Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Bonds’

Where Will We Get the Cash?

Posted by hkarner - 12. Februar 2018

We already knew interest rates were rising. Recent data suggests they could rise significantly more than many expected just a few weeks ago. If so, that will be a big problem for bonds, stocks, and many other assets – not to mention taxpayers who will bear the cost of swelling government debt, consumers who may face inflation, and everybody who will be hurt by a recession.

The combination of a falling stock market and rising interest rates is historically and statistically rare. Normally, when the stock market goes through a correction, interest rates fall. Looking back through history, we see that 1987 and 1994, two years I have been writing about in connection with 2018, were the other unusual years.

I’ve been relatively optimistic on the economy this year, and I still think the year can end well. But given recent events, the path is more challenging now – and the odds of a rough 2019 are growing.

Burn Rate Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Shares Are Wildly Overpriced. But Bonds May Be Even Worse

Posted by hkarner - 14. Januar 2018

Date: 12-01-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Stocks lose their appeal as yields rise; today’s high valuations suggest lower returns ahead

Bond yields are on the rise again, and it’s making shareholders jittery. They are right to worry, as low yields are the main support for historically high stock valuations, but bonds aren’t creating serious trouble for the equity market yet.

Bonds matter to shareholders in many ways, with the most obvious being that they are the main alternative investment, along with cash. Shares are very expensive compared with their own history on almost every measure, but compared with locking in a paltry 2.5% for 10 years they don’t look so bad. To put some numbers on it, analyst estimates of forward-looking operating earnings are 5.4% of the price of the S&P 500, and forecast to keep rising in future years. Why settle for 2.5% from bonds when the earnings yield on stocks is double that?

The question comes down to one of reward for risk. Earnings are uncertain, so shareholders should get an extra reward for the risk of holding stocks compared with the certainty offered by Treasurys. That reward, known as the equity risk premium, shrinks if bond yields rise faster than the outlook for profit.

Working out this equity risk premium is contentious, to put it mildly. The principle is to estimate how much companies will generate for shareholders in future and compare it with bonds, but there is little agreement on how to do that. We care about the future, and we want something long term, so typically the focus is on estimates for operating earnings, stripping out one-offs. Unfortunately, management know this, and artificially boost operating earnings via one-off losses—not just once, but year after year. Overall earnings also overstate how much investors benefit, as much corporate investment is wasted. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Four Things Sure to Happen in Markets During 2018

Posted by hkarner - 8. Januar 2018

Date: 06-01-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Jason Zweig

You can’t be certain about anything in this market, except this

Forget Dow 25000. Every year is full of surprises, but there are a few things every investor should expect to see happen in 2018.

With companies moving less in lockstep, professional investors will declare this a “stock pickers’ market.” Asset managers will proclaim that the impending rise in interest rates means you need bond funds that can hold any kind of debt. After years of smooth increases, even a 5% decline will set off cries of panic. And reported returns will shoot upward as the financial crisis of 2008 is jettisoned from 10-year track records. A look at these trends now should help keep you from overreacting — or acting at all — when they transpire.

Correlations, or the extent to which companies move up or down together, are at their lowest in more than 25 years, according to T. Rowe Price.

Whenever stocks rise and fall independently like this, portfolio managers say beating the market becomes easier. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Many happy returns: new data reveal long-term investment trends

Posted by hkarner - 6. Januar 2018

Date: 04-01-2018
Source: The Economist: Free exchange

Property yields more than shares and bonds; investment returns outstrip economic growth

DATA-GATHERING is the least sexy part of economics, which is saying something.

Yet it is also among the most important. The discipline is rife with elaborate theories built on assumptions that turned out to be false once someone took the time to pull together the relevant data. Accordingly, one of the most valuable papers produced in 2017 is an epic example of data-retrieval: a piece of research that spells out the rates of return on important asset classes, for 16 advanced economies, from 1870 to 2015. It is fascinating work, a rich seam for other economists to mine, and a source of insight into some of today’s great economic debates.

Rates of return both influence and are influenced by the way firms and households expect the future to unfold. They therefore find their way into all sorts of economic models. Yet data on asset returns are incomplete. The new research, published as an NBER working paper in December 2017, fills in quite a few gaps. It is the work of five economists: Òscar Jordà of the San Francisco Fed, Katharina Knoll of the Bundesbank, Alan Taylor of the University of California, Davis, and Dmitry Kuvshinov and Moritz Schularick, both of the University of Bonn. (Messrs Jordà, Schularick and Taylor have spent years building a massive collection of historical macroeconomic and financial data.) For each of the 16 economies, they craft long-term series showing annual real rates of return—taking into account both investment income, such as dividends, and capital gains, all net of inflation—for government bonds and short-term bills, equities and housing. Theirs is the first such data set to gather all of that information for so many countries over so long a period. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Income Investors: It’s OK to Be Sad, But Don’t Get Desperate

Posted by hkarner - 8. Oktober 2017

Date: 07-10-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Jason Zweig

Old bull markets don’t produce new ideas. They just produce new ways for investors to hurt themselves with old ideas.

With stocks at record highs and the income on bonds not far from record lows, circumstantial evidence suggests investors are getting restless — if not desperate.

Chasing “yield,” or trying to get higher investment income, is one form of desperation. Last month, $1.6 billion in new money poured into exchange-traded funds holding high-yield corporate bonds, according to FactSet. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Das Gerangel um die Jahrhundertanleihen

Posted by hkarner - 3. Oktober 2017

Österreich sammelt mit einer 100-jährigen Anleihe Milliarden ein. Die Nachfrage kommt von Versicherern und Pensionskassen. Doch gibt es auch Risken.

Frankfurt. Auf der verzweifelten Suche nach Rendite packen sich Investoren immer häufiger extrem lang laufende Staatsanleihen in ihre Depots. Selbst mit 100-jährigen Bonds sammelten Österreich und Argentinien kürzlich Milliardengelder ein. Kanada denkt über einen neuen 50-jährigen Schuldschein nach, und Experten erwarten, dass auch die USA bald mit einem solchen Wertpapier an den Markt gehen.

Für die Länder sind solche Papiere interessant, weil sie sich über einen langen Zeitraum niedrige Zinsen sichern. Fachleute warnen aber Investoren vor einem unberechenbaren Risiko bei dieser Form der Geldanlage. „Es ist eine klare Tendenz hin zu ultralangen Anleihen zu erkennen“, sagt Analyst Elmar Völker von der Landesbank Baden-Württemberg. „Vor der Finanzkrise war das Höchste der Gefühle eine 30-jährige Anleihe. Inzwischen finden selbst Länder mit einer höheren Verschuldung Abnehmer für länger laufende Bonds.“ Im Oktober 2016 emittierte Italien eine 50-jährige Anleihe – obwohl die dortigen Banken in einer schweren Krise stecken und das Land so stark verschuldet ist wie kaum ein anderer Staat in Europa. Argentinien, das schon mehrfach bankrott war, sammelte im Juni 2,8 Mrd. US-Dollar (2,37 Mrd. Euro) ein, die erst 2117 zurückgezahlt werden müssen.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Posted by hkarner - 21. September 2017

FURCHE-Kolumne 224, Wilfried Stadler

Gegen Ende des neunzehnten Jahrhunderts war die politische und wirtschaftliche Zuversicht schon einmal so hoch, dass sich genügend Käufer für Anleihen mit sehr langen Laufzeiten fanden. Auf einen eindrücklichen Beleg dafür stieß ich schon während meiner Studienzeit in einer auf einem Flohmarkt erworbenen Wiener Wochenzeitung aus 1894. Man empfahl dort wortreich den Ankauf drei-prozentiger Schuldtitel der soeben verstaatlichten SüdbahnGesellschaft. Die Verzinsung wurde als ausreichend angesehen, um den Nachteil auszugleichen, dass der Käufer – so die wörtliche Formulierung von anno dazumal – „im ungünstigsten Falle mit der Eventualität zu rechnen hat, dass er den Nominalwert erst 1968 ausbezahlt erhält.“ Wer konnte schon wissen, dass sich in den 74 Jahren bis dorthin zwei Weltkriege und zwei Totalentwertungen allen Geldes ereignen würden? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Greece Gets Solid Demand for First Bond Issuance in Three Years

Posted by hkarner - 27. Juli 2017

Date: 26-07-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Government sees as first move to wean country from new bailouts

Greece got solid demand Tuesday for its first bond issuance in three years, in what the government sees as the first of several moves that will enable the debt-ridden country to wean itself from new bailouts.

Tuesday’s deal included an invitation for holders of a bond coming due in 2019 to swap their securities for new ones due in 2022.

Greece sold €3 billion worth of the 2022 bond, Greek government officials and bankers said. About half of that is new money, and half is existing investors in the 2019 bond who switched, according to one of the banks managing the deal.

The new bond matures in August 2022 and will yield 4.625%. The 2019 bond is yielding around 3.2%, so investors will be paid a decent premium for participating in the swap. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The $9 Trillion Question: What Happens When Central Banks Stop Buying Bonds?

Posted by hkarner - 11. Mai 2017

Date: 10-05-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Central banks have been the world’s biggest buyers of government bonds and may soon turn into sellers

Recent data showed that the European Central Bank holds total assets of $4.5 trillion, more than any other central bank ever. Above, the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt.

Central banks have been the world’s biggest buyers of government bonds and may soon turn into sellers—a tidal shift for global markets. Yet investors can’t agree on what that shift will mean.

Part of the problem is that there is little agreement about how the massive stimulus policies, known as quantitative easing or QE, affected bonds in the first place. That makes it especially hard to assess what happens when the tide changes. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Pimco und Gründer Bill Gross haben Schlammschlacht beendet

Posted by hkarner - 28. März 2017

28. März 2017, 17:13  derstandard.at

Pimco zahlt 81 Mio. Dollar für wohltätige Zwecke – Gross war im Herbst 2015 um Unfrieden gegangen – Ivascyn: Gross war immer „überlebensgroß“

New York – Ende einer Schlammschlacht: Der ehemalige „Anleihe-König“ Bill Gross bekommt von der US-Fondsgesellschaft Pimco zwei Insidern zufolge 81 Mio. Dollar (74,4 Mio. Euro). Das Geld werde für wohltätige Zwecke gespendet, erklärte Pimco, ohne die Summe zu bestätigen. Firmengründer Gross, der das Unternehmen 1999 an den Münchener Versicherer Allianz verkauft hatte, war vor zweieinhalb Jahren im Unfrieden ausgeschieden und zum kleineren Konkurrenten Janus Capital gewechselt.

Der heute 72-Jährige hatte 200 Mio. Dollar von Pimco gefordert: Manager um den heutigen Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Dan Ivascyn hätten ihn aus dem Unternehmen gedrängt, um an den ihm zustehenden 20-Prozent-Anteil vom Bonustopf zu kommen. Allein 2013 hatte er mehr als 300 Mio. Dollar an Boni bekommen – von 1,3 Mrd. Dollar insgesamt. Das Magazin „Forbes“ schätzt Gross‘ Vermögen auf 2,5 Mrd. Dollar. Nun betonte er, es sei ihm nie um Geld gegangen. „Pimco war immer wie eine Familie für mich, und wie in jeder Familie gibt es manchmal Meinungsverschiedenheiten.“

Jetzt erhielten die Gründer von Pimco die Anerkennung, die sie verdienten. Die Firma will zu ihren Ehren einen eigenen Raum in der Firmenzentrale im kalifornischen Newport Beach einrichten. „Ich war immer verblüfft über meinen Erfolg“, erklärte Gross. Er wisse, dass das Unternehmen in guten Händen sei, hieß es in einer gemeinsamen Erklärung von Pimco und Gross. Pimco hatte dem früheren Star-Investor in dem Rechtsstreit „ungeheures Fehlverhalten“ gegenüber Mitarbeitern vorgeworfen, das seinen Rauswurf gerechtfertigt hätte, wenn er nicht vorher selbst den Bettel hingeworfen hätte. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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