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Posts Tagged ‘Automation’

‘The Future of Work’ and ‘Human + Machine’ Review: Reckoning With the Robots

Posted by hkarner - 26. Juni 2018

Date: 25-06-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Automation rarely outright destroys jobs. It instead augments—taking over routine tasks while humans handle more complex ones. Oren Cass reviews “The Future of Work” by Darrell M. West and “Human + Machine” by Paul R. Daugherty and H. James Wilson.

‘The Future of Work’ and ‘Human + Machine’ Review: Reckoning With the Robots

Most Americans once survived hand to mouth, season to season. Technology (thankfully) destroyed their jobs. The result was not catastrophe but prosperity, because the dynamic lamented in modern parlance as “job destruction” is also called “productivity growth.” If farmers become 25% more productive, eight can grow a crop that previously required 10. The other two might still farm, yielding more or better food for the community. Or they might become barbers, allowing everyone to enjoy comparable food and the latest hairstyles.

The fear that superfluous workers might instead sit idle, reliant on support from their still-working neighbors, is a persistent one. Though such an outcome has never materialized, for prognosticators there is always a next time. In “The Future of Work,” Brookings Institution scholar Darrell West presents his version of a now-popular claim: that robotics and artificial intelligence really do make this time different.

Mr. West describes a future in which “older positions will be eliminated faster than new ones are created,” leaving “workers with few skills . . . unable to find jobs.” He warns of “social unrest” and the prospect of “dystopias that are chaotic, violent, and authoritarian in nature.” Accelerating technology requires us, he concludes, to “rethink the concept of work itself.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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The Fed Can’t Save Jobs From AI and Robots

Posted by hkarner - 12. Juni 2018

Date: 11-06-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Martin Feldstein

The central bank’s employment mandate can’t be squared with coming tech disruption.

The day is coming, experts tell us, when artificial intelligence and robotics will massively disrupt the labor market. Autonomous vehicles will put 3.5 million truck drivers at risk of losing their jobs. Checkout machines may replace 3.4 million retail cashiers. That is only the beginning of the long list of jobs that will be destroyed by technological change.

The shift will not happen all at once, and most of the people who lose their jobs will eventually find new employment. The benefits of automation will include lower production costs, which will increase real incomes and job-creating consumer demand. But the technology will also cause individual hardship and frequent periods of increased unemployment.

These large supply shocks cannot be offset by monetary policy. They therefore will present the Federal Reserve with a new challenge. In 1978 Congress gave the Fed a “dual mandate” of price stability and maximum employment. This distinguishes the Fed from the world’s other major central banks. The European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan, for example, are required to target only the rate of inflation (although they may informally pay attention to the level of employment). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Wenn der Roboter den Bankkunden hilft

Posted by hkarner - 26. Mai 2018

Bettina Pfluger, 25. Mai 2018, 12:00 derstandard.at

Roboter, künstliche Intelligenz und Livechat – wollen Banken am Ball bleiben und neue Zielgruppen erreichen, müssen sie mit der Zeit gehen

Stellen Sie sich vor, Sie gehen spätabends in ein Bankfoyer, um dort noch schnell Geldgeschäfte zu erledigen. Der Automat, den Sie bisher bedient haben, wurde neu designt und bietet nun mehr Services als früher. Sieht alles ein bisschen kompliziert aus. Jetzt heißt es: ja keinen Fehler machen, denn Personal, dem man jetzt noch Fragen stellen kann, ist keines mehr da. „In so einer Situation können Roboter den Mitarbeiter ersetzen“, sagt Martin Häring, Chief Marketing Officer (CMO) bei Finastra, einem Unternehmen für Finanzsoftware. Solche humanoiden Berater werden laut Häring die Mitarbeiter nicht bereits morgen ersetzt haben. Aber sie könnten außerhalb der Geschäftszeiten im Foyer stehen und dort für Hilfe sorgen. Dafür müssten sie nur noch stabiler werden, um gegen Vandalismus gefeit zu sein. Das alles kann in rund fünf Jahren so weit sein. „Die Roboter haben zudem eine Kamera in den Augen eingebaut mit Gesichts- und Mimikerkennung, daher könnten diese Roboter in einem geschützten Bereich im Foyer Kunden auch erkennen und ihnen ihren Kontostand sagen“, gibt Häring einen Einblick in die Bankwelt von morgen.

Digitale Bankenwelt

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Posted by hkarner - 25. Mai 2018

McKinsey Global Institute, May 2018

Automation and artificial intelligence (AI) are changing the nature of work. In this discussion paper, part of our ongoing research on the impact of technology on the economy, business, and society, we present new findings on the coming shifts in demand for workforce skills and how work is organized within companies, as people increasingly interact with machines in the workplace. We quantify time spent on 25 core workplace skills today and in the future for the United States and five European countries, with a particular focus on five sectors: banking and insurance, energy and mining, healthcare, manufacturing, and retail. Key findings:
Automation will accelerate the shift in required workforce skills we have seen over the past 15 years. Our research finds that the strongest growth in demand will be for technological skills, the smallest category today, which will rise by 55 percent and by 2030 will represent 17 percent of hours worked, up from 11 percent in 2016. This surge will affect demand for basic digital skills as well as advanced technological skills such as programming. Demand for social and emotional skills such as leadership and managing others will rise by 24 percent, to 22 percent of hours worked. Demand for higher cognitive skills will grow moderately overall, but will rise sharply for some of these skills, especially creativity.
Some skill categories will be less in demand. Basic cognitive skills, which include basic data input and processing, will decline by 15 percent, falling to 14 percent of hours worked from 18 percent. Demand for physical and manual skills, which include general equipment operation, will also drop, by 14 percent, but will remain the largest category of workforce skills in 2030 in many countries, accounting for 25 percent of the total hours worked. Skill shifts will play out differently across sectors. Healthcare, for example, will see a rising need for physical skills, even as demand for them declines in manufacturing and other sectors. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How the World’s Biggest Companies Are Fine-Tuning the Robot Revolution

Posted by hkarner - 15. Mai 2018

Date: 14-05-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By William Wilkes

Automation is leading to job growth in certain industries where machines take on repetitive tasks, freeing humans for more creative duties

ANSBACH, Germany—A few years ago, Roland Rösch’s job involved grabbing scalding-hot auto parts from an oven and inspecting them for signs they had failed a safety test.

These days he still inspects, but the grabbing is being done by Fritz, a robot that auto-parts manufacturer Robert Bosch GmbH installed three years ago at this German factory as part of an automation effort.

Fritz is more efficient at handling the dangerous and repetitive task of lifting the 8-inch metal-and-circuitry pieces out of the furnace. This leaves Mr. Rösch less exposed to potential accidents and gives him time to test 20% more parts than he did before the robots. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A study finds nearly half of jobs are vulnerable to automation

Posted by hkarner - 26. April 2018

Date: 24-04-2018
Source: The Economist

That could free people to pursue more interesting careers

A WAVE of automation anxiety has hit the West. Just try typing “Will machines…” into Google. An algorithm offers to complete the sentence with differing degrees of disquiet: “…take my job?”; “…take all jobs?”; “…replace humans?”; “…take over the world?”

Job-grabbing robots are no longer science fiction. In 2013 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne of Oxford University used—what else?—a machine-learning algorithm to assess how easily 702 different kinds of job in America could be automated. They concluded that fully 47% could be done by machines “over the next decade or two”.

A new working paper by the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries, employs a similar approach, looking at other developed economies. Its technique differs from Mr Frey and Mr Osborne’s study by assessing the automatability of each task within a given job, based on a survey of skills in 2015. Overall, the study finds that 14% of jobs across 32 countries are highly vulnerable, defined as having at least a 70% chance of automation. A further 32% were slightly less imperilled, with a probability between 50% and 70%. At current employment rates, that puts 210m jobs at risk across the 32 countries in the study.

https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/employment/automation-skills-use-and-training_2e2f4eea-en Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Us vs. Them’ Review: The Haves and Have-Nots

Posted by hkarner - 25. April 2018

Date: 24-04-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Spurred by the backlash against globalization, a foreign-affairs commentator offers a dark prognosis for the world and the future. Howard W. French reviews “Us vs. Them” by Ian Bremmer.

‘Us vs. Them’ Review: The Haves and Have-Nots

As anyone who has seen him on television as a global-affairs commentator is aware, Ian Bremmer is a confident man. His interview topics flit from one far-flung part of the world to another as he dispenses smart-sounding nuggets of geopolitical analysis with the rapidity of a chess grandmaster playing against amateurs. And he does this with a likeable mien and little hint of the arrogance one might expect from a person who, by the age of 30, had already built his own thriving political-risk consulting firm.

Early in “Us vs. Them: The Failure of Globalism,” readers learn a bit about where Mr. Bremmer’s self-assuredness comes from. Raised in a working-class neighborhood in the Boston area by a single mother who believed in him, he quickly came to believe in himself as well, winning a scholarship to college and later earning a Ph.D. at Stanford. “As a young adult,” Mr. Bremmer writes, “the American dream came wrapped in a package of ‘globalism,’ a belief in universal interdependence and international exchange that seemed to provide paths to prosperity for both the poor boy I was and the successful man I hoped to become.”

Those were the days. Mr. Bremmer has since grown increasingly pessimistic about globalization, not because he no longer approves of it but because of the mounting backlash against it. Now his outlook has become almost unreservedly dark. Everywhere he looks, the divide between the haves and have-nots is sharpening. He foresees a near future increasingly made up of societies at war with themselves, riven by tensions between prosperous elites and everyone else. Not only will the poor and middle classes fail to keep up, he argues, they will no longer believe that the elites have their interests at heart. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Automation and American Leadership

Posted by hkarner - 19. April 2018

Robert Skidelsky, Professor Emeritus of Political Economy at Warwick University and a fellow of the British Academy in history and economics, is a member of the British House of Lords. The author of a three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes, he began his political career in the Labour party, became the Conservative Party’s spokesman for Treasury affairs in the House of Lords, and was eventually forced out of the Conservative Party for his opposition to NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999.

In an era of rapid technological change, it is widely assumed that disruptions to labor markets are inevitable – and positive – indicators of a country’s international competitiveness. But should policymakers really use the economy to advance national power at the expense of the many people and regions left behind?

LONDON – Not so long ago, there were two competing explanations of unemployment. The first was the Keynesian theory of deficient demand, which holds that workers become unemployed “involuntarily” when their community lacks the money to buy the goods and services they produce. The second was the view often associated with the Chicago School, according to which unemployment is a voluntary choice of leisure over work at whatever the offered wage. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Automatisierung: Österreich bei gefährdeten Jobs im Mittelfeld

Posted by hkarner - 3. April 2018

3. April 2018, 17:43 derstandard.at

Hierzulande bestehe 49 Prozent Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass ein Job automatisiert wird, so eine Studie der OECD. In der Slowakei sind die Jobs am stärksten gefährdet

Wien – Österreich liegt im Mittelfeld von 32 untersuchten OECD-Ländern, wenn es um die Gefährdung von Arbeitsplätzen durch die zunehmende Automatisierung geht. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass ein Job automatisiert und verloren geht, liegt bei 49 Prozent. Am stärksten gefährdet ist die Slowakei mit 62 Prozent, am geringsten Neuseeland mit 39 Prozent. Der Durchschnitt liegt bei 48 Prozent. Laut der heute veröffentlichten OECD-Studie können rund 14 Prozent der Jobs in den untersuchten 32 Ländern relativ leicht automatisiert werden – die Wahrscheinlichkeit dafür liegt bei über 70 Prozent. Das entspricht über 66 Millionen Arbeitnehmern. Zusätzliche 32 Prozent der Jobs dürften bedeutenden Veränderungen unterworfen werden. Ein großer Teil der Aufgaben könnte automatisiert werden und damit die benötigten Anforderungen für diese Jobs verändern.

Industrie und Agrarwirtschaft besonders betroffen

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Why governments have overestimated the economic returns of higher education

Posted by hkarner - 4. März 2018

Date: 02-03-2018
Source: The Economist

Earning a degree is about signalling, and not just learning

AUTOMATION and globalisation have brought drastic changes to Western labour markets. Middle-skilled jobs are disappearing fast. In America, wages for blue-collar workers have been largely stagnant since the 1970s, whereas those for university graduates have soared. Silicon Valley types frequently warn that advances in technology, especially in artificial intelligence, will be devastating for low-skilled workers. One prominent study, by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne of Oxford University, estimated that 47% of jobs in America could be automated over the next two decades. The spectre of mass unemployment, along with increasing levels of income equality, has led many policymakers to see investment in university as crucial for economic prosperity.

Governments have plenty of reason to be bullish about higher education. Perhaps the best piece of evidence they have of the wisdom of investing more in universities is the graduate-wage premium—the difference in wages between those with university degrees and those without. In their book “The Race between Education and Technology”, Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz of Harvard University point out that this premium fell during the first half of the 20th century in America as universities expanded enrolment, but started rising sharply around 1980. Although the premium has started to level off in recent years, the fact that university graduates still make around 70% more than non-graduates suggests that demand for skilled workers still far exceeds supply. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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