Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘2019’

Ein wirtschaftlich durchwachsenes Jahr 2019

Posted by hkarner - 11. Februar 2019

 

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

NEW YORK – Auf das synchronisierte globale Wirtschaftswachstum von 2017 folgte das asynchrone Wachstum des Jahres 2018, in dem, von den USA abgesehen, in den meisten Ländern Konjunkturabschwünge einsetzten. Sorgen über die US-Inflation, den geldpolitischen Kurs der US Federal Reserve, anhaltende Handelskriege, Italiens Haushalts- und Schuldenprobleme, den Konjunkturabschwung in China und die Anfälligkeiten der Schwellenmärkte führten am Jahresende zu steilen Kursrückgängen an den weltweiten Aktienmärkten.

Die gute Nachricht zu Beginn des Jahres 2019 ist, dass das Risiko einer unmittelbaren globalen Rezession niedrig ist. Die schlechte Nachricht ist, dass wir auf ein Jahr des synchronisierten globalen Abschwungs zusteuern; das Wirtschaftswachstum wird in den meisten Regionen in Richtung seines Potentials fallen und dieses in einigen Fällen noch unterschreiten. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Risks to the Global Economy in 2019

Posted by hkarner - 14. Januar 2019

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, his new book, The Curse of Cash, was released in August 2016.

Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change. They will include a growth recession in China, a rise in global long-term real interest rates, and a crescendo of populist economic policies.

CAMBRIDGE – As Mark Twain never said, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you think you know for sure that just ain’t so.” Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change. They will include a growth recession in China, a rise in global long-term real interest rates, and a crescendo of populist economic policies that undermine the credibility of central bank independence, resulting in higher interest rates on “safe” advanced-country government bonds.

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Shelter from the Storm in 2019

Posted by hkarner - 12. Januar 2019

Barry Eichengreen is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. His latest book is The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era.

In the coming year, global economic, financial, and political stability will depend on outcomes in four areas. And what happens on one front is likely to affect the prospects for positive outcomes on all the others.

BRUSSELS – What would have to happen for this to be a tranquil year economically, financially, and politically? Answer: a short list of threats to stability would have to be averted.

First, the trade war between the United States and China would have to be placed on hold. In November and December, financial markets reacted positively to each hint of a negotiated settlement and negatively to each mention of renewed hostilities – and for good reason: tariffs that disrupt trade flows and supply chains do global growth no good. And, as we know, what happens in financial markets doesn’t stay in financial markets: outcomes there powerfully affect consumer confidence and business sentiment.

Second, the US economy will have to grow by at least 2%, the consensus forecast incorporated into investor expectations. If growth comes in significantly lower – whether because the sugar high from the December 2017 tax cuts wears off, the Federal Reserve chokes off the expansion, or for some other reason – financial markets will move sharply downward, with negative implications for confidence and stability.

Third, China will have to avoid a significant intensification of its financial problems. Successfully managing a corporate-debt load of 160% of GDP requires not just selectively restructuring bad loans, but also increasing the denominator of the debt-to-GDP ratio. With infrastructure investment weak and manufacturing production declining, China is increasingly unlikely to achieve the authorities’ 2019 target of at least 6% growth. In that case, slow growth and mounting debt problems will feed on one another, dragging down economic performance in China and much of the emerging-market world.

Fourth, voters in the European Parliament election in May will have to prevent the victory of a right-wing nationalist majority hostile to European integration. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Five emerging cyber-threats to worry about in 2019

Posted by hkarner - 11. Januar 2019

Date: 10-01-2019
Source: Technology Review

The risks include AI-powered deepfake videos and the hacking of blockchain-powered smart contracts.

Last year was full of cybersecurity disasters, from the revelation of security flaws in billions of microchips to massive data breaches and attacks using malicious software that locks down computer systems until a ransom is paid, usually in the form of an untraceable digital currency.

We’re going to see more mega-breaches and ransomware attacks in 2019. Planning to deal with these and other established risks, like threats to web-connected consumer devices and critical infrastructure such as electrical grids and transport systems, will be a top priority for security teams. But cyber-defenders should be paying attention to new threats, too. Here are some that should be on watch lists: Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Seven ways technology will change in 2019

Posted by hkarner - 7. Januar 2019

Date: 05-01-2019
Source: The Guardian

App stores, Facebook, smartphone photography, even USB cables – they are all facing disruption this year

Facebook is in trouble after the UK parliament released its internal emails.

1 Silicon Valley’s cold war with the EU heats up

At the beginning of 2019, as at the start of 2018, Margrethe Vestager remains the most powerful woman in tech. The EU competition commissioner has the world’s biggest companies walking on tiptoe, afraid of her habit of enforcing competition law where the US authorities have refused to do so.

In 2018, Google was the subject of Vestager’s cold gaze, receiving multibillion fines for its anti-competitive practices around its Android operating system, its shopping service and Chrome browser. But in 2019, it’s likely to be someone else’s turn. The only question is who.

In the US, Amazon has been the odds-on favourite, thanks to a combination of a hostile president, a direct negative effect on commercial competitors and the rise of the doctrine of “hipster antitrust” (broadly arguing that monopolies can be harmful even if consumer welfare appears to be boosted). But in the EU, with a greater focus on privacy and data protection issues, Facebook looks vulnerable. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , | Leave a Comment »

A Thimbleful of Optimism for 2019

Posted by hkarner - 3. Januar 2019

Kaushik Basu, former Chief Economist of the World Bank, is Professor of Economics at Cornell University and Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Amid today’s global conflicts, debasement of public debate, attacks on democratic institutions, and escalating geopolitical tensions, it is hard to find much cause for hope. But it is still possible to restore faith in our shared humanity.

KOLKATA – At the end of this year of political trauma and conflict, I found myself feeling an unexpected sense of hope, sitting in Mumbai, where I could see the Arabian Sea stretching westward toward the Gulf of Aden and Africa, as well as the vast Indian subcontinent extending eastward to the Bay of Bengal and the lands beyond.

To be sure, one must not gloss over the ongoing catastrophes of 2018. In Yemen, millions of civilians, including children, are suffering starvation and indiscriminate violence. On the southern border of the United States, refugees fleeing misery and conflict don’t know if they will be met with sanctuary or bolted gates and tear gas. Around the world, hyper-nationalist politicians and egomaniacs are launching trade wars, stoking hatred, and veering toward fascism. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , | Leave a Comment »

The fastest growers and biggest shrinkers of 2019

Posted by hkarner - 3. Januar 2019

Date: 02-01-2019
Source: The Economist

Economic forecasts for the coming year

MARKETS ACT. They don’t stop to explain. But the rotten performance of stockmarkets last year, which has been maintained at the start of this one, can be traced in part to growing worry about the state of the world economy, and to its two biggest economies in particular.

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), our sister company, America will grow by 2.3% this year. That is substantially down on an estimated growth rate of 2.9% for last year, as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy and as the effects of last year’s tax cuts ebb. China’s forecast growth rate is much higher, at 6.3%, but that is still down on its estimated 2018 performance—and plenty fear worse because of the trade war with America and China’s campaign to rein in debt.

Europe presents a gloomier picture still. Britain, which is due to leave the European Union in March, is forecast to grow by a tepid 1.5%; France faces less uncertainty but fares no better. Italy, a perennial economic disappointment, is tipped to notch up growth of just 0.4%. That makes it the seventh-worst performer in the EIU’s table of forecasts. Those below it are all forecast to contract in 2019, none more precipitously than Venezuela, which has been in freefall for years. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , | Leave a Comment »

In 1983, Isaac Asimov predicted the world of 2019.

Posted by hkarner - 1. Januar 2019

Date: 31-12-2018
Source: bigthink.com

Here’s what he got right (and wrong).

Some of them were surprisingly astute.

In 1983, the Toronto Star asked science fiction writer Isaac Asimov to predict what the world would be like in 2019.

His predictions about computerization were mostly accurate, though some of his forecasts about education and space utilization were overly optimistic.

Asimov’s predictions highlight just how difficult it is to predict the future of technology.

Isaac Asimov was one the world’s most celebrated and prolific science fiction writers, having written or edited more than 500 books over his four-decade career. The Russian-born writer was famous for penning hard science fiction in his books, such as that in I, Robot, Foundation and Nightfall. Naturally, his work contained many predictions about the future of society and technology.

Some of those predictions came true, such as our ability to use what he called sight-sound communication to contact anyone on Earth. But others — a machine that can convert yeast, algae and water into foods like „mock-turkey,“ for instance — never manifested.

In 1983, the Toronto Star invited Asimov to predict the answer to a specific question: „What will the world look like in 2019?“ It was a fitting time to pose the question, the Star’s editors figured, because 1983 was 35 years after George Orwell penned 1984. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Tech That Will Change Your Life in 2019

Posted by hkarner - 1. Januar 2019

Date: 30-12-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

From delivery wagons and foldable phones to privacy crackdowns and corporate health tracking, the coming year will make good on some of the tech industry’s biggest promises

There aren’t many ways 2018 could have gone worse for the tech industry. It felt like every week, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and friends were apologizing for some major privacy blunder or platform manipulation. Self-driving cars proved they weren’t ready to hit the road and Elon Musk nearly self-destructed on Twitter. Electric scooters swarmed cities only to be vandalized in droves. Tech-stock peaks gave way to market tumbles.

The coming year brings the cleanup and a return to the optimism that technology is really good for the world. By that of course we mean finally playing the much hyped, much delayed Harry Potter augmented-reality game. Also eagerly awaited: 5G arriving in cities, Apple’s iOS getting a facelift and Disney launching its own streaming service. We’re predicting a year of fulfilled promises—including a possibly forced change in companies’ data-collection practices.

Here’s our annual roundup of the tech that will affect us in the year ahead. Our track record is pretty good, so you’ll want to pay attention. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , | Leave a Comment »