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Posts Tagged ‘Automation’

Automation and American Leadership

Posted by hkarner - 19. April 2018

Robert Skidelsky, Professor Emeritus of Political Economy at Warwick University and a fellow of the British Academy in history and economics, is a member of the British House of Lords. The author of a three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes, he began his political career in the Labour party, became the Conservative Party’s spokesman for Treasury affairs in the House of Lords, and was eventually forced out of the Conservative Party for his opposition to NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999.

In an era of rapid technological change, it is widely assumed that disruptions to labor markets are inevitable – and positive – indicators of a country’s international competitiveness. But should policymakers really use the economy to advance national power at the expense of the many people and regions left behind?

LONDON – Not so long ago, there were two competing explanations of unemployment. The first was the Keynesian theory of deficient demand, which holds that workers become unemployed “involuntarily” when their community lacks the money to buy the goods and services they produce. The second was the view often associated with the Chicago School, according to which unemployment is a voluntary choice of leisure over work at whatever the offered wage. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Automatisierung: Österreich bei gefährdeten Jobs im Mittelfeld

Posted by hkarner - 3. April 2018

3. April 2018, 17:43 derstandard.at

Hierzulande bestehe 49 Prozent Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass ein Job automatisiert wird, so eine Studie der OECD. In der Slowakei sind die Jobs am stärksten gefährdet

Wien – Österreich liegt im Mittelfeld von 32 untersuchten OECD-Ländern, wenn es um die Gefährdung von Arbeitsplätzen durch die zunehmende Automatisierung geht. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass ein Job automatisiert und verloren geht, liegt bei 49 Prozent. Am stärksten gefährdet ist die Slowakei mit 62 Prozent, am geringsten Neuseeland mit 39 Prozent. Der Durchschnitt liegt bei 48 Prozent. Laut der heute veröffentlichten OECD-Studie können rund 14 Prozent der Jobs in den untersuchten 32 Ländern relativ leicht automatisiert werden – die Wahrscheinlichkeit dafür liegt bei über 70 Prozent. Das entspricht über 66 Millionen Arbeitnehmern. Zusätzliche 32 Prozent der Jobs dürften bedeutenden Veränderungen unterworfen werden. Ein großer Teil der Aufgaben könnte automatisiert werden und damit die benötigten Anforderungen für diese Jobs verändern.

Industrie und Agrarwirtschaft besonders betroffen

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why governments have overestimated the economic returns of higher education

Posted by hkarner - 4. März 2018

Date: 02-03-2018
Source: The Economist

Earning a degree is about signalling, and not just learning

AUTOMATION and globalisation have brought drastic changes to Western labour markets. Middle-skilled jobs are disappearing fast. In America, wages for blue-collar workers have been largely stagnant since the 1970s, whereas those for university graduates have soared. Silicon Valley types frequently warn that advances in technology, especially in artificial intelligence, will be devastating for low-skilled workers. One prominent study, by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne of Oxford University, estimated that 47% of jobs in America could be automated over the next two decades. The spectre of mass unemployment, along with increasing levels of income equality, has led many policymakers to see investment in university as crucial for economic prosperity.

Governments have plenty of reason to be bullish about higher education. Perhaps the best piece of evidence they have of the wisdom of investing more in universities is the graduate-wage premium—the difference in wages between those with university degrees and those without. In their book “The Race between Education and Technology”, Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz of Harvard University point out that this premium fell during the first half of the 20th century in America as universities expanded enrolment, but started rising sharply around 1980. Although the premium has started to level off in recent years, the fact that university graduates still make around 70% more than non-graduates suggests that demand for skilled workers still far exceeds supply. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Automation will drive interest rates higher, a new report concludes

Posted by hkarner - 3. März 2018

Date: 01-03-2018
Source: The Economist

As rates rise, stress levels will, too

REAL interest rates in the developed world have been low ever since the financial crisis of 2008-09 (see chart). The global economy might have struggled to recover had that not been the case; higher rates would have caused many more companies and homeowners to default.

Central banks are now starting to push rates slightly higher. And according to a new paper* from Bain, a management consultancy, the trend towards robotics will push them higher still—at least for a decade. That could be a shock for the financial markets.

Bain estimates that by 2030 American companies will have invested as much as $8trn in automation. As companies scramble to borrow money in order to buy machinery and robots, the resulting investment boom will drive up rates.

Automation will boost productivity, which has grown sluggishly in recent years. This slowdown may have been caused by the shift from manufacturing to services, where productivity gains are harder to achieve. Between 1993 and 2014, the American car industry more than doubled its productivity, but lost 28% of its workforce. By contrast, over the same period hospitals added 28% more jobs and increased productivity by just 16%.

But automation is about to come to a wide range of service industries. Though that will be a boon for productivity, Bain estimates that 20-25% of current jobs could be eliminated by 2030. This shift will be much faster than previous labour-market transformations, such as that from agriculture to industry at the start of the 20th century. Lower-skilled workers, such as waiters, will take the biggest hit. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Robots Are Coming for Garment Workers. That’s Good for the U.S., Bad for Poor Countries

Posted by hkarner - 18. Februar 2018

Date: 17-02-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Automation is reaching into trades that once seemed immune, transforming sweatshops in places like Bangladesh and bringing production back to America

The Mohammadi Group’s automated knitting machines leave little for humans to do.

DHAKA—At the Mohammadi Fashion Sweaters Ltd. factory in Bangladesh’s capital, a few dozen workers stand watching as 173 German-made machines knit black sweaters for overseas buyers. Occasionally the workers step in to program designs or clean the machines, but otherwise there is little for humans to do.

It’s a big change from a few years ago, when hundreds of employees could be found standing over manual knitting stations for up to 10 hours a day. Mohammadi’s owners began phasing out such work in 2012, and by last year, the knitting process was fully automated. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Digitalisierung bedroht 3,4 Millionen Jobs

Posted by hkarner - 3. Februar 2018

Date: 02-02-2018

Bis 2022 könnte die Digitalisierung in Deutschland etwa 3,4 Millionen Arbeitsplätze kosten, das wäre jede zehnte Stelle. Das berichtet die „FAZ“. Jedes vierte Unternehmen sieht sogar seine Existenz bedroht.

Roboter arbeiten an einer Auto-Karosserie

Die deutsche Wirtschaft boomt, die Arbeitslosenquote ist auf ein Rekordtief gefallen und Unternehmen suchen händeringend nach Arbeitskräften. Das könnte sich einem Medienbericht zufolge bald ändern. In den kommenden fünf Jahren könnte die Digitalisierung in Deutschland 3,4 Millionen Stellen vernichten. Das geht aus einer Umfrage des IT-Verbands Bitkom hervor, die der „Frankfurter Allgemeinen Zeitung“ vorliegt.

Angesichts von aktuell knapp 33 Millionen sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten entspräche das mehr als jeder zehnten Stelle. Für die Umfrage wurden 500 deutsche Unternehmen mit mehr als 20 Mitarbeitern befragt. Demnach sieht sich jedes vierte Unternehmen durch die Digitalisierung sogar ganz in seiner Existenz bedroht.

Bitkom-Präsident Achim Berg kritisiert vor diesem Hintergrund die gegenwärtigen Koalitionsverhandlungen. Arzthonorare, Rentenniveau, Soli-Abschmelzung – „seltsam entrückt“ komme ihm das alles vor, sagte er der „FAZ“. Die Politik betreibe zum Thema Digitalisierung bislang nicht mehr als „Buzzword-Bingo“. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Every study we could find on what automation will do to jobs, in one chart

Posted by hkarner - 27. Januar 2018

 Who protects us from „such“ „experts“? (hfk)

Date: 26-01-2018
Source: Technology Review

There are about as many opinions as there are experts.

You’ve seen the headlines: “Robots Will Destroy Our Jobs—and We’re Not Ready for It.” “You Will Lose Your Job to a Robot—and Sooner Than You Think.” “Robots May Steal as Many as 800 Million Jobs in the Next 13 Years.”

Such stories are tempting to take at face value. Who wouldn’t want to know if their livelihood, or that of their children, will soon be in jeopardy?

Here’s the problem: the findings cited emanate from a wide array of studies released by companies, think tanks, and research institutions. And their prognostications are all over the map. They’re coming so fast and thick, in fact, that we here at MIT Technology Review decided to start keeping tabs on all the numbers different groups have come up with about predicted job losses (and some gains) at the hands of automation, robots, and AI. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Embracing the New Age of Automation

Posted by hkarner - 17. Januar 2018

Christopher Pissarides

Christopher Pissarides, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics.

Jacques Bughin

Jacques Bughin is a director of the McKinsey Global Institute and a senior partner at McKinsey & Company.

With rapid advances in automation and artificial intelligence in recent years, many are worried about a jobless future and sky-high levels of inequality. But the large-scale technologically driven shift currently underway should be welcomed, and its adverse effects should be managed with proactive policies to reinvest in workers.

LONDON – Ever since early-nineteenth-century textile workers destroyed the mechanical looms that threatened their livelihoods, debates over automation have conjured gloom-and-doom scenarios about the future of work. With another era of automation upon us, how nervous about the future of our own livelihoods should we be?

A recent report by the McKinsey Global Institute estimates that, depending on a country’s level of development, advances in automation will require 3-14% of workers worldwide to change occupations or upgrade their skills by the year 2030. Already, about 10% of all jobs in Europe have disappeared since 1990 during the first wave of routine-based technological change. And with advances in artificial intelligence (AI), which affects a broader range of tasks, that share could double in the coming years.

Historically, job displacement has occurred in waves, first with the structural shift from agriculture to manufacturing, and then with the move from manufacturing to services. But throughout that process, productivity gains have been reinvested to create new innovations, jobs, and industries, driving economic growth as older, less productive jobs are replaced with more advanced occupations. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The machine age is upon us. We must not let it grind society to pieces

Posted by hkarner - 30. Dezember 2017

Date: 29-12-2017
Source: The Guardian by Chuka Umunna

Chuka Umunna, the Labour MP for Streatham, is a former shadow business secretary

What good is glittering technology if it robs us of jobs and rips communities apart? We need to work out how humans will prosper in a world of robots.

We need to talk about work. The new machine age will transform our understanding of it. Work is the way we contribute to society, part of a reciprocal social contract – the giving of our effort and our taking when in need – that holds our society together. We work, we build our society, and we share in its prosperity.

But our social contract around work is broken. Back in the 1980s parts of our country were devastated by de-industrialisation. This wave of globalisation and the first fruits of technological innovation destroyed industrial jobs or exported them to low-wage economies.

The loss of work had a devastating impact. We must never forget the value of work because without it people are denied a sense of dignity and of community. When you lose work, the meaning and purpose of life are taken away from you, and isolation can set in. Research shows you are at greater risk of sickness, substance abuse and other challenges. Families can start breaking apart under the pressure, mental illness rises, and educational achievement collapses. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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UK’s poorest to fare worst in age of automation, thinktank warns

Posted by hkarner - 30. Dezember 2017

Date: 29-12-2017
Source: The Guardian

Machines threaten jobs generating £290bn in wages and could widen inequality gap, according to IPPR

The IPPR suggests factory workers are likely to be among those losing their jobs or facing fewer hours due to automation.

The rise of the machine economy risks social disruption by widening the gap between rich and poor in Britain, as automation threatens jobs generating £290bn in wages.

Jobs accounting for a third of annual pay in the UK risk being automated, according to the study by the IPPR thinktank. Warning that low-paid roles are in the greatest danger, it urged ministers to head off the prospect of rising inequality by helping people retrain and share in the benefits from advances in technology.

The study for the IPPR’s commission on economic justice, which features senior business and public figures including the archbishop of Canterbury, called on the government to take a greater role in managing the adoption of robotics, artificial intelligence and other methods of job automation in the workforce. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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