Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Posts Tagged ‘BRI’

The Global Consequences of a Sino-American Cold War

Posted by hkarner - 21. Mai 2019

Date: 20-05-2019
Source: by Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

What started as a trade war between the United States and China is quickly escalating into a death match for global economic, technological, and military dominance. If the two countries‘ leaders cannot manage the defining relationship of the twenty-first century responsibly, the entire world will bear the costs of their failure.

NEW YORK – A few years ago, as part of a Western delegation to China, I met President Xi Jinping in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People. When addressing us, Xi argued that China’s rise would be peaceful, and that other countries – namely, the United States – need not worry about the “Thucydides Trap,” so named for the Greek historian who chronicled how Sparta’s fear of a rising Athens made war between the two inevitable. In his 2017 book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, Harvard University’s Graham Allison examines 16 earlier rivalries between an emerging and an established power, and finds that 12 of them led to war. No doubt, Xi wanted us to focus on the remaining four. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China tries to calm jitters about the „Belt and Road“ Initiative

Posted by hkarner - 27. April 2019

Date: 25-04-2019
Source: The Economist

Though belt-and-road lending is worrisome, it is not malevolent. The real problem is overreach

Chinese engineers are drilling their way through the green hills of Laos, clearing a path for a railway that one day may traverse South-East Asia. Each time they complete a tunnel—at least three times in the past month—they hold a brief ceremony, waving Chinese flags for the cameras. They are celebrating not just their engineering success but also the evidence before them that the Belt and Road Initiative (bri), China’s global infrastructure-building scheme, is making progress. The full railway is a long way off. Work has barely begun in Thailand, the next link. But the section in Laos should be in use by 2021.

It will be a test of what many see as a big economic danger of the bri: that it will saddle poor countries with unmanageable debts. China insists that its tens of billions of dollars in loans and investments are fostering global prosperity—a message that it is sure to repeat to foreign leaders attending the second Belt and Road Forum, which takes place from April 25th to 27th in Beijing (pictured is a floral display marking the event). But worries about the cost of the bri, a project closely linked with President Xi Jinping’s foreign policy, have become widespread. Malaysia, Pakistan and Sierra Leone are among a growing list of countries that have delayed or scrapped China-led projects. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The New-Old Globalization

Posted by hkarner - 3. April 2019

Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation. A specialist on German economic history and on globalization, he is a co-author of the new book The Euro and The Battle of Ideas, and the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle, Krupp: A History of the Legendary German Firm, and Making the European Monetary Union.

The European Union is increasingly divided over how best to manage economic relations with an increasingly outward-looking China. On the whole, European governments are probably right to be wary of Chinese investment; but that doesn’t mean they should ignore China’s vision of cross-border development.

PRINCETON – Once upon a time, everyone assumed that there was a single phenomenon called globalization, whereby cross-border flows of financial capital drove innovation, industrialization, development, and trade. But Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) advances an alternative vision of globalization, based on an integrated system of physical infrastructure. The material world of ships and trains will replace the immaterial world of financialization.

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Europe Must Unite on China

Posted by hkarner - 28. März 2019

Guy Verhofstadt, a former Belgian prime minister, is President of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Group (ALDE) in the European Parliament and the author of Europe’s Last Chance: Why the European States Must Form a More Perfect Union.

The Italian government’s decision to endorse China’s „Belt and Road Initiative“ is antithetical to European and Italian interests alike, and plays directly into Chinese President Xi Jinping’s hands. While the European Union should pursue a closer relationship with China, it must do so as a single bloc – and thus on a co-equal footing.

BRUSSELS – When seeking investment capital and seemingly lucrative commercial deals, EU member-state governments do not always consider shared European interests. This has especially been the case with respect to China. Yet member states that pursue a relationship with China unilaterally endanger both themselves and the rest of Europe.

True, attempts to define a common EU position toward China have so far been limited. Distracted by the endless Brexit saga and the threats , EU leaders have found scant time to discuss many other important issues. Still, in anticipation of an upcoming EU-China summit on April 9, EU leaders did explore common approaches to China at a meeting this month in Brussels, where they highlighted the risks of the Italian government’s Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italy’s BRI Blunder

Posted by hkarner - 22. März 2019

Lucrezia Poggetti

Lucrezia Poggetti is a research associate at the Mercator Institute for China Studies.

Although Italy’s governing parties are belatedly debating the wisdom of signing onto Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative, it is already too late for Italy to change course. Having spurned joint EU efforts to secure Europe’s strategic sectors, Italy will soon find that it got a raw deal.

BERLIN – Barring any sudden reversals, Italy will formally endorse China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Rome this week. Though US President Donald Trump’s administration recently signaled its disapproval of Italy’s engagement with China’s massive transnational infrastructure investment scheme, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte confirmed on March 15 that the government will proceed with signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU).

The MoU will come at a high political cost for Italy, while offering only limited economic benefits. Nonetheless, it has been in the pipeline for quite some time. Italian Undersecretary of State for Economic Development Michele Geraci, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development’s “China Task Force,” has made formal endorsement of the BRI his pet project. And Italian Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio has publicly committed to signing the document. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italy’s plan to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative ruffles feathers

Posted by hkarner - 22. März 2019

Date: 21-03-2019
Source: The Economist

At home and abroad

CHINA’S PRESIDENT, Xi Jinping, is due to land in Rome on March 21st.

His itinerary will include a state dinner, accompanied by a performance by Andrea Bocelli, an Italian opera star. Even more enjoyable for Mr Xi will be welcoming Italy into his “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI), a programme of infrastructure projects that spans Eurasia, the Middle East and Africa. Italy’s prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, hopes the planned agreement, due to be signed on March 23rd, will boost Italian exports to China. But the accord has caused consternation both within his government and among Italy’s traditional allies.

The BRI is China’s project to create a modern-day Silk Road, the ancient network of trade routes which connected east and west. Billions of dollars have been invested since it was launched in 2013 across more than 60 countries, in disparate infrastructure projects including railways, roads and ports. Some estimates of the total investment over the coming years run to $1trn or more. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Klammes Italien sucht in China Geld für Infrastrukturprojekte

Posted by hkarner - 16. März 2019

15. März 2019, 17:39 derstandard.at

Rom will am Megaprojekt „neue Seidenstraße“ mitnaschen, aller Kritik aus der EU und aus den USA zum Trotz

Rom/Peking – Italien werde mit der angekündigten Kooperation bei der „neuen Seidenstraße“ weder zu einer „Kolonie Chinas“ noch zu einem „Brückenkopf“ für chinesische Handelsinteressen in Europa, versicherte Italiens Premier in kürzlich. Und schon gar nicht werde durch die italienische Beteiligung an dem gigantischen chinesischen Infrastrukturprojekt die Verankerung Italiens in der Nato in Frage gestellt: „Die atlantische Allianz bleibt eine tragende Säule unserer Außenpolitik“, versicherte Conte.

Die Beschwichtigungen des italienischen Regierungschefs kommen nicht von ungefähr: Die Regierung von Conte will am 22. März, wenn der chinesische Präsidenten Xi Jinping in Rom zum Staatsbesuch erwartet wird, eine Vereinbarung zur neuen Seidenstraße unterzeichnen. Dies hat vor allem in Washington harsche Kritik ausgelöst: China wolle mit der neuen Seidenstraße seinen Machtbereich ausweiten; falls Rom da mitmache, stelle es seine „internationale Reputation“ und die italienisch-amerikanische Freundschaft aufs Spiel, erklärte Garrett Marquis, Sprecher des Nationalen Sicherheitsrats in Washington.

USA drohen

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The struggle to reform China’s economy

Posted by hkarner - 23. Februar 2019

Date: 21-02-2019
Source: The Economist

How Xi Jinping could both calm the trade war and make China richer

For the past two weeks Chinese and American negotiators have been locked in talks in Beijing and Washington to end their trade conflict before the deadline of March 1st, when America will ratchet up tariffs on Chinese goods or, perhaps, let the talks stretch into extra time. Don’t be distracted by mind-numbing details on soyabean imports and car joint-ventures. At stake is one of the 21st century’s most consequential issues: the trajectory of China’s $14trn economy.

Although President Donald Trump started the trade war, pretty much all sides in America agree that China’s steroidal state capitalism makes it a bad actor in the global trading system and poses a threat to security. Many countries in Europe and Asia agree. At the heart of these complaints is the role of China’s government, which funnels cheap capital towards state firms, bullies private companies and breaches the rights of foreign ones. As a result, China grossly distorts markets at home and abroad.

The backlash is happening just as China’s model of debt, heavy investment and state direction is yielding diminishing returns. Growth this quarter may fall to 6%, the worst in nearly three decades. Many suspect that the true figure is lower still. By opening the economy and curbing the state, Xi Jinping, China’s autocratic leader, could boost performance within China’s borders and win a less hostile reception beyond them. He is loth to limit the power of the government and the party, or to accept American demands. But China’s path leads to long-term instability. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Löst China die nächste Finanzkrise aus?

Posted by hkarner - 19. Februar 2019

China versucht, Entwicklungsländer und deren Rohstoffquellen durch forcierte Kreditvergaben unter seinen Einfluss zu bekommen. Der IWF fürchtet, dass intransparente Kreditvergabe Schwellenländer in Zahlungsnot bringt.

In vielen Entwicklungsländern hätte die Verschuldung ein nicht mehr tragbares Ausmaß erreicht, meinte Lagarde – und forderte China auf, dem sogenannten Pariser Club beizutreten. 

München/Wien. Der chinesische Scheckbuchimperialismus, mit dem Peking seinen politischen Einfluss vor allem in Afrika und Osteuropa, aber auch in Südamerika rasant ausbaut, macht nun offenbar auch den Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) nervös: Dessen Chefin, Christine Lagarde, hat bei der Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz am Wochenende vor einer neuen, von den Schwellenländern ausgehenden Finanzkrise gewarnt, deren Auslöser die intransparente Kreditvergabe durch China sein werde.

In vielen Entwicklungsländern hätte die Verschuldung ein nicht mehr tragbares Ausmaß erreicht, meinte Lagarde – und forderte China auf, dem sogenannten Pariser Club beizutreten. Das ist ein informelles Gremium, das Transparenzregeln für die Vergabe staatlicher Kredite festlegt und im Fall der Uneinbringlichkeit solcher Kredite tätig wird. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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In the future, Eurasia will rule the world

Posted by hkarner - 10. Februar 2019

Date: 07-02-2019
Source: The Economist

But China won’t have everything its own way, say three stimulating new books

The New Silk Roads. By Peter Frankopan. Knopf; 336 pages; $26.95. Bloomsbury; £14.99.

The Future is Asian. By Parag Khanna. Simon & Schuster; 448 pages; $29.95. Weidenfeld & Nicolson; £20.

Belt and Road: A Chinese World Order. By Bruno Maçães. Hurst; 224 pages; $29.95 and £20.

Asked how he came to write “The Lord of the Rings”, J.R.R. Tolkien replied: “I wisely started with a map and made the story fit.” And so, says Bruno Maçães, when imagining new realities it is natural to begin the same way. These days a revised map of the world might have a radically different focus from previous ones—because a vast, integrated Eurasian supercontinent is proving to be the salient feature of an emerging global order.
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