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Posts Tagged ‘2020’

What Could Spoil 2020?

Posted by hkarner - 17. Januar 2020

Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0: The Birth of a New Economy in the Aftermath of Crisis, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.

The most probable scenario for the global economy and financial markets this year is fairly obvious: continued GDP growth, rock-bottom interest rates, and rising equity prices. It’s more useful to identify which unlikely events would alter this likely benign scenario – and consider how unlikely they really are.

LONDON – The traditional January game of economic forecasting for the year ahead hardly seems worth playing when the predictions have been the same for a decade. In 2020, it is even more likely than it has been every year since the financial crisis that the global economy will continue growing, interest rates will remain at rock-bottom levels, and stock markets will keep rising. 

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Today’s horrifying habits will be tomorrow’s taboos

Posted by hkarner - 8. Januar 2020

Date: 06‑01‑2020

Source: The Economist 2020 VISIONS

What beliefs and behaviours, commonplace today, will be condemned by future generations?

KIDS THESE days! Lamenting the loose morals and poor choices of the young is a timeless trope. They wear outrageous clothes! They listen to dreadful music! They have no respect for their elders! But inter‑generational criticism is a two‑way street: every generation also decries the unenlightened beliefs and behaviours of its elders. They owned slaves! They denied women the vote! They criminalised homosexuality! The nature of social change means that some beliefs and behaviours that are common today are sure to be considered unacceptable within a few decades. So what aspects of the world in 2020 will horrify future generations?

The most obvious candidate is failing to do more to combat climate change. Future generations will surely ask why, given the abundance of evidence of environmental harm, so little was done about it for so long. Elderly people in the 2050s may find themselves hiding the digital evidence of long‑haul air travel in their youth, and insisting that they only ever went on holiday by train. Even going on holiday at all may come to be seen as irresponsible and decadent at best, and immoral at worst. The ultimate form of ecotourism is to stay at home. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Tech Will Rule These ’20s, Too

Posted by hkarner - 7. Januar 2020

Date: 06‑01‑2020

Source: The Wall Street Journal By Andy Kessler

Breakthroughs in health and data could match the consumer boom of 100 years ago.

Does history rhyme? A century ago, the ’20s boomed, driven by consumer spending on homes, cars, radios and newfangled appliances like refrigerators, sewing machines and vacuum cleaners. Most Americans couldn’t afford the upfront cost of a lot of these goods, so manufacturers and retailers invented installment plans. Debt ruled as 75% of cars, furniture and washing machines were bought on credit.

The supply‑side policies of Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon, who pushed for tax cuts in 1921, 1924 and 1926, increased the capital available for new consumer businesses. The consumption boom also sparked a giant service industry: My grandfather ran Kessler’s Refrigeration Service in Brooklyn, N.Y. Lifestyle advertising was perfected on billboards and in tabloids, which, like today, led to complaints about ads’ ubiquity and influence.

And stocks were hot, hot, hot. Radio Corp. of America shares were worth $11 in 1924, $20 in January 1928 and $114 in 1929, with a peak price/earnings ratio of 72. Turns out equities could be bought on installment too—sometimes a margin loan with a measly 10% down payment.

Like the movie “Titanic,” you know how this ends. Speculation. Tariffs. And finally, the crash of Oct. 28‑29, where the market dropped 13% on Black Monday and 12% on Black Tuesday, triggering widespread margin calls for debt repayment. That risk is why the Federal Reserve now caps stock margins at 50%. According to legend, it’s also why windows in New York skyscrapers don’t open. By 1932, RCA stock was worth $3. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Where the migrants of 2020 will go

Posted by hkarner - 7. Januar 2020

Date: 06‑01‑2020

Source: The Economist

Migrants in 2020 will end up in poorer places

IN 2015 A RECORD number of migrants, hoping to escape violence and poverty, entered Europe illegally. Five years on, the picture will look very different. It is impossible to know how many people will migrate in 2020, but easier to predict where they will end up. America, Australia and EU countries have beefed up their borders, so relatively few would‑be migrants will be accepted compared with the numbers wanting to come. Instead, countries around the edges of the rich world (such as Egypt and Turkey), and ones farther away (such as Bangladesh and Colombia), have been taking in more.

Migrants out of sight will not be out of mind, however. Funding for border patrols in rich countries will rise, but not as steeply as funding to keep migrants from setting out in the first place. In the past five years, the European Union has pledged nearly 50 times more to discourage people from leaving poor countries—with aid, jobs and border surveillance—than to guard its own boundaries. Such programmes will grow and multiply in the year ahead. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A manager’s manifesto for 2020

Posted by hkarner - 7. Januar 2020

Date: 02‑01‑2020

Source: The Economist: Bartleby

Eight resolutions to adopt in the new year

The start of the year is traditionally the time to make resolutions to change your behaviour. Hardly anyone keeps them, of course, but in the spirit of optimism, here are Bartleby’s eight suggestions for what managers ought to resolve to do in 2020.

  1. Give out some praise. People don’t come to work just for the money. They like to feel they are making a valuable contribution. Praise doesn’t have to happen every day and it cannot be generic. Pick something specific that a worker has done which shows extra skill or effort and single them out; ideally so that others can hear the compliment. This is particularly important for the most junior employees, who will feel anxious about their status.
  1. Remember that you set the tone. If a manager is angry and swears a lot, that will be seen as acceptable behaviour. If bosses barely communicate, they are unlikely to receive useful feedback. If they fail to keep their promises, workers will be less likely to co‑operate. And if a manager frequently belittles a particular employee, that person is unlikely to get the respect of their colleagues. In contrast, a more relaxed, open boss is likely to lead to a relaxed, open workplace.

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Watch Out for These Science Events in 2020

Posted by hkarner - 3. Januar 2020

Date: 31‑12‑2019

Source: Scientific American By Davide Castelvecchi, Nature

A Mars invasion, a climate meeting and human–animal hybrids are set to shape the research agenda

2020 will see a veritable Mars invasion as several spacecraft, including three landers, head to the red planet. NASA will launch its Mars 2020 rover, which will stash rock samples that will be returned to Earth in a future mission and will also feature a small, detachable helicopter drone. China will send its first lander to Mars, Huoxing‑1, which will deploy a small rover. A Russian spacecraft will deliver a European Space Agency (ESA) rover to the red planet — if issues with the landing parachute can be resolved. And the United Arab Emirates will send an orbiter, in the first Mars mission by an Arab country.

Closer to home, China is planning to send the Chang’e‑5 sample‑return mission to the Moon. And elsewhere in the Solar System, Japan’s Hayabusa2 mission is due to return samples of the asteroid Ryugu to Earth, and NASA’s OSIRIS‑REx will bite off a chunk of its own asteroid, Bennu.

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Meeting Minutes 18-10-18

Posted by hkarner - 20. Oktober 2018

s. S.141-144, 276

Föhrenberg-Kreis Financial Economy III 18-10-18


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Wirtschaftspolitische Megatrends bis 2020 WAS IST IN DEN KOMMENDEN JAHREN ZU ERWARTEN?

Posted by hkarner - 13. August 2012

David Gregosz, Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, AUSGABE 106, August 2012. Dank an RB 

Es ist keine einfache Situation, in der sich die Welt am Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts befindet. Ökonomische Verwerfungen und ökologische Probleme fordern Entscheidungsträger auf dem gesamten Globus heraus. Schon heute ist absehbar, dass einige (wirtschafts-)politisch relevante Entwicklungen das nächste Jahrzehnt maßgeblich prägen werden. Das Papier soll als Diskussionsgrundlage einen Überblick darüber geben, welche Herausforderungen im kommenden Jahrzehnt absehbar sind. Notwendigerweise ist diese Auswahl selektiv. Die in Thesenform aufgezeigten Trends deuten mögliche Entfaltungslinien in der von Zufällen, Brüchen und Unvorhersehbarkeiten geprägten Zukunft an, die nicht notwendigerweise in dieser Form eintreten. Trotz dieser Einschränkung lohnt es sich, über die thematisierten Phänomene – Konsolidierungsdruck, neue Kraftzentren, Be-völkerungswachstum, Ressourcenverknappung und Digitalisierung – vertieft nachzudenken. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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