Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Automation’

IWF entdeckt Schattenseiten der Globalisierung

Posted by hkarner - 20. April 2017

András Szigetvari aus Washington, 20. April 2017, 07:15 derstandard.at

Der Streit um Globalisierung, Freihandel und Ungleichheit dominiert Wahlkämpfe in Europa und den USA. Nun springt der Währungsfonds auf das Thema auf

Washington – Von ihrem kleinen Büro an der 19th Street in Washington, D.C., hat Mitali Das in den vergangenen Monaten die Revolution vorbereitet. Die Ökonomin arbeitet für den Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF). Sie sammelte Daten aus dutzenden Ländern. Ein Team unter ihrer Leitung führte die Kalkulationen durch, jedes Ergebnis wurde penibel nachgeprüft. Fehler durften nicht passieren, dafür war die Materie zu heikel. In einer soeben publizierten Studie ist Mitali Das der Frage nachgegangen, wie sich globaler Handel und technischer Fortschritt auf Einkommen und Einkommensverteilung ausgewirkt haben.

Wo der IWF in dieser Frage ideologisch steht, ist klar: Jahrzehntelang haben die Experten des Fonds gepredigt, dass Liberalisierung und Marktöffnung der beste Weg zu mehr Wohlstand für alle sind. Ungleichheit und Verteilungsfragen spielten in diesen Überlegungen keine Rolle. Die Arbeiten von Das, einer indischstämmigen ehemaligen Professorin an der Columbia-Universität, haben das verändert.

Lohnquote

Die Ökonomin und ihre Kollegen haben sich angesehen, wie sich der Anteil der Arbeitseinkommen im Verhältnis zur Wirtschaftsleistung (BIP) entwickelt hat. Unter die Lupe genommen wurde die Entwicklung dieser Lohnquote in 50 Ländern seit 1991. Das Ergebnis: Weltweit erhalten Arbeiter und Angestellte heute in der Mehrzahl der Länder einen geringeren Teil vom erwirtschafteten Wohlstand als zu Beginn der 1990er-Jahre. Auf Kapitalerträge dagegen entfällt ein größerer Teil des Kuchens. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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ARBEIT IM DIGITALEN ZEITALTER

Posted by hkarner - 9. März 2017

FURCHE-Kolumne 210 9. März 2017, Wilfried Stadler

Eine der vielen Fragen, über die sich Ökonomen nicht einig werden können, ist die nach den Folgen des Vordringens von Robotern und der Digitalisierung für die Beschäftigung. Während die einen steigende Arbeitslosigkeit erwarten, sehen andere nur einen weiteren jener Technologiesprünge, die zwar zunächst Verluste von Arbeitsplätzen in bisher ausgeübten, traditionellen Tätigkeiten nach sich ziehen, dafür aber in anderen, bisher unbekannten Bereichen ganz neue Erwerbsmöglichkeiten eröffnen.
Die Sorge, dass unser Gesellschaft die Arbeit ausgehen könnte, begleitet uns jedenfalls, seit es technischen Fortschritt gibt. Auf einen eindrücklichen Beleg dafür stieß ich vor kurzem ganz zufällig bei der Lektüre des Programmheftes zur Oper „Peer Gynt“ im Theater an der Wien. Dort fand sich das folgende Zitat von Hannah Arendt aus ihrem 1960 veröffentlichten Hauptwerk „Vita Activa oder Das tätige Leben“: Was uns bevorsteht, ist die Aussicht auf eine Arbeitsgesellschaft, der die Arbeit ausgegangen ist, also die einzige Tätigkeit, auf die sie sich noch versteht. Was könnte verhängnisvoller sein? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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GOLDMAN SACKED: HOW ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WILL TRANSFORM WALL STREET

Posted by hkarner - 28. Februar 2017

Date: 27-02-2017
Source: NewsWeek
High-earning traders will quickly become an endangered species as AI takes over the financial sector.

Will The Wolves Of Wall Street Be Out Of A Job Soon?
For the past year, we as a society have been worried sick about artificial intelligence eating the jobs of 3 million truck drivers. Turns out that a more imminently endangered species are the Wall Street traders and hedge fund managers who can afford to buy Lamborghinis and hire Elton John to play their Hamptons house parties.

So maybe “hooray for AI” on this one?

Financial giants such as Goldman Sachs and many of the biggest hedge funds are all switching on AI-driven systems that can foresee market trends and make trades better than humans. It’s been happening, drip by drip, for years, but a torrent of AI is about to wash through the industry, says Mark Minevich, a New York-based investor in AI and senior adviser to the U.S. Council on Competitiveness. High-earning traders are going to get unceremoniously dumped like workers at a closing factory.

“It will really hit at the soul of Wall Street,” Minevich tells me. “It will transform New York.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why taxing robots is not a good idea

Posted by hkarner - 24. Februar 2017

Date: 23-02-2017
Source: The Economist: Free exchange

Bill Gates’s proposal is revealing about the challenge automation poses

BILL GATES is an unlikely Luddite, however much Microsoft may have provoked people to take a hammer to their computers. Yet in a recent interview with Quartz, an online publication, he expressed scepticism about society’s ability to manage rapid automation. To forestall a social crisis, he mused, governments should consider a tax on robots; if automation slows as a result, so much the better. It is an intriguing if impracticable idea, which reveals a lot about the challenge of automation.

In some distant future robots with their own consciousnesses, nest-eggs and accountants might pay income taxes like the rest of us (presumably with as much enthusiasm). That is not what Mr Gates has in mind. He argues that today’s robots should be taxed—either their installation, or the profits firms enjoy by saving on the costs of the human labour displaced. The money generated could be used to retrain workers, and perhaps to finance an expansion of health care and education, which provide lots of hard-to-automate jobs in teaching or caring for the old and sick. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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No, Robots Aren’t Killing the American Dream

Posted by hkarner - 22. Februar 2017

Date: 21-02-2017
Source: The New York Times

Defenders of globalization are on solid ground when they criticize President Trump’s threats of punitive tariffs and border walls. The economy can’t flourish without trade and immigrants.

But many of those defenders have their own dubious explanation for the economic disruption that helped to fuel the rise of Mr. Trump.

At a recent global forum in Dubai, Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, said some of the economic pain ascribed to globalization was instead due to the rise of robots taking jobs. In his farewell address in January, President Barack Obama warned that “the next wave of economic dislocations won’t come from overseas. It will come from the relentless pace of automation that makes a lot of good middle-class jobs obsolete.”

Blaming robots, though, while not as dangerous as protectionism and xenophobia, is also a distraction from real problems and real solutions. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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As Goldman Embraces Automation, Even the Masters of the Universe Are Threatened

Posted by hkarner - 8. Februar 2017

Date: 07-02-2017
Source: Technology Review

Software that works on Wall Street is changing how business is done and who profits from it.

At its height back in 2000, the U.S. cash equities trading desk at Goldman Sachs’s New York headquarters employed 600 traders, buying and selling stock on the orders of the investment bank’s large clients. Today there are just two equity traders left.

Automated trading programs have taken over the rest of the work, supported by 200 computer engineers. Marty Chavez, the company’s deputy chief financial officer and former chief information officer, explained all this to attendees at a symposium on computing’s impact on economic activity held by Harvard’s Institute for Applied Computational Science last month.

The experience of its New York traders is just one early example of a transformation of Goldman Sachs, and increasingly other Wall Street firms, that began with the rise in computerized trading, but has accelerated over the past five years, moving into more fields of finance that humans once dominated. Chavez, who will become chief financial officer in April, says areas of trading like currencies and even parts of business lines like investment banking are moving in the same automated direction that equities have already traveled. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Three New Predictions for Automation and Jobs

Posted by hkarner - 17. Januar 2017

Date: 17-01-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Jobs will change, forcing workers to adapt and global productivity will rise

Robots factory CCAutomation could increase global productivity by 0.8% to 1.4% annually over the next 50 years, according to a new study.

As business and political leaders gather this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, several new reports that shed light on automation and the future of work are being released at the event. For those staying home from Switzerland this year, here’s an overview of notable findings.

Despite claims that robots are coming for our jobs, only 5% of all occupations are at risk of being entirely automated, according to a new report from the McKinsey Global Institute.

Rather than disappearing, the report’s authors say, jobs will change dramatically, forcing workers to adapt. McKinsey’s analysis of 800 occupations and 2,000 job tasks predicts that half of workers’ current tasks could be automated by the year 2055 using technology that currently exists. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Automation Can Actually Create More Jobs

Posted by hkarner - 13. Dezember 2016

Date: 12-12-2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal By CHRISTOPHER MIMS

Evidence shows increased productivity leads to more wealth, cheaper goods, greater spending power and ultimately, more jobs

Since the 1970s, when automated teller machines arrived, the number of bank tellers in America has more than doubled. James Bessen, an economist who teaches at Boston University School of Law, points to that seeming paradox amid new concerns that automation is “stealing” human jobs. To the contrary, he says, jobs and automation often grow hand in hand.

Sometimes, of course, machines really do replace humans, as in agriculture and manufacturing, says Massachusetts Institute of Technology labor economist David Autor in a succinct and illuminating TED talk, which could have served as the headline for this column. Across an entire economy, however, Dr. Autor says that’s never happened.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCxcnUrokJo&list=PLsRNoUx8w3rOyHeLmdk384sDpCq2GHwDw&index=3

The threat that machines pose to workers is in the news again, after an election that turned on the frustration of working-class voters. Last week, Amazon.com Inc. introduced Amazon Go, a store without cashiers.

Three days later, President-elect Donald Trump nominated Andy Puzder, chief executive of CKE Restaurants Holdings Inc., the parent company of Hardee’s and Carl’s Jr. chains, to be secretary of labor. Mr. Puzder has said that self-serve ordering kiosks, like those recently unveiled by McDonald’s Corp., will help his company eliminate workers. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Will smarter machines cause mass unemployment?

Posted by hkarner - 27. Juni 2016

Date: 23-06-2016
Source: The Economist
Subject: The impact on jobs: Automation and anxiety

SITTING IN AN office in San Francisco, Igor Barani calls up some medical scans on his screen. He is the chief executive of Enlitic, one of a host of startups applying deep learning to medicine, starting with the analysis of images such as X-rays and CT scans. It is an obvious use of the technology. Deep learning is renowned for its superhuman prowess at certain forms of image recognition; there are large sets of labelled training data to crunch; and there is tremendous potential to make health care more accurate and efficient.

Dr Barani points to some CT scans of a patient’s lungs, taken from three different angles. Red blobs flicker on the screen as Enlitic’s deep-learning system examines and compares them to see if they are blood vessels, harmless imaging artefacts or malignant lung nodules. The system ends up highlighting a particular feature for further investigation. In a test against three expert human radiologists working together, Enlitic’s system was 50% better at classifying malignant tumours and had a false-negative rate (where a cancer is missed) of zero, compared with 7% for the humans. Another of Enlitic’s systems, which examines X-rays to detect wrist fractures, also handily outperformed human experts. The firm’s technology is currently being tested in 40 clinics across Australia. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Automation, Productivity, and Growth

Posted by hkarner - 26. August 2015

Date: 26-08-2015
Source: Project Syndicate

MICHAEL SPENCESpence CC

Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics at NYU’s Stern School of Business, Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, Academic Board Chairman of the Fung Global Institute in Hong Kong, and Chair of the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on New Growth Models. He was the chairman of the independent Commission on Growth and Development, an international body that from 2006-2010 analyzed opportunities for global economic growth, and is the author of The Next Convergence – The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World.

BERLIN – It seems obvious that if a business invests in automation, its workforce – though possibly reduced – will be more productive. So why do the statistics tell a different story?

In advanced economies, where plenty of sectors have both the money and the will to invest in automation, growth in productivity (measured by value added per employee or hours worked) has been low for at least 15 years. And, in the years since the 2008 global financial crisis, these countries’ overall economic growth has been meager, too – just 4% or less on average.

One explanation is that the advanced economies had taken on too much debt and needed to deleverage, contributing to a pattern of public-sector underinvestment and depressing consumption and private investment as well. But deleveraging is a temporary process, not one that limits growth indefinitely. In the long term, overall economic growth depends on growth in the labor force and its productivity. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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