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Posts Tagged ‘Blanchard’

Crash-Gefahr: Der globale Währungskrieg gerät außer Kontrolle

Posted by hkarner - 9. Februar 2016

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Es ist der gefährlichste Fehler im System: Die Abwertung des chinesischen Yuan kann eine globale Banken- und Schuldenkrise auslösen. China würde in diesem weltweiten Blitz-Währungskrieg schweren Schaden nehmen – genauso wie alle Exportnationen. Ein großer Verlierer wäre Deutschland. Die Sieger wären die US-Hedge Funds, deren Spekulation zum Geschäft des Jahrhunderts würden.

blanchard1-1In Erwartung des großen Knalls: IWF-Mann Olivier Blanchard in Peking, im Januar 2015.

Das internationale Währungssystem ist in Aufruhr. Es widerspiegelt dies grosse tektonische Verschiebungen: Nach einem langen Boom der Rohwarenpreise von 2002 bis 2011 sind diese seit Mitte 2014 sehr stark gefallen, praktisch wieder auf den Ausgangspunkt des Booms zurück. Viele Währungen von Schwellenländern folgen den Rohstoffpreisen in den Keller. China war der Treiber dieses Rohstoffbooms. Jetzt kühlt seine Wirtschaft heftig ab. Und der Yuan, die Währung der Volksrepublik, ist im Zug seiner Teil-Liberalisierung ebenfalls unter Druck geraten. Was auf den ersten Blick als vernünftiger Anpassungsmechanismus erscheint, ist in Tat und Wahrheit ein fehlerhaft konzipiertes Weltwährungssystem, das die Welt in eine Schulden- und Bankenkrise stürzen kann.

Viele Marktteilnehmer kritisieren die amerikanische Zentralbank für ihre Zinserhöhung im Dezember: Sie zeige schlechtes Timing, sei Schuld am Markteinbruch, provoziere oder verschärfe die Rezession. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Rebooting the Eurozone: Step 1 – Agreeing a Crisis narrative

Posted by hkarner - 19. November 2015


Thu, 11/19/2015, voxeu

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Blanchard: Looking Forward, Looking Back

Posted by hkarner - 1. September 2015


August 31, 2015

  • IMF Chief Economist Blanchard to step down end September
  • Financial crisis raises potential existential crisis for macroeconomics
  • Need to address longer term issues of low productivity growth, increasing inequality

Olivier Blanchard will step down as Economic Counsellor and Director of the IMF’s Research Department at the end of September.

He will join the Peterson Institute for International Economics in October as the first C. Fred Bergsten senior fellow, a post named for the founder of the influential 35-year-old, Washington-based think tank.

When French-born Blanchard, a former chairman of the economics department at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, joined the IMF on September 1, 2008, little did he realize that he would be at the center of a global economic storm. Two weeks later, Lehman Brother’s bank collapsed, marking what many consider the start of the 2008-09 global financial crisis.   Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Past, Present and Future of Economics, According to Olivier Blanchard

Posted by hkarner - 1. September 2015

Date: 01-09-2015
Source: The Wall Street Journal

blanchard1-1Olivier Blanchard, who is soon to leave his post as the IMF’s chief economist.

Olivier Blanchard began his tenure as the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist at the start of the 2008 global economic crisis and is leaving his post amid world-wide market turmoil.

But one would be hard-pressed to say that it’s not a changed world.

In the latest issue of the IMF’s research magazine, Mr. Blanchard gives a high-altitude survey of the recent past, present and future of the global economy and the science of economics (or alchemy, depending on your view).

Here are a few highlights:

The recent past:

“The financial crisis raises a potentially existential crisis for macroeconomics. Practical macro is based on the assumption that there are fairly stable aggregate relations, so we do not need to keep track of each individual, firm, or financial institution–that we do not need to understand the details of the micro plumbing. We have learned that the plumbing, especially the financial plumbing, matters: the same aggregates can hide serious macro problems. How do we do macro then?” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Greece: Past Critiques and the Path Forward

Posted by hkarner - 10. Juli 2015

A reasonable explanation by O. Blanchard, who – in my opinion – is a serious guy! (hfk)

Posted on by iMFdirect

IMG_0248By Olivier Blanchard

A citizen of France, Olivier Blanchard has spent his professional life in Cambridge, U.S. After obtaining his Ph.D in economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1977, he taught at Harvard University, returning to MIT in 1982, where he has been since then. He is the Class of 1941 Professor of Economics, and past Chair of the Economics Department. He is currently on leave from MIT, as Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund.

All eyes are on Greece, as the parties involved continue to strive for a lasting deal, spurring vigorous debate and some sharp criticisms, including of the IMF.

In this context, I thought some reflections on the main critiques could help clarify some key points of contention as well as shine a light on a possible way forward.

The main critiques, as I see them, fall under the following four categories:

  • The 2010 program only served to raise debt and demanded excessive fiscal adjustment.
  • The financing to Greece was used to repay foreign banks.
  • Growth-killing structural reforms, together with fiscal austerity, have led to an economic depression.
  • Creditors have learned nothing and keep repeating the same mistakes. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Greece: A credible deal will require difficult decisions by all sides

Posted by hkarner - 18. Juni 2015

blanchard1-1Olivier Blanchard,  15 June 2015, voxeu

The status of negotiations between Greece and its official creditors – the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF – dominated headlines last week.  At the core of the negotiations is a simple question: How much of an adjustment has to be made by Greece, how much has to be made by its official creditors? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Ten Take Aways from the “Rethinking Macro Policy: Progress or Confusion?”

Posted by hkarner - 2. Mai 2015

An excellent report on the current thinking (hfk)

Posted on by iMFdirect

blanchBy Olivier Blanchard

On April 15-16, the IMF organized the third conference on “Rethinking Macro Policy.

Here are my personal take aways.

1. What will be the “new normal”? 

I had asked the panelists to concentrate not on current policy challenges, but on challenges in the “new normal.” I had implicitly assumed that this new normal would be very much like the old normal, one of decent growth and positive equilibrium interest rates. The assumption was challenged at the conference.

On the one hand, Ken Rogoff argued that what we were in the adjustment phase of the “debt supercycle.” Such financial cycles, he argued, end up with debt overhang, which in turn slows down the recovery and requires low interest rates for some time to maintain sufficient demand.  Under that view, while it may take a while for the overhang to go away, more so in the Euro zone than in the United States, we should eventually return to something like the old normal.

On the other hand, Larry Summers argued that, while debt overhang was clearly relevant, more was going on.  He expanded on his secular stagnation hypothesis, arguing that, in the context of a chronic excess of saving over investment, keeping the economy at potential may well require very low or even negative real interest rates.  He pointed out that real interest rates had started declining long before the crisis, and pointed also to the further decline in long rates since he first stated this hypothesis at an IMF conference last year. If he is right, the new normal will not be like the old normal. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Rethinking macroeconomic policy: Introduction

Posted by hkarner - 21. April 2015

Olivier Blanchard 20 April 2015, voxeublanchard1-1

My subtitle was rejected by one of the co-organisers, namely Larry Summers. He argued that I was far too optimistic, that we were nowhere close to knowing where were going. Arguing with Larry is tough, so I chose an agnostic title, and shifted to “Rethinking Macro Policy III. Progress or confusion?” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Four Forces Facing the Global Economy

Posted by hkarner - 15. April 2015

Posted on by iMFdirect

WEOBy Olivier Blanchard 

In our April 2015 World Economic Outlook, we forecast global growth to be roughly the same this year than last year, 3.5% versus 3.4%.   This global number reflects an increase in growth in advanced economies, 2.4% versus 1.8%, offset by a decrease in growth in emerging market and developing economies, 4.3% versus 4.6% last year.   In short, to repeat the words used by the IMF Managing Director last week, we see growth as “moderate and uneven”.

Behind these numbers lies an unusually complex set of forces shaping the world economy.  Some, such as the decline in the price of oil and the evolution of exchange rates, are highly visible.  Some, from crisis legacies to lower potential growth, play more of a role behind the scene but are important nevertheless.  Let me briefly review them.

Legacies from both the financial and the euro crises are still visible in many advanced economies. To varying degrees, weak banks and high levels of debt—public, corporate, or household—still weigh on spending and growth. Low growth, in turn, makes deleveraging a slow process.  There is a clear lesson here:  Deleveraging will take time. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Challenges ahead: Managing spillovers

Posted by hkarner - 3. Dezember 2014

Olivier Blanchard, Luc Laeven, Esteban R Vesperoni 03 December 2014, voxeu

Chief economist, IMF

Deputy Division Chief in the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund and CEPR Research Fellow

Esteban R Vesperoni

Senior Economist, IMF


The events of the last five years have been a forceful reminder of the interconnections among nations. There has been renewed debate on the optimal way to combine fiscal, monetary, and financial policies to deal with international spillovers, and on the scope for coordination of such policies. This column discusses the highlights of a recent IMF conference on “Cross-Border Spillovers”, and applies the lessons to the challenges of the US and the Eurozone exiting from their unconventional monetary policies.

Events of the last five years have forcefully reminded the global community of the risks present in the global economy and the interconnections among nations. Intense discussions have arisen on the optimal way to combine fiscal, monetary, and financial policies to deal with spillovers across nations, and on the scope for coordination of such policies. In this context, the theme chosen for the IMF’s 15th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference was “Cross-Border Spillovers”.1 This column discusses the conference highlights. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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