is perhaps a decade behind. Outside the rich world, cash is still king. But even there its dominance is being eroded. In China digital payments rose from 4% of all payments in 2012 to 34% in 2017.

Cash is dying out because of two forces. One is demand—younger consumers want payment systems that plug seamlessly into their digital lives. But equally important is that suppliers such as banks and tech firms (in developed markets) and telecoms companies (in emerging ones) are developing fast, easy-to-use payment technologies from which they can pull data and pocket fees. There is a high cost to running the infrastructure behind the cash economy—atms, vans carrying notes, tellers who accept coins. Most financial firms are keen to abandon it, or deter old-fashioned customers with hefty fees. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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IWF: Bargeldverbot ab 2020

Posted by hkarner - 1. April 2019

Weil Zinsen immer mehr ins Minus rutschen will der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) in den größten Währungsräumen (Dollar, Euro, Yen) das Bargeld abschaffen. Damit soll die Flucht in Cash verhindert werden.

Weltweit rutschen die Zinsen weiter ins Minus. Immer mehr Banken verlangen von ihren Kunden Negativzinsen. Derzeit werden besonders bei hohen Kontoständen jährlich bis 0,4% abgezogen. Bei kleineren Kontoständen gibt es derzeit Ausnahmen, doch diese fallen bald weg, da die Notenbanken wegen Rezession die Zinsen immer tiefer ins Minus drücken.

Schon jetzt gibt es einen heimlichen Bankrun, heißt es in einem EZB-Geheimreport. Obwohl der 500er bald abgeschafft werden soll sind derzeit über 600 Millionen dieses größten Euro-Scheins im Umlauf (Entspricht einer Cash-Summe 300 Mrd.). Denn auch wenn er nicht mehr gedruckt wird, behält der Schein seinen Wert und kann jederzeit umgetauscht werden. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Britain’s political landscape has been shaped by patient politicians

Posted by hkarner - 5. Januar 2019

Date: 04-01-2019
Source: The Economist: Bagehot

How tortoises triumphed over the hares

Over the coming weeks the British will have plenty of chances to reflect on Harold Wilson’s dictum that “a week is a long time in politics”. As mps debate Theresa May’s Brexit deal the future of the country will seem to hang on a tide-turning speech or a high-profile defection. But in fact high-speed politics will be a testimony to the importance of low-speed politics: the political landscape has been created by patient men who thought in terms of decades rather than weeks.

For most of their lives Brexiteers have been dismissed by the establishment as irritating protuberances who got in the way of good government. John Major called them “bastards”. Other choice epithets include “the barmy army” and “swivel-eyed loons”. They forged on regardless, convinced that they would be judged in the light of history rather than the next day’s newspapers. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Cashing In: Why Cash Should Be in Your Portfolio Again

Posted by hkarner - 6. April 2018

Date: 06-04-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

As volatility returns to the markets and interest rates rise, cash is turning out to be a safe asset

The Federal Reserve’s rate increases and the Trump administration’s fiscal profligacy have pushed up the yield on cash and cash-like instruments to the highest level in years.

Holding cash is investment heresy after a decade of the lowest interest rates in history. It is time to consider the sacrilegious and add cash back into portfolios.

The value of cash was demonstrated in the first quarter: Both stocks and bonds lost money—the first quarter that has happened since the aftermath of Lehman’s failure in 2008. Cash turned out to be the safe asset. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Where Will We Get the Cash?

Posted by hkarner - 12. Februar 2018

We already knew interest rates were rising. Recent data suggests they could rise significantly more than many expected just a few weeks ago. If so, that will be a big problem for bonds, stocks, and many other assets – not to mention taxpayers who will bear the cost of swelling government debt, consumers who may face inflation, and everybody who will be hurt by a recession.

The combination of a falling stock market and rising interest rates is historically and statistically rare. Normally, when the stock market goes through a correction, interest rates fall. Looking back through history, we see that 1987 and 1994, two years I have been writing about in connection with 2018, were the other unusual years.

I’ve been relatively optimistic on the economy this year, and I still think the year can end well. But given recent events, the path is more challenging now – and the odds of a rough 2019 are growing.

Burn Rate Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Bonfire Burns On

Posted by hkarner - 28. November 2017

November 25, 2017

– Ralph Waldo Emerson, “Compensation”

Bonfires are fun to watch, but they eventually burn out. Human folly apparently doesn’t, so we just keep adding to the absurdities. The volume of daily economic lunacy that lights up my various devices is truly stunning, and it seems to be increasing. I shared a little of it with you in last week’s “Bonfire of the Absurdities.” Since it’s a holiday weekend and I was traveling all week, today I’ll just give you a few more absurdities to ponder. And this shorter letter will lighten your weekend reading load.


Leverage, American Style

When I asked my “kitchen cabinet” of friends for instances of the absurd, Grant Williams sent a monumental slide deck. I guess I should have expected that, as the absurd is one of his specialties. My computer almost melted trying to download the deck, but it finally finished and was worth the wait. Here is just one example of craziness. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Sinister War on Our Right to Hold Cash

Posted by hkarner - 22. August 2017

Thanks to H.F.
Author: F. William Engdahl, NEO

Has it ever occured to you that when you have no cash, you have no privacy?

An operation that began as a seemingly obscure academic discussion three years ago is now becoming a full-blown propaganda campaign by some of the most powerful institutions in the industrialized world. This is what rightly should be termed the War on Cash. Like the War on Terror, the War on Cancer or the War on Drugs, its true agenda is sinister and opaque. If we are foolish enough to swallow the propaganda for complete elimination of cash in favor of pure digital bank money, we can pretty much kiss our remaining autonomy and privacy goodbye. George Orwell’s 1984 will be here on steroids.

Let me be clear. Here we discuss not various block-chain digital technologies, so-called crypto-currencies. We are not addressing private payment systems such as China’s WeChat. Nor do we discuss e-banking or use of bank credit cards such as Visa or Master Card or others. These are of an entirely different quality from the goal of the ongoing sinister war on cash. They are all private services not state. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Super-Rich Sit On Too Much Cash, UBS Report Says

Posted by hkarner - 10. Juli 2017

Date: 08-07-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Ultra-high net worth investors hold too much cash, according to UBS, and it could be hurting their returns

UBS, the world’s largest wealth manager, said in a report that investors with at least $30 million in investible assets tend to maintain high cash allocations, often in the region of 35% of their total portfolio.

These high cash levels may be creating a drag on the performance of their assets, the report said. Over the past decade, cash has returned 1.1% on an annualized basis. In comparison an even split of private equity and hedge funds would have returned 3.8%.

The aftermath of the financial crisis and recent market volatility have pushed investors toward lower-risk investments. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Doing away with cash: Predicting the future of money

Posted by hkarner - 2. Juli 2017

Date: 29-06-2017
Source: The Economist

A new book argues that mobiles are the future

Before Babylon, Beyond Bitcoin: From Money that We Understand to Money that Understands Us. By David Birch. London Publishing Partnership; 264 pages; £22.50.

PEOPLE use money every day and yet struggle to understand it. The economic experiment known as monetarism—limiting the supply of money in order to control inflation—was abandoned when it became clear it was impossible to establish a precise definition of the money supply. The idea of negative interest rates, introduced by some modern central banks, puzzles those who think that savers should be rewarded for thrift.

“Before Babylon, Beyond Bitcoin” by David Birch, a consultant, offers a broad historical overview on the nature of this essential economic instrument. His underlying thesis is that money has evolved over the ages to suit the needs of society and the economy. Often these changes have occurred because previous forms of money were too inflexible. In the Middle Ages, metal coins were supplemented by bills of exchange to make long-term trade easier. Credit and debit cards have replaced the cumbersome process of clearing cheques.

Money may be about to change again. The author thinks cash will and should dwindle away. The future belongs, not to plastic cards, but to mobile phones. In Kenya, hundreds of businesses, including the leading utilities, accept payments through a mobile-based system known as M-Pesa (pesa means “money” in Kiswahili). More than two-thirds of adults use it. “With payment cards, you could pay retailers. With mobile phones, people can pay each other. And that changes everything,” he writes. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why Europe Still Needs Cash

Posted by hkarner - 27. April 2017

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